Speciation and absolute bioavailability: risk assessment of arsenic-contaminated sites in a residential suburb in Canberra

Watson is a fully developed suburb of some 30 years in Canberra (the capital city of Australia), A plunge dip using arsenical pesticides for tick control was operated there between 1946 and 1960, Chemical investigations revealed that many soil samples obtained from the study area contained levels of arsenic exceeding the current health-based investigation levels of 100 mg kg(-1) set by the National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia, For the speciation study, nine composite samples of surface and sub-surface soils and a composite sample of rocks were selected. ICP-MS analysis showed that arsenic levels in these samples ranged from 32 to 1597 mg kg(-1), Chemical speciation of arsenic showed that the arsenite (trivalent) components were 0.32-56% in the soil and 44.8% in the rock composite samples. Using a rat model, the absolute bioavailability of these contaminated soils relative to As3+ or As5+ ranged from 1.02 to 9.87% and 0.26 to 2.98%, respectively, An attempt was made to develop a suitable leachate test as an index of bioavailability. However, the results indicated that there was no significant correlation between the bioavailability and leachates using neutral pH water or 1 M HCl. Our results indicate that speciation is highly significant for the interpretation of bioavailability and risk assessment data; the bioavailable fractions of arsenic in soils from Watson are small and therefore the health impact upon the environment and humans due to this element is limited.

Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

Methadone maintenance treatment reduces heroin injection in New South Wales prisons

The purpose of this study was to examine whether methadone maintenance treatment reduces injecting risk behaviour land therefore transmission of blood-borne viral infections) among prisoners in New South Wales (NSW), using comparison of retrospective reports of drug use in prisons for people who received standard drug treatment, time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment, The setting for the study was the NSW prison system. One hundred and eighty-five injecting drug users who had been recently released from NSW prisons were recruited in 1993, Self-reported drug use and injecting risk behaviour were compared in inmates who received standard drug treatment (counselling), time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment. HIV status was determined by serology, Intervention comprised high and low dose methadone treatment and counselling. The groups were similar in terms of most basic demographic characteristics but subjects who had been maintained on methadone reported a significantly lower prevalence of heroin injection, syringe sharing and scored lower on an HIV Risk-taking Behavioural Scale than subjects who received standard drug treatment and time-limited methadone treatment, This study suggests that methadone treatment is associated with reduced injecting risk behaviour in prison with adequate (greater than 60 mg) dose and duration in treatment. These treatment conditions are known to increase effectiveness in community-based methadone programmes. Prospective studies are required to evaluate the effectiveness of methadone programmes in the prevention of HIV and other blood-borne viral infections among IDU prisoners.

Refining the risk-benefit equation for thrombolysis: How to identity the low risk patient before administering thrombolytic therapy

In view of the relative risk of intracranial haemorrhage and major bleeding with thrombolytic therapy, it is important ro identify as early as possible the low risk patient who may not have a net clinical benefit from thrombolysis in the setting of acute myocardial infarction. An analysis of 5434 hospital-treated patients with myocardial infarction in the Perth MONICA study showed that age below 60 and absence of previous infarction or diabetes, shock, pulmonary oedema, cardiac arrest and Q-wave or left bundle branch block on the initial ECG identified a large group of patients with a 28 day mortality of only 1%, and one year mortality of only 2%. Identification of baseline risk in this way helps refine the risk-benefit equation for thrombolytic therapy, and may help avoid unnecessary use of thrombolysis in those unlikely to benefit.

Long-term risk of first recurrent stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.

Effects of egg load on the host-selection behaviour of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae)

We examined the effect of age-specific fecundity, mated status, and egg load on host-plant selection, by Helicoverpa armigera under laboratory conditions. The physiological state of a female moth (number of mature eggs produced) greatly influences her host-plant specificity and propensity to oviposit (oviposition motivation). Female moths were less discriminating against cowpea (a low-ranked host) relative to maize (a high-ranked host) as egg load increased. Similarly, increased egg load led to a greater propensity to oviposit on both cowpea and maize. Distribution of oviposition with age of mated females peaked shortly after mating and declined steadily thereafter until death. Most mated females (88%) carried only a single spermatophore, a few females (12%) contained two. The significance of these findings in relation to host-plant selection by H. armigera, and its management, are discussed.

Corrosion behaviour of AZ21, AZ501 and AZ91 in sodium chloride

The corrosion behaviour of AZ21, AZ501 and AZ91 was studied in 1 N NaCl at pH 11 by measuring electrochemical polarization curves, electrochemical AC impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and simultaneously measuring the hydrogen evolution rate and the: magnesium dissolution rate. The corrosion rates increased in the following order: AZ501 < AZ21 < AZ91. The: corrosion behaviour was related to alloy microstructure as revealed by optical and electron microscopy. The beta phase was very stable in the test solution and was an effective cathode. The beta phase served two roles, as a barrier and as a galvanic cathode. If the beta phase is present in the alpha matrix as intergranular precipitates with a small volume fraction, then the beta phase mainly serves as a galvanic cathode, and accelerates the corrosion of the alpha matrix. If the beta Fraction is high, then the beta phase may mainly act as an anodic barrier to inhibit the overall corrosion of the alloy. The composition and compositional distribution in the alpha phase is also crucial to the overall corrosion performance of dual phase alloys. Increasing the aluminum concentration in the alpha phase increases the anodic dissolution rate and also increases the cathodic hydrogen evolution rate. Increasing the zinc concentration in the alpha phase may have the opposite effect. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling dispersal behaviour on a fractal landscape

We use a spatially explicit population model to explore the population consequences of different habitat selection mechanisms on landscapes with fractal variation in habitat quality. We consider dispersal strategies ranging from random walks to perfect habitat selectors for two species of arboreal marsupial, the greater glider (Petauroides volans) and the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus caninus). In this model increasing habitat selection means individuals obtain higher quality territories, but experience increased mortality during dispersal. The net effect is that population sizes are smaller when individuals actively select habitat. We find positive relationships between habitat quality and population size can occur when individuals do not use information about the entire landscape when habitat quality is spatially autocorrelated. We also find that individual behaviour can mitigate the negative effects of spatial variation on population average survival and fecundity. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rheological behaviour of the mushy zone and its effect on the formation of casting defects during solidification

A new conceptual framework has been developed which explains the formation of shear-related casting defects such as porosity, segregation and tears. The theory relates defect formation to the mechanical behaviour of the partially solidified microstructure when shear stresses are developed during the filling of a casting and by the subsequent feeding processes during solidification. Two transition points, the dendrite coherency point and the maximum packing solid fraction, divide the mushy zone into three regions of different mechanical and feeding behaviours. The response of the mush to shear is related to the presence of these zones during solidification of a casting. The resulting defects are rationalized by considering the governing local shear stress and shear rate, local strength and time available for fluid flow. The design of the casting, the casting process used and the alloy composition all influence the relative importance of shearing on defect formation. (C) 1998 Acta Metallurgica Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid reduction in coronary risk for those who quit cigarette smoking

The objective of this study was to determine the rate of the decline in risk of a major coronary event after quitting cigarette smoking. It was a population-based case-control study of men and women aged 35 to 69 years in Newcastle, Australia, and men and women aged 35 to 64 years in Auckland, New Zealand, between 1986 and 1994. Cases were 5,572 people identified in population registers of coronary events and controls were 6,268 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. There was a rapid reduction in risk after quitting cigarette smoking. The risk of suffering a major coronary event for men who were current cigarette smokers was 3.5 (95% CI 3.0-4.0) times higher than the risk for never smokers but this fell to 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-1.9) for men who had quit for 1-3 years. Women who were current cigarette smokers were 4.8 (95% CI 4.0-5.9) times more likely to suffer a major coronary event than never smokers and this fell to 1.6 (95% CI 1.0-2.5) for women who had quit for 1-3 years. Those who had quit cigarette smoking for 4-6 years or more had a similar risk to never smokers. These results reinforce the importance of smoking cessation. The public health message is that the benefit of giving up smoking occurs rapidly.

Risk premiums and benefit measures for generalized-expected-utility theories

Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.

Adolescent reputation enhancement: Differentiating delinquent, nondelinquent, and at-risk youths

This research reports the findings of two studies conducted to measure and then investigate differences between delinquent, nondelinquent, and at-risk youths' orientations towards reputation enhancement. In the first study, concerning item selection and scale development, the factor structure and content validity of a potential Reputation Enhancement Scale were tested by examining the item responses of the scale completed by 230 high-school students. In the second study, the scale was validated by comparing the item responses of 80 delinquent, 90 at-risk, and 90 nondelinquent adolescents with the responses of the original students. The instrument was found to be reliable (alphas from .64 to .92), indicating that the factors are dependable across different samples, and the coefficients of congruence were sufficiently high to investigate meaningful group differences. Three second-order factors (Conforming Reputation, Nonconforming Reputation, Self-presentation) were derived from the 15 first-order factors. Although multivariate analyses revealed significant differences between the reputational orientations of delinquent, at-risk, and nondelinquent participants, the self-presentation second-order factor did not differentiate the three groups.