RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

Residential planning, driver mobility and CO2 emission

The literature on residences and citizens’ transports has focused on either reforming traffic managing in response to residential relocation or post-evaluation of urban planning policies or the evolution of the urban spatial form. In a city there are hotspots that attract the citizens and most of the transportation in the city arises as the citizens’ movement between their residence and the hotspots. Little scholarly attention has been devoted to the possibility to minimize citizens’ transportation in the city by the urban planning of residential areas. In this paper we propose a method to evaluate the environmental impact (in terms of CO2-emissions) of urban plans of residential areas. The method is illustrated in a Swedish case of a midsize city which is presently preoccupied with urban planning of new residential areas in response to substantial population growth due to immigration. The residential plans aims to increase the compactness and residential density in the current center and sub centers leads to less CO2 emissions compare to urban expansion to the edge of the city. The plans of concentrated apartment buildings are more effective in meeting residential needs and mitigating CO2 emissions than dispersed single-family houses.

Diurnal temporal patterns of the diversity and the abundance of reef fishes in a branching coral patch in New Caledonia

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in animal abundance is an intrinsic characteristic of marine ecosystems but remains largely unknown for most animals, including coral reef fishes. In this study, we used a remote autonomous unbaited video system and recorded reef fish assemblages during daylight hours, 10 times a day for 34 consecutive days in a branching coral patch of the lagoon of New Caledonia. In total, 50 031 fish observations belonging to 114 taxa, 66 genera and 31 families were recorded in 256 recorded videos. Carnivores and herbivore-detritus feeders dominated the trophic structure. We found significant variations in the composition of fish assemblages between times of day. Taxa richness and fish abundance were greater in the early morning and in the late afternoon than during the day. Fourteen taxa displayed well-defined temporal patterns in abundance with one taxon influenced by time of day, six influenced by tidal state and seven influenced by both time of day and tidal state. None of these 14 taxa were piscivores, 10 were herbivore-detritus feeders, three were carnivores and one was plankton feeder. Our results suggest a diel migration from feeding grounds to shelter areas and highlight the importance of taking into account small-scale temporal variability in animal diversity and abundance when studying connectivity between habitats and monitoring communities.

Super-orbital variability of LS I+61 degrees 303 at TeV energies

Context. The gamma-ray binary LS I +61º303 is a well-established source from centimeter radio up to very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV). The broadband emission shows a periodicity of ∼26.5 days, coincident with the orbital period. A longer (super-orbital) period of 1667 ± 8 days was proposed from radio variability and confirmed using optical and high-energy (HE; E ¿ 100 MeV) gamma-ray observations. In this paper, we report on a four-year campaign performed by MAGIC together with archival data concentrating on a search for a long-timescale signature in the VHE emission from LS I +61º303. Aims. We focus on the search for super-orbital modulation of the VHE emission, similar to that observed at other energies, and on the search for correlations between TeV emission and an optical determination of the extension of the circumstellar disk. Methods. A four-year campaign has been carried out using the MAGIC telescopes. The source was observed during the orbital phases when the periodic VHE outbursts have occurred (φ = 0.55 – 0.75, one orbit = 26.496 days). Additionally, we included archival MAGIC observations and data published by the VERITAS collaboration in these studies. For the correlation studies, LS I +61◦303 has also been observed during the orbital phases where sporadic VHE emission had been detected in the past (φ = 0.75 – 1.0). These MAGIC observations were simultaneous with optical spectroscopy from the LIVERPOOL telescope. Results. The TeV flux of the periodical outburst in orbital phases φ = 0.5 – 0.75 was found to show yearly variability consistent with the long-term modulation of ∼4.5 years found in the radio band. This modulation of the TeV flux can be well described by a sine function with a best-fit period of 1610±58 days. The complete data, including archival observations, span two super-orbital periods. There is no evidence for a correlation between the TeV emission and the mass-loss rate of the Be star, but this may be affected by the strong, short-timescale (as short as intra-day) variation displayed by the Hα fluxes.

Investigating the peculiar emission from the new VHE gamma-ray source H1722+119

The MAGIC (Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov) telescopes observed the BL Lac object H1722+119 (redshift unknown) for six consecutive nights between 2013 May 17 and 22, for a total of 12.5 h. The observations were triggered by high activity in the optical band measured by the KVA (Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien) telescope. The source was for the first time detected in the very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ-ray band with a statistical significance of 5.9 σ. The integral flux above 150 GeV is estimated to be (2.0 ± 0.5) per cent of the Crab Nebula flux. We used contemporaneous high energy (HE, 100MeV < E < 100 GeV) γ-ray observations from Fermi-LAT (Large Area Telescope) to estimate the redshift of the source. Within the framework of the current extragalactic background light models, we estimate the redshift to be z = 0.34±0.15. Additionally, we used contemporaneous X-ray to radio data collected by the instruments on board the Swift satellite, the KVA, and the OVRO (Owens Valley Radio Observatory) telescope to study multifrequency characteristics of the source. We found no significant temporal variability of the flux in the HE and VHE bands. The flux in the optical and radio wavebands, on the other hand, did vary with different patterns. The spectral energy distribution (SED) of H1722+119 shows surprising behaviour in the ∼ 3×1014 −1018 Hz frequency range. It can be modelled using an inhomogeneous helical jet synchrotron self-Compton model.

A Cost Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Strategies For New Plants In Michigan's Electric Power Sector

This thesis attempts to find the least-cost strategy to reduce CO2 emission by replacing coal by other energy sources for electricity generation in the context of the proposed EPA’s regulation on CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. An ARIMA model is built to forecast coal consumption for electricity generation and its CO2 emissions in Michigan from 2016 to 2020. CO2 emission reduction costs are calculated under three emission reduction scenarios- reduction to 17%, 30% and 50% below the 2005 emission level. The impacts of Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the intermittency of renewable energy are also discussed. The results indicate that in most cases natural gas will be the best alternative to coal for electricity generation to realize CO2 reduction goals; if the PTC for wind power will continue after 2015, a natural gas and wind combination approach could be the best strategy based on the least-cost criterion.

Monitoring pasture variability: optical OptRx® crop sensor versus Grassmaster II capacitance probe

Estimation of pasture productivity is an important step for the farmer in terms of planning animal stocking, organizing animal lots, and determining supplementary feeding needs throughout the year. The main objective of this work was to evaluate technologies which have potential for monitoring aspects related to spatial and temporal variability of pasture green and dry matter yield (respectively, GM and DM, in kg/ha) and support to decision making for the farmer. Two types of sensors were evaluated: an active optical sensor(OptRx®, which measures the NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and a capacitance probe (GrassMaster II which estimates plant mass). The results showed the potential of NDVI for monitoring the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of vegetative growth of biodiverse pasture. Higher NDVI values were registered as pasture approached its greatest vegetative vigor, with a significant fall in the measured NDVI at the end of Spring, when the pasture began to dry due to the combination of higher temperatures and lower soil moisture content. This index was also effective for identifying different plant species (grasses/legumes) and variability in pasture yield. Furthermore, it was possible to develop calibration equations between the capacitance and the NDVI (R2 = 0.757; p < 0.01), between capacitance and GM (R2 = 0.799; p<0.01), between capacitance and DM (R2 = 0.630; p<0.01), between NDVI and GM (R2=0.745; p < 0.01), and between capacitance and DM (R2=0.524; p<0.01). Finally, a direct relationship was obtained between NDVI and pasture moisture content (PMC, in %) and between capacitance and PMC (respectively, R2 = 0.615; p<0.01 and R2=0.561; p <0.01) in Alentejo dryland farming systems.

Carbon Stocks in Compartments of Soil Organic Matter 31 Years after Substitution of Native Cerrado Vegetation by Agroecosystems.

ABSTRACT: Changes in carbon stocks in different compartments of soil organic matter of a clayey Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico (Typic Haplustox), caused by the substitution of native savanna vegetation (cerrado sensu stricto) by agroecosystems, were assessed after 31 years of cultivation. Under native vegetation, a stock of 164.5 Mg ha-1 C was estimated in the 0.00-1.00 m layer. After 31 years of cultivation, these changes in soil C stocks were detected to a depth of 0.60 m. In the case of substitution of cerrado sensu stricto by no-tillage soybean-corn rotation, a reduction of at least 11 % of the soil C pools was observed. However, the adoption of no-tillage as an alternative to tillage with a moldboard plow (conventional system) reduced CO2 emissions by up to 12 %.

Preharvest factors affecting quality and antioxidant levels on Abate Fétel pears: study of superficial scald with a multivariate statistical approach and neural networks

There are only a few insights concerning the influence that agronomic and management variability may have on superficial scald (SS) in pears. Abate Fétel pears were picked during three seasons (2018, 2019 and 2020) from thirty commercial orchards in the Emilia Romagna region, Italy. Using a multivariate statistical approach, high heterogeneity between farms for SS development after cold storage with regular atmosphere was demonstrated. Indeed, some factors seem to affect SS in all growing seasons: high yields, soil texture, improper irrigation and Nitrogen management, use of plant growth regulators, late harvest, precipitations, Calcium and cow manure, presence of nets, orchard age, training system and rootstock. Afterwards, we explored the spatio/temporal variability of fruit attributes in two pear orchards. Environmental and physiological spatial variables were recorded by a portable RTK GPS. High spatial variability of the SS index was observed. Through a geostatistical approach, some characteristics, including soil electrical conductivity and fruit size, have been shown to be negatively correlated with SS. Moreover, regression tree analyses were applied suggesting the presence of threshold values of antioxidant capacity, total phenolic content, and acidity against SS. High pulp firmness and IAD values before storage, denoting a more immature fruit, appeared to be correlated with low SS. Finally, a convolution neural networks (CNN) was tested to detect SS and the starch pattern index (SPI) in pears for portable device applications. Preliminary statistics showed that the model for SS had low accuracy but good precision, and the CNN for SPI denoted good performances compared to the Ctifl and Laimburg scales. The major conclusion is that Abate Fétel pears can potentially be stored in different cold rooms, according to their origin and quality features, ensuring the best fruit quality for the final consumers. These results might lead to a substantial improvement in the Italian pear industry.

Ship performance modelling for least-CO2 emission routes

Decarbonization of maritime transport requires immediate action. In the short term, ship weather routing can provide greenhouse gas emission reductions, even for existing ships and without retrofitting them. Weather routing is based on making optimal use of both envi- ronmental information and knowledge about vessel seakeeping and performance. Combining them at a state-of-the-art level and making use of path planning in realistic conditions can be challenging. To address these topics in an open-source framework, this thesis led to the development of a new module called bateau , and to its combination with the ship routing model VISIR. bateau includes both hull geometry and propulsion modelling for various vessel types. It has two objectives: to predict the sustained speed in a seaway and to estimate the CO2 emission rate during the voyage. Various semi-empirical approaches were used in bateau to predict the ship hydro- and aerodynamical resistance in both head and oblique seas. Assuming that the ship sails at a constant engine load, the involuntary speed loss due to waves was estimated. This thesis also attempted to clarify the role played by the actual representation of the sea state. In particular, the influence of the wave steepness parameter was assessed. For dealing with ships with a greater superstructure, the wind added resistance was also estimated. Numerical experiments via bateau were conducted for both a medium and a large-size container ships, a bulk-carrier, and a tanker. The simulations of optimal routes were carried out for a feeder containership during voyages in the North Indian Ocean and in the South China Sea. Least-CO2 routes were compared to the least-distance ones, assessing the relative CO2 savings. Analysis fields from the Copernicus Marine Service were used in the numerical experiments.

Changes In The Bacterial Community Of Soil From A Neutral Mine Drainage Channel.

Mine drainage is an important environmental disturbance that affects the chemical and biological components in natural resources. However, little is known about the effects of neutral mine drainage on the soil bacteria community. Here, a high-throughput 16S rDNA pyrosequencing approach was used to evaluate differences in composition, structure, and diversity of bacteria communities in samples from a neutral drainage channel, and soil next to the channel, at the Sossego copper mine in Brazil. Advanced statistical analyses were used to explore the relationships between the biological and chemical data. The results showed that the neutral mine drainage caused changes in the composition and structure of the microbial community, but not in its diversity. The Deinococcus/Thermus phylum, especially the Meiothermus genus, was in large part responsible for the differences between the communities, and was positively associated with the presence of copper and other heavy metals in the environmental samples. Other important parameters that influenced the bacterial diversity and composition were the elements potassium, sodium, nickel, and zinc, as well as pH. The findings contribute to the understanding of bacterial diversity in soils impacted by neutral mine drainage, and demonstrate that heavy metals play an important role in shaping the microbial population in mine environments.

Molecular Genetic Variability Of Commercial And Wild Accessions Of Passion Fruit (passiflora Spp.) Targeting Ex Situ Conservation And Breeding.

Passiflora species are distributed throughout Latin America, and Brazil and Colombia serve as the centers of diversity for this genus. We performed cross-species amplification to evaluate 109 microsatellite loci in 14 Passiflora species and estimated the diversity and genetic structure of Passiflora cincinnata, Passiflora setaceae and Passiflora edulis. A total of 127 accessions, including 85 accessions of P. edulis, a commercial species, and 42 accessions of 13 wild species, were examined. The cross-species amplification was effective for obtaining microsatellite loci (average cross-amplification of 70%). The average number of alleles per locus (five) was relatively low, and the average diversity ranged from 0.52 in P. cincinnata to 0.32 in P. setacea. The Bayesian analyses indicated that the P. cincinnata and P. setacea accessions were distributed into two groups, and the P. edulis accessions were distributed into five groups. Private alleles were identified, and suggestions for core collections are presented. Further collections are necessary, and the information generated may be useful for breeding and conservation.