956 resultados para stock order flow model


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Ice-rafting evidence for a '1500-year cycle' sparked considerable debate on millennial-scale climate change and the role of solar variability. Here, we reinterpret the last 70,000 years of the subpolar North Atlantic record, focusing on classic DSDP Site 609, in the context of newly available raw data, the latest radiocarbon calibration (Marine09) and ice core chronology (GICC05), and a wider range of statistical methodologies. A ~1500-year oscillation is primarily limited to the short glacial Stage 4, the age of which is derived solely from an ice flow model (ss09sea), subject to uncertainty, and offset most from the original chronology. Results from the most well-dated, younger interval suggest that the original 1500 ± 500 year cycle may actually be an admixture of the ~1000 and ~2000 cycles that are observed within the Holocene at multiple locations. In Holocene sections these variations are coherent with 14C and 10Be estimates of solar variability. Our new results suggest that the '1500-year cycle' may be a transient phenomenon whose origin could be due, for example, to ice sheet boundary conditions for the interval in which it is observed. We therefore question whether it is necessary to invoke such exotic explanations as heterodyne frequencies or combination tones to explain a phenomenon of such fleeting occurrence that is potentially an artifact of arithmetic averaging.

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A set of numerical equations is developed to estimate past sea surface temperatures (SST) from fossil Antarctic diatoms. These equations take into account both the biogeographic distribution and experimentally derived silica dissolution. The data represent a revision and expansion of a floral data base used previously and includes samples resulting from progressive opal dissolution experiments. Factor analysis of 166 samples (124 Holocene core top and 42 artificial samples) resolved four factors. Three of these factors depend on the water mass distribution (one Subantarctic and two Antarctic assemblages); factor 4 corresponds to a 'dissolution assemblage'. Inclusion of this factor in the data analysis minimizes the effect of opal dissolution on the assemblages and gives accurate estimates of SST over a wide range of biosiliceous dissolution. A transfer function (DTF 166/34/4) is derived from the distribution of these factors versus summer SST. Its standard error is +/- 1°C in the -1 to +10 °C summer temperature range. This transfer function is used to estimate SST changes in two southern ocean cores (43°S and 55°S) which cover the last climatic cycle. The time scale is derived from the changes in foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopic ratios. The reconstructed SST records present strong analogies with the air temperature record over Antarctica at the Vostok site, derived from changes in the isotopic ratio of the ice. This similarity may be used to compare the oceanic isotope stratigraphy and the Vostok time scale derived from ice flow model. The oceanic time scale, if taken at face value, would indicate that large changes in ice accumulation rates occurred between warm and cold periods.

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