A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

'It's Africa. It's Arizona. It's Antarctica. It's Afghanistan. Actually, it's Alberta' : Marketing locations to film producers

This chapter begins by outlining the dynamics of contemporary international film production and the inherent tension between ‘design interest’ and ‘location interest’. A history of the promotion of particular places as filmmaking locations (including Hollywood) is presented, prior to the establishment of the first film commissions. The creation of international associations and their role in professionalization, norm setting and the standardization of offerings and activities, is then described. The chapter concludes with a discussion of commissions’ work, the emergent discourse of ‘film friendliness,’ and the differences between location marketing and other kinds of destination marketing.

The largest admitted IT project failure in the Southern Hemisphere: A teaching case

The Queensland Health implementation project failure is the largest IS failure in the southern hemisphere to date, costing $1.25 billion AUD. This case highlights the importance of systematically analysing project failure. It examines the case organization details, royal commission report, auditor general report and 118 witness statements pertaining to the Queensland Health implementation project. The objective of this teaching case is (1) to illustrate the factors that contributed to Queensland Health's disastrous implementation project and (2) to understand the broader applications of this project failure on state and national legislations as well as industry sectors. The case narrative and teaching notes are appropriate for both undergraduate and postgraduate students studying IS and project management subjects.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to childhood and maternal undernutrition in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the disease burden attributable to being underweight as an indicator of undernutrition in children under 5 years of age and in pregnant women for the year 2000. DESIGN World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. The 1999 National Food Consumption Survey prevalence of underweight classified in three low weight-for-age categories was compared with standard growth charts to estimate population-attributable fractions for mortality and morbidity outcomes, based on increased risk for each category and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for South Africa in 2000. Maternal underweight, leading to an increased risk of intra-uterine growth retardation and further risk of low birth weight (LBW), was also assessed using the approach adopted by the global assessment. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years of age and pregnant women. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from protein- energy malnutrition and a fraction of those from diarrhoeal disease, pneumonia, malaria, other non- HIV/AIDS infectious and parasitic conditions in children aged 0 - 4 years, and LBW. RESULTS Among children under 5 years, 11.8% were underweight. In the same age group, 11,808 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 11,100 - 12,642) or 12.3% (95% uncertainty interval 11.5 - 13.1%) were attributable to being underweight. Protein-energy malnutrition contributed 44.7% and diarrhoeal disease 29.6% of the total attributable burden. Childhood and maternal underweight accounted for 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 - 2.9%) of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000 and 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval 10.2 - 11.5%) of DALYs in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that reduction of the occurrence of underweight would have a substantial impact on child mortality, and also highlights the need to monitor this important indicator of child health.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to diabetes in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the burden of disease attributable to diabetes by sex and age group in South Africa in 2000. DESIGN The framework adopted for the most recent World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies used to derive the prevalence of diabetes by population group were weighted proportionately for a national estimate. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Adults 30 years and older. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and renal failure. RESULTS Of South Africans aged >or= 30 years, 5.5% had diabetes which increased with age. Overall, about 14% of IHD, 10% of stroke, 12% of hypertensive disease and 12% of renal disease burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to diabetes. Diabetes was estimated to have caused 22,412 (95% uncertainty interval 20,755 - 24,872) or 4.3% (95% uncertainty interval 4.0 - 4.8%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most of these occurred in middle or old age, the loss of healthy life years comprises a smaller proportion of the total 258,028 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 236,856 - 290,849) in South Africa in 2000, accounting for 1.6% (95% uncertainty interval 1.5 - 1.8%) of the total burden. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes is an important direct and indirect cause of burden in South Africa. Primary prevention of the disease through multi-level interventions and improved management at primary health care level are needed.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to iron deficiency anaemia in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the extent of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) among children aged 0 - 4 years and pregnant women aged 15 - 49 years, and the burden of disease attributed to IDA in South Africa in 2000. DESIGN The comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization (WHO) was followed using local prevalence and burden estimates. IDA prevalence came from re-analysis of the South African Vitamin A Consultative Group study in the case of the children, and from a pooled estimate from several studies in the case of the pregnant women (haemoglobin level < 11 g/dl and ferritin level < 12 microg/l). Monte Carlo simulation-modelling was used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years and pregnant women 15 - 49 years. OUTCOME MEASURES Direct sequelae of IDA, maternal and perinatal deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from mild mental disability related to IDA. Results. It is estimated that 5.1% of children and 9 - 12% of pregnant women had IDA and that about 7.3% of perinatal deaths and 4.9% of maternal deaths were attributed to IDA in 2000. Overall, about 174,976 (95% uncertainty interval 150,344 - 203,961) healthy years of life lost (YLLs), or between 0.9% and 1.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000, were attributable to IDA. CONCLUSIONS This first study in South Africa to quantify the burden from IDA suggests that it is a less serious public health problem in South Africa than in many other developing countries. Nevertheless, this burden is preventable, and the study highlights the need to disseminate the food-based dietary guidelines formulated by the National Department of Health to people who need them and to monitor the impact of the food fortification programme.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Theorising South Africa's corporate governance

South Africa’s principal corporate governance report aspires to an ‘inclusive’ approach to corporate governance, in which companies are clearly advised to consider the interests of a variety of stakeholders. Yet, in common with many other countries, there is little discussion of the theoretical foundations and assumptions implicit in the recommended approach to corporate governance. The purpose of this article is to provide an analysis of corporate governance and the corporate environment in South Africa in terms of existing theory and models of corporate governance, and to provide a critique based on a consideration of traditional African values and the socio-economic necessities of post-apartheid South Africa. The result is the identification of an incompatibility between the current corporate environment in South Africa and the given exposition of African values. Some prospects for change are then identified.

The Jean Chretien Pledge to Africa act: Patent law and humanitarian aid

This article evaluates the implementation of the WTO General Council Decision in 2003, which resolved that developed nations could export patented pharmaceutical drugs to member states in order to address public health issues - such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other epidemics. The Jean Chretien Pledge to Africa Act 2004 (Canada) provides authorisation for the export of pharmaceutical drugs from Canada to developing countries to address public health epidemics. The European Union has issued draft regulations governing the export of pharmaceutical drugs. A number of European countries - including Norway, the Netherlands, France, and Switzerland - are seeking to pass domestic legislation to give force to the WTO General Council Decision. Australia has shown little initiative in seeking to implement such international agreements dealing with access to essential medicines. It is argued that Australia should implement humanitarian legislation to embody the WTO General Council Decision, emulating models in Canada, Norway, and the European Union. Ideally, there should be no right of first refusal; the list of pharmaceutical drugs should be open-ended; and the eligible importing countries should not be limited to members of the WTO.

Mid-Holocene Aboriginal occupation of offshore islands in northern Australia? A reassessment of Wurdukanhan, Mornington Island, southern Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Claims for mid-Holocene Aboriginal occupation at the shell matrix site of Wurdukanhan, Mornington Island, Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia, are reassessed through an analysis of the excavated assemblage coupled with new surveys and an extensive dating program. Memmott et al. (2006, pp. 38, 39) reported basal ages of c.5000–5500 years from Wurdukanhan as 'the oldest date yet obtained for any archaeological site on the coast of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria' and used these dates to argue for 'a relatively lengthy occupation since at least the mid-Holocene'. If substantiated, with the exception of western Torres Strait, these claims make Mornington Island the only offshore island used across northern Australia in the mid-Holocene where it is conventionally thought that Aboriginal people only (re)colonised islands after sea-level maximum was achieved after the mid-Holocene. Our analysis of Wurdukanhan demonstrates high shellfish taxa diversity, high rates of natural shell predation and high densities of foraminifera throughout the deposit demonstrating a natural origin for the assemblage. Results are considered in the context of other dated shell matrix sites in the area and a geomorphological model for landscape development of the Sandalwood River catchment.

Deltaic urbanism for living with flooding in Southern Vietnam

Waterfront communities in the Mekong Delta live with the inundation of their homes and businesses from seasonal flooding every year. This project investigated housing types, social practices and feelings of vulnerability of local people in the Cai Rang waterfront community in Can Tho City. The project made a significant contribution to methods for assessing vulnerability, adaptability and resilience of inhabitants of flood-prone housing in Vietnam. It also developed a new concept of 'Deltaic Urbanism' that offers a better urbanist approach specifically for deltaic regions subject to the potential impacts of climate change.

Southern criminology

Issues of vital criminological research and policy significance abound in the global South, with important implications for South/North relations and for global security and justice. Having a theoretical framework capable of appreciating the significance of this global dynamic will contribute to criminology being able to better understand the challenges of the present and the future. We employ southern theory in a reflexive (and not a reductive) way to elucidate the power relations embedded in the hierarchal production of criminological knowledge that privileges theories, assumptions and methods based largely on empirical specificities of the global North. Our purpose is not to dismiss the conceptual and empirical advances in criminology, but to more usefully de-colonize and democratize the toolbox of available criminological concepts, theories and methods. As a way of illustrating how southern criminology might usefully contribute to better informed responses to global justice and security, this article examines three distinct projects that could be developed under such a rubric. These include, firstly, certain forms and patterns of crime specific to the global periphery; secondly, the distinctive patterns of gender and crime in the global south shaped by diverse cultural, social, religious and political factors and lastly the distinctive historical and contemporary penalities of the global south and their historical links with colonialism and empire building.

Phylogeographical relationships of Sicilian brown trout and the effects of genetic introgression on morphospace occupation

Genetic introgression of aquaculture stocks in local forms is well documented in many fish species but their evolutionary consequences for the local populations have not been thoroughly explored. Due to its wide geographical range, the existence of many locally adapted forms and the frequent occurrence of introgression of aquaculture stocks in local forms, brown trout represents the ideal system to study the effects of such introgressions. Here, we focus on a group of rivers and streams in Sicily (Italy), and, by using molecular tools, we show that autochthonous populations are probably derived from the Southern Atlantic clade, which is present in the Iberian peninsula and North Africa. Three out of the four studied rivers reveal signs of genetic introgression of domestic stocks. Finally, by using advanced geometric morphometric analyses, we show that genetic introgression produces a higher degree of morphological variability relative to that observed in non-introgressed populations.

Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit

South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.