Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid- and high-latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high-elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic-induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio-indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.

The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary

Seasonal patterns of viral and bacterial infections among children hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia in a tropical region

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common cause of morbidity among children. Evidence on seasonality, especially on the frequency of viral and bacterial causative agents is scarce; such information may be useful in an era of changing climate conditions worldwide. To analyze the frequency of distinct infections, meteorological indicators and seasons in children hospitalized for CAP in Salvador, Brazil, nasopharyngeal aspirate and blood were collected from 184 patients aged < 5 y over a 21-month period. Fourteen microbes were investigated and 144 (78%) cases had the aetiology established. Significant differences were found in air temperature between spring and summer (p = 0.02) or winter (p < 0.001), summer and fall (p = 0.007) or winter (p < 0.001), fall and winter (p = 0.002), and on precipitation between spring and fall (p = 0.01). Correlations were found between: overall viral infections and relative humidity (p = 0.006; r = 0.6) or precipitation (p = 0.03; r = 0.5), parainfluenza and precipitation (p = 0.02; r = -0.5), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and air temperature (p = 0.048; r = -0.4) or precipitation (p = 0.045; r = 0.4), adenovirus and precipitation (p = 0.02; r = 0.5), pneumococcus and air temperature (p = 0.04; r = -0.4), and Chlamydia trachomatis and relative humidity (p = 0.02; r = -0.5). The frequency of parainfluenza infection was highest during spring (32.1%; p = 0.005) and that of RSV infection was highest in the fall (36.4%; p < 0.001). Correlations at regular strength were found between several microbes and meteorological indicators. Parainfluenza and RSV presented marked seasonal patterns.

Atmospheric versus vegetation controls of Amazonian tropical rain forest evapotranspiration: Are the wet and seasonally dry rain forests any different?

This study analyzes evapotranspiration data for three wet and two seasonally dry rain forest sites in Amazonia. The main environmental (net radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and aerodynamic conductance) and vegetation (surface conductance) controls of evapotranspiration are also assessed. Our research supports earlier studies that demonstrate that evapotranspiration in the dry season is higher than that in the wet season and that surface net radiation is the main controller of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial sites. However, our analyses also indicate that there are different factors controlling the seasonality of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial rain forest sites and southern seasonally dry rain forests. While the seasonality of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial forests is driven solely by environmental factors, in seasonally dry forests, it is also biotically controlled with the surface conductance varying between seasons by a factor of approximately 2. The identification of these different drivers of evapotranspiration is a major step forward in our understanding of the water dynamics of tropical forests and has significant implications for the future development of vegetation-atmosphere models and land use and conservation planning in the region.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Formulation of a tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme

This work describes the tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme addressed to simulate the diurnal occurrence of the urban heat island (UHI) as observed in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ; -22A degrees S; -44A degrees W) in Brazil. Reasoning about the tropical urban climate have guided the scheme implementation, starting from the original equations from Masson (Bound-Lay Meteorol 94:357-397, 2000). The modifications include (a) local scaling approaches for obtaining flux-gradient relationships in the roughness sub-layer, (b) the Monin-Obukhov similarity framework in the inertial sub-layer, (c) increasing aerodynamic conductance toward more unstable conditions, and (d) a modified urban subsurface drainage system to transfer the intercepted rainwater by roofs to the roads. Simulations along 2007 for the MARJ are obtained and compared with the climatology. The t-TEB simulation is consistent with the observations, suggesting that the timing and dynamics of the UHI in tropical cities could vary significantly from the familiar patterns observed in mid-latitude cities-with the peak heat island intensity occurring in the morning than at night. The simulations are suggesting that the thermal phase shift of this tropical diurnal UHI is a response of the surface energy budget to the large amount of solar radiation, intense evapotranspiration, and thermal response of the vegetated surfaces over a very humid soil layer.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Decomposition in tropical forests: a pan-tropical study of the effects of litter type, litter placement and mesofaunal exclusion across a precipitation gradient

1. Litter decomposition recycles nutrients and causes large fluxes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It is typically assumed that climate, litter quality and decomposer communities determine litter decay rates, yet few comparative studies have examined their relative contributions in tropical forests. 2. We used a short-term litterbag experiment to quantify the effects of litter quality, placement and mesofaunal exclusion on decomposition in 23 tropical forests in 14 countries. Annual precipitation varied among sites (760-5797 mm). At each site, two standard substrates (Raphia farinifera and Laurus nobilis) were decomposed in fine- and coarse-mesh litterbags both above and below ground for approximately 1 year. 3. Decomposition was rapid, with >95% mass loss within a year at most sites. Litter quality, placement and mesofaunal exclusion all independently affected decomposition, but the magnitude depended upon site. Both the average decomposition rate at each site and the ratio of above- to below-ground decay increased linearly with annual precipitation, explaining 60-65% of among-site variation. Excluding mesofauna had the largest impact on decomposition, reducing decomposition rates by half on average, but the magnitude of decrease was largely independent of climate. This suggests that the decomposer community might play an important role in explaining patterns of decomposition among sites. Which litter type decomposed fastest varied by site, but was not related to climate. 4. Synthesis. A key goal of ecology is to identify general patterns across ecological communities, as well as relevant site-specific details to understand local dynamics. Our pan-tropical study shows that certain aspects of decomposition, including average decomposition rates and the ratio of above- to below-ground decomposition are highly correlated with a simple climatic index: mean annual precipitation. However, we found no relationship between precipitation and effects of mesofaunal exclusion or litter type, suggesting that site-specific details may also be required to understand how these factors affect decomposition at local scales.

Related changes in biodiversity, insolation and climate in the Atlantic rainforest since the last interglacial

The long-term Colonia record is located in the Atlantic rainforest domain in Brazil (23 degrees 52`S 46 degrees 42`20 `` W 900 m a.s.l.). The 780 cm long core CO3 provides a coverage of a complete interglacial/glacial cycle for the first time in a neotropical rainforest. Information on the behavior of tropical climates compared to global changes in temperatures indicates specific climate responses in terms of precipitation at these latitudes. Winter extratropical circulation was very active during the last interglacial and most of the glacial. Floristic composition of the rainforest changed several times in each phase of expansion, twice during the interglacial, and three times during glacial episodes. Araucaria was well developed in the area of Sao Paulo until the beginning of the first dry phase of the glacial at ca. 50,000 yr B.P. Changes in insolation controlled the expansion of the rainforest and the tropical hydrological cycle as evidenced by a strong precession signal. However precession had no impact on regional climatic features. The two interglacials (MIS 5e and Holocene) showed completely different patterns attesting to the continuous evolution of the forest. The biodiversity index (Shannon-Wiener Index) remained high during both the interglacial and glacial attesting to the permanence of small patches of rainforest refugia during drier phases. The lowest Shannon-Wiener Indexes were recorded between 23,000 and 12,000 yr B.P. and 40,000 and 30,000 yr B.P. and characterize two marked phases of stress for the rainforest. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Uma janela tropical: análise do desempenho luminoso de ambientes com aberturas sombreadas para o clima de Natal/RN

This master thesis introduces assessment procedures of daylighting performance in office rooms with shaded opening, recommendations for Natal-RN (Latitude 05,47' S, Longitude 35,11' W). The studies assume the need of window exterior shading in hot and humid climate buildings. The daylighting performance analyses are based on simulated results for three levels of illuminance (300,500 e 1000 lux) between 08h00 e 16h00, in rooms with 2,80 m height, 6 m large and 4 m, 6 m e 8 m depths, with a centered single opening, window wall ratio (20%, 40% e 60%), four orientations (North, East, South and West), and two types of sky (clear and partially cloudy). The sky characteristics were statistically determined based on hourly data from INPE-CRN solar and daylighting weather station. The lighting performance is resulted from dynamic computer simulation of 72 models using Troplux 3.12. The simulation results were assessed using a new parameter to quantify the use of interior daylighting, the useful percentage of daylight (PULN), which corresponds to the time fraction with satisfactory light, in accordance with the illuminance design. The passive zone depths are defined based on the PULN. Despite the failures of illuminance data from the weather station, the analyses ratified the high potential of daylighting for shaded rooms. The most influential variables on the lighting performance are the opening size and the illuminance of design, while the orientation is a little influential

A morenidade da china tropical: o racianalismo de Casa-grande e Senzala

This essay discusses the race issue, emphasizing the racial concept in Casa-Grande & Senzala. We discussed the Brazilian intellectual scene of the 1920s and 1930s, also the decadence of the analysis based on the variables of race, geographical environment and climate, emphasizing the ascent of new approaches, structured cultural diversity in the capitalist economy and exclusionary. We use the concept of racialism, understanding it as any narrative that classifies the types of people in a racial criterion

Relationship among Apis mellifera L. stings, swarming and climate conditions in the city of Rio Claro, SP, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)