Projection Par La Microsimulation de La Population Active Cap-Vert (2000-2025)

À l‟aide des microdonnées du recensement de 2000 et des données administratives sur l‟éducation et en s‟appuyant sur : 1) les scénarios concernant l‟évolution démographique, d‟éducation et d‟activité économique et 2) un modèle de microsimulation, on a projeté pour la période 2000 à 2025, certaines caractéristiques et comportements démographiques et socio-économiques de la population du Cap-Vert, notamment ceux liés à l‟évolution du statut d‟activité. Selon le scénario le plus plausible, à l‟horizon 2025, le pays se trouvera à l‟étape avancée de la seconde phase de sa transition démographique. Sa population continuerait de croître en raison de sa structure par âge relativement jeune. Bien que le solde migratoire tende à être nul et que la mortalité tende à se stabiliser (près de 5 à 7 décès pour 1 000 habitants par an), cette croissance sera à un rythme moins rapide (d‟environ 1,8 % par an) que celui de la décennie 1990-2000, et ce, malgré le déclin de la fécondité. De 2000 à 2025, le pays pourrait connaître également une augmentation des personnes âgées de 15 à 24 ans, variant de 26 % à 29 % selon les scénarios envisagés, soit ceux et celles qui entreront sur le marché du travail au cours de la période. Le nombre de ces jeunes n‟ayant pas obtenu un diplôme d‟études secondaire, en 2025, pourrait augmenter, selon les scénarios envisagés, variant de 30 % à 44 % de plus qu‟en 2000. Le nombre de personnes de ce groupe d‟âge ayant obtenu un diplôme d‟études secondaires ou plus, le pays pourrait voir leur nombre à décupler de 11 fois à 13 fois à la à l‟horizon 2025.

Constitutively active mutants of the alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor: role of highly conserved polar amino acids in receptor activation.

Site-directed mutagenesis and molecular dynamics simulations of the alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor (AR) were combined to explore the potential molecular changes correlated with the transition from R (inactive state) to R (active state). Using molecular dynamics analysis we compared the structural/dynamic features of constitutively active mutants with those of the wild type and of an inactive alpha 1B-AR to build a theoretical model which defines the essential features of R and R. The results of site-directed mutagenesis were in striking agreement with the predictions of the model supporting the following hypothesis. (i) The equilibrium between R and R depends on the equilibrium between the deprotonated and protonated forms, respectively, of D142 of the DRY motif. In fact, replacement of D142 with alanine confers high constitutive activity to the alpha 1B-AR. (ii) The shift of R143 of the DRY sequence out of a conserved 'polar pocket' formed by N63, D91, N344 and Y348 is a feature common to all the active structures, suggesting that the role of R143 is fundamental for mediating receptor activation. Disruption of these intramolecular interactions by replacing N63 with alanine constitutively activates the alpha 1B-AR. Our findings might provide interesting generalities about the activation process of G protein-coupled receptors.

Performance comparison of an active matrix flat panel imager, computed radiography system, and a screen-film system at four standard radiation qualities.

Four standard radiation qualities (from RQA 3 to RQA 9) were used to compare the imaging performance of a computed radiography (CR) system (general purpose and high resolution phosphor plates of a Kodak CR 9000 system), a selenium-based direct flat panel detector (Kodak Direct View DR 9000), and a conventional screen-film system (Kodak T-MAT L/RA film with a 3M Trimax Regular screen of speed 400) in conventional radiography. Reference exposure levels were chosen according to the manufacturer's recommendations to be representative of clinical practice (exposure index of 1700 for digital systems and a film optical density of 1.4). With the exception of the RQA 3 beam quality, the exposure levels needed to produce a mean digital signal of 1700 were higher than those needed to obtain a mean film optical density of 1.4. In spite of intense developments in the field of digital detectors, screen-film systems are still very efficient detectors for most of the beam qualities used in radiology. An important outcome of this study is the behavior of the detective quantum efficiency of the digital radiography (DR) system as a function of beam energy. The practice of users to increase beam energy when switching from a screen-film system to a CR system, in order to improve the compromise between patient dose and image quality, might not be appropriate when switching from screen-film to selenium-based DR systems.

Up-regulation of the levels of expression and function of a constitutively active mutant of the hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptor by ligands that act as inverse agonists.

The alpha1-adrenergic agonist phenylephrine stimulated phospholipase D (PLD) activity in Rat 1 fibroblasts transfected to express either the wild-type hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptor or a constitutively active mutant (CAM) form of this receptor. The EC50 for agonist stimulation of PLD activity was substantially lower at the CAM receptor than at the wild-type receptor as previously noted for phenylephrine stimulation of phosphoinositidase C activity. Sustained treatment of cells expressing the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor with phentolamine resulted in a marked up-regulation in levels of this receptor with half-maximal effects produced within 24 h and with an EC50 of approx. 40 nM. Such an up-regulation could be produced with a range of other ligands generally viewed as alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists but equivalent treatment of cells expressing the wild-type alpha1B-adrenoceptor was unable to mimic these effects. After sustained treatment of the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor expressing cells with phentolamine, basal PLD activity was increased and phenylephrine was now able to stimulate PLD activity to greater levels than in vehicle-treated CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor-expressing cells. The EC50 for phenylephrine stimulation of PLD activity was not altered, however, by phentolamine pretreatment and the associated up-regulation of the receptor. After phentolamine-induced up-regulation of basal PLD activity, a range of alpha1-antagonists were shown to possess the characteristics of inverse agonists of the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor as they were able to substantially decrease the elevated basal PLD activity.

Credit card debt puzzles

Most US credit card holders revolve high-interest debt, often combined with substantial (i) asset accumulation by retirement, and (ii) low-rate liquid assets. Hyperbolic discounting can resolve only the former puzzle (Laibson et al., 2003). Bertaut and Haliassos (2002) proposed an 'accountant-shopper'framework for the latter. The current paper builds, solves, and simulates a fully-specified accountant-shopper model, to show that this framework canactually generate both types of co-existence, as well as target credit card utilization rates consistent with Gross and Souleles (2002). The benchmark model is compared to setups without self-control problems, with alternative mechanisms, and with impatient but fully rational shoppers.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.

Risk sharing with the monarch: Excusable defaults and contingent debt in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598

Contingent sovereign debt can create important welfare gains. Nonetheless,there is almost no issuance today. Using hand-collected archival data, we examine thefirst known case of large-scale use of state-contingent sovereign debt in history. Philip IIof Spain entered into hundreds of contracts whose value and due date depended onverifiable, exogenous events such as the arrival of silver fleets. We show that this allowedfor effective risk-sharing between the king and his bankers. The data also stronglysuggest that the defaults that occurred were excusable they were simply contingenciesover which Crown and bankers had not contracted previously.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific CD8+ T cells are functionally and phenotypically different between latent infection and active disease.

Protective immunity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) remains poorly understood and the role of Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells is controversial. Here we performed a broad phenotypic and functional characterization of Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells in 326 subjects with latent Mtb infection (LTBI) or active TB disease (TB). Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells were detected in most (60%) TB patients and few (15%) LTBI subjects but were of similar magnitude. Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells in LTBI subjects were mostly T EMRA cells (CD45RA(+) CCR7(-)), coexpressing 2B4 and CD160, and in TB patients were mostly TEM cells (CD45RA(-) CCR7(-)), expressing 2B4 but lacking PD-1 and CD160. The cytokine profile was not significantly different in both groups. Furthermore, Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells expressed low levels of perforin and granulysin but contained granzymes A and B. However, in vitro-expanded Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells expressed perforin and granulysin. Finally, Mtb-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses were less frequently detected in extrapulmonary TB compared with pulmonary TB patients. Mtb-specific CD8(+) T-cell proliferation was also greater in patients with extrapulmonary compared with pulmonary TB. Thus, the activity of Mtb infection and clinical presentation are associated with distinct profiles of Mtb-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses. These results provide new insights in the interaction between Mtb and the host immune response.

Longitudinal and cross-sectional changes in active commuting to school among Brazilian schoolchildren.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to evaluate cross-sectional and longitudinal changes in children's commuting to school in a representative sample of a Brazilian city. METHODS: Two school-based studies were carried out in 2002 (n=2936; 7-10years old) and 2007 (n=1232; 7-15years old) in Florianopolis, Brazil. Cross-sectional data were collected from children aged 7 to 10years in 2002 and 2007. Longitudinal analyses were performed with data from 733 children participating in both surveys. Children self-reported their mode of transportation to school using a validated illustrated questionnaire. Changes were tested with chi square statistics and McNemar's test. RESULTS: Cross-sectional data showed a 17% decline in active commuting; a decrease from 49% in 2002 to 41% in 2007. On the other hand, active commuting among the 733 children increased as they entered adolescence 5years later, rising from 40% to 49%. CONCLUSION: Active commuting to school decreased in Brazilian children aged 7-10years over a five year period; whereas, it increased among children entering adolescence. Policies should focus on safety and environmental determinants to increase active commuting.

Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, More Sources on Students and Credit Card Debt, October 2007

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: More Sources on Students and Credit Card Debt Suggested by the Office of Attorney General Tom Miller

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Fair Debt Collection: Know Your Rights, March 2007

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Fair Debt Collection: Know Your Rights

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, "No-Equity Loans!" "Consolidate Your Debt!", June 2005

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: "No-Equity Loans!" "Consolidate Your Debt!"

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.