789 resultados para systematic mapping study


Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Abstract Despite the large number of studies evaluating social support groups for people with dementia, there are no systematic reviews of current evidence.The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of social support group interventions for people with dementia and mild cognitive impairment.A systematic review was performed. We searched electronic databases for randomised controlled trials. Two reviewers worked independently to select trials, extract data and assess risk of bias. A total of 546 studies were identified of which two met the inclusion criteria. We were not able to pool data for further analyses, as the interventions tested in the studies meeting the inclusion criteria were too dissimilar in content.The first trial (n = 136) showed a benefit of early-stage memory loss social support groups for depression and quality of life in people with dementia.The second trial (n = 33) showed that post-treatment self-reported self-esteem was higher in the group receiving a multicomponent intervention of social support compared with that in the no intervention control group.Limited data from two studies suggest that support groups may be of psychological benefit to people with dementia by reducing depression and improving quality of life and self-esteem.These findings need to be viewed in light of the small number, small sample size and heterogeneous characteristics of current trials, indicating that it is difficult to draw any conclusions. More multicentre randomised controlled trials in social support group interventions for people with dementia are needed.������������

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Résumé : Objectif: Etudier les comportements émotionnels chez les patients ayant souffert d'un accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC) Contexte: Les modifications du comportement émotionnel après un AVC sont actuellement bien reconnues mais ont été très peu étudiées dans la phase aigüe de l'AVC. Méthode: Tous les patients présentant un AVC datant de moins de 24 heures ont été inclus prospectivement. Nous avons validé une échelle (the Emotional Behavior Index (EBI)), comprenant 38 qualificatifs, représentant la tristesse, l'agressivité, la désinhibition, l'adaptation, la passivité, l'indifférence et le déni. Les informations cliniques et radiologiques (CT et IRM) ont été obtenues par le biais de notre Registre des AVC. L'analyse statistique a été faite au moyen de tests uni- et multi-variés Résultats: Des 254 patients inclus, 40% présentaient de la tristesse, 49% de la passivité, 17% de l'agressivité, 53% de l'indifférence, 76% de la désinhibition, 18% un manque d'adaptation et 44% une réaction de déni. Plusieurs interactions statistiquement significatives ont été mises en évidence. En effet, la tristesse semble corréler à des antécédents d'alcoolisme (r = p< 0.037), au sexe féminin (r = p<0.028) et à la nature hémorragique de l'AVC (r = p<0.063). L'agressivité corrèle à des antécédents de troubles dépressifs (r = p<0.046) et à la nature hémorragique de l'AVC (r = p<0.06). Le déni corrèle plutôt au sexe masculin (r = p<0.035) et aux lésions hémorragiques (r = p<0.05). Le comportement émotionnel ne corrèle ni au degré et type d'atteinte neurologique, ni à la localisation de l'AVC mais une association entre Les lésions hémorragiques et un comportement agressif a été mis en évidence (p<0.001) de même qu'avec un manque d'adaptation (r = p<0.015), une certaine indifférence (r = p<0.018) et une réaction de déni (r = p<0.045). Conclusion: L'observation systématique des modifications du comportement émotionnel après un AVC suggère que les altérations émotionnelles sont indépendantes de la thymie et de l'atteinte physique et représentent donc probablement des séquelles à part entière de l'AVC. Abstract: Objective: To study emotional behaviors in an acute stroke population. Background: Alterations in emotional behavior after stroke have been recently recognized, but little attention has been paid to these changes in the very acute phase of stroke. Methods: Adult patients presenting with acute stroke were prospectively recruited and studied. We validated the Emotional Behavior Index (EBI), a 38-item scale designed to evaluate behavioral aspects of sadness, aggressiveness, disinhibition, adaptation, passivity, indifference, and denial. Clinical, historical, and imaging (computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging) data were obtained on each subject through our Stroke Registry. Statistical analysis was performed with both univariate and multivariate tests. Results: Of the 254 patients, 40% showed sadness, 49% passivity, 17% aggressiveness, 53% indifference, 76% disinhibition, 18% lack of adaptation, and 44% denial reactions. Several significant correlations were identified. Sadness was correlated with a personal history of alcohol abuse (r = P < 0.037), female gender (r = P < 0.028), and hemorrhagic nature of the stroke (r = P < 0.063). Aggressiveness was correlated with a personal history of depression (r = P < 0.046) and hemorrhage (r = P < 0.06). Denial was correlated with male gender (r= P < 0.035) and hemorrhagic lesions (r = P < 0.05). Emotional behavior did not correlate with either neurologic impairment or lesion localization, but there was an association between hemorrhage and aggressive behavior (P < 0.001), lack of adaptation (r = P < 0.015), indifference (r = P < 0.018), and denial (r = P < 0.045). Conclusions: Systematic observations of acute emotional behaviors after stroke suggest that emotional alterations are independent of mood and physical status and should be considered as a separate consequence of stroke.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The incidence of fungal infections in immuno-compromised patients increased considerably over the last 30 years. New treatments are therefore needed against pathogenic fungi. With Candida albicans as a model, study of host-fungal pathogen interactions might reveal new sources of therapies. Transcription factors (TF) are of interest since they integrate signals from the host environment and participate in an adapted microbial response. TFs of the Zn2-Cys6 class are specific to fungi and are important regulators of fungal metabolism. This work analyzed the importance of the C. albicans Zn2-Cys6 TF for mice kidney colonization. For this purpose, 77 Zn2-Cys6 TF mutants were screened in a systemic mice model of infection by pools of 10 mutants. We developed a simple barcoding strategy to specifically detect each mutant DNA from mice kidney by quantitative PCR. Among the 77 TF mutant strains tested, eight showed a decreased colonization including mutants for orf19.3405, orf19.255, orf19.5133, RGT1, UGA3, orf19.6182, SEF1 and orf19.2646, and four an increased colonization including mutants for orf19.4166, ZFU2, orf19.1685 and UPC2 as compared to the isogenic wild type strain. Our approach was validated by comparable results obtained with the same animal model using a single mutant and the revertant for an ORF (orf19.2646) with still unknown functions. In an attempt to identify putative involvement of such TFs in already known C. albicans virulence mechanisms, we determined their in vitro susceptibility to pH, heat and oxidative stresses, as well as ability to produce hyphae and invade agar. A poor correlation was found between in vitro and in vivo assays, thus suggesting that TFs needed for mice kidney colonization may involve still unknown mechanisms. This large-scale analysis of mice organ colonization by C. albicans can now be extended to other mutant libraries since our in vivo screening strategy can be adapted to any preexisting mutants.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The analysis of genetic data for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is essential to improve treatment and public health strategies as well as to select strains for vaccine programs. However, the analysis of large quantities of genetic data requires collaborative efforts in bioinformatics, computer biology, molecular biology, evolution, and medical science. The objective of this study was to review and improve the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 and HTLV-1 viruses isolated in Brazil using bioinformatic tools available in the Laboratório Avançado de Sáude Pública (Lasp) bioinformatics unit. The analysis of HIV-1 isolates confirmed a heterogeneous distribution of the viral genotypes circulating in the country. The Brazilian HIV-1 epidemic is characterized by the presence of multiple subtypes (B, F1, C) and B/F1 recombinant virus while, on the other hand, most of the HTLV-1 sequences were classified as Transcontinental subgroup of the Cosmopolitan subtype. Despite the high variation among HIV-1 subtypes, protein glycosylation and phosphorylation domains were conserved in the pol, gag, and env genes of the Brazilian HIV-1 strains suggesting constraints in the HIV-1 evolution process. As expected, the functional protein sites were highly conservative in the HTLV-1 env gene sequences. Furthermore, the presence of these functional sites in HIV-1 and HTLV-1 strains could help in the development of vaccines that pre-empt the viral escape process.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

INTRODUCTION: Numerous instruments have been developed to assess spirituality and measure its association with health outcomes. This study's aims were to identify instruments used in clinical research that measure spirituality; to propose a classification of these instruments; and to identify those instruments that could provide information on the need for spiritual intervention. METHODS: A systematic literature search in MEDLINE, CINHAL, PsycINFO, ATLA, and EMBASE databases, using the terms "spirituality" and "adult$," and limited to journal articles was performed to identify clinical studies that used a spiritual assessment instrument. For each instrument identified, measured constructs, intended goals, and data on psychometric properties were retrieved. A conceptual and a functional classification of instruments were developed. RESULTS: Thirty-five instruments were retrieved and classified into measures of general spirituality (N = 22), spiritual well-being (N = 5), spiritual coping (N = 4), and spiritual needs (N = 4) according to the conceptual classification. Instruments most frequently used in clinical research were the FACIT-Sp and the Spiritual Well-Being Scale. Data on psychometric properties were mostly limited to content validity and inter-item reliability. According to the functional classification, 16 instruments were identified that included at least one item measuring a current spiritual state, but only three of those appeared suitable to address the need for spiritual intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Instruments identified in this systematic review assess multiple dimensions of spirituality, and the proposed classifications should help clinical researchers interested in investigating the complex relationship between spirituality and health. Findings underscore the scarcity of instruments specifically designed to measure a patient's current spiritual state. Moreover, the relatively limited data available on psychometric properties of these instruments highlight the need for additional research to determine whether they are suitable in identifying the need for spiritual interventions.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

BACKGROUND: Numerous trials of the efficacy of brief alcohol intervention have been conducted in various settings among individuals with a wide range of alcohol disorders. Nevertheless, the efficacy of the intervention is likely to be influenced by the context. We evaluated the evidence of efficacy of brief alcohol interventions aimed at reducing long-term alcohol use and related harm in individuals attending primary care facilities but not seeking help for alcohol-related problems. METHODS: We selected randomized trials reporting at least 1 outcome related to alcohol consumption conducted in outpatients who were actively attending primary care centers or seeing providers. Data sources were the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, ISI Web of Science, ETOH database, and bibliographies of retrieved references and previous reviews. Study selection and data abstraction were performed independently and in duplicate. We assessed the validity of the studies and performed a meta-analysis of studies reporting alcohol consumption at 6 or 12 months of follow-up. RESULTS: We examined 19 trials that included 5639 individuals. Seventeen trials reported a measure of alcohol consumption, of which 8 reported a significant effect of intervention. The adjusted intention-to-treat analysis showed a mean pooled difference of -38 g of ethanol (approximately 4 drinks) per week (95% confidence interval, -51 to -24 g/wk) in favor of the brief alcohol intervention group. Evidence of other outcome measures was inconclusive. CONCLUSION: Focusing on patients in primary care, our systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that brief alcohol intervention is effective in reducing alcohol consumption at 6 and 12 months.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This article uses a mixed methods design to investigate the effects of social influence on family formation in a sample of eastern and western German young adults at an early stage of their family formation. Theoretical propositions on the importance of informal interaction for fertility and family behavior are still rarely supported by systematic empirical evidence. Major problems are the correct identification of salient relationships and the comparability of social networks across population subgroups. This article addresses the two issues through a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. In-depth interviewing, network charts, and network grids are used to map individual personal relationships and their influence on family formation decisions. In addition, an analysis of friendship dyads is provided.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study was carried out to evaluate the molecular pattern of all available Brazilian human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 Env (n = 15) and Pol (n = 43) nucleotide sequences via epitope prediction, physico-chemical analysis, and protein potential sites identification, giving support to the Brazilian AIDS vaccine program. In 12 previously described peptides of the Env sequences we found 12 epitopes, while in 4 peptides of the Pol sequences we found 4 epitopes. The total variation on the amino acid composition was 9 and 17% for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and class II Env epitopes, respectively. After analyzing the Pol sequences, results revealed a total amino acid variation of 0.75% for HLA-I and HLA-II epitopes. In 5 of the 12 Env epitopes the physico-chemical analysis demonstrated that the mutations magnified the antigenicity profile. The potential protein domain analysis of Env sequences showed the loss of a CK-2 phosphorylation site caused by D197N mutation in one epitope, and a N-glycosylation site caused by S246Y and V247I mutations in another epitope. Besides, the analysis of selection pressure have found 8 positive selected sites (w = 9.59) using the codon-based substitution models and maximum-likelihood methods. These studies underscore the importance of this Env region for the virus fitness, for the host immune response and, therefore, for the development of vaccine candidates.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

ABSTRACT¦Naturally acquired tumor-specific T-cells can be detected in most advanced cancer patients.¦Yet, they often fail to control or eliminate the disease, in contrast to many virus-specific CD8¦T lymphocytes. Therapeutic vaccines aim at inducing and boosting specific T-cells mediated¦immunity to reduce tumor burden. The properties of CD8 T-cells required for protection from¦infectious disease and cancer are only partially characterized.¦The objectives of this study were to assess effector functions, stage of differentiation and¦clonotype selection of tumor-reactive T lymphocytes following peptide vaccination in¦melanoma patients over time. Results were compared to protective viral-specific T-cell¦responses found in healthy individuals. We also characterized dominant versus low/non¦dominant T-cell clonotypes with the aim to further understand the in vivo function of each set¦of frequency-based specific T-cells.¦Here we developed and applied a novel approach for molecular and functional analysis of¦single T lymphocytes ex vivo. T-cell receptor (TCR) clonotype mapping revealed rapid¦selection and expansion of co-dominant T-cell clonotypes, which made up the majority of the¦highly differentiated "effector" T-cells, but only 25% of the less differentiated "effectormemory"¦cells, mostly composed of non-dominant clonotypes. Moreover, we show that¦advanced effector cell differentiation was indeed clonotype-dependent. Surprisingly, however,¦the acquisition of effector functions (cytokine production, killing) was clonotype-independent.¦Vaccination of melanoma patients with native peptide induced competent effector function in¦both dominant and non-dominant clonotypes, suggesting that most if not all clonotypes¦participating in a T-cell response have the potential to develop equal functional competence.¦In contrast, many T-cells remained poorly functional after vaccination with analog peptide,¦despite similar clonotype-dependent differentiation. Our findings show that the type of¦peptide vaccine has a critical influence on the selection and functional activation of the¦clonotypic T-cell repertoire. They also show that systematic assessment of individual T-cells¦identifies the cellular basis of immune responses, contributing to the rational development of¦vaccines.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to establish an accurate and reproducible T(2)-mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) methodology at 3 T and to evaluate it in healthy volunteers and patients with myocardial infarct. BACKGROUND: Myocardial edema affects the T(2) relaxation time on CMR. Therefore, T(2)-mapping has been established to characterize edema at 1.5 T. A 3 T implementation designed for longitudinal studies and aimed at guiding and monitoring therapy remains to be implemented, thoroughly characterized, and evaluated in vivo. METHODS: A free-breathing navigator-gated radial CMR pulse sequence with an adiabatic T(2) preparation module and an empirical fitting equation for T(2) quantification was optimized using numerical simulations and was validated at 3 T in a phantom study. Its reproducibility for myocardial T(2) quantification was then ascertained in healthy volunteers and improved using an external reference phantom with known T(2). In a small cohort of patients with established myocardial infarction, the local T(2) value and extent of the edematous region were determined and compared with conventional T(2)-weighted CMR and x-ray coronary angiography, where available. RESULTS: The numerical simulations and phantom study demonstrated that the empirical fitting equation is significantly more accurate for T(2) quantification than that for the more conventional exponential decay. The volunteer study consistently demonstrated a reproducibility error as low as 2 ± 1% using the external reference phantom and an average myocardial T(2) of 38.5 ± 4.5 ms. Intraobserver and interobserver variability in the volunteers were -0.04 ± 0.89 ms (p = 0.86) and -0.23 ± 0.91 ms (p = 0.87), respectively. In the infarction patients, the T(2) in edema was 62.4 ± 9.2 ms and was consistent with the x-ray angiographic findings. Simultaneously, the extent of the edematous region by T(2)-mapping correlated well with that from the T(2)-weighted images (r = 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The new, well-characterized 3 T methodology enables robust and accurate cardiac T(2)-mapping at 3 T with high spatial resolution, while the addition of a reference phantom improves reproducibility. This technique may be well suited for longitudinal studies in patients with suspected or established heart disease.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Objective: The purpose of this study was to find loci for major depression via linkage analysis of a large sibling pair sample. Method: The authors conducted a genome-wide linkage analysis of 839 families consisting of 971 affected sibling pairs with severe recurrent major depression, comprising waves I and II of the Depression Network Study cohort. In addition to examining affected status, linkage analyses in the full data set were performed using diagnoses restricted by impairment severity, and association mapping of hits in a large case-control data set was attempted. Results: The authors identified genome-wide significant linkage to chromosome 3p25-26 when the diagnoses were restricted by severity, which was a maximum LOD score of 4.0 centered at the linkage marker D3S1515. The linkage signal identified was genome-wide significant after correction for the multiple phenotypes tested, although subsequent association mapping of the region in a genome-wide association study of a U.K. depression sample did not provide significant results. Conclusions: The authors report a genome-wide significant locus for depression that implicates genes that are highly plausible for involvement in the etiology of recurrent depression. Despite the fact that association mapping in the region was negative, the linkage finding was replicated by another group who found genome-wide-significant linkage for depression in the same region. This suggests that 3p25-26 is a new locus for severe recurrent depression. This represents the first report of a genome-wide significant locus for depression that also has an independent genome-wide significant replication.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

INTRODUCTION Functional imaging studies of addiction following protracted abstinence have not been systematically conducted to look at the associations between severity of use of different drugs and brain dysfunction. Findings from such studies may be relevant to implement specific interventions for treatment. The aim of this study was to examine the association between resting-state regional brain metabolism (measured with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography (FDG-PET) and the severity of use of cocaine, heroin, alcohol, MDMA and cannabis in a sample of polysubstance users with prolonged abstinence from all drugs used. METHODS Our sample consisted of 49 polysubstance users enrolled in residential treatment. We conducted correlation analyses between estimates of use of cocaine, heroin, alcohol, MDMA and cannabis and brain metabolism (BM) (using Statistical Parametric Mapping voxel-based (VB) whole-brain analyses). In all correlation analyses conducted for each of the drugs we controlled for the co-abuse of the other drugs used. RESULTS The analysis showed significant negative correlations between severity of heroin, alcohol, MDMA and cannabis use and BM in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and temporal cortex. Alcohol use was further associated with lower metabolism in frontal premotor cortex and putamen, and stimulants use with parietal cortex. CONCLUSIONS Duration of use of different drugs negatively correlated with overlapping regions in the DLPFC, whereas severity of cocaine, heroin and alcohol use selectively impact parietal, temporal, and frontal-premotor/basal ganglia regions respectively. The knowledge of these associations could be useful in the clinical practice since different brain alterations have been associated with different patterns of execution that may affect the rehabilitation of these patients.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Clonally complex infections by Mycobacterium tuberculosis are progressively more accepted. Studies of their dimension in epidemiological scenarios where the infective pressure is not high are scarce. Our study systematically searched for clonally complex infections (mixed infections by more than one strain and simultaneous presence of clonal variants) by applying mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit (MIRU)-variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) analysis to M. tuberculosis isolates from two population-based samples of respiratory (703 cases) and respiratory-extrapulmonary (R+E) tuberculosis (TB) cases (71 cases) in a context of moderate TB incidence. Clonally complex infections were found in 11 (1.6%) of the respiratory TB cases and in 10 (14.1%) of those with R+E TB. Among the 21 cases with clonally complex TB, 9 were infected by 2 independent strains and the remaining 12 showed the simultaneous presence of 2 to 3 clonal variants. For the 10 R+E TB cases with clonally complex infections, compartmentalization (different compositions of strains/clonal variants in independent infected sites) was found in 9 of them. All the strains/clonal variants were also genotyped by IS6110-based restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis, which split two MIRU-defined clonal variants, although in general, it showed a lower discriminatory power to identify the clonal heterogeneity revealed by MIRU-VNTR analysis. The comparative analysis of IS6110 insertion sites between coinfecting clonal variants showed differences in the genes coding for a cutinase, a PPE family protein, and two conserved hypothetical proteins. Diagnostic delay, existence of previous TB, risk for overexposure, and clustered/orphan status of the involved strains were analyzed to propose possible explanations for the cases with clonally complex infections. Our study characterizes in detail all the clonally complex infections by M. tuberculosis found in a systematic survey and contributes to the characterization that these phenomena can be found to an extent higher than expected, even in an unselected population-based sample lacking high infective pressure.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG). We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.