Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Current concepts of snail control

Schistosomiasis control was impossible without effective tools. Synthetic molluscicides developed in the 1950s spearheaded community level control. Snail eradication proved impossible but repeated mollusciciding to manage natural snail populations could eliminate transmission. Escalating costs, logistical complexity, its labour-intensive nature and possible environmental effects caused some concern. The arrival of safe, effective, single-dose drugs in the 1970s offered an apparently better alternative but experience revealed the need for repeated treatments to minimise reinfection in programmes relying on drugs alone. Combining treatment with mollusciciding was more successful, but broke down if mollusciciding was withdrawn to save money. The provision of sanitation and safe water to prevent transmission is too expensive in poor rural areas where schistosomiasis is endemic; rendering ineffective public health education linked to primary health care. In the tropics, moreover, children (the key group in maintaining transmission) will always play in water. Large scale destruction of natural snail habitats remains impossibly expensive (although proper design could render many new man-made habitats unsuitable for snails). Neither biological control agents nor plant molluscicides have proved satisfactory alternatives to synthetic molluscicides. Biologists can develop effective strategies for using synthetic molluscicides in different epidemiological situations if only, like drugs, their price can be reduced.

The use and mis-use of some ecological terms and concepts in epidemiology

The article discusses the current use and mis-use of ecological terms and concepts in epidemiological literature, and in special, in works dealing with zoonotic diseases. A selection of examples was taken from papers recently published on the transmission of Chagas' disease by Triatoma sordida. Proper definitions are listed, with the intent of helping non-ecologists to use those terms and concepts correctly.

Did the cooperative start life as a Joint-Stock company? business law and cooperatives in Spain, 1869–1931

Studies of Spanish cooperatives date their spread from the Law on Agrarian Syndicates of 1906. But the first legislative appearance of cooperatives is an 1869 measure that permitted general incorporation for lending companies. The 1931 general law on cooperatives, which was the first act permitting the formation of cooperatives in any activity, reflects the gradual disappearance of the cooperative’s "business" characteristics. In this paper we trace the Spanish cooperative’s legal roots in business law and its connections to broader questions of the freedom of association, the formation of joint-stock enterprises, and the liability of investors in business and cooperative entities. Our account underscores the similarities of the organizational problems approach by cooperatives and business firms, while at the same time respecting the distinctive purposes cooperatives served.

Mitochondrial tRNA(Leu(UUR)) mutation m.3302A > G presenting as childhood-onset severe myopathy: threshold determination through segregation study.

Mitochondrial tRNA(Leu(UUR)) mutation m.3302A > G is associated with respiratory chain complex I deficiency and has been described as a rare cause of mostly adult-onset slowly progressive myopathy. Five families with 11 patients have been described so far; 5 of them died young due to cardiorespiratory failure. Here, we report on a segregation study in a family with an index patient who already presented at the age of 18 months with proximal muscular hypotonia, abnormal fatigability, and lactic acidosis. This early-onset myopathy was rapidly progressive. At 8 years, the patient is wheel-chair bound, requires nocturnal assisted ventilation, and suffers from recurrent respiratory infections. Severe complex I deficiency and nearly homoplasmy for m.3302A > G were found in muscle. We collected blood, hair, buccal swabs and muscle biopsies from asymptomatic adults in this pedigree and determined heteroplasmy levels in these tissues as well as OXPHOS activities in muscle. All participating asymptomatic adults had normal OXPHOS activities. In contrast to earlier reports, we found surprisingly little variation of heteroplasmy levels in different tissues of the same individual. Up to 45% mutation load in muscle and up to 38% mutation load in other tissues were found in non-affected adults. The phenotypic spectrum of tRNA(Leu(UUR)) m.3302A > G mutation seems to be wider than previously described. A threshold of more than 45% heteroplasmy in muscle seems to be necessary to alter complex I activity leading to clinical manifestation. The presented data may be helpful for prognostic considerations and counseling in affected families.

Reconstruction threshold for the hardcore model

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.

An approximate solution method for boundary layer flow of a power law fluid over a flat plate

The work in this paper deals with the development of momentum and thermal boundary layers when a power law fluid flows over a flat plate. At the plate we impose either constant temperature, constant flux or a Newton cooling condition. The problem is analysed using similarity solutions, integral momentum and energy equations and an approximation technique which is a form of the Heat Balance Integral Method. The fluid properties are assumed to be independent of temperature, hence the momentum equation uncouples from the thermal problem. We first derive the similarity equations for the velocity and present exact solutions for the case where the power law index n = 2. The similarity solutions are used to validate the new approximation method. This new technique is then applied to the thermal boundary layer, where a similarity solution can only be obtained for the case n = 1.