904 resultados para 239903 Risk Theory


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How adequate are current theoretical standpoints, tools and categories for explaining the flows of international students to Anglo/American/European universities? This essay takes a different analytic tact and historical standpoint to the study of them and us, insiders and outsiders (cf. Foley, Levinson & Hurtig, 2001), in the internationalisation of education.

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Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

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A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

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In this paper we respond to calls for an institution-based perspective on strategy. With its emphasis upon mimetic, coercive, and normative isomorphism, institutional theory has earned a deterministic reputation and seems an unlikely foundation on which to construct a theory of strategy. However, a second movement in institutional theory is emerging that gives greater emphasis to creativity and agency. We develop this approach by highlighting co-evolutionary processes that are shaping the varieties of capitalism (VoC) in Asia. To do so, we examine the extent to which the VoC model can be fruitfully applied in the Asian context. In the spirit of the second movement of institutional theory, we describe three processes in which firm strategy collectively and intentionally feeds back to shape institutions: (1) filling institutional voids, (2) retarding institutional innovation, and (3) deploying institutional escape. We outline the key contributions contained in the articles of this Special Issue and discuss a research agenda generated by the VoC perspective.

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The main objective of the thesis is to seek insights into the theory, and provide empirical evidence of rebound effects. Rebound effects reduce the environmental benefits of environmental policies and household behaviour changes. In particular, win-win demand side measures, in the form of energy efficiency and household consumption pattern changes, are seen as ways for households and businesses to save money and the environment. However, these savings have environmental impacts when spent, which are known as rebound effects. This is an area that has been widely neglected by policy makers. This work extends the rebound effect literature in three important ways, (1) it incorporates the potential for variation of rebound effects with household income level, (2) it enables the isolation of direct and indirect effects for cases of energy efficient technology adoption, and examines the relationship between these two component effects, and (3) it expands the scope of rebound effect analysis to include government taxes and subsidies. MACROBUTTON HTMLDirect Using a case study approach it is found that the rebound effect from household consumption pattern changes targeted at electricity is between 5 and 10%. For consumption pattern changes with reduced vehicle fuel use, the rebound effect is in the order of 20 to 30%. Higher income households in general are found to have a lower total rebound effect; however the indirect effect becomes relatively more significant at higher household income levels. In the win-lose case of domestic photovoltaic electricity generation, it is demonstrated that negative rebound effects can occur, which can potentially amplify the environmental benefits of this action. The rebound effect from a carbon tax, which occurs due to the re-spending of raised revenues, was found to be in the range of 11-32%. Taxes and transfers between households of different income levels also have environmental implications. For example, a more progressive tax structure, with increased low income welfare payments is likely to increase greenhouse gas emissions. Subsidies aimed at encouraging environmentally friendly consumption habits are also subject to rebound effects, as they constitute a substitution of government expenditure for household expenditure. For policy makers, these findings point to the need to incorporate rebound effects in the environmental policy evaluation process.’

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Background: Injury is the leading cause of mortality for young people in Australia (AIHW, 2008). Adolescent injury mortality is consistently associated with risk taking behaviour, including transport and interpersonal violence (AIHW, 2003), which often occurs in the context of alcohol and other substance use. A rapid increase in risk taking and injury through early to late adolescence highlights the need for effective school based interventions. Aim: The aim of the current research was to examine the relationship between school connectedness and adolescent risk and injury, in order to inform effective prevention approaches. School connectedness, or students’ feelings of belongingness to school, has been shown to be a critical protective factor in adolescence which can be targeted effectively through teacher interventions. Despite evidence linking low school connectedness with increased health risk behaviour, including substance use and violence, research has not yet addressed possible links between connectedness and a broader range of risk taking behaviours (e.g. transport risks) or injury. Method: This study involved background data collection to inform the development of an intervention. A total of 595 Year 9 students (aged 13-14 years) from 5 Southeast Queensland high schools completed questionnaires that included measures of school connectedness, risk taking behaviour, alcohol and other substance use, and injuries. Results: Increased school connectedness was found to be associated with fewer transport risk behaviours and with decreased alcohol and other substance use for both males and females. Similarly, increased school connectedness was associated with fewer passenger and motorcycle injuries for male participants. Both males and females with increased school connectedness reported fewer alcohol related injuries. Implications: These results indicate that school connectedness appears to have protective effects for early adolescence. These findings may also hold for older adolescents and indicate that it may be an important factor to target in school based risk and injury prevention programs. A school connectedness intervention is currently being designed, focusing on teacher professional development. The intervention will be implemented in conjunction with a curriculum based injury prevention program for Year 9 students and will be evaluated through a large scale cluster randomised trial involving 26 schools.

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Purpose – The importance of branding in industrial contexts has increased, yet a comprehensive model of business-to-business (B2B) branding does not exist, nor has there been a thoroughempirical study of the applicability of a full brand equitymodel in a B2B context. This paper aims to discuss the suitability and limitations of Keller’s customer-based brand equity model and tests its applicability in a B2B market. Design/methodology/approach – The study involved the use of semi-structured interviews with senior buyers of technology for electronic tracking of waste management. Findings – Findings suggest that amongst organisational buyers there is a much greater emphasis on the selling organisation, including its corporate brand, credibility and staff, than on individual brands and their associated dimensions. Research limitations/implications – The study investigates real brands with real potential buyers, so there is a risk that the results may represent industry-specific factors that are not representative of all B2B markets. Future research that validates the importance of the Keller elements in other industrial marketing contexts would be beneficial. Practical implications – The findings are relevant for marketing practitioners, researchers and managers as a starting-point for their B2B brand equity research. Originality/value – Detailed insights and key lessons from the field with regard to how B2B brand equity should be conceptualised and measured are offered. A revised brand equity model for B2B application is also presented.

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Aims: Changing behaviour to reduce stroke risk is a difficult prospect made particularly complex because of psychological factors. This study examined predictors of intentions and behaviours to reduce stroke risk in a sample of at-risk individuals, seeking to find how knowledge and health beliefs influenced both intention and actual behaviour to reduce stroke risk. Methods: A repeated measures design was used to assess behavioural intentions at time 1 (T1) and subsequent behaviour (T2). One hundred and twenty six respondents completed an online survey at T1, and behavioural follow-up data were collected from approximately 70 participants 1 month later. Predictors were stroke knowledge, demographic variables, and beliefs about stroke that were derived from an expanded health belief model. Dependent measures were: exercise and weight loss, and intention to engage in these behaviours to reduce stroke risk. Findings: Multiple hierarchical regression analyses showed that, for exercise and weight loss respectively, different health beliefs predicted intention to control stroke risk. The most important exercise-related health beliefs were benefits, susceptibility, and self-efficacy; for weight loss, the most important beliefs were barriers, and to a lesser degree, susceptibility and subjective norm. Conclusions: Health beliefs may play an important role in stroke prevention, particularly beliefs about susceptibility because these emerged for both behaviours. Stroke education and prevention programmes that selectively target the health beliefs relevant to specific behaviours may prove most efficacious.

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Introduction: Work engagement is a recent application of positive psychology and refers to a positive, fulfilling, work-related state of mind characterized by vigor, dedication and absorption. Despite theoretical assumptions, there is little published research on work engagement, due primarily to its recent emergence as a psychological construct. Furthermore, examining work engagement among high-stress occupations, such as police, is useful because police officers are generally characterized as having a high level of work engagement. Previous research has identified job resources (e.g. social support) as antecedents of work engagement. However detailed evaluation of job demands as an antecedent of work engagement within high-stress occupations has been scarce. Thus our second aim was to test job demands (i.e. monitoring demands and problem-solving demands) and job resources (i.e. time control, method control, supervisory support, colleague support, and friend and family support) as antecedents of work engagement among police officers. Method: Data were collected via a self-report online survey from one Australian state police service (n = 1,419). Due to the high number of hypothesized antecedent variables, hierarchical multiple regression analysis was employed rather than structural equation modelling. Results: Work engagement reported by police officers was high. Female officers had significantly higher levels of work engagement than male officers, while officers at mid-level ranks (sergeant) reported the lowest levels of work engagement. Job resources (method control, supervisor support and colleague support) were significant antecedents of three dimensions of work engagement. Only monitoring demands were significant antecedent of the absorption. Conclusion: Having healthy and engaged police officers is important for community security and economic growth. This study identified some common factors which influence work engagement experienced by police officers. However, we also note that excessive work engagement can yield negative outcomes such as psychological distress.

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Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting Time-to-Failure (TTF) and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of assets is estimated using failure time data. However, in most real-life situations and industry applications, the lifetime of assets is influenced by different risk factors, which are called covariates. The fundamental notion in reliability theory is the failure time of a system and its covariates. These covariates change stochastically and may influence and/or indicate the failure time. Research shows that many statistical models have been developed to estimate the hazard of assets or individuals with covariates. An extensive amount of literature on hazard models with covariates (also termed covariate models), including theory and practical applications, has emerged. This paper is a state-of-the-art review of the existing literature on these covariate models in both the reliability and biomedical fields. One of the major purposes of this expository paper is to synthesise these models from both industrial reliability and biomedical fields and then contextually group them into non-parametric and semi-parametric models. Comments on their merits and limitations are also presented. Another main purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review and summarise the current research on the development of the covariate models so as to facilitate the application of more covariate modelling techniques into prognostics and asset health management.

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Edith Penrose’s theory of firm growth postulates that a firm’s current growth rate will be influenced by the adjustment costs of, and changes to a firm’s productive opportunity set arising from, previous growth. Although she explicitly considered the impact of previous organic growth on current organic growth, she was largely silent about the impact of previous acquisitive growth. In this paper we extend Penrose’s work to examine that the relative impact of organic and acquisitive growth on the adjustment costs and productive opportunity set of the firm. Employing a panel of commercially active enterprises in Sweden over a 10 year period our results suggest the following. First, previous organic growth acts as a constraint on current organic growth. Second, previous acquisitive growth has a positive effect on current organic growth. We conclude that organic growth and acquisitive growth constitute two distinct strategic options facing the firm, which have a differential impact on the future organic growth of the firm.