Progress Report No. 7

Progress report of the Biomedical Computer Laboratory, covering period 1 July 1970 to 30 June 1971.

Development of a student workbook in conjunction with the Communication Skills Training for Professionals and Paraprofessionals Program

This paper discusses Communication Skills Training for Professionals and Paraprofessionals (ComPro), a program that trains professionals and paraprofessionals to communicate more effectively with their hearing-impaired clientele. This study assesses the usefulness of the ComPro in-service program and student workbook.

Derechos humanos y democracia: Complementariedades y tensiones

Democracia y Derechos Humanos son dos dimensiones relacionadas entre si de muy diversas formas. Pueden ser vistas como complementarias, pero también como realidades en fuerte tensión y hasta contradicción. En cuanto realidades complementarias, puede plantearse, aunque no sin discusión, que sólo procesos democráticos de decisión pueden legitimar políticamente estos derechos. Por tanto tales derechos, o al menos su vigencia, surgirían de la deliberación y el consenso de los afectados e interesados. Pero a su vez, los derechos también pueden ser vistos como condiciones indispensables para el ejercicio democrático. Así, libertades como las de pensamiento, expresión, reunión o asociación serían requisitos ineludibles no sólo para que pueda existir democracia sino para que ésta a su vez cree condiciones de justicia social. En cuanto realidades en tensión, los derechos humanos pueden ser vistos como límites a la democracia, especialmente si ésta última se entiende como voluntad política de la mayoría. Los derechos humanos, al expresar valores fundamentales quedarían sustraídos de las esferas tanto del mercado como del poder, integrando una zona de lo que no se discute. Los derechos humanos, en tal sentido erigirían, frente a estas mayorías coyunturales, vallas en principio infranqueables de defensa de las minorías y de los individuos frente a la mayoría. Estos derechos vienen a constituir lo que Ferrajoli ha llamado una democracia sustancial, esto es un sistema en el cual los principios formales de la democracia política sobre quién y cómo se decide, es decir el principio de soberanía popular y la regla de mayoría, quedan subordinados a principios sustanciales expresados en los derechos constitucionales, es decir subordinados a lo que no es lícito decidir y a lo que no es lícito no decidir.

Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperature resolution in a regional atmosphere model

A high resolution regional atmosphere model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to the spatial and temporal resolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) data used as a lower boundary condition. The model is run over an unusually large domain covering all of the North Atlantic and Europe, and is shown to produce a very good simulation of the observed storm track structure. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries with 15–20 years of data from the ERA-40 reanalysis, and at the lower boundary by SST data of differing resolution. The impacts of increasing spatial and temporal resolution are assessed separately, and in both cases increasing the resolution leads to subtle, but significant changes in the storm track. In some, but not all cases these changes act to reduce the small storm track biases seen in the model when it is forced with low-resolution SSTs. In addition there are several clear mesoscale responses to increased spatial SST resolution, with surface heat fluxes and convective precipitation increasing by 10–20% along the Gulf Stream SST gradient.

Lava production at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: 1995-2009

[1] We estimate that about 1 km3 of andesitic lava has been produced at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 2009. There were three major episodes of extrusion, each lasting about 2 to 3.5 years and producing about 280 to 340 M m3 of lava, and one minor episode. Our estimates account for the dense rock equivalent volumetric contributions from the core and talus components of the lava dome, pyroclastic flow deposits and air-fall deposits. By 2005 at least two thirds of the erupted mass has already entered the sea. The average lava flux across the major extrusion episodes has been 3–5 m3s−1, with short-period (10–15 days) pulses up to 10–20 m3s−1. The first and third episodes of extrusion show similar flux histories suggesting similar behaviour of the system ten years apart. Waning flux towards the end of each episode may be caused by declining overpressure in the magma reservoir.

Parameter estimation using a particle method: inferring mixing coefficients from sea level observations

This paper presents a first attempt to estimate mixing parameters from sea level observations using a particle method based on importance sampling. The method is applied to an ensemble of 128 members of model simulations with a global ocean general circulation model of high complexity. Idealized twin experiments demonstrate that the method is able to accurately reconstruct mixing parameters from an observed mean sea level field when mixing is assumed to be spatially homogeneous. An experiment with inhomogeneous eddy coefficients fails because of the limited ensemble size. This is overcome by the introduction of local weighting, which is able to capture spatial variations in mixing qualitatively. As the sensitivity of sea level for variations in mixing is higher for low values of mixing coefficients, the method works relatively well in regions of low eddy activity.

A new route to furanoeremophilane sesquiterpenoids. Synthesis of Senecio metabolites (+/-)-6-hydroxyeuryopsin, (+/-)-1,10-epoxy-6-hydroxyeuryopsin, (+/-)-toluccanolide A and (+/-)-toluccanolide C

A new strategy for the synthesis of sesquiterpenoids of the furanoeremophilane family was developed in which the tricyclic nucleus was assembled in an A + C -> A - C -> A - B - C sequence. The A - C connection was made via coupling of a cyclohexenylmethyl bromide with a stannylfuran under "ligandless" Stille conditions, and the key cyclization which closed ring B was accomplished with complete stereocontrol by intramolecular formylation of a 2-silylfuran in the presence of trimethylsilyl triflate. This route was used to complete the first total syntheses of the furanoeremophilane 6-hydroxyeuryopsin and the eremophilenolides toluccanolide A and toluccanolide C, as well as a formal synthesis of 1,10-epoxy-6-hydroxyeuryopsin.

A model for comparative analysis of inventory costs of JIT and EOQ purchasing in the ready mixed concrete industry

A model for comparing the inventory costs of purchasing under the economic order quantity (EOQ) system and the just-in-time (JIT) order purchasing system in existing literature concluded that JIT purchasing was virtually always the preferable inventory ordering system especially at high level of annual demand. By expanding the classical EOQ model, this paper shows that it is possible for the EOQ system to be more cost effective than the JIT system once the inventory demand approaches the EOQ-JIT cost indifference point. The case study conducted in the ready-mixed concrete industry in Singapore supported this proposition.

Regime dependent changes in global precipitation

Assessment of changes in precipitation (P) as a function of percentiles of surface temperature (T) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (ω) are presented, considering present-day simulations and observational estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA Interim). There is a tendency for models to overestimate P in the warm, subsiding regimes compared to GPCP, in some cases by more than 100%, while many models underestimate P in the moderate temperature regimes. Considering climate change projections between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099, responses in P are characterised by dP/dT ≥ 4%/K over the coldest 10–20% of land points and over warm, ascending ocean points while P declines over the warmest, descending regimes (dP/dT ∼ − 4%/K for model ensemble means). The reduced Walker circulation limits this contrasting dP/dT response in the tropical wet and dry regimes only marginally. Around 70% of the global surface area exhibits a consistent sign for dP/dT in at least 6 out of a 7-member model ensemble when considering P composites in terms of dynamic regime.