Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting

This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk are assessed under two monetary regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). These effects differ because IT implies base-level drift in the price level, while PT makes the price level stationary around a target price path. Under IT, the welfare cost of long run inflation risk is equal to 0.35 percent of aggregate consumption. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, it is lowered to only 0.01 per cent. There are welfare gains from PT because it raises average consumption for the young and lowers consumption risk substantially for the old. These results are strongly robust to changes in the PT target horizon and fairly robust to imperfect credibility, fiscal policy, and model calibration. While the distributional effects of an unexpected transition to PT are sizeable, they are short-lived and not welfare-reducing.

Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

The thermal stability of yellow fever vaccines

The assessment of yellow fever vaccine thermostability both in lyophilized form and after reconstitution were analyzed. Two commercial yellow fever vaccines were assayed for their thermal stability. Vaccines were exposed to test temperatures in the range of 8 (graus) C to 45 (graus) C. Residual infectivity was measured by a plaque assay using Vero cells. The titre values were used in an accelerated degradation test that follows the Arrhenius equation and the minimum immunizing dose was assumed to be 10 (ao cubo) particles forming unit (pfu)/dose. Some of the most relevant results include that (i) regular culture medium show the same degradation pattern of a reconstituted 17D-204 vaccine; (ii) reconstituted YF-17D-204 showed a predictable half life of more than six days if kept at 0 (graus) C; (iii) there are differences in thermostability between different products that are probably due to both presence of stabilizers in the preparation and the modernization in the vaccine production; (iv) it is important to establish a proper correlation between the mouse infectivity test and the plaque assay since the last appears to be more simple, economical, and practical for small laboratories to assess the potency of the vaccine, and (v) the accelerated degradation test appears to be the best procedure to quantify the thermostability of biological products.

Stability of isoenzyme and kinetoplast DNA (k-DNA) patterns in successively cloned Trypanosoma cruzi populations

Four Trypanosoma cruzi strains from zymodermes A, B, C and D were successively clonedon BHI-LIT-agar-blood BLAB). Twenty clones from the first generation (F1), 10 from The second (F2) and 4 from the third (F3) from the strains A138, B147 and C23 were isolated. The D150 strain provied 29 F1 and F2 clones. The strains and clones had their isoenzyme and K-DNA patterns determined. The clones from A138, Bl47 and C231 strains presented isoemzyme and K-DNA patterns identical between thewmselves and their respective parental strains. Therefore showing the homogenety and stability of isoenzyme and K-DNA patterns after successive cloning. The Dl50 strain from zymodeme D (ZD) showed heterogeneity. Twenty-eight out of 29 clones of the first generation were of zymodeme A and only one was of zymodeme C, confirming previous reports that ZD strains consisted of ZA and ZC parasite populations. The only D150 strain clone of zymodeme C showed a K-DNA pattern identical to its parental strain. The remining clones although similar among themselves were different from the parental strain. Thus the T. cruzi strains had either homonogeneus or heterogeneous populations. The clones produced by successive cloning provided genetically homonogeous populations. Their experimental use will make future results more reliable and reproducible.

The Causal effect of education on aggregate income

Empirical studies assume that the macro Mincer return on schooling is con- stant across countries. Using a large sample of countries this paper shows that countries with a better quality of education have on average relatively higher macro Mincer coeficients. As rich countries have on average better educational quality, differences in human capital between countries are larger than has been typically assumed in the development accounting literature. Consequently, factor accumulation explains a considerably larger share of income differences across countries than what is usually found.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Three-dimensional slope stability analysis of South Peak, Crowsnest Pass, Alberta, Canada

South Peak is a 7-Mm3 potentially unstable rock mass located adjacent to the 1903 Frank Slide on Turtle Mountain, Alberta. This paper presents three-dimensional numerical rock slope stability models and compares them with a previous conceptual slope instability model based on discontinuity surfaces identified using an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model (DEM). Rock mass conditions at South Peak are described using the Geological Strength Index and point load tests, whilst the mean discontinuity set orientations and characteristics are based on approximately 500 field measurements. A kinematic analysis was first conducted to evaluate probable simple discontinuity-controlled failure modes. The potential for wedge failure was further assessed by considering the orientation of wedge intersections over the airborne LiDAR DEM and through a limit equilibrium combination analysis. Block theory was used to evaluate the finiteness and removability of blocks in the rock mass. Finally, the complex interaction between discontinuity sets and the topography within South Peak was investigated through three-dimensional distinct element models using the code 3DEC. The influence of individual discontinuity sets, scale effects, friction angle and the persistence along the discontinuity surfaces on the slope stability conditions were all investigated using this code.

Gains from switching and evolutionary stability in multi-player matrix games.

In this paper we unify, simplify, and extend previous work on the evolutionary dynamics of symmetric N-player matrix games with two pure strategies. In such games, gains from switching strategies depend, in general, on how many other individuals in the group play a given strategy. As a consequence, the gain function determining the gradient of selection can be a polynomial of degree N-1. In order to deal with the intricacy of the resulting evolutionary dynamics, we make use of the theory of polynomials in Bernstein form. This theory implies a tight link between the sign pattern of the gains from switching on the one hand and the number and stability of the rest points of the replicator dynamics on the other hand. While this relationship is a general one, it is most informative if gains from switching have at most two sign changes, as is the case for most multi-player matrix games considered in the literature. We demonstrate that previous results for public goods games are easily recovered and extended using this observation. Further examples illustrate how focusing on the sign pattern of the gains from switching obviates the need for a more involved analysis.

Generic super-exponential stability of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems

In this article, we consider solutions starting close to some linearly stable invariant tori in an analytic Hamiltonian system and we prove results of stability for a super-exponentially long interval of time, under generic conditions. The proof combines classical Birkhoff normal forms and a new method to obtain generic Nekhoroshev estimates developed by the author and L. Niederman in another paper. We will mainly focus on the neighbourhood of elliptic fixed points, the other cases being completely similar.

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LIDAR data

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.

Aggregate cultures of foetal rat liver cells: development and maintenance of liver gene expression.

Rotation-mediated aggregate cultures of foetal rat liver cells were prepared and grown in a chemically defined medium. Their capacity for cellular organisation and maturation was studied over a culture period of 3 wk by using both morphologic and biochemical criteria. It was found that within each aggregate, distinct liver cell types were present and attained their normal, differentiated phenotype. Parenchymal cells formed small acini with a central lumen. Within the first 2 wk in culture, albumin and ferritin mRNA levels were maintained, while the alpha-fetoprotein mRNA levels decreased, and tyrosine aminotransferase (TAT) gene expression increased. No significant response to glucocorticoids was observed in early cultures, whereas after 3 wk a marked increase in TAT mRNA levels was elicited by dexamethasone and glucagon (additive stimulatory effects). The results show that foetal rat liver cells cultured in a chemically defined medium are able to rearrange themselves into histotypic structures, and display a developmental pattern of gene expression comparable to that of perinatal rat liver in vivo. This culture system offers therefore a useful model to study the development and function of liver cells.

Dimensionality of drinking consequences - cross-cultural comparability and stability over time

Despite the long tradition for asking about the negative social and health consequences of alcohol consumption in surveys, little is known about the dimensionality of these consequences. Analysing cross-sectional and longitudinal data from the Nordic Taxation Study collected for Sweden, Finland, and Denmark in two waves in 2003 and 2004 by means of an explorative principal component analysis for categorical data (CATPCA), it is tested whether consequences have a single underlying dimension across cultures. It further tests the reliability, replicability, concurrent and predictive validity of the consequence scales. A one-dimensional solution was commonly preferable. Whereas the two-dimensional solution was unable to distinguish clearly between different concepts of consequences, the one-dimensional solution resulted in interpretable, generally very stable scales within countries across different samples and time.

DETERMINATION OF CELL-SPECIFIC NEUROTOXICITY OF MALONATE, METHYLMALONATE AND PROPIONATE IN A 3D RAT BRAIN CELL AGGREGATE SYSTEM

Malonate, methylmalonate and propionate are potentially neurotoxic metabolites in branched-chain organic acidurias. Their effects were tested on cultured 3D rat brain cell aggregates, using dosages of 0.1, 1.0 and 10.0 mM with a short but intense (twice a day over 3 days) and a longer but less intense treatment (every 3 rdday over 9 days). CNS cell-specific immunohistochemical stainings allowed the follow-up of neurons (axons, phosphorylated medium-weight neurofilament), astrocytes (glial fibrillary acidic protein) and oligodendrocytes (myelin basic protein). Methylmalonate and malonate were quantified by tandem mass spectrometry. Tandem mass spectrometry analysis of harvested brain cell aggregates revealed clear intracellular accumulation of methylmalonate and malonate. In immunohistochemical stainings oligodendrocytes appeared the most affected brain cells. The MBP signal disappeared already at 0.1 mM treatment with each metabolite. Mature astrocytes were not affected by propionate, while immature astrocytes on intense treatment with propionate developed cell swelling. 1 mM methylmalonate induced cell swelling of both immature and mature astrocytes , while 1 mM malonate only affected mature astrocytes. Neurons were not affected by methylmalonate, but 10.0 mM malonate on less intense treatment and 0.1, 1.0 and 10.0 mM propionate on intense treatment affected axonal growth. Our study shows significant uptake and deleterious effects of these metabolites on brain cells, principally on astrocytes and oligodendrocytes. This may be explained by the absence of the pathway in glial cells, which thus are not able to degrade these metabolites. Further studies are ongoing to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the observed neurotoxic effects.