The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Coherence and Elicitability

The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible, are called elicitable. It is known that quantile-based risk measures such as value at risk are elicitable. In this paper, the existing result of the nonelicitability of expected shortfall is extended to all law-invariant spectral risk measures unless they reduce to minus the expected value. Hence, it is unclear how to perform forecast verification or comparison. However, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures does not reduce to minus the expected value. We show that it consists of certain expectiles.

Induction and detoxification of maize 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones by insect herbivores

In monocotyledonous plants, 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones, also referred to as benzoxazinoids or hydroxamic acids, are one of the most important chemical barriers against herbivores. However, knowledge about their behavior after attack, mode of action and potential detoxification by specialized insects remains limited. We chose an innovative analytical approach to understand the role of maize 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones in plant–insect interactions. By combining unbiased metabolomics screening and simultaneous measurements of living and digested plant tissue, we created a quantitative dynamic map of 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones at the plant–insect interface. Hypotheses derived from this map were tested by specifically developed in vitro assays using purified 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones and active extracts from mutant plants lacking 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones. Our data show that maize plants possess a two-step defensive system that effectively fends off both the generalist Spodoptera littoralis and the specialist Spodoptera frugiperda. In the first step, upon insect attack, large quantities of 2-β-d-glucopyranosyloxy-4,7-dimethoxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one (HDMBOA-Glc) are formed. In the second step, after tissue disruption by the herbivores, highly unstable 2-hydroxy-4,7-dimethoxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one (HDMBOA) is released by plant-derived β-glucosidases. HDMBOA acts as a strong deterrent to both S. littoralis and S. frugiperda. Although constitutively produced 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones such as 2,4-dihydroxy-7-methoxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one (DIMBOA) are detoxified via glycosylation by the insects, no conjugation of HDMBOA in the insect gut was found, which may explain why even the specialist S. frugiperda has not evolved immunity against this plant defense. Taken together, our results show the benefit of using a plant–insect interface approach to elucidate plant defensive processes and unravel a potent resistance mechanism in maize.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE Associations between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures are unclear and clinical trials are lacking. OBJECTIVE To assess the association of subclinical thyroid dysfunction with hip, nonspine, spine, or any fractures. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION The databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to March 26, 2015) were searched without language restrictions for prospective cohort studies with thyroid function data and subsequent fractures. DATA EXTRACTION Individual participant data were obtained from 13 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan. Levels of thyroid function were defined as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH <0.45 mIU/L), and subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.50-19.99 mIU/L) with normal thyroxine concentrations. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES The primary outcome was hip fracture. Any fractures, nonspine fractures, and clinical spine fractures were secondary outcomes. RESULTS Among 70,298 participants, 4092 (5.8%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2219 (3.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During 762,401 person-years of follow-up, hip fracture occurred in 2975 participants (4.6%; 12 studies), any fracture in 2528 participants (9.0%; 8 studies), nonspine fracture in 2018 participants (8.4%; 8 studies), and spine fracture in 296 participants (1.3%; 6 studies). In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) for subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism was 1.36 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.13-1.64; 146 events in 2082 participants vs 2534 in 56,471); for any fracture, HR was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.06-1.53; 121 events in 888 participants vs 2203 in 25,901); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.16 (95% CI, 0.95-1.41; 107 events in 946 participants vs 1745 in 21,722); and for spine fracture, HR was 1.51 (95% CI, 0.93-2.45; 17 events in 732 participants vs 255 in 20,328). Lower TSH was associated with higher fracture rates: for TSH of less than 0.10 mIU/L, HR was 1.61 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.21-2.15; 47 events in 510 participants); for any fracture, HR was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41-2.78; 44 events in 212 participants); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.61 (95% CI, 0.96-2.71; 32 events in 185 participants); and for spine fracture, HR was 3.57 (95% CI, 1.88-6.78; 8 events in 162 participants). Risks were similar after adjustment for other fracture risk factors. Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (excluding thyroid medication users) was associated with HRs of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.19-1.93) for hip fracture, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.16-1.74) for any fracture, and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.01-2.99) for spine fracture. No association was found between subclinical hypothyroidism and fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with an increased risk of hip and other fractures, particularly among those with TSH levels of less than 0.10 mIU/L and those with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism. Further study is needed to determine whether treating subclinical hyperthyroidism can prevent fractures.

Probing the moduli dependence of refined topological amplitudes

With the aim of providing a worldsheet description of the refined topological string, we continue the study of a particular class of higher derivative couplings Fg,n in the type II string effective action compactified on a Calabi–Yau threefold. We analyse first order differential equations in the anti-holomorphic moduli of the theory, which relate the Fg,n to other component couplings. From the point of view of the topological theory, these equations describe the contribution of non-physical states to twisted correlation functions and encode an obstruction for interpreting the Fg,n as the free energy of the refined topological string theory. We investigate possibilities of lifting this obstruction by formulating conditions on the moduli dependence under which the differential equations simplify and take the form of generalised holomorphic anomaly equations. We further test this approach against explicit calculations in the dual heterotic theory.

All-loop anomalous dimensions in integrable λ-deformed σ-models

We calculate the all-loop anomalous dimensions of current operators in λ-deformed σ-models. For the isotropic integrable deformation and for a semi-simple group G we compute the anomalous dimensions using two different methods. In the first we use the all-loop effective action and in the second we employ perturbation theory along with the Callan–Symanzik equation and in conjunction with a duality-type symmetry shared by these models. Furthermore, using CFT techniques we compute the all-loop anomalous dimension of bilinear currents for the isotropic deformation case and a general G . Finally we work out the anomalous dimension matrix for the cases of anisotropic SU(2) and the two couplings, corresponding to the symmetric coset G/H and a subgroup H, splitting of a group G.

The M-theory origin of global properties of gauge theories

We show that global properties of gauge groups can be understood as geometric properties in M-theory. Different wrappings of a system of N M5-branes on a torus reduce to four-dimensional theories with AN−1 gauge algebra and different unitary groups. The classical properties of the wrappings determine the global properties of the gauge theories without the need to impose any quantum conditions. We count the inequivalent wrappings as they fall into orbits of the modular group of the torus, which correspond to the S-duality orbits of the gauge theories.

Tooth loss, chewing efficiency and cognitive impairment in geriatric patients.

BACKGROUND Patients with dementia have poorer oral health and fewer teeth than their peers without cognitive impairment. OBJECTIVE The hypothesis of this study is that the number of natural teeth and the chewing efficiency are associated with cognitive functioning. METHODS This cross-sectional study included 29 patients diagnosed with dementia aged 75 years or older and 22 controls who were either cognitively normal (n = 19) or with mild cognitive impairment (n = 3). Neuropsychological, nutritional and dental assessments were performed. The chewing efficiency was evaluated with a two-colour mixing test. RESULTS Demented patients and controls presented with a mean of 4.9 and 6.5 teeth, respectively (n.s.). The number of natural teeth was not associated with dementia (p = 0.553). Same results were found for age (p = 0.746) and sex (p = 0.901). The chewing efficiency by visual inspection proved worse in participants with dementia than in the controls (p < 0.011) and explained 9.3% of the variance in the diagnosis of dementia. Neither dental state nor chewing efficiency was related to the nutritional state. CONCLUSION Chewing efficiency seems stronger associated with cognitive impairment than the number of teeth. Hence, in a more holistic approach for the geriatric assessment, the dental examination may be complemented by a chewing efficiency test.

Solar radiation over and under sea ice and photographic quantification of Ice algal aggregates during the POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXVII/3 (IceArc) in summer 2012

The ice cover of the Arctic Ocean has been changing dramatically in the last decades and the consequences for the sea-ice associated ecosystem remain difficult to assess. Algal aggregates underneath sea ice have been described sporadically but the frequency and distribution of their occurrence is not well quantified. We used upward looking images obtained by a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to derive estimates of ice algal aggregate biomass and to investigate their spatial distribution. During the IceArc expedition (ARK-XXVII/3) of RV Polarstern in late summer 2012, different types of algal aggregates were observed floating underneath various ice types in the Central Arctic basins. Our results show that the floe scale distribution of algal aggregates in late summer is very patchy and determined by the topography of the ice underside, with aggregates collecting in dome shaped structures and at the edges of pressure ridges. The buoyancy of the aggregates was also evident from analysis of the aggregate size distribution. Different approaches used to estimate aggregate biomass yield a wide range of results. This highlights that special care must be taken when upscaling observations and comparing results from surveys conducted using different methods or on different spatial scales.

Solar irradiance over and under seasonal land-fast sea ice off Barrow, Alaska, in 2010

The amount of solar radiation transmitted through Arctic sea ice is determined by the thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice. Light transmittance is highly variable in space and time since thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice are highly heterogeneous on variable time and length scales. We present field measurements of under-ice irradiance along transects under undeformed land-fast sea ice at Barrow, Alaska (March, May, and June 2010). The measurements were performed with a spectral radiometer mounted on a floating under-ice sled. The objective was to quantify the spatial variability of light transmittance through snow and sea ice, and to compare this variability along its seasonal evolution. Along with optical measurements, snow depth, sea ice thickness, and freeboard were recorded, and ice cores were analyzed for chlorophyll a and particulate matter. Our results show that snow cover variability prior to onset of snow melt causes as much relative spatial variability of light transmittance as the contrast of ponded and white ice during summer. Both before and after melt onset, measured transmittances fell in a range from one third to three times the mean value. In addition, we found a twentyfold increase of light transmittance as a result of partial snowmelt, showing the seasonal evolution of transmittance through sea ice far exceeds the spatial variability. However, prior melt onset, light transmittance was time invariant and differences in under-ice irradiance were directly related to the spatial variability of the snow cover.

Isotope climatic record from ice core Dome C

Simple glaciological conditions at Dome C in east Antarctica have made possible a more detailed and accurate interpretation of an ice core to 950 m depth spanning some 32,000 yr than that obtained from earlier ice cores. Dated events in comparable marine core has enabled the reduction of accumulation rate during the last ice age to be estimated. Climatic events recorded in the ice core indicate that the warmest Holocene period in the Southern Hemisphere occurred at an earlier date than in the Northern Hemisphere.