931 resultados para statistical study
Resumo:
Soil penetration resistance (PR) is a measure of soil compaction closely related to soil structure and plant growth. However, the variability in PR hampers the statistical analyses. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of soil PR on the efficiency of parametric and nonparametric analyses in indentifying significant effects of soil compaction and to classify the coefficient of variation of PR into low, medium, high and very high. On six dates, the PR of a typical dystrophic Red Ultisol under continuous no-tillage for 16 years was measured. Three tillage and/or traffic conditions were established with the application of: (i) no chiseling or additional traffic, (ii) additional compaction, and (iii) chiseling. On each date, the nineteen PR data (measured at every 1.5 cm to a depth of 28.5 cm) were grouped in layers with different thickness. In each layer, the treatment effects were evaluated by variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis analyses in a completely randomized design, and the coefficients of variation of all analyses were classified (low, intermediate, high and very high). The ANOVA performed better in discriminating the compaction effects, but the rejection rate of null hypothesis decreased from 100 to 80 % when the coefficient of variation increased from 15 to 26 %. The values of 15 and 26 % were the thresholds separating the low/intermediate and the high/very high coefficient variation classes of PR in this Ultisol.
Resumo:
La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.
Resumo:
The fast simultaneous hadronization and chemical freeze-out of supercooled quark-gluon plasma, created in relativistic heavy ion collisions, can lead to the reheating of the expanding matter and to the change in a collective flow profile. We use the assumption of statistical nature of the hadronization process, and study quantitatively the freeze-out in the framework of hydrodynamical Bjorken model with different simple quark-gluon plasma equations of state.
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We study the problem of front propagation in the presence of inertia. We extend the analytical approach for the overdamped problem to this case, and present numerical results to support our theoretical predictions. Specifically, we conclude that the velocity and shape selection problem can still be described in terms of the metastable, nonlinear, and linear overdamped regimes. We study the characteristic relaxation dynamics of these three regimes, and the existence of degenerate (¿quenched¿) solutions.
Resumo:
The project "Quantification and qualification of ambulatory health care", financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation and covering the Cantons of Vaud and Fribourg, has two main goals: --a structural study of the elements of the ambulatory care sector. This is done through inventories of the professions concerned (physicians, public health nurses, physiotherapists, pharmacists, medical laboratories), allowing to better characterize the "offer". This inventory work includes the collect and analysis of existing statistical data as well as surveys, by questionnaires sent (from September 1980) to the different professions and by interviews. --a functional study, inspired from the US National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and from similar studies elsewhere, in order to investigate the modes of practice of various providers, with particular regard to interprofessional collaboration (through studying referrals from the ones to the others). The first months of the project have been used for a methodological research in this regard, centered on the use of systems analysis, and for the elaboration of adequate instruments.
Resumo:
The CIAO Study is a multicenter observational study currently underway in 66 European medical institutions over the course of a six-month study period (January-June 2012).This preliminary report overviews the findings of the first half of the study, which includes all data from the first three months of the six-month study period.Patients with either community-acquired or healthcare-associated complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) were included in the study.912 patients with a mean age of 54.4 years (range 4-98) were enrolled in the study during the first three-month period. 47.7% of the patients were women and 52.3% were men. Among these patients, 83.3% were affected by community-acquired IAIs while the remaining 16.7% presented with healthcare-associated infections. Intraperitoneal specimens were collected from 64.2% of the enrolled patients, and from these samples, 825 microorganisms were collectively identified.The overall mortality rate was 6.4% (58/912). According to univariate statistical analysis of the data, critical clinical condition of the patient upon hospital admission (defined by severe sepsis and septic shock) as well as healthcare-associated infections, non-appendicular origin, generalized peritonitis, and serious comorbidities such as malignancy and severe cardiovascular disease were all significant risk factors for patient mortality.White Blood Cell counts (WBCs) greater than 12,000 or less than 4,000 and core body temperatures exceeding 38°C or less than 36°C by the third post-operative day were statistically significant indicators of patient mortality.
Resumo:
Potilaiden käsitys terveyteen liittyvästä elämänlaadusta lonkan tekonivelleikkauksen jälkeisenä toipumisaikana – kuuden kuukauden seurantatutkimus Tässä kaksivaiheisessa seurantatutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin potilaiden käsitystä terveyteen liittyvästä elämänlaadusta lonkan tekonivelleikkauksen jälkeisenä toipumisaikana. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa tarkoituksena oli sekä kuvailla potilaiden kokemuksia potilaana olosta, saamastaan hoidosta ja terveyspalveluorganisaatiosta että analysoida aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella leikkauksen tuloksia potilaan kannalta. Toisessa vaiheessa tarkoituksena oli arvioida potilaiden kokemaa elämänlaatua leikkauksen jälkeen, ja sitä vaikuttivatko primaaritulokset (fyysinen toimintakyky, kipu, ahdistus) tai taloudelliset seuraukset (potilaiden itsensämaksamat kustannukset, palvelujen käyttö) terveyteen liittyvään elämänlaatuun. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli löytää mahdolliset kriittiset ajankohdat tai tekijät, jotka saattavat hidastaa toipumista ja siten huonontaa potilaiden elämänlaatua. Tätä tietoa voidaan käyttää hoitotyössä kun suunnitellaan sopivaa hoitoa ja tukea toipumisajalle. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa primaarileikkaukseen tulevat potilaat (n = 17) kuvailivat teemahaastatteluissa kokemuksiaan kahdesti leikkauksen jälkeen. Haastatteluaineisto analysoitiin induktiivisella sisällönanalyysilla. Lisäksi 17 tutkimusartikkelista analysoitiin deduktiivisella sisällönanalyysilla leikkauksen tuloksia potilaalle, tuloksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä ja käytetyt tutkimusmetodit. Toisessa vaiheessa primaari- tai revisioleikkaukseen tulevat potilaat (n = 100) arvioivat leikkauksen tuloksia kuuden kuukauden ajan leikkauksen jälkeen: terveyteen liittyvää elämänlaatua, primaarituloksia ja taloudellisia seurauksia. Aineisto kerättiin erilaisilla mittareilla: Sickness Impact Profile, Finnish Version, Stait-Trait Anxiety Inventory, ja Numeric Rating Scale. Lisäksi käytettiin tätä tutkimusta varten tehtyjä kyselylomakkeita: Fyysinen toimintakyky-mittari, Palvelujen käyttö-mittari ja Kustannusmittari. Tutkimuksen toiseen vaiheen tulokset analysoitiin tilastollisilla menetelmillä. Potilaiden terveyteen liittyvä elämänlaatu parani ja kipu lievittyi leikkauksen jälkeen ja fyysinen toimintakyky lisääntyi toipumisaikana. Positiivisista muutoksista huolimatta potilaat kokivat ahdistusta samassa määrin kuin ennen leikkaustakin. Palvelujen käyttö vaihteli toipumisajan kuluessa ja potilaiden maksamissa kustannuksissa oli suuria vaihteluita. Fyysisen toimintakyvyn lisääntyminen ja kivun lieveneminen paransivat terveyteen liittyvää elämänlaatua. Sen sijaan huonompi elämänlaatu toipumisaikana oli yhteydessä suurempaan palvelujen käyttöön, kun taas kustannuksilla ei ollut yhteyttä elämänlaatuun. Potilaiden ominaispiirteet tulisi ottaa enemmän huomioon suunniteltaessa sopivaa leikkauksenjälkeistä hoitoa ja tukea. Potilaat tarvitsevat yksilöllisiä ohjeita, sillä monet taustatekijät (esim. ikä, sukupuoli, preoperatiivinen kipu, siviilisääty, ja leikkaustyyppi) vaikuttavat toipumiseen.
Resumo:
Soil properties have an enormous impact on economic and environmental aspects of agricultural production. Quantitative relationships between soil properties and the factors that influence their variability are the basis of digital soil mapping. The predictive models of soil properties evaluated in this work are statistical (multiple linear regression-MLR) and geostatistical (ordinary kriging and co-kriging). The study was conducted in the municipality of Bom Jardim, RJ, using a soil database with 208 sampling points. Predictive models were evaluated for sand, silt and clay fractions, pH in water and organic carbon at six depths according to the specifications of the consortium of digital soil mapping at the global level (GlobalSoilMap). Continuous covariates and categorical predictors were used and their contributions to the model assessed. Only the environmental covariates elevation, aspect, stream power index (SPI), soil wetness index (SWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and b3/b2 band ratio were significantly correlated with soil properties. The predictive models had a mean coefficient of determination of 0.21. Best results were obtained with the geostatistical predictive models, where the highest coefficient of determination 0.43 was associated with sand properties between 60 to 100 cm deep. The use of a sparse data set of soil properties for digital mapping can explain only part of the spatial variation of these properties. The results may be related to the sampling density and the quantity and quality of the environmental covariates and predictive models used.
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We conduct a large-scale comparative study on linearly combining superparent-one-dependence estimators (SPODEs), a popular family of seminaive Bayesian classifiers. Altogether, 16 model selection and weighing schemes, 58 benchmark data sets, and various statistical tests are employed. This paper's main contributions are threefold. First, it formally presents each scheme's definition, rationale, and time complexity and hence can serve as a comprehensive reference for researchers interested in ensemble learning. Second, it offers bias-variance analysis for each scheme's classification error performance. Third, it identifies effective schemes that meet various needs in practice. This leads to accurate and fast classification algorithms which have an immediate and significant impact on real-world applications. Another important feature of our study is using a variety of statistical tests to evaluate multiple learning methods across multiple data sets.
Resumo:
To analyse the association between chondrocalcinosis and osteoarthritis (OA) of the hands and knees in an unselected elderly rural population. METHODS--A community based cross sectional study was performed in individuals randomly selected from a previous epidemiological survey on the prevalence of chondrocalcinosis in people older than 60 years from Osona county, Catalonia, northeastern Spain. Radiological OA (grade 2 or more of Kellgren's classification) was evaluated in 26 individuals with chondrocalcinosis and in 104 controls. A total of 18 articular areas of both knees (medial and lateral tibiofemoral compartments) and hands (first, second and third metacarpophalangeal (MCP), first carpometacarpal, trapezium-scaphoid, radiocarpal and distal radioulnar joints) were studied. RESULTS--Radiological changes of OA in the knees were more common in subjects with chondrocalcinosis than in those without it, with an odds ratio adjusted for age and gender (aOR) of 4.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6 to 11.8, p = 0.005). OA was also more frequent in almost all areas of the hands in individuals with chondrocalcinosis, though the difference reached statistical significance only in the MCP joints (aOR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1 to 8.8; p = 0.033). However, taking into account the side and the different joint compartments analysed, the association between chondrocalcinosis and OA was significant only in the lateral tibiofemoral compartment and the left MCP joints. CONCLUSIONS--In an elderly population unselected for their rheumatic complaints, there was a real association between OA and chondrocalcinosis. This association was particularly relevant in the lateral tibiofemoral compartment of the knee and in the first three left MCP joints.
Resumo:
Background: To evaluate outcomes after optimized laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) for astigmatism correction with flap created by a mechanical microkeratome or a femtosecond laser. Patients and Methods: In this retrospective study, a total of 102 eyes of 71 consecutive patients were enrolled undergoing optimized LASIK treatments using the Allegretto laser system (WaveLight Laser Technologie AG, Erlangen, Germany). A mechanical microkeratome for flap creation was used (One Use, Moria®) in 46 eyes (31 patients, spherical equivalent [SE] -4.44 D ± 2.4) and a femtosecond laser was used (LDV, Ziemer®) in 56 eyes (40 patients, spherical equivalent [SE] -3.07 D ± 3.3). The two groups were matched for inclusion criteria and were operated under similar conditions by the same surgeon. Results: Overall, the preoperative spherical equivalent was -9.5 diopters (D) to +3.37 D; the preoperative manifest astigmatism was between -1.5 D and -3.5 D. At 6 months postoperatively, the mean postoperative uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA) was 0.93 ± 0.17 (range 0.4 to 1.2) in the Moria group and 1.0 ± 0.21 (range 0.6 to 1.6) in the Femto group, which was statistically significant (p = 0.003). Comparing the cylinder power there was a statistical difference between the two groups (p = 0.0015). Conclusions: This study shows that the method of flap creation has a significant impact on postoperative astigmatism with a significantly better postoperative UDVA in the Femto group. These findings suggest that the femtosecond laser provides a better platform for LASIK treatment of astigmatism than the commonly used microkeratome.
Resumo:
In this work, a previously-developed, statistical-based, damage-detection approach was validated for its ability to autonomously detect damage in bridges. The damage-detection approach uses statistical differences in the actual and predicted behavior of the bridge caused under a subset of ambient trucks. The predicted behavior is derived from a statistics-based model trained with field data from the undamaged bridge (not a finite element model). The differences between actual and predicted responses, called residuals, are then used to construct control charts, which compare undamaged and damaged structure data. Validation of the damage-detection approach was achieved by using sacrificial specimens that were mounted to the bridge and exposed to ambient traffic loads and which simulated actual damage-sensitive locations. Different damage types and levels were introduced to the sacrificial specimens to study the sensitivity and applicability. The damage-detection algorithm was able to identify damage, but it also had a high false-positive rate. An evaluation of the sub-components of the damage-detection methodology and methods was completed for the purpose of improving the approach. Several of the underlying assumptions within the algorithm were being violated, which was the source of the false-positives. Furthermore, the lack of an automatic evaluation process was thought to potentially be an impediment to widespread use. Recommendations for the improvement of the methodology were developed and preliminarily evaluated. These recommendations are believed to improve the efficacy of the damage-detection approach.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: LDL cholesterol has a causal role in the development of cardiovascular disease. Improved understanding of the biological mechanisms that underlie the metabolism and regulation of LDL cholesterol might help to identify novel therapeutic targets. We therefore did a genome-wide association study of LDL-cholesterol concentrations. METHODS: We used genome-wide association data from up to 11,685 participants with measures of circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations across five studies, including data for 293 461 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with a minor allele frequency of 5% or more that passed our quality control criteria. We also used data from a second genome-wide array in up to 4337 participants from three of these five studies, with data for 290,140 SNPs. We did replication studies in two independent populations consisting of up to 4979 participants. Statistical approaches, including meta-analysis and linkage disequilibrium plots, were used to refine association signals; we analysed pooled data from all seven populations to determine the effect of each SNP on variations in circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations. FINDINGS: In our initial scan, we found two SNPs (rs599839 [p=1.7x10(-15)] and rs4970834 [p=3.0x10(-11)]) that showed genome-wide statistical association with LDL cholesterol at chromosomal locus 1p13.3. The second genome screen found a third statistically associated SNP at the same locus (rs646776 [p=4.3x10(-9)]). Meta-analysis of data from all studies showed an association of SNPs rs599839 (combined p=1.2x10(-33)) and rs646776 (p=4.8x10(-20)) with LDL-cholesterol concentrations. SNPs rs599839 and rs646776 both explained around 1% of the variation in circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations and were associated with about 15% of an SD change in LDL cholesterol per allele, assuming an SD of 1 mmol/L. INTERPRETATION: We found evidence for a novel locus for LDL cholesterol on chromosome 1p13.3. These results potentially provide insight into the biological mechanisms that underlie the regulation of LDL cholesterol and might help in the discovery of novel therapeutic targets for cardiovascular disease.
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Majolica pottery is one of the most characteristic tableware produced during the Medieval and Renaissance periods. Majolica technology was introduced to the Iberian Peninsula by Islamic artisans during Medieval times, and its production and popularity rapidly spread throughout Spain and eventually to other locations in Europe and the Americas. The prestige and importance of Spanish majolica was very high. Consequently, this ware was imported profusely to the Americas during the Spanish Colonial period. Nowadays, Majolica pottery serves as an important horizon marker at Spanish colonial sites. A preliminary study of Spanish-produced majolica was conducted on a set of 246 samples from the 12 primary majolica production centers on the Iberian Peninsula. The samples were analyzed by neutron activation analysis (NAA), and the resulting data were interpreted using an array of multivariate statistical procedures. Our results show a clear discrimination between different production centers. In some cases, our data allow one to distinguish amongst shards coming from the same production location suggesting different workshops or group of workshops were responsible for production of this pre-industrial pottery.