Cell-mediated immunity to predict cytomegalovirus disease in high-risk solid organ transplant recipients.

Late-onset cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease commonly occurs after discontinuation of antiviral prophylaxis. We determined the utility of testing CD8+ T-cell response against CMV as a predictor of late-onset CMV disease after a standard course of antiviral prophylaxis. Transplant patients at high-risk for CMV disease were enrolled. CD8+ T-cell-mediated immunity (CMI) was tested using the QuantiFERON-CMV assay at baseline, 1, 2 and 3 months posttransplant by measurement of interferon-gamma response to whole blood stimulation with a 21-peptide pool. The primary outcome was the ability of CMI testing to predict CMV disease in the first 6 months posttransplant. There were 108 evaluable patients (D+/R+ n = 39; D-/R+ n = 34; D+/R- n = 35) of whom 18 (16.7%) developed symptomatic CMV disease. At the end of prophylaxis, CMI was detectable in 38/108 (35.2%) patients (cutoff 0.1 IU/mL interferon-gamma). CMV disease occurred in 2/38 (5.3%) patients with a detectable interferon-gamma response versus 16/70 (22.9%) patients with a negative response; p = 0.038. In the subgroup of D+/R- patients, CMV disease occurred in 1/10 (10.0%) patients with a detectable interferon-gamma response (cutoff 0.1 IU/mL) versus 10/25 (40.0%) patients with a negative CMI, p = 0.12. Monitoring of CMI may be useful for predicting late-onset CMV disease.

p53 Mutation in histologically normal mucosa of the aero-digestive tract is not a marker of increased risk for second primary carcinoma in head and neck cancer patients.

Head and neck cancer patients are at high risk for developing second primary tumors. This is known as field cancerization of the aero-digestive tract. In a previous study, we showed that patients with multiple primary tumors were more likely to have p53 mutations in histologically normal mucosae than patients presenting with an isolated tumor. Based on this observation, we postulated that p53 mutations in normal tissue samples of patients bearing a single primary tumor could have a clinical value as a biomarker for the risk of developing second primary tumors. Thirty-five patients presenting with a single primary tumor were followed-up for a median of 51 months (range 1 month to 10.9 years) after biopsies of histologically normal squamous cell mucosa had been analyzed for p53 mutations with a yeast functional assay at the time of the primary tumor. During this follow-up, recurrences and non-sterilization of the primary tumor, occurrence of lymph node metastases, and of second primary tumors were evaluated. Sixteen (45.7%) patients were found to have p53 mutations in their normal squamous cell mucosa, and 19 (54.3%) patients showed no mutation. No relationship was found between p53 mutations and the occurrence of evaluated events during follow-up. Notably, the rate of second primary tumors was not associated with p53 mutations in the normal squamous mucosa. The correlation between p53 mutations in histologically normal mucosae and the incidence of second primary tumors is generally low. The benefit of analyzing p53 mutations in samples of normal squamous cell mucosa in every patient with a primary tumor of the head and neck is doubtful.

Troponin-based risk stratification of patients with acute nonmassive pulmonary embolism: systematic review and metaanalysis.

BACKGROUND: Controversy exists regarding the usefulness of troponin testing for the risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We conducted an updated systematic review and a metaanalysis of troponin-based risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. The sources of our data were publications listed in Medline and Embase from 1980 through April 2008 and a review of cited references in those publications. METHODS: We included all studies that estimated the relation between troponin levels and the incidence of all-cause mortality in normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. Two reviewers independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. From the literature search, 596 publications were screened. Nine studies that consisted of 1,366 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE were deemed eligible. Pooled results showed that elevated troponin levels were associated with a 4.26-fold increased odds of overall mortality (95% CI, 2.13 to 8.50; heterogeneity chi(2) = 12.64; degrees of freedom = 8; p = 0.125). Summary receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a relationship between the sensitivity and specificity of troponin levels to predict overall mortality (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.68; p = 0.046). Pooled likelihood ratios (LRs) were not extreme (negative LR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.88]; positive LR, 2.26 [95% CI, 1.66 to 3.07]). The Begg rank correlation method did not detect evidence of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this metaanalysis indicate that elevated troponin levels do not adequately discern normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE who are at high risk for death from those who are at low risk for death.

Clinical follow-up of women infected with human papillomavirus-16, either alone or with other human papillomavirus types : identification of different risk groups

Rapport de synthèse Objectifs : Évaluer l'impact clinique de femmes infectées par de multiples papillomavirus human (HPV) à haut risque dont le HPV 16 en comparaison de l'évolution de femmes infectées par du HPV 16 seul. Méthode : 169 femmes ont été classifiées en trois groupes, dépendant de leur profile HPV: HPV-16 seul, HPV-16 et un HPV de type bas risque, HPV-16 et un autre HPV à haut risque. Le HPV-DNA des frottis cervicaux a été analysé par polymerase chain reaction (PCR) et reverse line blot hybridization (RLBH). Toutes les femmes ont été suivies à la consultation de colposcopie pour une durée de 24 mois ou plus. La prise en charge s'est faite selon les recommandations de Bethesda. Résultats : Les femmes infectées par du HPV 16 et un autre HPV à haut risque n'ont présenté aucun changement voire une progression de leur dysplasie en comparaison des femmes des autres groupes (RR: 1.39; 95%CI: 1.07 à 1.82; p value: 0.02 à 6 mois; RR: 2.10; 95%CI: 1.46 à 3.02; p value: <0.001 à 12 mois; RR: 1.82; 95%CI: 1.21 à 2.72; p value: 0.004 à 24 mois). Conclusions : Les femmes présentant une co-infection par du HPV 16 ainsi qu'un autre HPV de haut risque voient leur risque d'évolution défavorable augmenter.

Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Averting risk in the face of large losses: Bernoulli vs. Tversky and Kahneman

We experimentally question the assertion of Prospect Theory that people display risk attraction in choices involving high-probability losses. Indeed, our experimental participants tend to avoid fair risks for large (up to ? 90), high-probability (80%) losses. Our research hinges on a novel experimental method designed to alleviate the house-money bias that pervades experiments with real (not hypothetical) loses.Our results vindicate Daniel Bernoulli?s view that risk aversion is the dominant attitude,But, contrary to the Bernoulli-inspired canonical expected utility theory, we do find frequent risk attraction for small amounts of money at stake.In any event, we attempt neither to test expected utility versus nonexpected utility theories, nor to contribute to the important literature that estimates value and weighting functions. The question that we ask is more basic, namely: do people display risk aversion when facing large losses, or large gains? And, at the risk of oversimplifying, our answer is yes.

Predictive Value of Readiness, Importance, and Confidence in Ability to Change Drinking and Smoking

Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.

Reduction in the use of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis does not delay antibiotic treatment.

Despite a low positive predictive value, diagnostic tests such as complete blood count (CBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are commonly used to evaluate whether infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) should be treated with antibiotics. We investigated the impact of implementing a protocol aiming at reducing the number of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for EOS in order to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated clinical examination with CBC and CRP measurement. The primary outcome was the time between birth and the first dose of antibiotics in infants treated for suspected EOS. Among the 11,503 infants born at ≥35 weeks during the study period, 222 were treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS. The proportion of infants receiving antibiotics for suspected EOS was 2.1% and 1.7% before and after the change of protocol (p = 0.09). Reduction of diagnostic tests was associated with earlier antibiotic treatment in infants treated for suspected EOS (hazard ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.07; p <0.001), and in infants with neonatal infection (hazard ratio 2.20; 95% CI 1.19-4.06; p = 0.01). There was no difference in the duration of hospital stay nor in the proportion of infants requiring respiratory or cardiovascular support before and after the change of protocol. Reduction of diagnostic tests such as CBC and CRP does not delay initiation of antibiotic treatment in infants with suspected EOS. The importance of clinical examination in infants with risk factors for EOS should be emphasised.

Residual venous obstruction, alone and in combination with D-dimer, as a risk factor for recurrence after anticoagulation withdrawal following a first idiopathic deep vein thrombosis in the prolong study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the predictive value of residual venous obstruction (RVO) for recurrent venous thrombo-embolism (VTE) in a study using D-dimer to predict outcome. DESIGN: This is a multicentre randomised open-label study. METHODS: Patients with a first episode of idiopathic VTE were enrolled on the day of anticoagulation discontinuation when RVO was determined by compression ultrasonography in those with proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs. D-dimer was measured after 1 month. Patients with normal D-dimer did not resume anticoagulation while patients with abnormal D-dimer were randomised to resume anticoagulation or not. The primary outcome measure was recurrent VTE over an 18-month follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 490 DVT patients were analysed (after excluding 19 for different reasons and 118 for isolated pulmonary embolism (PE)). Recurrent DVT occurred in 19% (19/99) of patients with abnormal D-dimer who did not resume anticoagulation and 10% (31/310) in subjects with normal D-dimer (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.1; p = 0.02). Recurrences were similar in subjects either with (11%, 17/151) or without RVO (13%, 32/246). Recurrent DVT rates were also similar for normal D-dimer, with or without RVO, and for abnormal D-dimer, with or without RVO. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated D-dimer at 1 month after anticoagulation withdrawal is a risk factor for recurrence, while RVO at the time of anticoagulation withdrawal is not.

Alcohol drinking and cardiovascular risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption

Résumé : Description : Ce travail de thèse évalue l'impact de la consommation importante d'alcool sur les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire et l'estimation du risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans (risque de développer une maladie coronarienne}, dans une population avec une consommation moyenne élevée d'alcool. La consommation modérée d'alcool a été liée à un risque plus faible de développer une maladie coronarienne. Cependant, les données concernant la consommation importante d'alcool et le risque de développer une maladie coronarienne sont conflictuelles. Il y a également peu d'études dans lesquelles les consommations importantes d'alcool ont pu être évaluées en raison du petit nombre de sujets présentant une telle consommation. Résultats: Nous avons utilisé les données de l'étude CoLaus, une étude populationnelle qui inclut des adultes, âgés de 35 à 75 ans, de la ville de Lausanne. Nous avons inclus 5'769 participants, sans maladie cardiovasculaire, pour lesquels la consommation d'alcool d'une semaine a été catégorisée en 0, 1 à 6, 7 à 13, 14 à 20, 21 à 27, 28 à 34 et >=35 verres/semaine et en non-consommateur (0 verre/semaine), consommateur modéré (1 à 13 verres/semaine), important (14 à 34 verres/semaine) et très important (>= 35). La tension artérielle et les lipides ont été mesurés et le risque de développer une maladie coronarienne à 10 ans a été calculé en utilisant le score de Framingham. 73% des participants consommaient de l'alcool; 16% étaient des consommateurs importants et 2% des consommateurs très importants. L'analyse rnultivariée a montré une augmentation du cholestérol HDL avec la consommation d'alcool (de 1.570.01 [moyenne +- erreur standard] chez les non consommateurs à 1.880.03 mmol/L chez les consommateurs très importants), des triglycérides (1.17+-1.01 à 1.32+-1.05 mmol/L) et des valeurs de tension artérielle systolique (127.4+-0.4 à 132.2+-.4 mm Hg) et diastolique (78.7+-0.3 à 81.7+-0.9 mm Hg, toutes les valeurs de p pour trend<0.001). Quant au risque de développer une maladie coronarienne à 10 ans, il a augmenté de 4.31%+-0.10 à 4.90%+-0.37 (p=0.03) avec la consommation d'alcool, en décrivant une courbe en J. En examinant le type de consommation, on a vu que la consommation de vin a plus d'effet sur l'augmentation des valeurs de cholestérol HDL, alors que la consommation de bière ou de spiritueux a plus d'effet sur l'augmentation des valeurs de triglycérides. Conclusions et perspectives: Nos résultats montrent qu'en ce qui concerne l'estimation du risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans, l'effet protecteur de la consommation d'alcool disparaît pour des consommations très importantes, car l'effet bénéfique des valeurs augmentées de cholestérol HDL est contrecarré par l'augmentation des valeurs de tension artérielle. Quant aux différents types d'alcool, d'autres études sont nécessaires pour mieux évaluer leur effet spécifique sur les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction with Ultrasound

This paper addresses primary care physicians, cardiologists, internists, angiologists and doctors desirous of improving vascular risk prediction in primary care. Many cardiovascular risk factors act aggressively on the arterial wall and result in atherosclerosis and atherothrombosis. Cardiovascular prognosis derived from ultrasound imaging is, however, excellent in subjects without formation of intimal thickening or atheromas. Since ultrasound visualises the arterial wall directly, the information derived from the arterial wall may add independent incremental information to the knowledge of risk derived from global risk assessment. This paper provides an overview on plaque imaging for vascular risk prediction in two parts: Part 1: Carotid IMT is frequently used as a surrogate marker for outcome in intervention studies addressing rather large cohorts of subjects. Carotid IMT as a risk prediction tool for the prevention of acute myocardial infarction and stroke has been extensively studied in many patients since 1987, and has yielded incremental hazard ratios for these cardiovascular events independently of established cardiovascular risk factors. However, carotid IMT measurements are not used uniformly and therefore still lack widely accepted standardisation. Hence, at an individual, practicebased level, carotid IMT is not recommended as a risk assessment tool. The total plaque area of the carotid arteries (TPA) is a measure of the global plaque burden within both carotid arteries. It was recently shown in a large Norwegian cohort involving over 6000 subjects that TPA is a very good predictor for future myocardial infarction in women with an area under the curve (AUC) using a receiver operating curves (ROC) value of 0.73 (in men: 0.63). Further, the AUC for risk prediction is high both for vascular death in a vascular prevention clinic group (AUC 0.77) and fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction in a true primary care group (AUC 0.79). Since TPA has acceptable reproducibility, allows calculation of posttest risk and is easily obtained at low cost, this risk assessment tool may come in for more widespread use in the future and also serve as a tool for atherosclerosis tracking and guidance for intensity of preventive therapy. However, more studies with TPA are needed. Part 2: Carotid and femoral plaque formation as detected by ultrasound offers a global view of the extent of atherosclerosis. Several prospective cohort studies have shown that cardiovascular risk prediction is greater for plaques than for carotid IMT. The number of arterial beds affected by significant atheromas may simply be added numerically to derive additional information on the risk of vascular events. A new atherosclerosis burden score (ABS) simply calculates the sum of carotid and femoral plaques encountered during ultrasound scanning. ABS correlates well and independently with the presence of coronary atherosclerosis and stenosis as measured by invasive coronary angiogram. However, the prognostic power of ABS as an independent marker of risk still needs to be elucidated in prospective studies. In summary, the large number of ways to measure atherosclerosis and related changes in human arteries by ultrasound indicates that this technology is not yet sufficiently perfected and needs more standardisation and workup on clearly defined outcome studies before it can be recommended as a practice-based additional risk modifier.

Meta-analysis : subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for coronary heart disease and mortality

Rapport de synthèse : Description : ce travail de thèse évalue de façon systématique les études sur l'association entre les dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques d'une part, et la maladie coronarienne et la mortalité d'autre part. Les hypothyroïdies infracliniques affectent environ 4-5% de la population adulte alors que la prévalence de l'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique est inférieure (environ 1%). L'éventuelle association entre elles pourrait justifier un dépistage systématique des dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques. Les précédentes études sur l'association entre l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique et la maladie coronarienne ont donné des résultats conflictuels. La parution de nouveaux articles récents basés sur de grandes cohortes prospectives nous a permis d'effectuer une méta-analyse basée uniquement sur des études de cohorte prospectives, augmentant ainsi la validité des résultats. Résultats: 10 des 12 études identifiées pour notre revue systématique sont basées sur des cohortes issues de la population générale («population-based »), regroupant en tout 14 449 participants. Ces 10 études examinent toutes le risque associé à l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique (avec 2134 événements coronariens et 2822 décès), alors que 5 étudient également le risque associé à l'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique (avec 1392 événements coronariens et 1993 décès). En utilisant un modèle statistique de type random-effect model, le risque relatif [RR] lié à l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique pour la maladie coronarienne est de 1.20 (intervalle de confiance [IC] de 95%, 0.97 à 1.49). Le risque diminue lorsque l'on regroupe uniquement les études de meilleure qualité (RR compris entre 1.02 et 1.08). Il est plus élevé parmi les participants de moins de 65 ans (RR, 1.51 [IC, 1.09 à 2.09] et 1.05 [IC, 0.90 à 1.22] pour les études dont l'âge moyen des participants est >_ 65 ans). Le RR de la mortalité cardiovasculaire est de 1.18 (IC, 0.98 à 1.42) et de 1.12 (IC, 0.99 à 1.26) pour la mortalité totale. En cas d'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique, les RR de la maladie coronarienne sont de 1.21 (IC, 0.88 à 1.68), de 1.19 (IC, 0.81 à 1.76) pour la mortalité cardiovasculaire, et de 1.12 (IC, 0.89 à 1.42) pour la mortalité totale. Conclusions et perspectives : nos résultats montrent que les dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques (hypothyroïdie et hyperthyroïdie infracliniques) représentent un facteur de risque modifiable, bien que modéré, de la maladie coronarienne et de la mortalité. L'efficacité du traitement de ces dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques doit encore être prouvée du point de vue cardiovasculaire et de la mortalité. Il est nécessaire d'effectuer des études contrôlées contre placebo avec le risque cardiovasculaire et la mortalité comme critères d'efficacité, avant de pouvoir proposer des recommandations sur le dépistage des ces dysfonctions thyroïdiennes dans la population adulte.

A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

The complex SNP and CNV genetic architecture of the increased risk of congenital heart defects in Down syndrome.

Congenital heart defect (CHD) occurs in 40% of Down syndrome (DS) cases. While carrying three copies of chromosome 21 increases the risk for CHD, trisomy 21 itself is not sufficient to cause CHD. Thus, additional genetic variation and/or environmental factors could contribute to the CHD risk. Here we report genomic variations that in concert with trisomy 21, determine the risk for CHD in DS. This case-control GWAS includes 187 DS with CHD (AVSD = 69, ASD = 53, VSD = 65) as cases, and 151 DS without CHD as controls. Chromosome 21-specific association studies revealed rs2832616 and rs1943950 as CHD risk alleles (adjusted genotypic P-values <0.05). These signals were confirmed in a replication cohort of 92 DS-CHD cases and 80 DS-without CHD (nominal P-value 0.0022). Furthermore, CNV analyses using a customized chromosome 21 aCGH of 135K probes in 55 DS-AVSD and 53 DS-without CHD revealed three CNV regions associated with AVSD risk (FDR ≤ 0.05). Two of these regions that are located within the previously identified CHD region on chromosome 21 were further confirmed in a replication study of 49 DS-AVSD and 45 DS- without CHD (FDR ≤ 0.05). One of these CNVs maps near the RIPK4 gene, and the second includes the ZBTB21 (previously ZNF295) gene, highlighting the potential role of these genes in the pathogenesis of CHD in DS. We propose that the genetic architecture of the CHD risk of DS is complex and includes trisomy 21, and SNP and CNV variations in chromosome 21. In addition, a yet-unidentified genetic variation in the rest of the genome may contribute to this complex genetic architecture.