853 resultados para short-term load forecasting
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This work presents a procedure for electric load forecasting based on adaptive multilayer feedforward neural networks trained by the Backpropagation algorithm. The neural network architecture is formulated by two parameters, the scaling and translation of the postsynaptic functions at each node, and the use of the gradient-descendent method for the adjustment in an iterative way. Besides, the neural network also uses an adaptive process based on fuzzy logic to adjust the network training rate. This methodology provides an efficient modification of the neural network that results in faster convergence and more precise results, in comparison to the conventional formulation Backpropagation algorithm. The adapting of the training rate is effectuated using the information of the global error and global error variation. After finishing the training, the neural network is capable to forecast the electric load of 24 hours ahead. To illustrate the proposed methodology it is used data from a Brazilian Electric Company. © 2003 IEEE.
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In this paper a method for solving the Short Term Transmission Network Expansion Planning (STTNEP) problem is presented. The STTNEP is a very complex mixed integer nonlinear programming problem that presents a combinatorial explosion in the search space. In this work we present a constructive heuristic algorithm to find a solution of the STTNEP of excellent quality. In each step of the algorithm a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit (transmission line or transformer) to the system. This sensitivity index is obtained solving the STTNEP problem considering as a continuous variable the number of circuits to be added (relaxed problem). The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through an interior points method that uses a combination of the multiple predictor corrector and multiple centrality corrections methods, both belonging to the family of higher order interior points method (HOIPM). Tests were carried out using a modified Carver system and the results presented show the good performance of both the constructive heuristic algorithm to solve the STTNEP problem and the HOIPM used in each step.
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Increased GLUT2 gene expression in the renal proximal tubule of diabetic rats is an adaptive condition, which may be important in the diabetic nephropathy development. We investigated the effects of insulin treatment upon the renal GLUT2 overexpression of diabetic rats. Acute treatment, surprisingly, induced a rapid further increase in GLUT2 mRNA content. Twelve hours after insulin injection, GLUT2 mRNA was twice the value of saline-injected rats (P < 0.001), when GLUT2 protein remained unchanged. In response to short-term treatment, both GLUT2 mRNA and protein were increased in 1-day treated rats (P < 0.05 versus saline-injected), decreasing after that, and reaching, within 6 days, values close to those of non-diabetic rats. Concluding, insulin treatment induced: initially, an additional upregulation of GLUT2 gene expression, involving posttranscriptional modulation; thereafter, downregulation of GLUT2 expression, which returns to non-diabetic levels. The former may be related to increased insulin concentration, the latter may be due to glycemic control. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This prospective clinical investigation evaluates the dentoalveolar and skeletal cephalometric changes produced by the Herbst appliance during treatment of mixed dentition patients with Class II division 1 malocclusion. Thirty individuals (15 male and 15 female individuals; initial mean age nine years 10 months) were treated with the Herbst appliance for a period of 12 months. For comparison, the records of 30 untreated Class II children (15 boys, 15 girls; initial mean age nine years eight months) were followed without treatment for a period of 12 months. The results indicated that the treatment effects produced in the mixed dentition patients were primarily dentoalveolar in nature. The mandibular incisors were tipped labially, and the maxillary incisors were retruded; a significant increase in mandibular posterior dentoalveolar height occurred, and there was a restriction in the vertical development of the maxillary molars. There was no difference in the forward growth of the maxilla between the two groups. In comparison with the controls, however, the Herbst treatment produced a modest but statistically significant increase in total mandibular length. This increase in total mandibular length, however, was less than that observed in adolescent Herbst patients in other studies. © 2005 by The EH Angle Education and Research Foundation, Inc.
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In this paper, a method for solving the short term transmission network expansion planning problem is presented. This is a very complex mixed integer nonlinear programming problem that presents a combinatorial explosion in the search space. In order to And a solution of excellent quality for this problem, a constructive heuristic algorithm is presented in this paper. In each step of the algorithm, a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit (transmission line or transformer) or a capacitor bank (fixed or variable) to the system. This sensitivity index is obtained solving the problem considering the numbers of circuits and capacitors banks to be added (relaxed problem), as continuous variables. The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through a higher order interior point method. The paper shows results of several tests that were performed using three well-known electric energy systems in order to show the possibility and the advantages of using the AC model. ©2007 IEEE.
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Includes bibliography
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In this paper, the short term transmission network expansion planning (STTNEP) is solved through a specialized genetic algorithm (SGA). A complete AC model of the transmission network is used, which permits the formulation of an integrated power system transmission network expansion planning problem (real and reactive power planning). The characteristics of the proposed SGA to solve the STTNEP problem are detailed and an interior point method is employed to solve nonlinear programming problems during the solution steps of the SGA. Results of tests carried out with two electrical energy systems show the capabilities of the SGA and also the viability of using the AC model to solve the STTNEP problem. © 2009 IEEE.
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An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.
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A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.
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Fossil fuels such as diesel are being gradually replaced by biodiesel, a renewable energy source, cheaper and less polluting. However, little is known about the toxic effects of this new energy source on aquatic organisms. Thus, we evaluated biochemical biomarkers related to oxidative stress in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) after two and seven exposure days to diesel and pure biodiesel (B100) and blends B5 and B20 at concentrations of 0.01 and 0.1mLL -1. The hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity was highly induced in all groups, except for those animals exposed to B100. There was an increase in lipid peroxidation in liver and gills in the group exposed to the higher concentration of B5. All treatments caused a significant increase in the levels of 1-hydroxypyrene excreted in the bile after 2 and 7d, except for those fish exposed to B100. The hepatic glutathione-S-transferase increased after 7d in animals exposed to the higher concentration of diesel and in the gill of fish exposed to the higher concentration of pure diesel and B5, but decreased for the two tested concentrations of B100. Superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione peroxidase also presented significant changes according to the treatments for all groups, including B100. Biodiesel B20 in the conditions tested had fewer adverse effects than diesel and B5 for the Nile tilapia, and can be suggested as a less harmful fuel in substitution to diesel. However, even B100 could activate biochemical responses in fish, at the experimental conditions tested, indicating that this fuel can also represent a risk to the aquatic biota. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
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The high active and reactive power level demanded by the distribution systems, the growth of consuming centers, and the long lines of the distribution systems result in voltage variations in the busses compromising the quality of energy supplied. To ensure the energy quality supplied in the distribution system short-term planning, some devices and actions are used to implement an effective control of voltage, reactive power, and power factor of the network. Among these devices and actions are the voltage regulators (VRs) and capacitor banks (CBs), as well as exchanging the conductors sizes of distribution lines. This paper presents a methodology based on the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) for optimized allocation of VRs, CBs, and exchange of conductors in radial distribution systems. The Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm (MGA) is aided by an inference process developed using fuzzy logic, which applies specialized knowledge to achieve the reduction of the search space for the allocation of CBs and VRs.
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The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of stocking ponds using graded and ungraded juveniles and performing drained and combined harvesting on the production of M. amazonicum. A randomized completed-blocks design with 4 treatments (farming strategies) and 3 replicates was used. Treatments were: Upper size-graded juveniles, Lower size-graded juveniles, Ungraded juveniles, all with total drained harvesting, and Combined Harvesting (ungraded juveniles). Twelve earthen ponds were stocked at 40 juveniles.m -2, according to the treatment. After 3.5 months prawns were completely harvested. Lower size-graded prawns showed smaller average weight (3.37 ± 0.25 g) than upper size-graded (4.03 ± 0.40 g) and ungraded ones (3.80 ± 0.16 g). Survival percentage varied from 68 ± 9 to 76 ± 10, productivity was slightly higher than 1,000 kg.ha -1 and apparent feed conversion rate varied from 3.0 ± 0.7 to 3.7 ± 1.3. These parameters did not differ among the farming strategies. The best strategy for short term grow-out M. amazonicum in earthen ponds is stocking ungraded juveniles and performing total harvesting by draining ponds at the end of rearing cycle. Grading juveniles before stocking and selective-harvesting managements are not advantageous because they increase costs and do not improve any production parameter.
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When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.
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Includes bibliography
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This study evaluated the physicochemical changes in Nile tilapia (n = 82, 373.71 ± 61.91 g) refrigerated for up to 92 h and in the frozen fillets. The tilapias were captured with nets, slaughtered by ice and water shock (1:1) in a temperature of approximately 2°C for 30 min, and stored refrigerated at 4°C in polystyrene boxes containing ice. The fish were filleted, and filets were weighed and frozen. The drip loss and protein were determined after 23 days of frozen storage. After 4 h of storage, all fish were in full rigor mortis. The pH of the muscles decreased for up to 45 h of the storage period. The fillets obtained from tilapia stored for more than 72 h lost more weight and protein. Thus, the filleting or processing of tilapia should be done before 72 h of cold storage, since deterioration of the fish starts to occur after this period. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.