BREEDING BIOLOGY OF KELP GULLS ON THE BRAZILIAN COAST

We studied clutch size, hatching and fledging success, and time necessary for chick Kelp Gulls (Larus dominicanus) to leave the nest throughout two breeding seasons (2004 and 2005) on Guararitama Island, Sao Paulo, Brazil. We followed 93 nests in 2004 and 97 nests in 2005. The average (+/- SD) clutch size was 2.09 +/- 0.64 in 2004 and 1.93 +/- 0.59 in 2005. Hatching success was 74% in 2004 and 53% in 2005, and fledging success was 54% in 2004 and 58% in 2005. Chicks grew quickly, following the linear equation y(t) = 61g + 17.03g X age (in days), and began to fly at 40 days. Received 11 August 2008. Accepted 28 August 2009.

The genetic effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes over a tropical latitudinal gradient: diversification of an Atlantic Forest passerine

The increase in biodiversity from high to low latitudes is a widely recognized biogeographical pattern. According to the latitudinal gradient hypothesis (LGH), this pattern was shaped by differential effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes across a latitudinal gradient. Here, we evaluate the effects of climatic changes across a tropical latitudinal gradient and its implications to diversification of an Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic passerine. We studied the intraspecific diversification and historical demography of Sclerurus scansor, based on mitochondrial (ND2, ND3 and cytb) and nuclear (FIB7) gene sequences. Phylogenetic analyses recovered three well-supported clades associated with distinct latitudinal zones. Coalescent-based methods were applied to estimate divergence times and changes in effective population sizes. Estimates of divergence times indicate that intraspecific diversification took place during Middle-Late Pleistocene. Distinct demographic scenarios were identified, with the southern lineage exhibiting a clear signature of demographic expansion, while the central one remained more stable. The northern lineage, contrasting with LGH predictions, exhibited a clear sign of a recent bottleneck. Our results suggest that different AF regions reacted distinctly, even in opposite ways, under the same climatic period, producing simultaneously favourable scenarios for isolation and contact among populations.

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species` sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The game of contacts: Estimating the social visibility of groups

Estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations is a challenging and important problem that occurs frequently in social science, public health, and public policy. This problem is particularly pressing in HIV/AIDS research because estimates of the sizes of the most at-risk populations-illicit drug users, men who have sex with men, and sex workers-are needed for designing, evaluating, and funding programs to curb the spread of the disease. A promising new approach in this area is the network scale-up method, which uses information about the personal networks of respondents to make population size estimates. However, if the target population has low social visibility, as is likely to be the case in HIV/AIDS research, scale-up estimates will be too low. In this paper we develop a game-like activity that we call the game of contacts in order to estimate the social visibility of groups, and report results from a study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil (n = 294). The game produced estimates of social visibility that were consistent with qualitative expectations but of surprising magnitude. Further, a number of checks suggest that the data are high-quality. While motivated by the specific problem of population size estimation, our method could be used by researchers more broadly and adds to long-standing efforts to combine the richness of social network analysis with the power and scale of sample surveys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Fuzzy Logic Control of GeneticAlgorithm Probabilities

Genetic algorithms are commonly used to solve combinatorial optimizationproblems. The implementation evolves using genetic operators (crossover, mutation,selection, etc.). Anyway, genetic algorithms like some other methods have parameters(population size, probabilities of crossover and mutation) which need to be tune orchosen.In this paper, our project is based on an existing hybrid genetic algorithmworking on the multiprocessor scheduling problem. We propose a hybrid Fuzzy-Genetic Algorithm (FLGA) approach to solve the multiprocessor scheduling problem.The algorithm consists in adding a fuzzy logic controller to control and tunedynamically different parameters (probabilities of crossover and mutation), in anattempt to improve the algorithm performance. For this purpose, we will design afuzzy logic controller based on fuzzy rules to control the probabilities of crossoverand mutation. Compared with the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA), the resultsclearly demonstrate that the FLGA method performs significantly better.

A Spatial Comparison of Short and Long Term Migration Trends in China

China’s floating population, those individuals who have migrated between counties or provinces for a period of longer than 6 months, account for 79 million individuals. If intracounty migration is also included, the number jumps to 145 million individuals or over 11% of the total population. This study examines the geographical differences in short and long term migration using ArcGIS to manipulate the spatial GIS data. The study shows that both short and long term migration (in absolute numbers) occurs more frequently near cities and in coastal regions. However, by normalizing the data by population size, the study eliminates the problems of population size on the size of the migrants. Using this normalized data, the study finds that western and northern counties have a large number of migrants present relative to the size of the population. Determining where this floating population migrates helps explain regional inequalities in employment opportunities.

Limited memory and the essentiality of money

This paper investigates the relationship between memory and the essentiality of money. We consider a random matching economy with a large finite population in which commitment is not possible and memory is limited in the sense that only a fraction m E(0; 1) of the population has publicly observable histories. We show that no matter how limited memory is, there exists a social norm that achieves the first best regardless of the population size. In other words, money can fail to be essential irrespective of the amount of memory in the economy. This suggests that the emphasis on limited memory as a fundamental friction for money to be essential deserves a deeper examination.

A note on convergence of Peck-Shell and Green-Lin mechanisms in the Diamond-Dybvig model

We study the effects of population size in the Peck-Shell analysis of bank runs. We find that a contract featuring equal-treatment for almost all depositors of the same type approximates the optimum. Because the approximation also satisfies Green-Lin incentive constraints, when the planner discloses positions in the queue, welfare in these alternative specifications are sandwiched. Disclosure, however, it is not needed since our approximating contract is not subject to runs.

Essays on monetary and banking theory

Esta tese de Doutorado é dedicada ao estudo de instabilidade financeira e dinâmica em Teoria Monet ária. E demonstrado que corridas banc árias são eliminadas sem custos no modelo padrão de teoria banc ária quando a popula ção não é pequena. É proposta uma extensão em que incerteza agregada é mais severa e o custo da estabilidade financeira é relevante. Finalmente, estabelece-se otimalidade de transições na distribui ção de moeda em economias em que oportunidades de trocas são escassas e heterogêneas. Em particular, otimalidade da inflação depende dos incentivos dinâmicos proporcionados por tais transi ções. O capí tulo 1 estabelece o resultado de estabilidade sem custos para economias grandes ao estudar os efeitos do tamanho populacional na an álise de corridas banc árias de Peck & Shell. No capí tulo 2, otimalidade de dinâmica é estudada no modelo de monet ário de Kiyotaki & Wright quando a sociedade é capaz de implementar uma polí tica inflacion ária. Apesar de adotar a abordagem de desenho de mecanismos, este capí tulo faz um paralelo com a an álise de Sargent & Wallace (1981) ao destacar efeitos de incentivos dinâmicos sobre a interação entre as polí ticas monet ária e fiscal. O cap ítulo 3 retoma o tema de estabilidade fi nanceira ao quanti car os custos envolvidos no desenho ótimo de um setor bancário à prova de corridas e ao propor uma estrutura informacional alternativa que possibilita bancos insolventes. A primeira an álise mostra que o esquema de estabilidade ótima exibe altas taxas de juros de longo prazo e a segunda que monitoramento imperfeito pode levar a corridas bancárias com insolvência.

Social norms and money

In an economy where there is no double coincidence of wants and without recordkeeping of past transactions, money is usually seen as the only mechanism that can support exchange. In this paper, we show that, as long as the population is finite and agents are sufficiently patient, a social norm establishing gift-exchange can substitute for money. Notwithstanding, for a given discount factor, the growth of the population size eventually leads to the breakdown of the social norm, while money still works. 1 Introduction

Aerial line transect survey to estimate abundance of marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) (Illiger, 1815)

A população de cervo-do-pantanal (Blastocerus dichotomus) está drasticamente reduzida no Brasil. O nosso objetivo foi o de estimar a abundância do cervo-do-pantanal na bacia do Rio Paraná e discutir a metodologia aplicada. Os resultados darão suporte para uma análise do impacto do enchimento da represa de Porto Primavera sobre essa população. Sessenta e nove animais foram registrados através de sobrevôo utilizando-se a metodologia de transecção linear com amostragem das distâncias. Os dados não corrigidos resultaram em uma densidade estimada de 0,0035ind/ha e uma população de 636 indivíduos. A correção de g para os animais que não foram vistos apresentou uma densidade de 0,0049 ind/ha e uma abundância de 896 (CV=0,27) indivíduos. A metodologia foi aplicada com sucesso na estimativa de cervo-do-pantanal. Esse resultado é importante para avaliarmos a população do cervo-do-pantanal na área e para futuramente analisarmos o impacto do enchimento da represa.

Processo participativo da população na construção da agenda 21 local:o caso de Parnamirim

One of the agreements assumed at the conference of the United Nations for the Environments and Development which took place in Rio de Janeiro in 1992; through Global Agenda 21, was that the signatory countries would create a national Politics of sustainable development, by means of their national Agenda 21. Demonstrating the relevance of municipal districts and the local communities, during the definitions of new development standards compromised to the transformation of the society, socia1ly and environmentally well-balanced world, it was also agreed on that places under the responsibilities of the municipal districts would promote their own local Agenda 21. We need to point out though that the government has the prerogative and the responsibly of facilitating the population participation process in the construction of national and local Agenda. This made it possible again, to plan the scheming process directly towards the insertion of population participation at the different levels, involving the entire local sectors while establishing a new local partnership through the local municipal government. Thus, we decide to verify the participation of the population in the construction of their local Agenda 21, choosing for the study case Parnamirim municipality from RN. The question which originated the objectives and analysis was formulated on the following terms: Up to which stage was the process of population participation effective in the elaboration of Parnamirims's local Agenda 21? Based on this uneasiness, it was defined as the general objective, the verification of population participation process during the elaboration of Parnamirims's local Agenda 21, aiming at its effectiveness as well as specific objectives; to identify the population representivity, the construction of the local AG 21 in order to identify on which level is the participation based, to verify the strategies used in order to promote the process participation, to identify the motives guiding those involved in the construction of the local Agenda 21. This case study at Parnamirim municipal district demonstrated that there was effective population participation as far as the local Agenda 21 is concerned

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models

Fermentative and microbiological profile of marandu-grass ensiled with citrus pulp pellets

Forragens com alta umidade e baixa concentração de carboidratos solúveis, como é o caso dos capins tropicais, podem conduzir a condições desfavoráveis para a produção de silagens de qualidade satisfatória. Esse estudo objetivou conhecer o perfil fermentativo e microbiológico de silagens de capim-Marandu [Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst ex. A. Rich) Stapf cv. Marandu], colhido com 58 dias de crescimento, aditivadas com polpa cítrica peletizada (PCP),. Foram utilizados silos experimentais de PVC adaptados com válvula do tipo Bunsen, tendo a silagem atingindo densidade de 900 kg m-3. Os tratamentos foram constituídos por três proporções de PCP (0, 50 e 100 g kg-1 em relação a matéria natural) e sete tempos de abertura após a ensilagem (1, 4, 7, 14, 21, 28 e 56 dias). A presença de PCP aumentou os teores de CHOs em 15 a 20%, reduziu o pH (5,3 para 4,2) e diminuiu as concentrações de N-NH3. Houve crescimento da população de enterobactérias somente durante o primeiro dia de fermentação (média 3 UFC g-1), pequeno desenvolvimento de clostrideos (média 0,5 UFC g-1) e dominância de bactérias homo em relação às heterofermentativas, para os três tratamentos estudados. A adição de polpa cítrica durante a ensilagem do capim-Marandu foi benéfica, podendo ser recomendada desde que haja benefício econômico na sua adoção.

Genetic structure of populations of Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group-1 IA from soybean in Brazil

The Basidiomycete fungus Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group (AG)-1 IA is a major pathogen of soybean in Brazil, where the average yield losses have reached 30 to 60% in some states in Northern Brazil. No information is currently available concerning levels of genetic diversity and population structure for this pathogen in Brazil. A total of 232 isolates of R. solani AG1 IA were collected from five soybean fields in the most important soybean production areas in central-western, northern, and northeastern Brazil. These isolates were genotyped using 10 microsatellite loci. Most of the multilocus genotypes (MLGTs) were site-specific, with few MLGTs shared among populations. Significant population subdivision was evident. High levels of admixture were observed for populations from Mato Grosso and Tocantins. After removing admixed genotypes, three out of five field populations (Maranhao, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins), were in Hardy-Weinberg (HW) equilibrium, consistent with sexual recombination. HW and gametic disequilibrium were found for the remaining soybean-infecting populations. The findings of low genotypic diversity, departures from HW equilibrium, gametic disequilibrium, and high degree of population subdivision in these R. solani AG-1 IA populations from Brazil are consistent with predominantly asexual reproduction, short-distance dispersal of vegetative propagules (mycelium or sclerotia), and limited long-distance dispersal, possibly via contaminated seed. None of the soybean-infecting populations showed a reduction in population size (bottleneck effect). We detected asymmetric historical migration among the soybean-infecting populations, which could explain the observed levels of subdivision.