Volatility timing : how best to forecast portfolio exposures

This paper investigates how best to forecast optimal portfolio weights in the context of a volatility timing strategy. It measures the economic value of a number of methods for forming optimal portfolios on the basis of realized volatility. These include the traditional econometric approach of forming portfolios from forecasts of the covariance matrix, and a novel method, where a time series of optimal portfolio weights are constructed from observed realized volatility and directly forecast. The approach proposed here of directly forecasting portfolio weights shows a great deal of merit. Resulting portfolios are of equivalent economic benefit to a number of competing approaches and are more stable across time. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility timing is undertaken in a portfolio allocation context.

Tumor necrosis correlates with angiogenesis and is a predictor of poor prognosis in malignant mesothelioma

Objectives: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a fatal tumor of increasing incidence related to asbestos exposure. Microscopic tumor necrosis (TN) is a poor prognostic factor in solid tumors, but it has not been characterized in MM. We wished to evaluate the incidence of TN in MM and its correlations with clinicopathologic factors, angiogenesis, and survival. Methods: TN was graded in 171 routine formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded hematoxylin-eosinstained tumor sections by two independent observers. Angiogenesis was assessed by the microvessel count (MVC) of CD34 immunostained sections. TN was correlated with survival by Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analysis, and stepwise, multivariate Cox models were used to compare TN with angiogenesis and established prognostic factors and prognostic scoring systems. Results: TN was identified in 39 cases (22.8%) and correlated with low hemoglobin (p = 0.01), thrombocytosis (p = 0.04), and high MVC (p = 0.02). TN was a poor prognostic factor in univariate analysis (p = 0.008). Patients with TN had a median survival of 5.3 months vs 8.3 months in negative cases. Independent indicators of poor prognosis in multivariate analysis were nonepithelioid cell type (p = 0.0001), performance status > 0 (p = 0.007), and increasing MVC (p = 0.004) but not TN. TN contributed independently to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) [p = 0.03] and to the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB) [p = 0.03] prognostic groups in respective multivariate Cox analyses. Conclusions: TN correlates with angiogenesis and is a poor prognostic factor in MM. TN contributes to the EORTC and CALGB prognostic scoring systems.

EGFR expression : associations with outcome and clinicopathological variables in malignant pleural mesothelioma

Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a fatal tumour of increasing incidence which is related to asbestos exposure. This work evaluated expression in MM of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) by immunohistochemistry in 168 tumour sections and its correlations with clinicopathological and biological factors. The microvessel density (MVD) was derived from CD34 immunostained sections. Hematoxylin and eosin stained sections were examined for intratumoural necrosis. COX-2 protein expression was evaluated with semi-quantitative Western blotting of homogenised tumour supernatants (n = 45). EGFR expression was correlated with survival by Kaplan-Meier and log rank analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the effects of EGFR with clinicopathological and biological prognostic factors and prognostic scoring systems. EGFR expression was identified in 74 cases (44%) and correlated with epithelioid cell type (p < 0.0001), good performance status (p < 0.0001), the absence of chest pain (p < 0.0001) and the presence of TN (p = 0.004), but not MVD or COX-2. EGFR expression was a good prognostic factor in univariate analysis (p = 0.01). Independent indicators of poor prognosis in multivariate analysis were non-epithelioid cell type (p = 0.0001), weight loss, performance status and WBC > 8.3 × 10 9 L -1. EGFR status was not an independent prognostic factor. EGFR expression in MM correlates with epithelioid histology and TN. EGFR may be a target for selective therapies in MM. © 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-sectional survey of the health behaviour of southeast Queensland women with cancer-treatment induced menopause : Implications for cancer and primary care nurses

Purpose Women who experience cancer treatment-induced menopause are at risk of long-term chronic morbidity. This risk can be prevented or offset with adherence to health promotion and risk reduction guidelines. The purpose of this study was to explore health behaviours in younger female survivors of cancer and the variables (quality of life and psychological distress) believed to moderate health behaviours. Design Cross-sectional survey of a convenience sample of women (n = 85) in southeast Queensland. Methods Health behaviour and health status were elicited with items from the Australian Health Survey and the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System. The WHO Quality of Life (Brief) measured participants’ self-reported quality of life and their satisfaction with their health. The Brief Symptom Inventory-18 measured psychological distress. Findings Higher self-reported health status was associated with regular exercise and better quality of life. However, a substantial proportion of participants did not engage in the physical activity, dietary or cervical screening practices recommended by Australian guidelines. Conclusions The participants require education regarding the benefits of diet, exercise, weight loss and decreased alcohol intake, as well as information on future health risks and possible comorbidities. These education sessions could be addressed by a nurse-led health promotion model of care at the time of discharge or in the community.

A randomised, concentration-controlled, comparison of standard (5-day) vs. prolonged (15-day) infusions of etoposide phosphate in small-cell lung cancer

Purpose: This randomised trial was designed to investigate the activity and toxicity of continuous infusion etoposide phosphate (EP), targeting a plasma etoposide concentration of either 3 μg/ml for five days (5d) or 1 μg/ml for 15 days (15d), in previously untreated SCLC patients with extensive disease. Patients and methods: EP was used as a single agent. Plasma etoposide concentration was monitored on days 2 and 4 in patients receiving 5d EP and on days 2, 5, 8 and 11 in patients receiving 15d EP, with infusion modification to ensure target concentrations were achieved. Treatment was repeated every 21 days for up to six cycles, with a 25% reduction in target concentration in patients with toxicity. Results: The study has closed early after entry of 29 patients (14 with 5d EP, 15 with 15d EP). Objective responses were seen in seven of 12 (58%, confidence interval (CI): 27%-85%) evaluable patients after 5d EP, and two of 14 (14%, CI: 4%42%) evaluable patients after 15d EP (P = 0.038). Grade 3 or 4 neutropenia or leucopenia during the first cycle of treatment was observed in six of 12 patients after 5d EP and 0/14 patients after 15d EP (P = 0.004), with median nadir WBC count of 2.6 x 109/1 after 5d and 5.0 x 109/1 after 15d EP (P = 0.017). Only one of 49 cycles of 15d EP was associated with grade 3 or worse haematological toxicity, compared to 14 of 61 cycles of 5d EP. Conclusions: Although the number of patients entered into this trial was small, the low activity seen at 1 μg/ml in the 15d arm suggests that this concentration is below the therapeutic window in this setting. Further concentration- controlled studies with prolonged EP infusions are required.

A meshfree-based local Galerkin method with condensation of degree of freedom

Condensation technique of degree of freedom is firstly proposed to improve the computational efficiency of meshfree method with Galerkin weak form. In present method, scattered nodes without connectivity are divided into several subsets by cells with arbitrary shape. The local discrete equations are established over each cell by using moving kriging interpolation, in which the nodes that located in the cell are used for approximation. Then, the condensation technique can be introduced into the local discrete equations by transferring equations of inner nodes to equations of boundary nodes based on cell. In the scheme of present method, the calculation of each cell is carried out by meshfree method with Galerkin weak form, and local search is implemented in interpolation. Numerical examples show that the present method has high computational efficiency and convergence, and good accuracy is also obtained.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as a biomarker for the pharmacological response of PTK787/ZK 222584, an inhibitor of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases, in patients with advanced colorectal cancer and liver metastases: Results from two phase I studies

Purpose: PTK787/ZK 222584 (PTK/ZK), an orally active inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor tyrosine kinases, inhibits VEGF-mediated angiogenesis. The pharmacodynamic effects of PTK/ZK were evaluated by assessing changes in contrast-enhancement parameters of metastatic liver lesions using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated in two ongoing, dose-escalating phase I studies. Patients and Methods: Twenty-six patients had DCE-MRI performed at baseline, day 2, and at the end of each 28-day cycle. Doses of oral PTK/ZK ranged from 50 to 2000 mg once daily. Tumor permeability and vascularity were assessed by calculating the bidirectional transfer constant (Ki). The percentage of baseline Ki (% of baseline Ki) at each time point was compared with pharmacokinetic and clinical end points. Results: A significant negative correlation exists between the % of baseline Ki and increase in PTK/ZK oral dose and plasma levels (P = .01 for oral dose; P = .0001 for area under the plasma concentration curve at day 2). Patients with a best response of stable disease had a significantly greater reduction in Ki at both day 2 and at the end of cycle 1 compared with progressors (mean difference in % of baseline Ki, 47%, P = .004%; and 51%, P = .006; respectively). The difference in % of baseline Ki remained statistically significant after adjusting for baseline WHO performance status. Conclusion: These findings should help to define a biologically active dose of PTK/ZK. These results suggest that DCE-MRI may be a useful biomarker for defining the pharmacological response and dose of angiogenesis inhibitiors, such as PTK/ZK, for further clinical development. © 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

A methodological framework for benchmarking smart transport cities

Besides responding to challenges of rapid urbanization and growing traffic congestion, the development of smart transport systems has attracted much attention in recent times. Many promising initiatives have emerged over the years. Despite these initiatives, there is still a lack of understanding about an appropriate definition of smart transport system. As such, it is challenging to identify the appropriate indicators of ‘smartness’. This paper proposes a comprehensive and practical framework to benchmark cities according to the smartness in their transportation systems. The proposed methodology was illustrated using a set of data collected from 26 cities across the world through web search and contacting relevant transport authorities and agencies. Results showed that London, Seattle and Sydney were among the world’s top smart transport cities. In particular, Seattle and Paris ranked high in smart private transport services while London and Singapore scored high on public transport services. London also appeared to be the smartest in terms of emergency transport services. The key value of the proposed innovative framework lies in a comparative analysis among cities, facilitating city-to-city learning.

Postoperative chemotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Postoperative chemotherapy is currently not recommended for resected non-small cell lung cancer in many countries and centers. Recently, results of several large randomized clinical trials were reported with conflicting evidence. Accordingly, we sought to determine whether postoperative chemotherapy is associated with improved survival compared with that after surgical intervention alone. Methods Randomized clinical trials with cisplatin- or uracil plus ftorafur-containing regimens were included and evaluated separately. A systematic review that included randomized clinical trials performed before 1995 was identified and found to be of adequate quality. Further randomized controlled trials were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register from 1995 through 2004. In addition, the reference lists of articles and conference abstracts were searched. The logarithm of the hazard ratio and its standard error were calculated, and a fixed-effect model was used to combine the estimates. Results There were 7200 patients enrolled in 19 trials included in the analyses. An overall estimate of 13% relative reduction in mortality (95% confidence interval, 7%-19%) was found. There was 11% relative reduction in mortality associated with postoperative cisplatin (95% confidence interval, 4%-18%; P = .004) and 17% associated with uracil plus ftorafur (95% confidence interval, 5%-27%; P = .006) compared with that after surgical intervention alone. This means that there would be an additional survivor at 5 years for 25 patients treated with cisplatin or for 30 patients treated with uracil plus ftorafur. Conclusions Postoperative chemotherapy is associated with improved survival compared with that after surgical intervention alone. Selected patients with completely resected non-small cell lung cancer should be offered chemotherapy. Copyright © 2004 by The American Association for Thoracic Surgery.

Phospho-Akt expression is associated with a favorable outcome in non-small cell lung cancer

Akt, a Serine/Threonine protein kinase, mediates growth factor-associated cell survival. Constitutive activation of Akt (phosphorylated Akt, P-Akt) has been observed in several human cancers, including lung cancer and may be associated with poor prognosis and chemotherapy and radiotherapy resistance. The clinical relevance of P-Akt in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not well described. In the present study, we examined 82 surgically resected snap-frozen and paraffin-embedded stage I to IIIA NSCLC samples for P-Akt and Akt by Western blotting and for P-Akt by immunohistochemistry. P-Akt protein levels above the median, measured using reproducible semiquantitative band densitometry, correlated with a favorable outcome (P = 0.007). Multivariate analysis identified P-Akt as a significant independent favorable prognostic factor (P = 0.004). Although associated with a favorable prognosis, high P-Akt levels correlated with high tumor grade (P = 0.02). Adenocarcinomas were associated with low P-Akt levels (P = 0.039). Akt was not associated with either outcome or clinicopathologic variables. Cytoplasmic (CP-Akt) and nuclear (NP-Akt) P-Akt tumor cell staining was detected in 96% and 42% of cases, respectively. Both CP-Akt and NP-Akt correlated with well-differentiated tumors (P = 0.008 and 0.017, respectively). NP-Akt also correlated with nodal metastases (P = 0.022) and squamous histology (P = 0.037). These results suggest P-Akt expression is a favorable prognostic factor in NSCLC. Immunolocalization of P-Akt, however, may be relevant as NP-Akt was associated with nodal metastases, a known poor prognostic feature in this disease. P-Akt may be a potential novel therapeutic target for the management of NSCLC. © 2005 American Association for Cancer Research.

Hypoxia-inducible factor-1α in non small cell lung cancer: Relation to growth factor, protease and apoptosis pathways

Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α is the regulatory subunit of HIF-1 that is stabilized under hypoxic conditions. Under different circumstances, HIF-1α may promote both tumorigenesis and apoptosis. There is conflicting data on the importance of HIF-1α as a prognostic factor. This study evaluated HIF-1α expression in 172 consecutive patients with stage I-IIIA non small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using standard immunohistochemical techniques. The extent of HIF-1α nuclear immunostaining was determined using light microscopy and the results were analyzed using the median (5%) as a low cut-point and 60% as a high positive cut-point. Using the low cut-point, positive associations were found with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR; p = 0.01), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-9 (p = 0.003), membranous (p < 0.001) and perinuclear (p = 0.004) carbonic anhydrase (CA) IX, pS3 (p = 0.008), T-stage (p = 0.042), tumor necrosis (TN; p < 0.001) and squamous histology (p < 0.001). No significant association was found with Bcl-2 or either N- or overall TMN stage or prognosis. When the high positive cut-point was used, HIF-1α was associated with a poor prognosis (p = 0.034). In conclusion, the associations with EGFR, MMP-9, p53 and CA IX suggest that these factors may either regulate or be regulated by HIF-1α. The association with TN and squamous-type histology, which is relatively more necrotic than other NSCLC types, reflects the role of hypoxia in the regulation of HIF-1α. The prognostic data may reflect a change in the behavior of HIF-1α in increasingly hypoxic environments. © 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Tumour necrosis is an independent prognostic marker in non-small cell lung cancer : correlation with biological variables

Background Tumour necrosis (TN) is recognized to be a consequence of chronic cellular hypoxia. TN and hypoxia correlate with poor prognosis in solid tumours. Methods In a retrospective study the prognostic implications of the extent of TN was evaluated in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and correlated with clinicopathological variables and expression of epidermal growth factor receptor, Bcl-2, p53 and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9). Tissue specimens from 178 surgically resected cases of stage I-IIIA NSCLC with curative intent were studied. The specimens were routinely processed, formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded. TN was graded as extensive or either limited or absent by two independent observers; disagreements were resolved using a double-headed microscope. The degree of reproducibility was estimated by re-interpreting 40 randomly selected cases after a 4 month interval. Results Reproducibility was attained in 36/40 cases, Kappa score=0.8 P<0.001. TN correlated with T-stage (P=0.001), platelet count (P=0.004) and p53 expression (P=0.031). Near significant associations of TN with N-stage (P=0.063) and MMP-9 expression (P=0.058) were seen. No association was found with angiogenesis (P=0.98). On univariate (P=0.0016) and multivariate analysis (P=0.023) TN was prognostic. Conclusion These results indicate that extensive TN reflects an aggressive tumour phenotype in NSCLC and may improve the predictive power of the TMN staging system. The lack of association between TN and angiogenesis may be important although these variables were not evaluated on serial sections. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbonic anhydrase IX expression, a novel surrogate marker of tumor hypoxia, is associated with a poor prognosis in non-small-cell lung cancer

Purpose To evaluate carbonic anhydrase (CA) IX as a surrogate marker of hypoxia and investigate the prognostic significance of different patterns of expression in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods Standard immunohistochemical techniques were used to study CA IX expression in 175 resected NSCLC tumors. CA IX expression was determined by Western blotting in A549 cell lines grown under normoxic and hypoxic conditions. Measurements from microvessels to CA IX positivity were obtained. Results CA IX immunostaining was detected in 81.8% of patients. Membranous (m) (P = .005), cytoplasmic (c) (P = .018), and stromal (P < .001) CA IX expression correlated with the extent of tumor necrosis (TN). The mean distance from vascular endothelium to the start of tumor cell positivity was 90 μm, which equates to an oxygen pressure of 5.77 mmHg. The distance to blood vessels from individual tumor cells or tumor cell clusters was greater if they expressed mCA IX than if they did not (P < .001). Hypoxic exposure of A549 cells for 16 hours enhanced CAIX expression in the nuclear and cytosolic extracts. Perinuclear (p) CA IX (P = .035) was associated with a poor prognosis. In multivariate analysis, pCA IX (P = .004), stage (P = .001), platelet count (P = .011), sex (P = .027), and TN (P = .035) were independent poor prognostic factors. Conclusion These results add weight to the contention that mCA IX is a marker of tumor cell hypoxia. The absence of CA IX staining close to microvessels suggests that these vessels are functionally active. pCA IX expression is representative of an aggressive phenotype. © 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

The roles of plant dsRNA-binding proteins in RNAi-like pathways

Dicers are associated with double-stranded RNA-binding proteins (dsRBPs) in animals. In the plant, Arabidopsis, there are four dicer-like (DCL) proteins and five potential dsRBPs. These DCLs act redundantly and hierarchically. However, we show there is little or no redundancy or hierarchy amongst the DRBs in their DCL interactions. DCL1 operates exclusively with DRB1 to produce micro (mi)RNAs, DCL4 operates exclusively with DRB4 to produce trans-acting (ta) siRNAs and 21nt siRNAs from viral RNA. DCL2 and DCL3 produce viral siRNAs without requiring assistance from any dsRBP. DRB2, DRB3 and DRB5 appear unnecessary for mi-, tasi-, viral si-, or heterochromatinising siRNA production but act redundantly in a developmental pathway. © 2008 Federation of European Biochemical Societies.