ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Gamma 60Co DL50/30 of Biomphalaria glabrata (Say, 1818)

The variation of resistance to 60Co gamma-rays of Biomphalaria glabrata was studied. A population of 480 mollusks was observed during 30 days - distributed in 8 groups of snails isolated and 8 groups of snails in colonies - after exposure (30 snails per group per dose) to increasing doses of gamma radiation. Doses of 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 160, 320 and 640 Gy from a Gamma-cell 60Co irradiator, were applied to the test groups and two groups control (non-irradiated) of snails - isolated and colony - were kept apart. After have been exposed, the snails were drew back to the aquaria where they were maintained before. The survival was estimated on a daily score of the alive animals in each group-dose, starting after the irradiation exposure day. As a result, the survival self-fertilization forms (DL50/30 = 218.2 Gy) was found greater than in cross-fecundation forms. These data point to a low radio-resistance on the cross-fertilization forms - the sexual reproductive form - which is most found in nature. The lower radio-resistance of the cross-fertilization forms suggests the presence of some sex-linked hormonal factor related to this phenomenon.

Outbreaks of human-herpes virus 6 (HHV-6) infection in day-care centers in Belém, Pará, Brazil

A total of 730 children aged less than 7 years, attending 8 day-care centers (DCCs) in Belém, Brazil were followed-up from January to December 1997 to investigate the occurrence of human-herpes virus 6 (HHV-6) infection in these institutional settings. Between October and December 1997 there have been outbreaks of a febrile- and -exanthematous disease, affecting at least 15-20% of children in each of the DCCs. Both serum- and- plasma samples were obtained from 401 (55%) of the 730 participating children for the detection of HHV-6 antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and viral DNA amplification through the nested-PCR. Recent HHV-6 infection was diagnosed in 63.8% (256/401) of them, as defined by the presence of both IgM and IgG-specific antibodies (IgM+/IgG+); of these, 114 (44.5%) were symptomatic and 142 (55.5%) had no symptoms (p = 0.03). A subgroup of 123 (30.7%) children were found to be IgM-/IgG+, whereas the remaining 22 (5.5%) children had neither IgM nor IgG HHV-6- antibodies (IgM-/IgG-). Of the 118 children reacting strongly IgM-positive ( > or = 30 PANBIO units), 26 (22.0%) were found to harbour the HHV-6 DNA, as demonstrated by nested-PCR. Taken the ELISA-IgM- and- nested PCR-positive results together, HHV-6 infection was shown to have occurred in 5 of the 8 DCCs under follow-up. Serological evidence of recent infections by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and parvovirus B19 were identified in 2.0% (8/401) and 1.5% (6/401) of the children, respectively. Our data provide strong evidence that HHV-6 is a common cause of outbreaks of febrile/exanthematous diseases among children attending DCCs in the Belém area.

Factors affecting Helicobacter pylori eradication using a seven-day triple therapy with a proton pump inhibitor, tinidazole and clarithromycin, in brazilian patients with peptic ulcer

Triple therapy is accepted as the treatment of choice for H. pylori eradication. In industrialized countries, a proton pump inhibitor plus clarithromycin and amoxicillin or nitroimidazole have shown the best results. Our aims were: 1. To study the eradication rate of the association of a proton pump inhibitor plus tinidazole and clarithromycin on H. pylori infection in our population. 2. To determine if previous treatments, gender, age, tobacco, alcohol use, and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) change the response to therapy. METHODS: Two hundred patients with peptic ulcer (upper endoscopy) and H. pylori infection (histology and rapid urease test - RUT) were included. A proton pump inhibitor (lansoprazole 30 mg or omeprazole 20 mg), tinidazole 500 mg, and clarithromycin 250 mg were dispensed twice a day for a seven-day period. Eradication was assessed after 10 to 12 weeks of treatment through histology and RUT. RESULTS: The eradication rate of H. pylori per protocol was 65% (128/196 patients). This rate was 53% for previously treated patients, rising to 76% for not previously treated patients, with a statistical difference p<0.01. No significant difference was observed regarding sex, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and NSAID use, but for elderly patients the difference was p = 0.05. Adherence to treatment was good, and side effects were mild. CONCLUSIONS: A proton pump inhibitor, tinidazole, and clarithromycin bid for seven days resulted in H. pylori eradication in 65% of the patients. Previous treatments were the main cause of treatment failure.

Transient stimulation of glucose metabolism by insulin in the 1-day chick embryo.

Effects of insulin upon glucose metabolism were investigated in chick embryos explanted in vitro during the first 30 h of incubation. Insulin stimulated the glucose consumption of the chick gastrula (18 h) and neurula (24 h), but had no effect on the late blastula (0 h:laying) and on the stage of six to eight somites (30 h). The increase in glucose consumption concerned both the embryonic area pellucida (AP) and extraembryonic area opaca (AO). AP responded to a greater extent (50%) and at a lower range of concentrations (0.1-1.0 ng/ml) than AO (30%; 1-100 ng/ml). Insulin had no effect on the oxygen consumption of blastoderms, whereas it stimulated the aerobic lactate production (approximately 70% of the additional glucose consumption was converted to lactate). The nanomolar range of stimulating concentrations suggests that insulin has a specific effect in the chick embryo, and that it could modulate glucose metabolism in ovo as well. The transient sensitivity of the embryo to insulin is discussed in relation to behavior of mesodermal cells.

Predictors of early hospital readmission after acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for early mortality after pulmonary embolism (PE) are widely known. However, it is uncertain which factors are associated with early readmission after PE. We sought to identify predictors of readmission after an admission for PE. METHODS: We studied 14 426 patient discharges with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania from January 1, 2000, to November 30, 2002. The outcome was readmission within 30 days of presentation for PE. We used a discrete proportional odds model to study the association between time to readmission and patient factors (age, sex, race, insurance, discharge status, and severity of illness), thrombolysis, and hospital characteristics (region, teaching status, and number of beds). RESULTS: Overall, 2064 patient discharges (14.3%) resulted in a readmission within 30 days of presentation for PE. The most common reasons for readmission were venous thromboembolism (21.9%), cancer (10.8%), pneumonia (5.2%), and bleeding (5.0%). In multivariable analysis, African American race (odds ratio [OR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.38), Medicaid insurance (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.81), discharge home with supplemental care (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.27-1.54), leaving the hospital against medical advice (OR, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.80-4.48), and severity of illness were independently associated with readmission; readmission also varied by hospital region. CONCLUSIONS: Early readmission after PE is common. African American race, Medicaid insurance, severity of illness, discharge status, and hospital region are significantly associated with readmission. The high readmission rates for venous thromboembolism and bleeding suggest that readmission may be linked to suboptimal quality of care in the management of PE.

What was your fracture risk evaluated by FRAX(®) the day before your osteoporotic fracture?

Osteoporotic fracture (OF) is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries. Switzerland is among the countries with the greatest risk. Our aim was (1) to calculate the FRAX(®) in a selected Swiss population the day before the occurrence of an OF and (2) to compare the results with the proposed Swiss FRAX(®) thresholds. The Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis proposed guidelines for the treatment of osteoporosis based on age-dependent thresholds. To identify a population at a very high risk of osteoporotic fracture, we included all consecutive patients in the active OF pathway cohort from the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. FRAX(®) was calculated with the available data the day before the actual OF. People with a FRAX(®) body mass index (BMI) or a FRAX(®) (bone mineral density) BMD lower than the Swiss thresholds were not considered at high risk. Two-hundred thirty-seven patients were included with a mean age of 77.2 years, and 80 % were female. Major types of fracture included hip (58 %) and proximal humerus (25 %) fractures. Mean FRAX(®) BMI values were 28.0, 10.0, 13.0, 26.0, and 37.0 % for age groups 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80-89 years old, respectively. Fifty percent of the population was not considered at high risk by the FRAX(®) BMI. FRAX(®) BMD was available for 95 patients, and 45 % had a T score < -2.5 standard deviation. Only 30 % of patients with a normal or osteopenic BMD were classified at high risk by FRAX(®) BMD. The current proposed Swiss thresholds were not able to classify at high risk in 50 to 70 % of the studied population the day before a major OF.

PHA supports World No Tobacco Day

The Public Health Agency is taking the opportunity to highlight this year's World No Tobacco Day which takes place on Tuesday 31 May.In Northern Ireland, around 340,000 people aged 16 and over smoke. Smoking contributes not only to many cancers, heart disease, bronchitis and asthma, but to other illnesses, including stroke. In fact, smoking causes around 2,700 deaths per year here, all of them avoidable.The PHA is committed to saving lives by reducing the percentage of people who smoke. The PHA:works with councils to ensure smoking-related laws are enforced; funds a range of support to smokers who want to quit; educates young people to not start smoking, through programmes like 'Teenage Kicks' and 'Smokebusters'. In January this year, the PHA also launched its smoking campaign 'Things to do before you die' to encourage smokers, particularly those aged 20-49, to stop smoking.Health Minister Edwin Poots said:"Smoking is the greatest cause of preventable illness and premature death in Northern Ireland. While good progress has been made in the last number of years to reduce the number of people who smoke, more needs to be done."I would appeal to all smokers to use the wide range of support services available to make every effort to stop smoking - it is the single best step you can take to improve your health and quality of life."Mark Mc Bride, Health Improvement Manager, PHA, said "Smoking is the single greatest preventable cause of death in the world today. Across Northern Ireland there are over 600 support services for people who wish to stop smoking. These are based in GP surgeries, community pharmacies, hospitals, community centres and workplaces."From April 2010 to end March 2011 more than 1 in 10 of all adult smokers sought help from the support services and approximately half had quit after four weeks. This is a substantial - roughly 50% increase - on previous years and shows the benefit of the PHA campaigns and the dedication of the many specialists who help smokers quit."I would encourage everyone who is either thinking about quitting or ready to log on to our Want 2 Stop website www.want2stop.info or to contacting the Smokers' Helpline on 0808 812 8008 a Quit Kit free of charge."

Arrhythmogenesis in the developing heart during anoxia-reoxygenation and hypothermia-rewarming: an in vitro model.

INTRODUCTION: The spatio-temporal pattern of arrhythmias in the embryonic/fetal heart subjected to a transient hypoxic or hypothermic stress remains to be established. METHODS AND RESULTS: Spontaneously beating hearts or isolated atria, ventricles, and conotruncus from 4-day-old chick embryos were subjected in vitro to 30-minute anoxia and 60-minute reoxygenation. Hearts were also submitted to 30-minute hypothermia (0-4 degrees C) and 60-minute rewarming. ECG disturbances and alterations of atrial and ventricular electromechanical delay (EMD) were systematically investigated. Baseline functional parameters were stable during at least 2 hours. Anoxia induced tachycardia, followed by bradycardia, atrial ectopy, first-, second-, and third-degree atrio-ventricular blocks and, finally, transient electromechanical arrest after 6.8 minutes, interquartile ranges (IQR) 3.1-16.2 (n = 8). Reoxygenation triggered also Wenckebach phenomenon and ventricular escape beats. At the onset of reoxygenation QT, PR, and ventricular EMD increased by 68%, 70%, and 250%, respectively, whereas atrial EMD was not altered. No fibrillations, no ventricular ectopic beats, and no electromechanical dissociation were observed. Arrhythmic activity of the isolated atria persisted throughout anoxia and upon reoxygenation, whereas activity of the isolated ventricles abruptly ceased after 5 minutes of anoxia and resumed after 5 minutes of reoxygenation. During hypothermia-rewarming, cardiac activity stopped at 17.9 degrees C, IQR 16.2-20.6 (n = 4) and resumed at the same temperature with no arrhythmias. All preparations fully recovered after 40 minutes of reoxygenation or rewarming. CONCLUSION: In the embryonic heart, arrhythmias mainly originated in the sinoatrial tissue and resembled those observed in the adult heart. Furthermore, oxygen readmission was by far more arrhythmogenic than rewarming and the chronotropic, dromotropic, and inotropic effects were fully reversible.

Efficacy of lisdexamfetamine dimesylate throughout the day in children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: results from a randomized, controlled trial.

Lisdexamfetamine dimesylate (LDX) is a long-acting, prodrug stimulant therapy for patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This randomized placebo-controlled trial of an optimized daily dose of LDX (30, 50 or 70 mg) was conducted in children and adolescents (aged 6-17 years) with ADHD. To evaluate the efficacy of LDX throughout the day, symptoms and behaviors of ADHD were evaluated using an abbreviated version of the Conners' Parent Rating Scale-Revised (CPRS-R) at 1000, 1400 and 1800 hours following early morning dosing (0700 hours). Osmotic-release oral system methylphenidate (OROS-MPH) was included as a reference treatment, but the study was not designed to support a statistical comparison between LDX and OROS-MPH. The full analysis set comprised 317 patients (LDX, n = 104; placebo, n = 106; OROS-MPH, n = 107). At baseline, CPRS-R total scores were similar across treatment groups. At endpoint, differences (active treatment - placebo) in least squares (LS) mean change from baseline CPRS-R total scores were statistically significant (P < 0.001) throughout the day for LDX (effect sizes: 1000 hours, 1.42; 1400 hours, 1.41; 1800 hours, 1.30) and OROS-MPH (effect sizes: 1000 hours, 1.04; 1400 hours, 0.98; 1800 hours, 0.92). Differences in LS mean change from baseline to endpoint were statistically significant (P < 0.001) for both active treatments in all four subscales of the CPRS-R (ADHD index, oppositional, hyperactivity and cognitive). In conclusion, improvements relative to placebo in ADHD-related symptoms and behaviors in children and adolescents receiving a single morning dose of LDX or OROS-MPH were maintained throughout the day and were ongoing at the last measurement in the evening (1800 hours).

Validation of the potentially avoidable hospital readmission rate as a routine indicator of the quality of hospital care

BACKGROUND: The hospital readmission rate has been proposed as an important outcome indicator computable from routine statistics. However, most commonly used measures raise conceptual issues. OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the usefulness of the computerized algorithm for identifying avoidable readmissions on the basis of minimum bias, criterion validity, and measurement precision. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: A total of 131,809 hospitalizations of patients discharged alive from 49 hospitals were used to compare the predictive performance of risk adjustment methods. A subset of a random sample of 570 medical records of discharge/readmission pairs in 12 hospitals were reviewed to estimate the predictive value of the screening of potentially avoidable readmissions. MEASURES: Potentially avoidable readmissions, defined as readmissions related to a condition of the previous hospitalization and not expected as part of a program of care and occurring within 30 days after the previous discharge, were identified by a computerized algorithm. Unavoidable readmissions were considered as censored events. RESULTS: A total of 5.2% of hospitalizations were followed by a potentially avoidable readmission, 17% of them in a different hospital. The predictive value of the screen was 78%; 27% of screened readmissions were judged clearly avoidable. The correlation between the hospital rate of clearly avoidable readmission and all readmissions rate, potentially avoidable readmissions rate or the ratio of observed to expected readmissions were respectively 0.42, 0.56 and 0.66. Adjustment models using clinical information performed better. CONCLUSION: Adjusted rates of potentially avoidable readmissions are scientifically sound enough to warrant their inclusion in hospital quality surveillance.

Relationship between time of day and periprocedural myocardial infarction after elective angioplasty.

Objectives: To test if the time of day significantly influences the occurrence of type 4A myocardial infarction in elective patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Background: Recent studies have suggested an influence of circadian rhythms on myocardial infarction size and mortality among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. The aim of the study is to investigate whether periprocedural myocardial infarction (PMI) is influenced by the time of day in elective patients undergoing PCI. Methods: All consecutive patients undergoing elective PCI between 2007 and 2011 at our institutions with known post-interventional troponin were retrospectively included. Patients (n = 1021) were divided into two groups according to the starting time of the PCI: the morning group (n = 651) between 07:00 and 11:59, and the afternoon group (n = 370) between 12:00 and 18:59. Baseline and procedural characteristics as well as clinical outcome defined as the occurrence of PMI were compared between groups. In order to limit selection bias, all analyses were equally performed in 308 pairs using propensity score (PS) matching. Results: In the overall population, the rate of PMI was statistically lower in the morning group compared to the afternoon group (20% vs. 30%, p < 0.001). This difference remained statistically significant after PS-matching (21% vs. 29%, p = 0.03). Multivariate analysis shows that being treated in the afternoon independently increases the risk for PMI with an odds ratio of 2.0 (95%CI: 1.1-3.4; p = 0.02). Conclusions: This observational PS-matched study suggests that the timing of an elective PCI influences the rate of PMI.

Diet-induced thermogenesis measured over a whole day in obese and nonobese women.

The overall thermogenic response to food intake measured over a whole day in 20 young nondiabetic obese women (body fat mean +/- SEM: 38.6 +/- 0.7%), was compared with that obtained in eight nonobese control women (body fat: 24.7 +/- 0.9%). The energy expenditure of the subjects was continuously measured over 24 h with a respiration chamber, and the spontaneous activity was assessed by a radar system. A new approach was used to obtain the integrated thermogenic response to the three meals ingested over the day (from 8:30 AM to 10:30 PM). This method allows to subtract the energy expended for physical activity from total energy expenditure and to calculate the integrated dietary-induced thermogenesis as the difference between the energy expended without physical activity and basal metabolic rate. The thermogenic response to the three meals (expressed in percentage of the total energy ingested) was found to be blunted in obese women (8.7 +/- 0.8%) as compared with that of controls (14.8 +/- 1.1%). There was an inverse correlation between the percentage body fat and the diet-induced thermogenesis (r = -0.61, p less than 0.001). In addition, the relative increase in diurnal urinary norepinephrine excretion was lower in obese than in the control subjects. It is concluded that a low overall thermogenic response to feeding may be a contributing factor for energy storage in some obese subjects; a blunted response of the sympathetic nervous system could explain this low thermogenic response.

The night and day of dung beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in the Serra do Japi, Brazil: elytra colour related to daily activity

In the present study 387 dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) were surveyed at the Serra do Japi, in the Atlantic Forest in São Paulo State, with four baited pitfall traps during the months of December, 1998, and January, 1999 during eight 24 hour cycles. A total of 30 species were identified and temporal variation in activity patterns among the species shows a specialization in the use of food resources: 9 species were classified as nocturnal and 13 as diurnal. The daily activity pattern of dung beetles does not necessarily correspond to the taxonomic classification, but is strongly related to the colouring of species, determined by predominant elytra colour: nocturnal species have 89 % more chances of being black as opposed to colourful. Black nocturnal species might have evolved as an interspecific adaptation to avoid predation (cryptic colouring). Among the colourful diurnal dung beetles, measure of body length of each species shows that development of bright colouring was more often found in medium to large species, which suggests that colouring evolved as a response to intraspecific pressures, important in agonistic encounters among males.