The cross-currency hedging performance of implied versus statistical forecasting models

This article examines the ability of several models to generate optimal hedge ratios. Statistical models employed include univariate and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) models, and exponentially weighted and simple moving averages. The variances of the hedged portfolios derived using these hedge ratios are compared with those based on market expectations implied by the prices of traded options. One-month and three-month hedging horizons are considered for four currency pairs. Overall, it has been found that an exponentially weighted moving-average model leads to lower portfolio variances than any of the GARCH-based, implied or time-invariant approaches.

Greater impact of dietary fat manipulation than apolipoprotein E genotype on ex-vivo cytokine production – insights from the SATgenε study

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype is believed to play an important role in cardiovascular risk. APOE4 carriers have been associated with higher blood lipid levels and a more pro-inflammatory state compared with APOE3/E3 individuals. Although dietary fat composition has been considered to modulate the inflammatory state in humans, very little is known about how APOE genotype can impact on this response. In a follow-up to the main SATgene study, we aimed to explore the effects of APOE genotype, as well as, dietary fat manipulation on ex vivo cytokine production. Blood samples were collected from a subset of SATgene participants (n = 52/88), prospectively recruited according to APOE genotype (n = 26 E3/E3 and n = 26 E3/E4) after low-fat (LF), high saturated fat (HSF) and HSF with 3.45 g docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) dietary periods (each diet eight weeks in duration assigned in the same order) for the measurement of ex vivo cytokine production using whole blood culture (WBC). Concentrations of IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and TNF-alpha were measured in WBC supernatant samples after stimulation for 24 h with either 0.05 or 1 lg/ml of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Cytokine levels were not influenced by genotype, whereas, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on TNF-a and IL-10 production; TNF-a concentration was higher after consumption of the HSF diet compared with baseline and the LF diet (P < 0.05), whereas, IL-10 concentration was higher after the LF diet compared with baseline (P < 0.05). In conclusion, our study has revealed the amount and type of dietary fat can significantly modulate the production of TNF-a and IL-10 by ex vivo LPS-stimulated WBC samples obtained from normolipidaemic subjects.

Brief communication: a proposed method for the assessment of pubertal stage in human skeletal remains using cervical vertebrae maturation.

The assessment of age-at-death in non-adult skeletal remains is under constant review. However, in many past societies an individual's physical maturation may have been more important in social terms than their exact age, particularly during the period of adolescence. In a recent article (Shapland and Lewis: Am J Phys Anthropol 151 (2013) 302–310) highlighted a set of dental and skeletal indicators that may be useful in mapping the progress of the pubertal growth spurt. This article presents a further skeletal indicator of adolescent development commonly used by modern clinicians: cervical vertebrae maturation (CVM). This method is applied to a collection of 594 adolescents from the medieval cemetery of St. Mary Spital, London. Analysis reveals a potential delay in ages of attainment of the later CVM stages compared with modern adolescents, presumably reflecting negative environmental conditions for growth and development. The data gathered on CVM is compared to other skeletal indicators of pubertal maturity and long bone growth from this site to ascertain the usefulness of this method on archaeological collections.

Hydrogen sulfide inhibits Cav3.2 T-type Ca2+ channels

The importance of H2S as a physiological signaling molecule continues to develop, and ion channels are emerging as a major family of target proteins through which H2S exerts many actions. The purpose of the present study was to investigate its effects on T-type Ca2+ channels. Using patch-clamp electrophysiology, we demonstrate that the H2S donor, NaHS (10 μM-1 mM) selectively inhibits Cav3.2 T-type channels heterologously expressed in HEK293 cells, whereas Cav3.1 and Cav3.3 channels were unaffected. The sensitivity of Cav3.2 channels to H2S required the presence of the redox-sensitive extracellular residue H191, which is also required for tonic binding of Zn2+ to this channel. Chelation of Zn2+ with N,N,N',N'-tetra-2-picolylethylenediamine prevented channel inhibition by H2S and also reversed H2S inhibition when applied after H2S exposure, suggesting that H2S may act via increasing the affinity of the channel for extracellular Zn2+ binding. Inhibition of native T-type channels in 3 cell lines correlated with expression of Cav3.2 and not Cav3.1 channels. Notably, H2S also inhibited native T-type (primarily Cav3.2) channels in sensory dorsal root ganglion neurons. Our data demonstrate a novel target for H2S regulation, the T-type Ca2+ channel Cav3.2, and suggest that such modulation cannot account for the pronociceptive effects of this gasotransmitter.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

Estimating age of mature adults from the degeneration of the sternal end of the clavicle

The sternal end of the clavicle has been illustrated to be useful in aging young adults, however, no studies have investigated what age-related changes occur to the sternal end post epiphyseal fusion. In this study, three morphological features (i.e., surface topography, porosity, and osteophyte formation) were examined and scored using 564 clavicles of individuals of European ancestry (n = 318 males; n = 246 females), with known ages of 40+ years, from four documented skeletal collections: Hamann-Todd, Pretoria, St. Bride's, and Coimbra. An ordinal scoring method was developed for each of the three traits. Surface topography showed the strongest correlation with age, and composite scores (formed by summing the three separate trait scores) indicated progressive degeneration of the surface with increasing chronological age. Linear regression analyses were performed on the trait scores to produce pooled-sample age estimation equations. Blind tests of the composite score method and regression formulae on 56 individuals, aged 40+ years, from Christ Church Spitalfields, suggest accuracies of 96.4% for both methods. These preliminary results display the first evidence of the utility of the sternal end of the clavicle in aging older adult individuals. However, in the current format, these criteria should only be applied to individuals already identified as over 40 years in order to refine the age ranges used for advanced age. These findings do suggest the sternal end of the clavicle has potential to aid age estimates beyond the traditional "mature adult" age category (i.e., 46+ years), and provides several suggestions for future research.

Greenhouse gas emissions from waste management—assessment of quantification methods

Of the many sources of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, solid waste is the only one for which management decisions are undertaken primarily by municipal governments themselves and is hence often the largest component of cities’ corporate inventories. It is essential that decision-makers select an appropriate quantification methodology and have an appreciation of methodological strengths and shortcomings. This work compares four different waste emissions quantification methods, including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1996 guidelines, IPCC 2006 guidelines, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Waste Reduction Model (WARM), and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities- Partners for Climate Protection (FCM-PCP) quantification tool. Waste disposal data for the greater Toronto area (GTA) in 2005 are used for all methodologies; treatment options (including landfill, incineration, compost, and anaerobic digestion) are examined where available in methodologies. Landfill was shown to be the greatest source of GHG emissions, contributing more than three-quarters of total emissions associated with waste management. Results from the different landfill gas (LFG) quantification approaches ranged from an emissions source of 557 kt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) (FCM-PCP) to a carbon sink of −53 kt CO2e (EPA WARM). Similar values were obtained between IPCC approaches. The IPCC 2006 method was found to be more appropriate for inventorying applications because it uses a waste-in-place (WIP) approach, rather than a methane commitment (MC) approach, despite perceived onerous data requirements for WIP. MC approaches were found to be useful from a planning standpoint; however, uncertainty associated with their projections of future parameter values limits their applicability for GHG inventorying. MC and WIP methods provided similar results in this case study; however, this is case specific because of similarity in assumptions of present and future landfill parameters and quantities of annual waste deposited in recent years being relatively consistent.

Do jumps matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from energy markets

This paper characterizes the dynamics of jumps and analyzes their importance for volatility forecasting. Using high-frequency data on four prominent energy markets, we perform a model-free decomposition of realized variance into its continuous and discontinuous components. We find strong evidence of jumps in energy markets between 2007 and 2012. We then investigate the importance of jumps for volatility forecasting. To this end, we estimate and analyze the predictive ability of several Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) models that explicitly capture the dynamics of jumps. Conducting extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, we establish that explicitly modeling jumps does not significantly improve forecast accuracy. Our results are broadly consistent across our four energy markets, forecasting horizons, and loss functions

Transcriptomics and proteomics show that selenium affects inflammation, ctoskeleton, and cancer pathways in human rectal biopsies

Epidemiologic studies highlight the potential role of dietary selenium (Se) in colorectal cancer prevention. Our goal was to elucidate whether expression of factors crucial for colorectal homoeostasis is affected by physiologic differences in Se status. Using transcriptomics and proteomics followed by pathway analysis, we identified pathways affected by Se status in rectal biopsies from 22 healthy adults, including 11 controls with optimal status (mean plasma Se = 1.43 μM) and 11 subjects with suboptimal status (mean plasma Se = 0.86 μM). We observed that 254 genes and 26 proteins implicated in cancer (80%), immune function and inflammatory response (40%), cell growth and proliferation (70%), cellular movement, and cell death (50%) were differentially expressed between the 2 groups. Expression of 69 genes, including selenoproteins W1 and K, which are genes involved in cytoskeleton remodelling and transcription factor NFκB signaling, correlated significantly with Se status. Integrating proteomics and transcriptomics datasets revealed reduced inflammatory and immune responses and cytoskeleton remodelling in the suboptimal Se status group. This is the first study combining omics technologies to describe the impact of differences in Se status on colorectal expression patterns, revealing that suboptimal Se status could alter inflammatory signaling and cytoskeleton in human rectal mucosa and so influence cancer risk.

The land-atmosphere water flux in the tropics

Tropical vegetation is a major source of global land surface evapotranspiration, and can thus play a major role in global hydrological cycles and global atmospheric circulation. Accurate prediction of tropical evapotranspiration is critical to our understanding of these processes under changing climate. We examined the controls on evapotranspiration in tropical vegetation at 21 pan-tropical eddy covariance sites, conducted a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of 13 evapotranspiration models at these sites, and assessed the ability to scale up model estimates of evapotranspiration for the test region of Amazonia. Net radiation was the strongest determinant of evapotranspiration (mean evaporative fraction was 0.72) and explained 87% of the variance in monthly evapotranspiration across the sites. Vapor pressure deficit was the strongest residual predictor (14%), followed by normalized difference vegetation index (9%), precipitation (6%) and wind speed (4%). The radiation-based evapotranspiration models performed best overall for three reasons: (1) the vegetation was largely decoupled from atmospheric turbulent transfer (calculated from X decoupling factor), especially at the wetter sites; (2) the resistance-based models were hindered by difficulty in consistently characterizing canopy (and stomatal) resistance in the highly diverse vegetation; (3) the temperature-based models inadequately captured the variability in tropical evapotranspiration. We evaluated the potential to predict regional evapotranspiration for one test region: Amazonia. We estimated an Amazonia-wide evapotranspiration of 1370 mm yr(-1), but this value is dependent on assumptions about energy balance closure for the tropical eddy covariance sites; a lower value (1096 mm yr(-1)) is considered in discussion on the use of flux data to validate and interpolate models.

ON THE DOUBLE NATURED SOLUTIONS OF THE TWO-TEMPERATURE EXTERNAL SOFT PHOTON COMPTONIZED ACCRETION DISKS

We have analyzed pair production in the innermost region of a two-temperature external soft photon Comptonized accretion disk. We have shown that, if the viscosity parameter is greater than a critical value alpha(c), the solution to the disk equation is double valued: one, advection dominated, and the other, radiation dominated. When alpha <= alpha(c), the accretion rate has to satisfy (m) over dot(1) <= (m) over dot <= (m) over dot(c) in order to have two steady-state solutions. It is shown that these critical parameters (m) over dot(1), (m) over dot(c) are functions of r, alpha, and theta(e), and alpha(c) is a function of r and theta(e). Depending on the combination of the parameters, the advection-dominated solution may not be physically consistent. It is also shown that the electronic temperature is maximum at the onset of the thermal instability, from which results this inner region. These solutions are stable against perturbations in the electron temperature and in the density of pairs.

Revision and cladistic analysis of Isoctenus and description of a new neotropical genus (Araneae, Ctenidae, Cteninae)

A cladistic analysis was applied to test the monophyly of the genus Isoctenus. The data matrix comprised 28 taxa scored for 53 morphological and two behavioural characters. The analysis resulted in two equally parsimonious trees of 89 steps. The strict consensus was used to discuss the relationships of Isoctenus and related Cteninae genera. Ctenopsis Schmidt is synonymized with Isoctenus. Isoctenus foliifer Bertkau, I. strandi Mello-Leitao, I. eupalaestrus Mello-Leitao, I. janeirus (Walckenaer), I. coxalis (Pickard-Cambridge), I. corymbus Polotow, Brescovit & Pellegatti-Franco and I. malabaris Polotow, Brescovit & Ott are maintained in Isoctenus. Four species currently included in Ctenus are transferred to Isoctenus: I. griseolus (Mello-Leitao) comb. nov., I. taperae (Mello-Leitao) comb. nov., I. herteli (Mello-Leitao) comb. nov. and I. minusculus (Keyserling) comb. nov. The following specific names are synonymized: Ctenus sanguineus Walckenaer, C. semiornatus Mello-Leitao and Ctenopsis stellata Schmidt with Isoctenus janeirus (Walckenaer), Ctenus mourei Mello-Leitao with Isoctenus herteli (Mello-Leitao) and Ctenus pauper Mello-Leitao with Isoctenus strandi Mello-Leitao. Isoctenus sigma Schenkel, described from French Guiana, is transferred to Ctenus. Four species are newly described: Isoctenus areia sp. nov. from Paraiba, Brazil, I. charada sp. nov. and I. segredo sp. nov. from Parana, Brazil, and I. ordinario sp. nov. from south and south-eastern Brazil and north-eastern Argentina. Isoctenus latevittatus Caporiacco is considered species inquirenda. Parabatinga gen. nov. is proposed to include Ctenus brevipes Keyserling. The following synonymies are established: Ctenus taeniatus Keyserling, C. tatarandensis Tullgren, C. anisitsi Strand, C. atrivulvus Strand, C. mentor Strand, C. brevipes brevilabris Strand, Isoctenus masculus Mello-Leitao and Ctenus birabeni Mello-Leitao with Parabatinga brevipes (Keyserling) comb. nov. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 155, 583-614.

Coding behavioural data for cladistic analysis: using dynamic homology without parsimony

Many of the controversies around the concept of homology rest on the subjectivity inherent to primary homology propositions. Dynamic homology partially solves this problem, but there has been up to now scant application of it outside of the molecular domain. This is probably because morphological and behavioural characters are rich in properties, connections and qualities, so that there is less space for conflicting character delimitations. Here we present a new method for the direct optimization of behavioural data, a method that relies on the richness of this database to delimit the characters, and on dynamic procedures to establish character state identity. We use between-species congruence in the data matrix and topological stability to choose the best cladogram. We test the methodology using sequences of predatory behaviour in a group of spiders that evolved the highly modified predatory technique of spitting glue onto prey. The cladogram recovered is fully compatible with previous analyses in the literature, and thus the method seems consistent. Besides the advantage of enhanced objectivity in character proposition, the new procedure allows the use of complex, context-dependent behavioural characters in an evolutionary framework, an important step towards the practical integration of the evolutionary and ecological perspectives on diversity. (C) The Willi Hennig Society 2010.

Transporters involved in glucose and water absorption in the Dysdercus peruvianus (Hemiptera: Pyrrhocoridae) anterior midgut

Little is known about insect intestinal sugar absorption, in spite of the recent findings, and even less has been published regarding water absorption. The aim of this study was to shed light on putative transporters of water and glucose in the insect midgut Glucose and water absorptions by the anterior ventriculus of Dysdercus peruvianus midgut were determined by feeding the insects with a glucose and a non-absorbable dye solution, followed by periodical dissection of insects and analysis of ventricular contents. Glucose absorption decreases glucose/dye ratios and water absorption increases dye concentrations. Water and glucose transports are activated (water 50%, glucose 33%) by 50 mM K(2)SO(4) and are inhibited (water 46%, glucose 82%) by 0.2 mM phloretin, the inhibitor of the facilitative hexose transporter (GLUT) or are inhibited (water 45%, glucose 35%) by 0.1 mM phlorizin, the inhibitor of the Na(+)-glucose cotransporter (SGLT). The results also showed that the putative SGLT transports about two times more water relative to glucose than the putative GLUT. These results mean that D. peruvianus uses a GLUT-like transporter and an SGLT-like transporter (with K(+) instead of Na(+)) to absorb dietary glucose and water. A cDNA library from D. peruvianus midgut was screened and we found one sequence homologous to GLUT1, named DpGLUT, and another to a sodium/solute symporter, named DpSGLT. Semi-quantitative RT-PCR studies revealed that DpGLUT and DpSGLTs mRNA were expressed in the anterior midgut, where glucose and water are absorbed, but not in fat body, salivary gland and Malpighian tubules. This is the first report showing the involvement of putative GLUT and SGLT in both water and glucose midgut absorption in insects. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic supplementation of beta-hydroxy-beta methylbutyrate (HM beta) increases the activity of the GH/IGF-I axis and induces hyperinsulinemia in rats

Objective: Beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate (HM beta) is a metabolite of leucine widely used for improving sports performance. Although limp is recognized to promote anabolic or anti-catabolic effects on protein metabolism, the impact of its long-term use on skeletal muscle and/or genes that control the skeletal protein balance is not fully known. This study aimed to investigate whether chronic HM beta treatment affects the activity of GH/IGF-I axis and skeletal muscle IGF-I and myostatin mRNA expression. Design: Rats were treated with HK beta (320 mg/kg BW) or vehicle, by gavage, for 4 weeks, and killed by decapitation. Blood was collected for evaluation of serum insulin, glucose and IGF-I concentrations. Samples of pituitary, liver, extensor digitorum longus (EDL) and soleus muscles were collected for total RNA or protein extraction to evaluate the expression of pituitary growth hormone (GH) gene (mRNA and protein), hepatic insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) mRNA, skeletal muscle IGF-I and myostatin mRNA by Northern blotting/real time-PCR, or Western blotting. Results: Chronic HM beta treatment increased the content of pituitary GH mRNA and GH, hepatic IGF-I mRNA and serum IGF-I concentration. No changes were detected on skeletal muscle IGF-I and myostatin mRNA expression. However, the HIM-treated rats although normoglycemic, exhibited hyperinsulinemia. Conclusions: The data presented herein extend the body of evidence on the potential role of HM beta-treatment in stimulating GH/IGF-I axis activity. In spite of this effect, HM beta supplementation also induces an apparent insulin resistance state which might limit the beneficial aspects of the former results, at least in rats under normal nutritional status and health conditions. (C) 2010 Growth Hormone Research Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.