Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Para além da crise. Relações familiares na África contemporânea

Em África nas últimas décadas a família, como uma categoria social e moral, ganhou novos contornos. Nos discursos dominantes, quer institucionais quer do senso comum, destaca-se uma visão paradoxal da família. Evocada como um pilar identitário e social de importância sempre renovada, a família contemporânea também é categorizada como estando em crise, “desestruturada" e consequentemente apontada como raiz de muitos dos problemas sociais actuais. Com base em dados etnográficos recolhidos com famílias das áreas urbanas pobres da cidade do Mindelo (Cabo Verde), propomos uma análise crítica para além dos discursos sobre a crise da família. As redes familiares transnacionais, as transformações nas relações de género e novas dinâmicas de reciprocidade inter-geracional serão revelados como recursos centrais para uma maioria de cabo-verdianos pobres estruturarem as suas identidades e percursos de vida e assim fazerem face à crescente incerteza que caracteriza os contextos africanos contemporâneos.

Le sophiste Dion de Pruse, le bon roi et l'empereur

Cet article porte sur la réflexion politique grecque au sujet du principat et sur les relations entre le sophiste Dion de Pruse (40-50 après J.-C. - après 110 ?) et le pouvoir impérial. Il propose une analyse des discours de Dion qui concernent les modèles de royauté : les quatre discours Sur la royauté (Or. I à IV), l'Agamemnon (Or. LVI), le discours Sur la royauté et la tyrannie (Or. LXII). La première partie examine les circonstances de rédaction ou de prononciation des discours, afin de distinguer différentes étapes dans la pensée politique du sophiste et dans son jugement sur la figure de l'empereur. La deuxième partie étudie les deux images du « bon » roi : le roi imparfait, soumis à reddition de compte ; l'Optimus Princeps. Cette seconde image, beaucoup plus développée, est définie à la fois par un ensemble de vertus et par l'imitation du roi des dieux. La troisième partie analyse les objectifs de Dion, compare sa réflexion avec celles des intellectuels romains du Ier et du IIe siècles, dégage sa position complexe à l'égard du principat et de la figure de Trajan. The paper focuses on Greek political thinking on principate as well as on the relations between the sophist Dio of Prusa (40-50 till 100 A.D. ?) and the imperial power. It analyses Dion's speeches on royal models : the four speeches On Kingship (Or. I to IV), the Agamemnon (Or. LVI) as well as the speech On Kingship and Tyranny (Or. LXII). The first part examines under which circumstances these speeches have been drafted and given, in order to highlight the evolution of the sophist's political thinking and his assessment of the figure of emperor. Secondly, the two images of a good king are examined : the imperfect and accountable king on the one hand, the Optimus Princeps on the other. The latter image, more largely developed, is both defined by a collection of virtues and an imitation of the king of gods. The third and last part analyses Dion's objectives, compares his thoughts with the ones of 1st and 2nd centuries Roman intellectuals and sketches his complex standpoint towards the principate and Trajan.

Nuori hiihtäjämestari Markus Sahlberg 7/3 1958

Kirje 7.3.1958

Perfusion and diffusion MRI of glioblastoma progression in a four-year prospective temozolomide clinical trial.

PURPOSE: This study was performed to determine the impact of perfusion and diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences on patients during treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Special emphasis has been given to these imaging technologies as tools to potentially anticipate disease progression, as progression-free survival is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Forty-one patients from a phase II temolozomide clinical trial were included. During follow-up, images were integrated 21 to 28 days after radiochemotherapy and every 2 months thereafter. Assessment of scans included measurement of size of lesion on T1 contrast-enhanced, T2, diffusion, and perfusion images, as well as mass effect. Classical criteria on tumor size variation and clinical parameters were used to set disease progression date. RESULTS: A total of 311 MRI examinations were reviewed. At disease progression (32 patients), a multivariate Cox regression determined 2 significant survival parameters: T1 largest diameter (p < 0.02) and T2 size variation (p < 0.05), whereas perfusion and diffusion were not significant. CONCLUSION: Perfusion and diffusion techniques cannot be used to anticipate tumor progression. Decision making at disease progression is critical, and classical T1 and T2 imaging remain the gold standard. Specifically, a T1 contrast enhancement over 3 cm in largest diameter together with an increased T2 hypersignal is a marker of inferior prognosis.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Fiscal decentralization policies and sub-national government debt in evolving federations

As part of a process of democratization, many countries spanning Europe, Latin Amertica, Africa, and Asia are reorganizing their governments bydevolving fiscal responsibility and authority to newly empowered regionaland local governments. Although decentralization in each country proceedsdifferently, a common element tends to be an initially heavy relianceon central government grants to fund regional spending. We develop atheoretical model of regional borrowing decisions in which the incentivesfor regional borrowing depend crucially on how the regions expect thefederal system of finance to evolve. We examine the implications of themodel using data on Spanish regions for the period 1984-1995 and findevidence that regions may be borrowing inefficiently in response toincentives imbedded in the Spanish system of fiscal decentralization.

Thirteen polymorphic microsatellite markers for the European green toad Bufo viridis viridis, a declining amphibian species.

We report 13 new polymorphic microsatellite markers for the European green toad Bufo viridis viridis (B. viridis subgroup), a declining amphibian from Central, Southeastern and Eastern Europe. Diversity at these loci estimated for 19 individuals ranged from two to ten alleles. Most of these primers also cross-amplify in related West-Mediterranean green toad species (Bufo balearicus, B. siculus and B. boulengeri). These microsatellites will be useful for conservation genetics of threatened Bufo viridis viridis populations and evolutionary studies of green toad taxa in secondary contact to examine hybridization.