Accelerating precursory activity within a class of earthquake analogue automata

A statistical fractal automaton model is described which displays two modes of dynamical behaviour. The first mode, termed recurrent criticality, is characterised by quasi-periodic, characteristic events that are preceded by accelerating precursory activity. The second mode is more reminiscent of SOC automata in which large events are not preceded by an acceleration in activity. Extending upon previous studies of statistical fractal automata, a redistribution law is introduced which incorporates two model parameters: a dissipation factor and a stress transfer ratio. Results from a parameter space investigation indicate that a straight line through parameter space marks a transition from recurrent criticality to unpredictable dynamics. Recurrent criticality only occurs for models within one corner of the parameter space. The location of the transition displays a simple dependence upon the fractal correlation dimension of the cell strength distribution. Analysis of stress field evolution indicates that recurrent criticality occurs in models with significant long-range stress correlations. A constant rate of activity is associated with a decorrelated stress field.

Classical and quantum dynamics of a model for atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensates

We study a model for a two-mode atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensate. Starting with a classical analysis we determine the phase space fixed points of the system. It is found that bifurcations of the fixed points naturally separate the coupling parameter space into four regions. The different regions give rise to qualitatively different dynamics. We then show that this classification holds true for the quantum dynamics.

Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Calculation of optical trapping landscapes

Manipulation of micrometer sized particles with optical tweezers can be precisely modeled with electrodynamic theory using Mie's solution for spherical particles or the T-matrix method for more complex objects. We model optical tweezers for a wide range of parameters including size, relative refractive index and objective numerical aperture. We present the resulting landscapes of the trap stiffness and maximum applicable trapping force in the parameter space. These landscapes give a detailed insight into the requirements and possibilities of optical trapping and provide detailed information on trapping of nanometer sized particles or trapping of high index particles like diamond.

Fundamental characteristics of space-charge waves in photorefractive sillenite crystals

We investigate experimentally the fundamental characteristics of space-charge waves excited in a photorefractive crystal of Bi12SiO20. Features such as their transient rise and decay as well as their steady-state frequency response are investigated. Based on this, we find the dependence of the space-charge waves' quality factor on spatial frequency and electric-field biasing. The experimental findings are compared with the linear space-charge wave theory developed previously by Sturman et al. [J. Opt. Sec. Am. B 10, 1919 (1993)].

The impact of architecture on the performance of artificial neural networks

A number of researchers have investigated the impact of network architecture on the performance of artificial neural networks. Particular attention has been paid to the impact on the performance of the multi-layer perceptron of architectural issues, and the use of various strategies to attain an optimal network structure. However, there are still perceived limitations with the multi-layer perceptron and networks that employ a different architecture to the multi-layer perceptron have gained in popularity in recent years, particularly, networks that implement a more localised solution, where the solution in one area of the problem space does not impact, or has a minimal impact, on other areas of the space. In this study, we discuss the major architectural issues affecting the performance of a multi-layer perceptron, before moving on to examine in detail the performance of a new localised network, namely the bumptree. The work presented here examines the impact on the performance of artificial neural networks of employing alternative networks to the long established multi-layer perceptron. In particular, networks that impose a solution where the impact of each parameter in the final network architecture has a localised impact on the problem space being modelled are examined. The alternatives examined are the radial basis function and bumptree neural networks, and the impact of architectural issues on the performance of these networks is examined. Particular attention is paid to the bumptree, with new techniques for both developing the bumptree structure and employing this structure to classify patterns being examined.

Fundamental characteristics of space-charge waves in photorefractive sillenite crystals

We investigate experimentally the fundamental characteristics of space-charge waves excited in a photorefractive crystal of Bi12SiO20. Features such as their transient rise and decay as well as their steady-state frequency response are investigated. Based on this, we find the dependence of the space-charge waves' quality factor on spatial frequency and electric-field biasing. The experimental findings are compared with the linear space-charge wave theory developed previously by Sturman et al. [J. Opt. Sec. Am. B 10, 1919 (1993)].

A survey of urban open space using colour infra-red aerial photographs

There has been a dramatic change in the U.K. government policy regarding the establishment of new towns. The emphasis is now on the redevelopment of existing cities rather than on building new ones. This has created an urgent need to carry out detailed surveys and inventories of many aspects of urban land use in metropolitan areas: this study concentrates on just one aspect - urban open space. In the first stage a comparison was made between 1:10,000 scale black and white and 1:10,000 scale colour infra-red aerial photographs, to compare the type and amount of open space information which could be obtained from these two sources. The advantages of using colour infra-red photography were clearly demonstrated in this comparison. The second stage was the use of colour infra-red photography as the sole source of data to survey and map the urban open space of a sample area in Merseyside Metropolitan County. This sample area comprised eleven 1/4km2 squares, on each of which a 20m x 20m grid cell was placed to record, directly from the photography, 625 sets of data. Each set of data recorded the type and amount of open space, its surface cover, maintenance status and management. The data recorded were fed into a computer and a suite of programs was developed to provide output in both computer map and statistical form, for each of the eleven -1/4km2 -sample areas. The third stage involved a comparison of open space data with socio-economic status. Merseyside County Planning Authority had previously conducted a socio-economic survey of the county, and this information was used to identify ' the socio-economic status of the population in the eleven ilkm2 areas of this project. This comparison revealed many interesting and useful relationships between the provision of urban open space and socio-economic status.

Syndromes of collateral-reported psychopathology for ages 18-59 in 18 societies

The purpose was to advance research and clinical methodology for assessing psychopathology by testing the international generalizability of an 8-syndrome model derived from collateral ratings of adult behavioral, emotional, social, and thought problems. Collateral informants rated 8,582 18-59-year-old residents of 18 societies on the Adult Behavior Checklist (ABCL). Confirmatory factor analyses tested the fit of the 8-syndrome model to ratings from each society. The primary model fit index (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation) showed good model fit for all societies, while secondary indices (Tucker Lewis Index, Comparative Fit Index) showed acceptable to good fit for 17 societies. Factor loadings were robust across societies and items. Of the 5,007 estimated parameters, 4 (0.08%) were outside the admissible parameter space, but 95% confidence intervals included the admissible space, indicating that the 4 deviant parameters could be due to sampling fluctuations. The findings are consistent with previous evidence for the generalizability of the 8-syndrome model in self-ratings from 29 societies, and support the 8-syndrome model for operationalizing phenotypes of adult psychopathology from multi-informant ratings in diverse societies. © 2014 Asociación Española de Psicología Conductual.

Syndromes of self-reported psychopathology for ages 18-59 in 29 societies

This study tested the multi-society generalizability of an eight-syndrome assessment model derived from factor analyses of American adults' self-ratings of 120 behavioral, emotional, and social problems. The Adult Self-Report (ASR; Achenbach and Rescorla 2003) was completed by 17,152 18-59-year-olds in 29 societies. Confirmatory factor analyses tested the fit of self-ratings in each sample to the eight-syndrome model. The primary model fit index (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation) showed good model fit for all samples, while secondary indices showed acceptable to good fit. Only 5 (0.06%) of the 8,598 estimated parameters were outside the admissible parameter space. Confidence intervals indicated that sampling fluctuations could account for the deviant parameters. Results thus supported the tested model in societies differing widely in social, political, and economic systems, languages, ethnicities, religions, and geographical regions. Although other items, societies, and analytic methods might yield different results, the findings indicate that adults in very diverse societies were willing and able to rate themselves on the same standardized set of 120 problem items. Moreover, their self-ratings fit an eight-syndrome model previously derived from self-ratings by American adults. The support for the statistically derived syndrome model is consistent with previous findings for parent, teacher, and self-ratings of 11/2-18-year-olds in many societies. The ASR and its parallel collateral-report instrument, the Adult Behavior Checklist (ABCL), may offer mental health professionals practical tools for the multi-informant assessment of clinical constructs of adult psychopathology that appear to be meaningful across diverse societies. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Variational mean-field algorithm for efficient inference in large systems of stochastic differential equations

This work introduces a Gaussian variational mean-field approximation for inference in dynamical systems which can be modeled by ordinary stochastic differential equations. This new approach allows one to express the variational free energy as a functional of the marginal moments of the approximating Gaussian process. A restriction of the moment equations to piecewise polynomial functions, over time, dramatically reduces the complexity of approximate inference for stochastic differential equation models and makes it comparable to that of discrete time hidden Markov models. The algorithm is demonstrated on state and parameter estimation for nonlinear problems with up to 1000 dimensional state vectors and compares the results empirically with various well-known inference methodologies.

Local Bifurcations in a Nonlinear Model of a Bioreactor

This paper is partially supported by the Bulgarian Science Fund under grant Nr. DO 02– 359/2008.

Integrated optimisation of surface roughness and tool performance when face milling 416 SS

Tool life is an important factor to be considered during the optimisation of a machining process since cutting parameters can be adjusted to optimise tool changing, reducing cost and time of production. Also the performance of a tool is directly linked to the generated surface roughness and this is important in cases where there are strict surface quality requirements. The prediction of tool life and the resulting surface roughness in milling operations has attracted considerable research efforts. The research reported herein is focused on defining the influence of milling cutting parameters such as cutting speed, feed rate and axial depth of cut, on three major tool performance parameters namely, tool life, material removal and surface roughness. The research is seeking to define methods that will allow the selection of optimal parameters for best tool performance when face milling 416 stainless steel bars. For this study the Taguchi method was applied in a special design of an orthogonal array that allows studying the entire parameter space with only a number of experiments representing savings in cost and time of experiments. The findings were that the cutting speed has the most influence on tool life and surface roughness and very limited influence on material removal. By last tool life can be judged either from tool life or volume of material removal.

Real-time intensity domain characterization of fibre lasers using spatio-temporal dynamics

Fibre lasers are light sources that are synonymous with stability. They can give rise to highly coherent continuous-wave radiation, or a stable train of mode locked pulses with well-defined characteristics. However, they can also exhibit an exceedingly diverse range of nonlinear operational regimes spanning a multi-dimensional parameter space. The complex nature of the dynamics poses significant challenges in the theoretical and experimental studies of such systems. Here, we demonstrate how the real-time experimental methodology of spatio-temporal dynamics can be used to unambiguously identify and discern between such highly complex lasing regimes. This two-dimensional representation of laser intensity allows the identification and tracking of individual features embedded in the radiation as they make round-trip circulations inside the cavity. The salient features of this methodology are highlighted by its application to the case of Raman fibre lasers and a partially mode locked ring fibre laser operating in the normal dispersion regime.