Do populismo às bandas cambiais: a evolução da política cambial no Chile de 1970 a 1999

We discuss in this paper the evolution of exchange rate policy in Chile since the seventies, with special attention to overvaluation and undervaluation cycles. Following a recent literature that argues in favor of competitive currencies as part of a development strategy, we argue that the Chilean exchange rate policy in the years that go from 1984 until 1999 were very important to its growth results. Chile even managed to go through the nineties without a major external crisis, especially when compared to its Latin American neighbors. We argue here that the exchange rate crawling band adopted in the middle eighties and nineties was important for its growth strategy.

Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.

Desindustrialização: conceituação, causas, efeitos e o caso brasileiro

De-Industrialization: concept, causes, effects and the Brazilian case. This article aims to do a theoretical discussion about the term "de-industrialization" and its relationship with other concepts as "primarization" of exports and "Dutch disease". After that we will analyze the possible causes and effects of "de-industrialization". Finally, we analyze the Brazilian case, with a special attention over the economic literature about this issue.

A economia brasileira puxada pela demanda agregada

The Brazilian economy pulled by the aggregate demand. This article aims to present the demand-led growth theory and some empirical evidences for a demand-led growth regime in Brazil. First of all, we will do a brief review of the theory of demand led-growth, based in the seminal work of Kaldor (1988), for whom long-run growth is determined by the growth rate of consumption expenditures and the growth rate of exports. Based in the empirical methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), we run some econometric tests for the hypothesis of demand-led growth for Brazilian economy. The results of such tests shown that near of 85% of GDP growth in Brazil in the period 1991-2005 is explained by variables at the demand side of the economy. Besides that, based in the methodology developed by Ledesma and Thirwall (2002), we shown that natural rate of growth for Brazilian economy is endogenous, increasing during boom times. This means that appears to be no restrictions in the supply side of the economy for a faster growth of Brazilian economy. Finally, we argue that a necessary condition for a sustained growth of Brazilian economy is the adoption of a export-led growth model. For such it is necessary to put an end on the actual over-valuation of real exchange rate.

Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento

Structuralist development macroeconomics. This paper presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics (the tendencies to the overvaluation of the exchange rate and the tendency of wages to grow below productivity, the critique of growth with foreign savings, and a new model of the Dutch disease) that complement and actualize the thought of the Latin-American structuralist school that developed around ECLAC from the late 1940s to the 1960s. On the other hand, it suggests that a new national development strategy based on the experience of fast growing Asian countries is emerging; and argues that only the countries that adopt such strategy based on growth with domestic savings, fiscal and foreign trade responsibility and a competitive exchange rate will be able to catch up.

The real mechanisms of the global economy

The paper presents the main arguments of Bresser Pereira's Globalization and Competition. Development strategies based on the 'conventional orthodoxy' are shown to carry serious drawbacks ("Dutch disease", pernicious effects of external saving, currency overvaluation), while a 'new developmentalism' is promoted, in spite of the widespread belief that the nation-states have been dispossessed of their room for manoeuvre because of the globalization process. The "new developmentalism" is based on domestic finance, balanced public budgets, moderate interest rates and competitiveness policies aimed at neutralizing the tendency to exchange rate overappreciation. The paper also points out a few theoretical questions the book raises.

An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics

This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.

Taxa de câmbio real e crescimento econômico: uma comparação entre economias emergentes e desenvolvidas

Real exchange rate and economic growth: a comparison between emerging and developed economies. This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate. The article presents the results generated by a dynamic panel that tested the relationship of economic growth with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the choice of exchange rate regime from 26 countries, 13 emerging and 13 developed. The results suggest that the level of the exchange rate and volatility are relevant for growth. Finally, the paper stresses that there are important differences when comparing developed and emerging economies.

Taxa real de câmbio, desalinhamento cambial e crescimento econômico no Brasil (1994-2007)

Real exchange rate, exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Brazil: 1994-2007. In this article we argue that the Brazilian economy presented in the period 1994-2007 a tendency of real exchange rate appreciation with respect to its equilibrium value, mainly from 2005. This exchange rate misalignment has worked to reduce the growth of Brazilian economy and is the root of the re-emergence of current account deficits.

Metas de inflação, taxa de câmbio real e crise externa num modelo kaleckiano

Inflation target, real exchange rate and external crisis in a Kaleckian model. Which role should the real exchange rate play in an inflation target regime? In this paper this point is discussed from the point of view of the conditions required for avoiding an external crisis. With this objective, a dynamic Kaleckian model is presented focusing on the stability of the external debt to capital ratio. The main conclusion is that policy makers should monitor closely the evolution of the real exchange rate in order to make compatible the inflation target regime with external stability.

Liberalização financeira, estabilidade macroeconômica e crescimento econômico nos países do BRIC

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate regime, capital account convertibility and economic growth in 1990-2007 period within the emerging countries that constitute what has been called BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China. Our hypothesis is that economic performance of these countries is the result, at least partially, of the quality of the macroeconomic policy management adopted in each country, in which exchange rate policy, capital account convertibility and the degree of external vulnerability plays a key role.

Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease) shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.

Brazil as an emerging economy: a new economic miracle?

This article shows that abundant resources and blind faith in an optimistic future cannot result in sustainable growth in Brazil. There are great deficiencies in various areas which make sustained high growth rates almost impossible to achieve, such as the low investment ratio, deficiencies in creating human capital, high interest rates leading to an uncompetitive exchange rate and a lack of infrastructural development.

Regime cambial e mudança estrutural na indústria de transformação brasileira: evidências para o período (1994-2008)

Exchange rate regime and structural changes in the Brazilian manufacturing industry. This article proposes an analysis of the relationship between exchange rate regime and evolution of the Brazilian manufacturing industry during the period 1980-2008. Its main purpose is to detect the direction of the structural changes imposed by the new form of international insertion consolidated throughout the 1990s. The work also provides new empirical evidence regarding the assumptions of deindustrialization and "Dutch disease", which mark the current debate on the effects of the appreciation of real exchange rate in the Brazilian economy.

A graphic explanation on how a tax on exports neutralizes the Dutch disease without costs to exporters

The adequate way of neutralizing the Dutch disease is the imposition of a variable tax on the export of the commodity that originates the disease. If such tax is equivalent to the "size" of the Dutch disease, it will shifts to the right its supply curve of the commodity in relation to the exchange rate, giving the existing domestic supply and the international demand, the exchange rate will depreciate at the value of the tax, and the equilibrium exchange rate will move from the "current" to the "industrial" equilibrium.