Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Domestic energy monitoring in Victorian households with PV solar installations : feasibility report for GV Community Energy

Australia requires decisive action on climate change and issues of sustainability. The Urban Informatics Research Lab has been funded by the Queensland State Government to conduct a three year study (2009 – 2011) exploring ways to support Queensland residents in making more sustainable consumer and lifestyle choices. We conduct user-centred design research that inform the development of real-time, mobile, locational, networked information interfaces, feedback mechanisms and persuasive and motivational approaches that in turn assist in-situ decision making and environmental awareness in everyday settings. The study aims to deliver usable and useful prototypes offering individual and collective visualisations of ecological impact and opportunities for engagement and collaboration in order to foster a participatory and sustainable culture of life in Australia. Raising people’s awareness with environmental data and educational information does not necessarily trigger sufficient motivation to change their habits towards a more environmentally friendly and sustainable lifestyle. Our research seeks to develop a better understanding how to go beyond just informing and into motivating and encouraging action and change. Drawing on participatory culture, ubiquitous computing, and real-time information, the study delivers research that leads to viable new design approaches and information interfaces which will strengthen Australia’s position to meet the targets of the Clean Energy Future strategy, and contribute to the sustainability of a low-carbon future in Australia. As part of this program of research, the Urban Informatics Research Lab has been invited to partner with GV Community Energy Pty Ltd on a project funded by the Victorian Government Sustainability Fund. This feasibility report specifically looks at the challenges and opportunities of energy monitoring in households in Victoria that include a PV solar installation. The report is structured into two parts: In Part 1, we first review a range of energy monitoring solutions, both stand-alone and internet-enabled. This section primarily focusses on the technical capacilities. However, in order to understand this information and make an informed decision, it is crucial to understand the basic principles and limitations of energy monitoring as well as the opportunities and challenges of a networked approach towards energy monitoring which are discussed in Section 2.

EPG monitoring of the probing behaviour of the common brown leafhopper Orosius orientalis on artificial diet and selected host plants

The common brown leafhopper Orosius orientalis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is a polyphagous vector of a range of economically important pathogens, including phytoplasmas and viruses, which infect a diverse range of crops. Studies on the plant penetration behaviour by O. orientalis were conducted using the electrical penetration graph (EPG) technique to assist in the characterisation of pathogen acquisition and transmission. EPG waveforms representing different probing activities were acquired from adult O. orientalis probing in planta, using two host species, tobacco Nicotiana tabacum and bean Phaseolus vulgaris, and in vitro using a simple sucrose-based artificial diet. Five waveforms (O1–O5) were evident when O. orientalis fed on bean, whereas only four waveforms (O1–O4) and three waveforms (O1–O3) were observed when the leafhopper fed on tobacco and on the artificial diet, respectively. Both the mean duration of each waveform and waveform type differed markedly depending on the food substrate. Waveform O4 was not observed on the artificial diet and occurred relatively rarely on tobacco plants when compared with bean plants. Waveform O5 was only observed with leafhoppers probing on beans. The attributes of the waveforms and comparative analyses with previously published Hemipteran data are presented and discussed, but further characterisation studies will be needed to confirm our suggestions.

Estimating the effects of environmental exposures using a weighted mean of monitoring stations

The health effects of environmental hazards are often examined using time series of the association between a daily response variable (e.g., death) and a daily level of exposure (e.g., temperature). Exposures are usually the average from a network of stations. This gives each station equal importance, and negates the opportunity for some stations to be better measures of exposure. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model that weighted stations using random variables between zero and one. We compared the weighted estimates to the standard model using data on health outcomes (deaths and hospital admissions) and exposures (air pollution and temperature) in Brisbane, Australia. The improvements in model fit were relatively small, and the estimated health effects of pollution were similar using either the standard or weighted estimates. Spatial weighted exposures would be probably more worthwhile when there is either greater spatial detail in the health outcome, or a greater spatial variation in exposure.

Observation of new particle formation in subtropical urban environment

The aim of this study was to characterise the new particle formation events in a subtropical urban environment in the southern hemisphere. The study measured the number concentration of particles and its size distribution in Brisbane, Australia during 2009. The variation of particle number concentration and nucleation burst events were characterised as well as the particle growth rate which was first reported in urban environment of Australia. The annual average NUFP, NAitken and NNuc were 9.3 x 103, 3.7 x 103 and 5.6 x 103 cm-3, respectively. Weak seasonal variation in number concentration was observed. Local traffic exhaust emissions were a major contributor of the pollution (NUFP) observed in morning which was dominated by the Aitken mode particles, while particles formed by secondary formation processes contributed to the particle number concentration during afternoon. Overall, 65 nucleation burst events were identified during the study period. Nucleation burst events were classified into two groups, with and without particles growth after the burst of nucleation mode particles observed. The average particle growth rate of the nucleation events was 4.6 nm hr-1 (ranged from 1.79 – 7.78 nm hr-1). Case studies of the nucleation burst events were characterised including i) the nucleation burst with particle growth which is associated with the particle precursor emitted from local traffic exhaust emission, ii) the nucleation burst without particle growth which is due to the transport of industrial emissions from the coast to Brisbane city or other possible sources with unfavourable conditions which suppressed particle growth and iii) interplay between the above two cases which demonstrated the impact of the vehicle and industrial emissions on the variation of particle number concentration and its size distribution during the same day.

Monitoring charged particle and ion emissions from a laser printer

While the emission rate of ultrafine particles has been measured and quantified, there is very little information on the emission rates of ions and charged particles from laser printers. This paper describes a methodology that can be adopted for measuring the surface charge density on printed paper and the ion and charged particle emissions during operation of a high-emitting laser printer and shows how emission rates of ultrafine particles, ions and charged particles may be quantified using a controlled experiment within a closed chamber.

Navigational Safety in Port Waters : Proactive Management of Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

Traditionally navigational safety analyses rely on historical collision data which is often hampered because of low collision counts, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these problems is using navigational traffic conflicts or near-misses as an alternative to the collision data. This book discusses how traffic conflicts can effectively be used in modeling of port water collision risks. Techniques for measuring and predicting collision risks in fairways, intersections, and anchorages are discussed by utilizing advanced statistical models. Risk measurement models, which quantitatively measure collision risks in waterways, are discussed. To predict risks, a hierarchical statistical modeling technique is discussed which identifies the factors influencing the risks. The modeling techniques are illustrated for Singapore port data. Results showed that traffic conflicts are an ethically appealing alternative to collision data for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for use in traffic impact assessments

Findings from an online survey conducted by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) shows that Australia is suffering from a lack of data reflecting trip generation for use in Traffic Impact Assessments (TIAs). Current independent variables for trip generation estimation are not able to create robust outcomes as well. It is also challenging to account for the impact of the new development on public and active transport as well as the effect of trip chaining behaviour in Australian TIA studies. With this background in mind, research is being implemented by QUT to find a new approach developing a combined model of trip generation and mode choice with consideration of trip chaining effects. It is expected that the model will provide transferable outcomes as it is developed based on socio-demographic parameters. Child Care Centres within the Brisbane area have been nominated for model development. At the time, the project is in the data collection phase. Findings from the pilot survey associated with capturing trip chaining and mode choice information reveal that applying questionnaire is able to capture required information in an acceptable level. The result also reveals that several centres within an area should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data for trip chaining and modal split analysis.

Integrating driving and traffic simulators to study railway level crossing safety interventions : a methodology

Safety at Railway Level Crossings (RLXs) is an important issue within the Australian transport system. Crashes at RLXs involving road vehicles in Australia are estimated to cost $10 million each year. Such crashes are mainly due to human factors; unintentional errors contribute to 46% of all fatal collisions and are far more common than deliberate violations. This suggests that innovative intervention targeting drivers are particularly promising to improve RLX safety. In recent years there has been a rapid development of a variety of affordable technologies which can be used to increase driver’s risk awareness around crossings. To date, no research has evaluated the potential effects of such technologies at RLXs in terms of safety, traffic and acceptance of the technology. Integrating driving and traffic simulations is a safe and affordable approach for evaluating these effects. This methodology will be implemented in a driving simulator, where we recreated realistic driving scenario with typical road environments and realistic traffic. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating comprehensively potential benefits and negative effects of such interventions: this methodology evaluates driver awareness at RLXs , driver distraction and workload when using the technology . Subjective assessment on perceived usefulness and ease of use of the technology is obtained from standard questionnaires. Driving simulation will provide a model of driving behaviour at RLXs which will be used to estimate the effects of such new technology on a road network featuring RLX for different market penetrations using a traffic simulation. This methodology can assist in evaluating future safety interventions at RLXs.

Traffic-related fine and ultrafine particle exposures of professional drivers and illness : An opportunity to better link exposure science and epidemiology to address an occupational hazard?

Exposures to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) can be particularly high in transport microenvironments (i.e. in and around vehicles) despite the short durations typically spent there. There is a mounting body of evidence that suggests that this is especially true for fine (b2.5 μm) and ultrafine (b100 nm, UF) particles. Professional drivers, who spend extended periods of time in transport microenvironments due to their job, may incur exposures markedly higher than already elevated non-occupational exposures. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown a raised incidence of adverse health outcomes among professional drivers, and exposure to TRAP has been suggested as one of the possible causal factors. Despite this, data describing the range and determinants of occupational exposures to fine and UF particles are largely conspicuous in their absence. Such information could strengthen attempts to define the aetiology of professional drivers' illnesses as it relates to traffic combustion-derived particles. In this article, we suggest that the drivers' occupational fine and UF particle exposures are an exemplar case where opportunities exist to better link exposure science and epidemiology in addressing questions of causality. The nature of the hazard is first introduced, followed by an overview of the health effects attributable to exposures typical of transport microenvironments. Basic determinants of exposure and reduction strategies are also described, and finally the state of knowledge is briefly summarised along with an outline of the main unanswered questions in the topic area.

Evaluation of the GHR car following model for traffic safety studies

Traffic safety studies mandate more than what existing micro-simulation models can offer as they postulate that every driver exhibits a safe behaviour. All the microscopic traffic simulation models are consisting of a car-following model and the Gazis–Herman–Rothery (GHR) car-following model is a widely used model. This paper highlights the limitations of the GHR car-following model capability to model longitudinal driving behaviour for safety study purposes. This study reviews and compares different version of the GHR model. To empower the GHR model on precise metrics reproduction a new set of car-following model parameters is offered to simulate unsafe vehicle conflicts. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time to Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against the generic versions of the GHR model. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model does predict the safety metrics better than the generic GHR model. Additionally it can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic facilities’ safety using microscopic simulation. The new model can predict Near-miss rear-end crashes.

Microscopic traffic hysteresis in traffic oscillations : a behavioral perspective

This paper studies traffic hysteresis arising in traffic oscillations from a behavioral perspective. It is found that the occurrence and type of traffic hysteresis is closely correlated with driver behavior when experiencing traffic oscillations and with the time driver reaction begins relative to the starting deceleration wave. Statistical results suggest that driver behavior is different depending on its position along the oscillation. This suggests that different car-following models should be used inside the different stages of an oscillation in order to replicate realistic congestion features.

Source apportionment of ultrafine and fine particle concentrations in Brisbane, Australia

Purpose: To investigate the significance of sources around measurement sites, assist the development of control strategies for the important sources and mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution due to particle size. Methods: In this study, sampling was conducted at two sites located in urban/industrial and residential areas situated at roadsides along the Brisbane Urban Corridor. Ultrafine and fine particle measurements obtained at the two sites in June-July 2002 were analysed by Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Results: Six sources were present, including local traffic, two traffic sources, biomass burning, and two currently unidentified sources. Secondary particles had a significant impact at Site 1, while nitrates, peak traffic hours and main roads located close to the source also affected the results for both sites. Conclusions: This significant traffic corridor exemplifies the type of sources present in heavily trafficked locations and future attempts to control pollution in this type of environment could focus on the sources that were identified.

Individual dose and exposure of Italian children to ultrafine particles

Time-activity patterns and the airborne pollutant concentrations encountered by children each day are an important determinant of individual exposure to airborne particles. This is demonstrated in this work by using hand-held devices to measure the real-time individual exposure of more than 100 children aged 8-11 years to particle number concentrations and average particle diameter, as well as alveolar and tracheobronchial deposited surface area concentration. A GPS-logger and activity diaries were also used to give explanation to the measurement results. Children were divided in three sample groups: two groups comprised of urban schools (school time from 8:30 am to 1:30 pm) with lunch and dinner at home, and the third group of a rural school with only dinner at home. The mean individual exposure to particle number concentration was found to differ between the three groups, ranging from 6.2×104 part. cm-3 for children attending one urban school to 1.6×104 part. cm-3 for the rural school. The corresponding daily alveolar deposited surface area dose varied from about 1.7×103 mm2 for urban schools to 6.0×102 mm2 for the rural school. For all of the children monitored, the lowest particle number concentrations are found during sleeping time and the highest were found during eating time. With regard to alveolar deposited surface area dose, a child's home was the major contributor (about 70%), with school contributing about 17% for urban schools and 27% for the rural school. An important contribution arises from the cooking/eating time spent at home, which accounted for approximately 20% of overall exposure, corresponding to more than 200 mm2. These activities represent the highest dose received per time unit, with very high values also encountered by children with a fireplace at home, as well as those that spend considerable time stuck in traffic jams.

Indoor and outdoor particle concentrations and elemental and organic carbon at 17 primary schools

The focus of this paper is on the measured particle number concentrations (PNC) as well as elemental and organic carbon in 17 primary schools. This study is part of the “Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health (UPTECH)”, which aims to determine the relationship between exposure to traffic related ultrafine (UF) particles and children’s health (http://www.ilaqh.qut.edu.au/Misc/UPTECH%20Home.htm). To achieve this, air quality and health data are being collected at 25 schools within Brisbane Metropolitan Area in Australia over two years. This paper presents the general aspects of UF particles data and preliminary results from the first 17 schools (S01 to S17), tested from Oct 2010 to Dec 2011.