Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Discrete element modelling of the influence of lifters on power draw of tumbling mills

Crushing and grinding are the most energy intensive part of the mineral recovery process. A major part of rock size reduction occurs in tumbling mills. Empirical models for the power draw of tumbling mills do not consider the effect of lifters. Discrete element modelling was used to investigate the effect of lifter condition on the power draw of tumbling mill. Results obtained with PFC3D code show that lifter condition will have a significant influence on the power draw and on the mode of energy consumption in the mill. Relatively high lifters will consume less power than low lifters, under otherwise identical conditions. The fraction of the power that will be consumed as friction will increase as the height of the lifters decreases. This will result in less power being used for high intensity comminution caused by the impacts. The fraction of the power that will be used to overcome frictional resistance is determined by the material's coefficient of friction. Based on the modelled results, it appears that the effective coefficient of friction for in situ mill is close to 0.1. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying discrete element modelling to vertical and horizontal shaft impact crushers

The PFC3D (particle flow code) that models the movement and interaction of particles by the DEM techniques was employed to simulate the particle movement and to calculate the velocity and energy distribution of collision in two types of impact crusher: the Canica vertical shaft crusher and the BJD horizontal shaft swing hammer mill. The distribution of collision energies was then converted into a product size distribution for a particular ore type using JKMRC impact breakage test data. Experimental data of the Canica VSI crusher treating quarry and the BJD hammer mill treating coal were used to verify the DEM simulation results. Upon the DEM procedures being validated, a detailed simulation study was conducted to investigate the effects of the machine design and operational conditions on velocity and energy distributions of collision inside the milling chamber and on the particle breakage behaviour. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the size of the crushed zone around a blasthole

A new model to predict the extent of crushing around a blasthole is presented. The model is based on the back-analysis of a comprehensive experimental program that included the direct measurement of the zone of crushing from 92 blasting tests on concrete blocks using two commercial explosives. The concrete blocks varied from low, medium to high strength and measured 1.5 in in length, 1.0 m in width and 1.1 m in height. A dimensionless parameter called the crushing zone index (CZI) is introduced. This index measures the crushing potential of a charged blasthole and is a function of the borehole pressure, the unconfined compressive strength of the rock material, dynamic Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. It is shown that the radius of crushing is a function of the CZI and the blasthole radius. A good correlation between the new model and measured results was obtained. A number of previously proposed models could not approximate the conditions measured in the experimental work and there are noted discrepancies between the different approaches reviewed, particularly for smaller diameter holes and low strength rock conditions. The new model has been verified with full scale tests reported in the literature. Results from this validation and model evaluations show its applicability to production blasting. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discrete element modelling of power draw of tumbling mills

The power required to operate large mills is typically 5-10 MW. Hence, optimisation of power consumption will have a significant impact on overall economic performance and environmental impact. Power draw modelling results using the discrete element code PFC3D have been compared with results derived from the widely used empirical Model of Morrell. This is achieved by calculating the power draw for a range of operating conditions for constant mill size and fill factor using two modelling approaches. fThe discrete element modelling results show that, apart from density, selection of the appropriate material damping ratio is critical for the accuracy of modelling of the mill power draw. The relative insensitivity of the power draw to the material stiffness allows selection of moderate stiffness values, which result in acceptable computation time. The results obtained confirm that modelling of the power draw for a vertical slice of the mill, of thickness 20% of the mill length, is a reliable substitute for modelling the full mill. The power draw predictions from PFC3D show good agreement with those obtained using the empirical model. Due to its inherent flexibility, power draw modelling using PFC3D appears to be a viable and attractive alternative to empirical models where necessary code and computer power are available.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Numerical simulations of wind and temperature structure within an Alpine lake basin, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

High-resolution numerical model simulations have been used to study the local and mesoscale thermal circulations in an Alpine lake basin. The lake (87 km(2)) is situated in the Southern Alps, New Zealand and is located in a glacially excavated rock basin surrounded by mountain ranges that reach 3000 m in height. The mesoscale model used (RAMS) is a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model with a level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The model demonstrates that thermal forcing at local (within the basin) and regional (coast-to-basin inflow) scales drive the observed boundary-layer airflow in the lake basin during clear anticyclonic summertime conditions. The results show that the lake can modify (perturb) both the local and regional wind systems. Following sunrise, local thermal circulations dominate, including a lake breeze component that becomes embedded within the background valley wind system. This results in a more divergent flow in the basin extending across the lake shoreline. However, a closed lake breeze circulation is neither observed nor modelled. Modelling results indicate that in the latter part of the day when the mesoscale (coast-to-basin) inflow occurs, the relatively cold pool of lake air in the basin can cause the intrusion to decouple from the surface. Measured data provide qualitative and quantitative support for the model results.

Activation energy distribution of thermal annealing of a bituminous coal

A bituminous coal was pyrolyzed in a nitrogen stream in an entrained flow reactor at various temperatures from 700 to 1475 degreesC. Char samples were collected at different positions along the reactor. Each collected sample was oxidized nonisothermally in a TGA for reactivity determination. The reactivity of the coal char was found to decrease rapidly with residence time until 0.5 s, after which it decreased only slightly. On the bases of the reactivity data at various temperatures, a new approach was utilized to obtaining the true activation energy distribution function for thermal annealing without the assumption of any distribution function form or a constant preexponential factor. It appears that the true activation energy distribution function consists of two separate parts corresponding to different temperature ranges, suggesting different mechanisms in different temperature ranges. Partially burnt coal chars were also collected along the reactor when the coal was oxidized in air at various temperatures from 700 to 1475 degreesC. The collected samples were analyzed for the residual carbon content and the specific reaction rate was estimated. The characteristic time of thermal deactivation was compared with that of oxidation under realistic conditions. The characteristic times were found to be close to each other, indicating the importance of thermal deactivation during combustion of the coal studied.

An investigation of the thermal and tensile properties of PFA following γ-radiolysis

For some applications for fluoropolymers they must be subjected to high-energy radiation, e.g., when they are grafted with styrene using an irradiation method to produce fuel cell membranes or matrix supports for combinatorial chemistry. In some of these applications they may be subjected to mechanical stress or elevated temperature, so it is important to elucidate the effects of the radiolysis on these properties. In the present work the effect of gamma-radiolysis on the glass transition, melting behavior, and thermal stability of PFA has been studied as well as the effect of the radiolysis on the tensile properties of the polymer.

Thermal and hydrolytic degradation of electrospun fish gelatin membranes

The thermal and hydrolytic degradation of electrospun gelatin membranes cross-linked with glutaraldehyde in vapor phase has been studied. In vitro degradation of gelatin membranes was evaluated in phosphate buffer saline solution at 37 ºC. After 15 days under these conditions, a weight loss of 68 % was observed, attributed to solvation and depolymerization of the main polymeric chains. Thermal degradation kinetics of the gelatin raw material and as-spun electrospun membranes showed that the electrospinning processing conditions do not influence polymer degradation. However, for cross-linked samples a decrease in the activation energy was observed, associated with the effect of glutaraldehyde cross-linking reaction in the inter- and intra-molecular hydrogen bonds of the protein. It is also shown that the electrospinning process does not affect the formation of the helical structure of gelatin chains.

Thermal skin reference values in healthy late pregnancy

Digital thermal imaging has been employed in medicine for over 50 years. However, its use has been focused on vascular, musculoskeletal and neurological conditions, while other potential applications,such as obstetrics, have been much less explored. This paper presents a study conducted during 2011 at the Hospital of Braga on a group of healthy pregnant women in the last third of gestation. The analysis focused on characterizing typical pregnant women steady temperature profiles in specific defined regions of interest (ROI), and determining if the thermal symmetry values for late pregnant healthy women are in line with the values for non-pregnant healthy women. A temperature distribution pattern was found in the defined ROI. The obtained thermal symmetry value had a maximum of 0.370.2 1C, and there was no evidence for the influence of age (p40.05) in the observed group. The influence of the BMI requires further investigation since one ROI (P2 right) presented a p¼0.059, close to the threshold of statistical evidence in the influence of BMI. The study group presented symmetry values in line with non-pregnant reference values, but the profiles in temperature distribution are different. Assumptions can therefore now be used with higher confidence when assessing abnormalities in specific pathologic states during pregnancy using the defined ROI. This work represents a first contribution towards establishing guidelines for future research in this specific field of study.