Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Essays on economic growth

A fundamental question in development economics is why some economies are rich and others poor. To illustrate the income per capita gap across economies consider that the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the richest 10 percent of economies in the year 2010 was a factor of 40-fold that of the poorest 10 percent of economies. In other words, the average person in a rich economy produces in just over 9 days what the average person in a poor economy produces in an entire year. What are the factors that can explain this difference in standard of living across the world today? With this in view, this dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the economic growth field which we seek a possible responses to this question. The first essay investigates the existence of resource misallocation in the Brazilian manufacturing sector and measures possible distortions in it. Using a similar method of measurement to the one developed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and firm-level data for 1996-2011 we find evidence of misallocation in the manufacturing sector during the observed period. Moreover, our results show that misallocation has been growing since 2005, and it presents a non-smooth dynamic. Significantly, we find that the Brazilian manufacturing sector operates at about 50% of its efficient product. With this, if capital and labor were optimally reallocated between firms and sectors we would obtain an aggregate output growth of approximately 110-180% depending on the mode in which the capital share is measured. We also find that the economic crisis did not have a substantial effect on the total productivity factor or on the sector's misallocation. However, small firms in particular seem to be strongly affected in a global crisis. Furthermore, the effects described would be attenuated if we consider linkages and complementarity effects among sectors. Despite Brazil's well-known high tax burden, there is not evidence that this is the main source of resource misallocation. Moreover, there is a distinct pattern of structural change between the manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries and those in developing countries. Therefore, the second essay demonstrate that this pattern differs because there are some factors that distort the relative prices and also affect the output productivity. For this, we present a multi-sector model of economic growth, where distortions affect the relative prices and the allocation of inputs. This phenomenon imply that change of the production structure or perpetuation of the harmful structures to the growth rate of aggregate output. We also demonstrate that in an environment with majority decision, this distortion can be enhanced and depends on the initial distribution of firms. Furthermore, distortions in relative prices would lead to increases in the degree of misallocation of resources, and that imply that there are distinct patterns of structural changes between economies. Finally, the calibrated results of the framework developed here converge with the structural change observed in the firm-level data of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. Thereafter, using a cross-industry cross-country approach, the third essay investigates the existence of an optimal level of competition to enhance economic growth. With that in mind, we try to show that this optimal level is different from industrialized and under development economies due to the technology frontier distance, the terms of trade, and each economy's idiosyncratic characteristics. Therefore, the difference in competition industry-country level is a channel to explain the output for worker gap between countries. The theoretical and empirical results imply the existence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and growth: starting for an initially low level of competition, higher competition stimulates innovation and output growth; starting from a high initial level of competition, higher competition has a negative effect on innovation and output growth. Given on average industries in industrialized economies present higher competition level. With that if we control for the terms of trade and the industry-country fixed effect, if the industries of the developing economy operated under the same competition levels as of the industrialized ones, there is a potential increase of output of 0.2-1.0% per year. This effect on the output growth rate depends on the competition measurement used.

Partitioning the relative fitness effects of diet and trophic morphology in the threespine stickleback

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Nodule growth and nitrogen fixation of Calopogonium mucunoides L. show low sensitivity to nitrate

It is well established that nitrate is a potent inhibitor of nodulation and nitrogen fixation in legumes. The objective of this study was to demonstrate the relative insensitivity of these processes to nitrate with Calopogonium mucunoides, a tropical South American perennial legume, native to the cerrado (savannah) region. It was found that nodule number was reduced by about half in the presence of high levels of nitrate (15 mM) but nodule growth (total nodule mass per plant) and nitrogen fixation (acetylene reduction activity and xylem sap ureide levels) were not affected. Other sources of N (ammonium and urea) were also without effect at these concentrations. At even higher concentrations (30 mM), nitrate did promote significant inhibition (ca. 50%) of acetylene reduction activity, but no significant reduction in xylem sap ureides was found. The extraordinary insensitivity of nodulation and N2 fixation of C. mucunoides to nitrate suggests that this species should be useful in studies aimed at elucidating the mechanisms of nitrate inhibition of these processes. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Growth parameters and mortality rate of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Jordan & Hubb, 1925) along the Peruvian coast, South Pacific

The growth parameters and the mortality rates of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Chub mackerel) were studied based on monthly data of frequency of fork length classes obtained from commercial landings off the Peruvian coast from 1996 to 1998. The asymptotic body length and growth rate values obtained by the ELEFAN I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) ranged from 40.20 cm to 42.20 cm and from 0.38 to 0.39, respectively. The oscillation amplitude was 0.60; the Winter point values varied from 0.50 to 0.60 and the performance index from 2.79 to 2.84. The total mortality rate of the Chub mackerel obtained by the linearized catch curve oscillated between 1.68 and 3.35. The rate of fishing mortality varied from 1.16 to 2.78 and the exploitation rate from 0.68 to 0.84. The annual rate of natural mortality estimated by the Pauly`s method ranged from 0.52 to 0.53. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the longevity of the Chub mackerel was slightly over seven years.

Influence of temperature, light and nutrients on the growth rates of the macroalga Gracilaria domingensis in synthetic seawater using experimental design

In the present study, the daily relative growth rates (DRGR, in percent per day) of the red macroalga Gracilaria domingensis in synthetic seawater was investigated for the combined influence of five factors, i.e., light (L), temperature (T), nitrate (N), phosphate (P), and molybdate (M), using a statistical design method. The ranges of the experimental cultivation conditions were T, 18-26A degrees C; L, 74-162 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1); N, 40-80 mu mol L-1; P, 8-16 mu mol L-1; and M, 1-5 nmol L-1. The optimal conditions, which resulted in a maximum growth rate of a parts per thousand yen6.4% d(-1) from 7 to 10 days of cultivation, were determined by analysis of variance (ANOVA) multivariate factorial analysis (with a 2(5) full factorial design) to be L, 74 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1); T, 26A degrees C; N, 80 mu mol L-1; P, 8 mu mol L-1; and M, 1 nmol L-1. In additional, these growth rate values are close to the growth rate values in natural medium (von Stosch medium), i.e., 6.5-7.0% d(-1). The results analyzed by the ANOVA indicate that the factors N and T are highly significant linear terms, X (L), (alpha = 0.05). On the other hand, the only significant quadratic term (X (Q)) was that for L. Statistically significant interactions between two different factors were found between T vs. L and N vs. T. Finally, a two-way (linear/quadratic interaction) model provided a quite reasonable correlation between the experimental and predicted DRGR values (R (adjusted) (2) = 0.9540).

Determinants of Acidobacteria activity inferred from the relative abundances of 16S rRNA transcripts in German grassland and forest soils

16S rRNA genes and transcripts of Acidobacteria were investigated in 57 grassland and forest soils of three different geographic regions. Acidobacteria contributed 9-31% of bacterial 16S rRNA genes whereas the relative abundances of the respective transcripts were 4-16%. The specific cellular 16S rRNA content (determined as molar ratio of rRNA:rRNA genes) ranged between 3 and 80, indicating a low in situ growth rate. Correlations with flagellate numbers, vascular plant diversity and soil respiration suggest that biotic interactions are important determinants of Acidobacteria 16S rRNA transcript abundances in soils. While the phylogenetic composition of Acidobacteria differed significantly between grassland and forest soils, high throughput denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism fingerprinting detected 16S rRNA transcripts of most phylotypes in situ. Partial least squares regression suggested that chemical soil conditions such as pH, total nitrogen, C:N ratio, ammonia concentrations and total phosphorus affect the composition of this active fraction of Acidobacteria. Transcript abundance for individual Acidobacteria phylotypes was found to correlate with particular physicochemical (pH, temperature, nitrogen or phosphorus) and, most notably, biological parameters (respiration rates, abundances of ciliates or amoebae, vascular plant diversity), providing culture-independent evidence for a distinct niche specialization of different Acidobacteria even from the same subdivision.

Age, Growth and Population Structure of Jumbo Flying Squid, Dosidicus Gigas, Based on Statolith Microstructure Off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean Waters

The jumbo flying squid, Dosidicus gigas, support an important squid fishery off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean waters. However, we only have limited information about their biology. In this study, age, growth and population structure of D. gigas were studied using statoliths from 333 specimens (386 females and 147 males) randomly sampled in the Chinese squid jigging surveys from 2007 to 2008 off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chile. Mantle lengths (MLs) of the sample ranged from 206 to 702 mm, and their ages were estimated from 150 to 307 days for females and from 127 to 302 days for males. At least two spawning groups were identified, the main spawning peak tended to occur between August and November (austral spring group), and the secondary peak appeared during March to June (austral autumn group). The ML-age relationship was best modelled by a linear function for the austral spring group and a power function for the austral autumn group, and the body weight (BW)-age relationship was best described by an exponential function for both the groups. Instantaneous relative growth rates and absolute growth rates for ML and BW did not differ significantly between the two groups. The growth rate of D. gigas tended to be high at young stages, and then decreased after the sub-adult stage (>180 days old). This study suggests large spatial and temporal variability in key life history parameters of D. gigas, calling for the collection of more data with fine spatial and temporal scales to further improve our understanding of the fishery biology of D. gigas.

(Table 4) Mesozoolpankton abundance and biomass and relative percentage of key zooplankton groups along the Bulgarian coast, Black Sea

Results of studies during Project of an international expedition onboard R/V Vladimir Parshin in September-October 2005 are presented. Intensive development of Bacillariophyceae and Dynophyceae was recorded in coastal waters of Bulgaria, Turkey, and in the Danube River delta during period of investigations. Increase in algae population was accompanied by rising of chlorophyll a concentration up to 2.0-5.5 µg/l. In the deep water region it did not exceed 0.5 µg/l. Phytoplankton growth rate in the surface water layer varied from 0.1 to 1.0 1/day. This parameter and NO2+NO3 concentration, as well as the silicon concentration were correlative, as was described by the Michaelis-Menten equation. Phytoplankton growth was affected by basic nutrients. Zooplankton grazing varied from 0.10 to 0.69 1/day and average values in different regions varied by 1.5 times. Microalgae size range is one of major factors of grazing regulation. Rate of phytoplankton consumption was decreasing with increasing the largest diatom Pseudosolenia calcar-avis impact on total biomass of nano- and microphytoplankton.

Temperature tolerance of western Baltic Sea Fucus vesiculosus - growth, photosynthesis and survival

Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) is the most abundant and hence ecologically most important primary producer, carbon sink and habitat provider in the western Baltic Sea. All F. vesiculosus L. specimens were collected on 23 April 2014 from a depth of 0.2-1 m in the non-tidal Kiel Fjord, western Baltic Sea (54°27'N; 10°12'E), where this species forms dense and almost monospecific stands on stones. After sampling the algal thalli were stored in a refrigerator box with water from the sampling site, transported to Bremerhaven and stored at 10 °C for one day in filtered seawater. Experiments were conducted with vegetative apical tips (6.7±0.5 cm length), the actively growing region of F. vesiculosus, which were randomly selected and cut from 144 different individuals prior to the experiments. These tips were acclimated to laboratory conditions for three days in filtered seawater at 10 °C before the start of the experiment. Furthermore, 30 additional vegetative apices were freeze-dried to document the initial biochemical status of F. vesiculosus in its native habitat. A temperature gradient was installed in a walk-in constant cooling chamber (15 °C) in nine water baths (5, 10, 15, 20, 24, 26, 27, 28 and 29 °C ± 0.1 °C) which were tempered by thermostats (5, 10 and 15 °C: Huber Variostat CC + Pilot ONE, Peter Huber Kältemaschinen GmbH, Offenburg, Germany; 20 and 28 °C: Haake DC3, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., Waltham, USA; 24, 26, 27 and 29 °C: Haake DC10). Every temperature treatment consisted of four 2 L glass beakers (n = 4). In each beaker four F. vesiculosus apices were grown in 2 µm-filtered North Sea water diluted with demineralized water in a ratio of 1:1 and enriched with nutrients after Provasoli (1968; 1/10 enrichment), leading to a salinity of about 15.6 which equaled habitat conditions. The algae were exposed to an irradiance of 130 µmol photons m-2 s-1 ±10 % (Powerstar HGI-TS 150 W, OSRAM GmbH, Bad Homburg, Germany) measured at the top of the beaker under a 16:8 h L:D cycle. The media in the beakers was changed every third or fourth day and aerated with artificial air containing 380 ppm CO2 (gas mixing device; HTK Hamburg GmbH, Hamburg, Germany). Before the experiment, the algae were acclimated to the final temperatures in steps of 5 °C for 2 days each, beginning at 10 °C. After 21 days exposure time, three out of four samples per replicate were freeze-dried for further biochemical analyses, and afterwards the thermostats were turned off to reduce the temperature to 16±0.4 °C for another 10 days permitting growth under post-culture conditions.

Growth rates and biometric measurements of coccolithophores (Coccolithus pelagicus, Coccolithus braarudii, Emiliania huxleyi) during experiments

Coccolithophores, a diverse group of phytoplankton, make important contributions to pelagic calcite production and export, yet the comparative biogeochemical role of species other than the ubiquitous Emiliania huxleyi is poorly understood. Here we examined the relative importance of E. huxleyi and two Coccolithus species (Coccolithus pelagicus and Coccolithus braarudii), in terms of daily calcite production, by culturing E. huxleyi and Coccolithus in parallel, and comparing growth rates and biometrically determined cellular carbon calcite quotas. Biometric measurements of Coccolithus species, and E. huxleyi cell diameters, were performed using polarised light microscopy. Scanning electron microscopy was used for all other biometric measurements of E. huxleyi.

Experimental data on photophysiology and growth rates of Pararotalia calcariformata

The eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot of biological invasions. Numerous species of Indo-pacific origin have colonized the Mediterranean in recent times, including tropical symbiont-bearing foraminifera. Among these is the species Pararotalia calcariformata. Unlike other invasive foraminifera, this species has been discovered only two decades ago and is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean coast. Combining ecological, genetic and physiological observations, we attempt to explain the recent invasion of this species in the Mediterranean Sea. Using morphological and genetic data, we confirm the species attribution to P. calcariformata McCulloch 1977 and identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We document photosynthetic activity of its endosymbionts using Pulse Amplitude Modulated Fluorometry and test the effects of elevated temperatures on growth rates of asexual offspring. The culturing of asexual offspring for 120 days shows a 30-day period of rapid growth followed by a period of slower growth. A subsequent 48-day temperature sensitivity experiment indicates a similar developmental pathway and high growth rate at 28°C, whereas an almost complete inhibition of growth was observed at 20°C and 35°C. This indicates that the offspring of this species may have lower tolerance to cold temperatures than what would be expected for species native to the Mediterranean. We expand this hypothesis by applying a Species Distribution Model (SDM) based on modern occurrences in the Mediterranean using three environmental variables: irradiance, turbidity and yearly minimum temperature. The model reproduces the observed restricted distribution and indicates that the range of the species will drastically expand westwards under future global change scenarios. We conclude that P. calcariformata established a population in the Levant because of the recent warming in the region. In line with observations from other groups of organisms, our results indicate that continued warming of the eastern Mediterranean will facilitate the invasion of more tropical marine taxa into the Mediterranean, disturbing local biodiversity and ecosystem structure.

Ocean acidification alleviates low-temperature effects on growth and photosynthesis of the red alga Neosiphonia harveyi (Rhodophyta)

This study aimed to examine interactive effects between ocean acidification and temperature on the photosynthetic and growth performance of Neosiphonia harveyi. N. harveyi was cultivated at 10 and 17.5 °C at present (~380 µatm), expected future (~800 µatm), and high (~1500 µatm) pCO2. Chlorophyll a fluorescence, net photosynthesis, and growth were measured. The state of the carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM) was examined by pH-drift experiments (with algae cultivated at 10 °C only) using ethoxyzolamide, an inhibitor of external and internal carbonic anhydrases (exCA and intCA, respectively). Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of acetazolamide (an inhibitor of exCA) and Tris (an inhibitor of the acidification of the diffusive boundary layer) on net photosynthesis was measured at both temperatures. Temperature affected photosynthesis (in terms of photosynthetic efficiency, light saturation point, and net photosynthesis) and growth at present pCO2, but these effects decreased with increasing pCO2. The relevance of the CCM decreased at 10 °C. A pCO2 effect on the CCM could only be shown if intCA and exCA were inhibited. The experiments demonstrate for the first time interactions between ocean acidification and temperature on the performance of a non-calcifying macroalga and show that the effects of low temperature on photosynthesis can be alleviated by increasing pCO2. The findings indicate that the carbon acquisition mediated by exCA and acidification of the diffusive boundary layer decrease at low temperatures but are not affected by the cultivation level of pCO2, whereas the activity of intCA is affected by pCO2. Ecologically, the findings suggest that ocean acidification might affect the biogeographical distribution of N. harveyi.