How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Patterns of extraocular muscle weakness in vasculopathic pupil-sparing, incomplete third nerve palsy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the pattern of extraocular muscle (EOM) paresis in incomplete vasculopathic third nerve palsies (3NP) that have normal pupillary function. METHODS: A retrospective study in a private practice and academic neuro-ophthalmic practice. Patients diagnosed with vasculopathic 3NP within 4 weeks of symptom onset were identified. The chart of each patient was reviewed to determine pupillary function and the pattern and degree of EOM and levator palpebrae paresis at the time of presentation. RESULTS: Of 55 patients with vasculopathic 3NP, 42 (76%) had normal pupillary function. Of these 42, 23 (55%) demonstrated an incomplete EOM palsy, defined as partially reduced ductions affecting all third nerve-innervated EOMs and levator (diffuse pattern) or partially reduced ductions that involved only some third nerve-innervated EOMs and levator (focal pattern). Twenty (87%) of these 23 patients showed a diffuse pattern of paresis; only three (13%) showed a focal pattern of paresis, one that affected only the superior rectus and levator muscles (superior division weakness). CONCLUSIONS: Based on our series, most patients with EOM/levator involvement in pupil-sparing, incomplete 3NP of vasculopathic origin have a diffuse pattern of paresis. In contrast, our review of the literature suggests that pupil-sparing 3NP of aneurysmal origin usually have a focal pattern of paresis. We propose that distinguishing these two patterns of EOM paresis may be helpful in differentiating between vasculopathic and aneurysmal 3NP. Future studies will be needed to confirm the clinical utility of this hypothesis.

Cell differentiation to "mating bodies" induced by an integrating and conjugative element in free-living bacteria.

Lateral gene transfer (LGT) is one of the most important processes leading to prokaryotic genome innovation. LGT is typically associated with conjugative plasmids and bacteriophages, but recently, a new class of mobile DNA known as integrating and conjugative elements (ICE) was discovered, which is abundant and widespread among bacterial genomes. By studying at the single-cell level the behavior of a prevalent ICE type in the genus Pseudomonas, we uncover the remarkable way in which the ICE orchestrates host cell differentiation to ensure horizontal transmission. We find that the ICE induces a state of transfer competence (tc) in 3%-5% of cells in a population under nongrowing conditions. ICE factors control the development of tc cells into specific assemblies that we name "mating bodies." Interestingly, cells in mating bodies undergo fewer and slower division than non-tc cells and eventually lyse. Mutations in ICE genes disrupting mating-body formation lead to 5-fold decreased ICE transfer rates. Hence, by confining the tc state to a small proportion of the population, ICE horizontal transmission is achieved with little cost in terms of vertical transmission. Given the low transfer frequencies of most ICE, we anticipate regulation by subpopulation differentiation to be widespread.

Predictors of poor response to methotrexate in polyarticular-course juvenile idiopathic arthritis: analysis of the PRINTO methotrexate trial.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether baseline demographic, clinical, articular and laboratory variables predict methotrexate (MTX) poor response in polyarticular-course juvenile idiopathic arthritis. METHODS: Patients newly treated for 6 months with MTX enrolled in the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) MTX trial. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were used to identify baseline predictors of poor response according to the American College of Rheumatology pediatric (ACR-ped) 30 and 70 criteria. RESULTS: In all, 405/563 (71.9%) of patients were women; median age at onset and disease duration were 4.3 and 1.4 years, respectively, with anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) detected in 259/537 (48.2%) patients. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, the most important determinants of ACR-ped 70 non-responders were: disease duration > 1.3 years (OR 1.93), ANA negativity (OR 1.77), Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) disability index > 1.125 (OR 1.65) and the presence of right and left wrist activity (OR 1.55). Predictors of ACR-ped 30 non-responders were: ANA negativity (OR 1.92), CHAQ disability index > 1.14 (OR 2.18) and a parent's evaluation of child's overall well-being < or = 4.69 (OR 2.2). CONCLUSION: The subgroup of patients with longer disease duration, ANA negativity, higher disability and presence of wrist activity were significantly associated with a poorer response to a 6-month MTX course.

The daily energy expenditure in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Resting energy expenditure is frequently increased in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but it is unknown if this hypermetabolism holds true over 24 h. The aim of this study was to measure the actual 24-h energy expenditure (24-h EE) in patients with stable COPD. Energy expenditure was measured by indirect calorimetry, using a metabolic chamber for 24-h EE and a canopy for basal metabolic rate (BMR). Physical activity was detected in the chamber by a radar system, and its duration was quantified. Two groups matched for age and height were studied: 16 male ambulatory patients with stable COPD and 12 male normal subjects. Body weight was 92 +/- 12% of ideal body weight in the group with COPD and 108 +/- 11% in the control group (p = 0.01). BMR was 120 +/- 7% of predicted in the group with COPD and 108 +/- 12% in the control group (p < 0.01). However, 24-h EE was similar in the two groups, amounting to 1,935 +/- 259 kcal in patients with COPD and 2,046 +/- 253 kcal in the control group (NS). This corresponded to 145% and 137% of predicted BMR, and to 121% and 126% of measured BMR in patients with COPD and the control group, respectively (NS). Patients were allowed to pursue their usual treatment within the chamber, and a positive correlation existed between 24-h EE and the daily dose of inhaled beta 2-agonists (p < 0.03). During daytime, physical activity was lower in patients with COPD. This study shows that patients with stable COPD are characterized by a normal daily energy expenditure in controlled conditions in spite of an increased basal metabolic rate. They appear to save energy by reducing their spontaneous level of physical activity.

Detrital zircon and micropalaeontological ages as new constraints for the lowermost tectonic unit (Talea Ori unit) of Crete, Greece

The Talea Ori unit is the lowermost known tectonic unit of Crete and the most external part of the Hellenides. Its stratigraphy ranges from Late Carboniferous to Oligocene and outcrops of the lower part are only known in the Talea Ori mountains (central Crete). In this area, a black sandstone at the base of the Galinos Beds, thought to be the oldest formation, contains zircons which were dated using the single grain evaporation method. The majority of these grains yielded Late Carboniferous ages (Variscan), while a small group yielded Early Proterozoic ages. The age distribution of these zircons suggests that, at the Carboniferous-Permian boundary, not much of the older North Gondwanan basement was exposed and that a river system carried detrital material from the Variscan belt towards the forming Neotethyan rift. Additionally, higher up in the stratigraphy benthic foraminifers (miliolids) were found in clasts from a conglomerate which was so far thought to be of Early Triassic age [Epting, M., Kudrass, H.-R., Leppig, U., Schaffer, A., 1972. Geologie der Talea Ori/Kreta. N. Jb. Geol. Palaont. Abh. 141, 259-285.]. These miliolids belong to the species Hoyenella inconstans [Michalik, J., Jendrejakova, O., Borza, K., 1979. Some new foraminifera species of the Fatra-Formation (Uppermost Triassic) in the West Carpathians. Geol. Carpath. 30 (1), 61-91.], thus attributing a Late Triassic (Carnian-Norian?) maximal age to this conglomerate. The carbonate platform from which the miliolids-bearing clasts come is not known. The presence to the north of a continuous hemipelagic record from the Carboniferous to the Triassic (Phyllite-Quartzite and Tripali units), attributed to the Palaeotethys realm, allows the Talea Ori unit and its lateral equivalents (the Ionian zone) to be assigned to the westward continuation of the Cimmerian block and therefore to the northern margin of the East Mediterranean Neotethys ocean. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Lettre autographe signée de Giuseppe Verdi adressée à Du Locle, Gênes, 26 mars 1868]

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The rate of recovery in renal function when patients with HIV infection discontinue treatment with tenofovir.

OBJECTIVES: Tenofovir is associated with reduced renal function. It is not clear whether patients can be expected to fully recover their renal function if tenofovir is discontinued. METHODS: We calculated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study remaining on tenofovir for at least 1 year after starting a first antiretroviral therapy regimen with tenofovir and either efavirenz or the ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor lopinavir, atazanavir or darunavir. We estimated the difference in eGFR slope between those who discontinued tenofovir after 1 year and those who remained on tenofovir. RESULTS: A total of 1049 patients on tenofovir for at least 1 year were then followed for a median of 26 months, during which time 259 patients (25%) discontinued tenofovir. After 1 year on tenofovir, the difference in eGFR between those starting with efavirenz and those starting with lopinavir, atazanavir and darunavir was - 0.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) -2.3 to 0.8], -1.4 (95% CI -3.2 to 0.3) and 0.0 (95% CI -1.7 to 1.7) mL/min/1.73 m(2) , respectively. The estimated linear rate of decline in eGFR on tenofovir was -1.1 (95% CI -1.5 to -0.8) mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year and its recovery after discontinuing tenofovir was 2.1 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.9) mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year. Patients starting tenofovir with either lopinavir or atazanavir appeared to have the same rates of decline and recovery as those starting tenofovir with efavirenz. CONCLUSIONS: If patients discontinue tenofovir, clinicians can expect renal function to recover more rapidly than it declined.

Diagnostic and ethical challenges in disorders of consciousness and locked-in syndrome: a survey of German neurologists.

Diagnosis and decisions on life-sustaining treatment (LST) in disorders of consciousness, such as the vegetative state (VS) and the minimally conscious state (MCS), are challenging for neurologists. The locked-in syndrome (LiS) is sometimes confounded with these disorders by less experienced physicians. We aimed to investigate (1) the application of diagnostic knowledge, (2) attitudes concerning limitations of LST, and (3) further challenging aspects in the care of patients. A vignette-based online survey with a randomized presentation of a VS, MCS, or LiS case scenario was conducted among members of the German Society for Neurology. A sample of 503 neurologists participated (response rate 16.4%). An accurate diagnosis was given by 86% of the participants. The LiS case was diagnosed more accurately (94%) than the VS case (79%) and the MCS case (87%, p < 0.001). Limiting LST for the patient was considered by 92, 91, and 84% of the participants who accurately diagnosed the VS, LiS, and MCS case (p = 0.09). Overall, most participants agreed with limiting cardiopulmonary resuscitation; a minority considered limiting artificial nutrition and hydration. Neurologists regarded the estimation of the prognosis and determination of the patients' wishes as most challenging. The majority of German neurologists accurately applied the diagnostic categories VS, MCS, and LiS to case vignettes. Their attitudes were mostly in favor of limiting life-sustaining treatment and slightly differed for MCS as compared to VS and LiS. Attitudes toward LST strongly differed according to circumstances (e.g., patient's will opposed treatment) and treatment measures.

Toxoplasma gondii: flat-mounting of retina as a new tool for the observation of ocular infection in mice.

Ocular toxoplasmosis is the principal cause of posterior uveitis and a leading cause of blindness. Animal models are required to improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of this disease. The method currently used for the detection of retinal cysts in animals involves the observation, under a microscope, of all the sections from infected eyes. However, this method is time-consuming and lacks sensitivity. We have developed a rapid, sensitive method for observing retinal cysts in mice infected with Toxoplasma gondii. This method involves combining the flat-mounting of retina - a compromise between macroscopic observation and global analysis of this tissue - and the use of an avirulent recombinant strain of T. gondii expressing the Escherichia coli beta-galactosidase gene, visually detectable at the submacroscopic level. Single cyst unilateral infection was found in six out of 17 mice killed within 28 days of infection, whereas a bilateral infection was found in only one mouse. There was no correlation between brain cysts number and ocular infection.