New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

A Comparison of Two Methods for Enhancing the Recovery of Seagrasses into Propellor Scars: Mechanical Injection of a Nutrient and Growth Hormone Solution vs. Defecation by Roosting Seabirds: Final Report.

Based on the recovery rates for Thalassia testudinum measured in this study for scars of these excavation depths and assuming a linear recovery horizon, we estimate that it would take ~ 6.9 years (95% CI. = 5.4 to 9.6 years) for T. testudinum to return to the same density as recorded for the adjacent undisturbed population. The application of water soluble fertilizers and plant growth hormones by mechanical injection into the sediments adjacent to ten propellor scars at Lignumvitae State Botanical Site did not significantly increase the recovery rate of Thalassia testudinum or Halodule wrightii. An alternative method of fertilization and restoration of propellor scars was also tested by a using a method of “compressed succession” where Halodule wrightii is substituted for T. testudinum in the initial stages of restoration. Bird roosting stakes were placed among H.wrightii bare root plantings in prop scars to facilitate the defecation of nitrogen and phosphorus enriched feces. In contrast to the fertilizer injection method, the bird stakes produced extremely high recovery rates of transplanted H. wrightii. We conclude that use of a fertilizer/hormone injection machine in the manner described here is not a feasible means of enhancing T. testudinum recovery in propellor scars on soft bottom carbonate sediments. Existing techniques such as the bird stake approach provide a reliable, and inexpensive alternative method that should be considered for application to restoration of seagrasses in these environments. Document contains 40 pages)

Primary production, chlorophyll, and zooplankton volumes in the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Between 1 October and 17 December 1955 investigations of the physical, chemical and biological oceanography of the Eastern Pacific Ocean in a region bounded approximately by 30° N. latitude, 9° S. latitude, 120° W. longitude and the mainland coast were conducted from the vessels Horizon and Spencer F. Baird of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography of the University of California. These were part of a cooperative operation, designated for convenience by the code name "Eastropic," in which a vessel of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service worked, during this same period, further west and a vessel of the Peruvian Navy worked further south, offshore from Peru. A vessel of the California State Fisheries Laboratory also conducted certain sub-surface tuna fishing operations and other studies in the same general region as the Scripps vessels. In addition to carrying out a number of special studies related to particular oceanographic features, the Scripps vessels occupied a considerable number of hydrographic stations. The locations of these stations, at each of which were made net-hauls for zooplankton, are shown in Figure 4 and Tables 2 and 3. At some of the hydrographic stations, and in Some places between stations, there were made from the Spencer F. Baird measurements of chlorophyll "a" and of primary production (by the C14 technique), both in situ and in a shipboard incubator. The purpose of this paper is to report on the results of these biological observations. SPANISH: Entre el 1° de octubre y el 17 de diciembre de 1955, a bordo de los barcos Horizon y Spencer F. Baird) de la Institución Scripps de Oceanografía de la Universidad de California, se hicieron investigaciones sobre la oceanografía física, química y biológica del Océano Pacífico Oriental, en una región limitada aproximadamente por los 30° N. de latitud, 9° S. de latitud, 120° O. de longitud y la costa continental. Estas investigaciones fueron parte de una operación que se realizó cooperativamente y a la que se convino darle el nombre codificado de "Eastropic". En ella, durante el mismo período, una embarcación del Servicio de Pesca y Vida Silvestre de los Estados Unidos (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service) trabajó más hacia el oeste, y un barco de la armada peruana más hacia el sur, frente a la costa del Perú. También colaboró una nave del Laboratorio de Pesquerías del Estado de California (California State Fisheries Laboratory), realizando algunas operaciones de pesca de atún en aguas subsuperficiales, y otros estudios en la misma región general que recorrieron las embarcaciones de Scripps. Además de efectuar estudios especiales relacionados con las caracteristicas oceanográficas particulares de la región, las naves de Scripps establecieron un buen número de estaciones hidrográficas. La localización de estas estaciones se indica en la Figura 4 y en las Tablas 2 y 3; en cada una de ellas se hicieron rastreos con redes planctónicas para recoger muestras de zooplancton. En algunas de las estaciones hidrográficas, así como en algunos lugares entre estaciones, en el Spencer F. Baird se hicieron mediciones de la clorofila "a" y de la producción primaria (mediante la técnica del C14), tanto in situ como en una incubadora instalada a bordo. El propósito del presente trabajo es dar a conocer los resultados de estas observaciones biológicas. (PDF contains 44 pages.)

An oceanographic atlas of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, based on data from EASTROPIC Expedition, October-December 1955.

ENGLISH: EASTROPIC Expedition was a cooperative oceanographic study of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean conducted during the period 2 October through 16 December 1955. The five participating agencies and the ships they operated were: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Spencer F. Baird and Horizon; Pacific Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (POFI) of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, now Honolulu Biological Laboratory (HBL) of the U. S. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries, Hugh M. Smith; California Department of Fish and Game, N. B. Scofield; the Peruvian Navy, Bondu; and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission which operated no vessels but supplied equipment and personnel. In addition to these planned participations in EASTROPIC Expedition, valuable information was provided by CCOFI Cruise 5512 of the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, conducted during the period 29 November -16 December 1955 with the two vessels Stranger and Black Douglas. While the observational programs of most of the agencies involved, in part, special hydrographic-biological studies of known features and processes in the region (see reports listed under Data Sources) the deployment of ships and therefore of observations was sufficient that EASTROPIC Expedition could be considered a survey of the eastern tropical Pacific. This report is concerned with that aspect of the Expedition and is a presentation in atlas form of most of the hydrographic data collected. For reasons given below, emphasis has been placed on the upper 300 m of the water column. SPANISH: La Expedición EASTROPIC es un estudio oceanográfico cooperativo del Océano Pacífico Oriental Tropical llevado a cabo durante el período del 2 de octubre al 16 de dícíembre de 1955. Las cinco agencias participantes y los barcos operados por ellas son los siguientes: Scrípps Instítutíon of Oceanography (SIO) , Spencer F. Baird y Horizon; Pacific Oceanic Fisheries Investigatíons (PO'FI) del U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, ahora Honolulu Biological Laboratory (BHL) del U. S. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries, Hugh M. Smith; California Department of Fish and Game, N. B. Scofield; la Marina Peruana, Bondu; y la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical que no dirigió ningún barco pero proporcionó equipo y personal. Además de estas participaciones planeadas en la Expedición EASTROPIC, fué suministrada información de valor por el Crucero CCOFI 5512 del California Cooperative Fisheries Investigatíons, llevado a cabo durante el período del 29 de noviembre al 16 de diciembre de 1955 con los barcos Stranger y Black Douglas. Aunque los programas de observación de la mayoría de las agencias, comprendieron en parte estudios especiales hidrográficos y biológicos de las características y de los procesos conocidos de la región (véase los informes indicados bajo Fuente de Datos), el despliegue de los barcos, y por lo tanto, de las observaciones, fué suficiente para que la Expedición EASTROPIC pudiera ser considerada como una encuesta del Pacífico Oriental Tropical. Este informe se refiere a este aspecto de la Expedición y es una presentación, en forma de un atlas, de la mayoría de los datos hidrográficos recolectados. Por las razones que se dan a continuación, se le dió énfasis a los 300 m., superiores de la columna de agua. (PDF contains 136 pages.)

Aquaculture Asia, Vol.14, No.3, pp.1-44, July-September 2009

Sustainable aquaculture Contrasting community management and revenue sharing practices of culture-based fisheries in Lao PDR Saphakdy, B., Phomsouvanh, A., Davy, B., Nguyen, T.T.T. and De Silva, S.S.; Floodplain aquaculture in Begumgonj: New horizon for rural livelihoods in Bangladesh Hossain, M. S.; Promoting small-scale inland aquaculture in Papua New Guinea Edwards, P.; Group approach to shrimp farming: The key to sustainability Kumaran, M.; Research and farming techniques Native catfish culture - a technology package for fish farmers Haniffa, M. A.; An assessment on the influence of salinity in the growth of black clam (Villorita cyprinoides) in cages in Cochin estuary with a special emphasis on the impact of Thennermukkom Salinity Barrier Arun, A. U.; Aquatic animal health EUS in Asia and Africa: Stimulus for regional initiatives!!! Mohan, C.V. Marine Finfish Aquaculture Network Offshore opportunities for artisanal aquaculture Stock, C.; Grouper aquaculture in Brazil Sanches, E.G. and Von Seckendorff, R.W. NACA Newsletter

Landa-garapen politika eta ingurumenarekiko harremana Euskal Autonomia Erkidegoan (1992-2008)

[EUS] Landa-garapeneko politikek, eremu horietako ohiko jardueren sustapena eta berregituratze sozioekonomikoa bultzatzeaz gain, lurralde-antolaketa zein ingurumen-esparru gero eta garrantzitsuagoak barneratu dituzte beren proposamenetan. Artikulu honek horixe aztertzen du, zein izan den landa-garapen politikaren ingurumentze prozesua Euskal Autonomia Erkidegoan, alegia. Basogintza eta nekazaritza-ingurumen neurriez gain, prozesu honetan arreta berezia merezi du Natura Eremu Babestuen politikak, zeina neurri handian landa-garapenekoarekin uztartu egiten den funtzionalki zein kronologikoki.

Coastal erosion as a natural resource management problem: An economic perspective

Unremitting waves and occasional storms bring dynamic forces to bear on the coast. Sediment flux results in various patterns of erosion and accretion, with an overwhelming majority (80 to 90 percent) of coastline in the eastern U.S. exhibiting net erosion in recent decades. Climate change threatens to increase the intensity of storms and raise sea level 18 to 59 centimeters over the next century. Following a lengthy tradition of economic models for natural resource management, this paper provides a dynamic optimization model for managing coastal erosion and explores the types of data necessary to employ the model for normative policy analysis. The model conceptualizes benefits of beach and dune sediments as service flows accruing to nearby residential property owners, local businesses, recreational beach users, and perhaps others. Benefits can also include improvements in habitat for beach- and dune-dependent plant and animal species. The costs of maintaining beach sediment in the presence of coastal erosion include expenditures on dredging, pumping, and placing sand on the beach to maintain width and height. Other costs can include negative impacts on the nearshore environment. Employing these constructs, an optimal control model is specified that provides a framework for identifying the conditions under which beach replenishment enhances economic welfare and an optimal schedule for replenishment can be derived under a constant sea level and erosion rate (short term) as well as an increasing sea level and erosion rate (long term). Under some simplifying assumptions, the conceptual framework can examine the time horizon of management responses under sea level rise, identifying the timing of shift to passive management (shoreline retreat) and exploring factors that influence this potential shift. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Black holes in the early universe, in compact binaries, and as energy sources inside solar-type stars

This thesis consists of three separate studies of roles that black holes might play in our universe.

In the first part we formulate a statistical method for inferring the cosmological parameters of our universe from LIGO/VIRGO measurements of the gravitational waves produced by coalescing black-hole/neutron-star binaries. This method is based on the cosmological distance-redshift relation, with "luminosity distances" determined directly, and redshifts indirectly, from the gravitational waveforms. Using the current estimates of binary coalescence rates and projected "advanced" LIGO noise spectra, we conclude that by our method the Hubble constant should be measurable to within an error of a few percent. The errors for the mean density of the universe and the cosmological constant will depend strongly on the size of the universe, varying from about 10% for a "small" universe up to and beyond 100% for a "large" universe. We further study the effects of random gravitational lensing and find that it may strongly impair the determination of the cosmological constant.

In the second part of this thesis we disprove a conjecture that black holes cannot form in an early, inflationary era of our universe, because of a quantum-field-theory induced instability of the black-hole horizon. This instability was supposed to arise from the difference in temperatures of any black-hole horizon and the inflationary cosmological horizon; it was thought that this temperature difference would make every quantum state that is regular at the cosmological horizon be singular at the black-hole horizon. We disprove this conjecture by explicitly constructing a quantum vacuum state that is everywhere regular for a massless scalar field. We further show that this quantum state has all the nice thermal properties that one has come to expect of "good" vacuum states, both at the black-hole horizon and at the cosmological horizon.

In the third part of the thesis we study the evolution and implications of a hypothetical primordial black hole that might have found its way into the center of the Sun or any other solar-type star. As a foundation for our analysis, we generalize the mixing-length theory of convection to an optically thick, spherically symmetric accretion flow (and find in passing that the radial stretching of the inflowing fluid elements leads to a modification of the standard Schwarzschild criterion for convection). When the accretion is that of solar matter onto the primordial hole, the rotation of the Sun causes centrifugal hangup of the inflow near the hole, resulting in an "accretion torus" which produces an enhanced outflow of heat. We find, however, that the turbulent viscosity, which accompanies the convective transport of this heat, extracts angular momentum from the inflowing gas, thereby buffering the torus into a lower luminosity than one might have expected. As a result, the solar surface will not be influenced noticeably by the torus's luminosity until at most three days before the Sun is finally devoured by the black hole. As a simple consequence, accretion onto a black hole inside the Sun cannot be an answer to the solar neutrino puzzle.

Topics in black hole perturbation theory and the visualization of curved spacetime

This thesis presents recent research into analytic topics in the classical theory of General Relativity. It is a thesis in two parts. The first part features investigations into the spectrum of perturbed, rotating black holes. These include the study of near horizon perturbations, leading to a new generic frequency mode for black hole ringdown; an treatment of high frequency waves using WKB methods for Kerr black holes; and the discovery of a bifurcation of the quasinormal mode spectrum of rapidly rotating black holes. These results represent new discoveries in the field of black hole perturbation theory, and rely on additional approximations to the linearized field equations around the background black hole. The second part of this thesis presents a recently developed method for the visualization of curved spacetimes, using field lines called the tendex and vortex lines of the spacetime. The works presented here both introduce these visualization techniques, and explore them in simple situations. These include the visualization of asymptotic gravitational radiation; weak gravity situations with and without radiation; stationary black hole spacetimes; and some preliminary study into numerically simulated black hole mergers. The second part of thesis culminates in the investigation of perturbed black holes using these field line methods, which have uncovered new insights into the dynamics of curved spacetime around black holes.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.