Monte Carlo study of a kinetic lattice model with random diffusion of disorder

We report Monte Carlo results for a nonequilibrium Ising-like model in two and three dimensions. Nearest-neighbor interactions J change sign randomly with time due to competing kinetics. There follows a fast and random, i.e., spin-configuration-independent diffusion of Js, of the kind that takes place in dilute metallic alloys when magnetic ions diffuse. The system exhibits steady states of the ferromagnetic (antiferromagnetic) type when the probability p that J>0 is large (small) enough. No counterpart to the freezing phenomena found in quenched spin glasses occurs. We compare our results with existing mean-field and exact ones, and obtain information about critical behavior.

Relationship between biomass and percentage cover in understorey vegetation of boreal coniferous forests

[Abstract]

A random linear functional approach to efficiency bounds

This paper suggests a method for obtaining efficiency bounds in models containing either only infinite-dimensional parameters or both finite- and infinite-dimensional parameters (semiparametric models). The method is based on a theory of random linear functionals applied to the gradient of the log-likelihood functional and is illustrated by computing the lower bound for Cox's regression model

Canopy stratification in peatland forests in Finland

Abstract

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Self-avoiding random walks and Olbers' paradox

In this paper, we prove that a self-avoiding walk of infinite length provides a structure that would resolve Olbers' paradox. That is, if the stars of a universe were distributed like the vertices of an infinite random walk with each segment length of about a parsec, then the night sky could be as dark as actually observed on the Earth. Self-avoiding random walk structure can therefore resolve the Olbers' paradox even in a static universe.

Empirical models for predicting the production of wild mushrooms in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Central Pyrenees

Mushroom picking has become a widespread autumn recreational activity in the Central Pyrenees and other regions of Spain. Predictive models that relate mushroom production or fungal species richness with forest stand and site characteristics are not available. This study used mushroom production data from 24 Scots pine plots over 3 years to develop a predictive model that could facilitate forest management decisions when comparing silvicultural options in terms of mushroom production. Mixed modelling was used to model the dependence of mushroom production on stand and site factors. The results showed that productions were greatest when stand basal area was approximately 20 m2 ha-1. Increasing elevation and northern aspect increased total mushroom production as well as the production of edible and marketed mushrooms. Increasing slope decreased productions. Marketed Lactarius spp., the most important group collected in the region, showed similar relationships. The annual variation in mushroom production correlated with autumn rainfall. Mushroom species richness was highest when the total production was highest.

Scaling behavior of random knots.

Using numerical simulations we investigate how overall dimensions of random knots scale with their length. We demonstrate that when closed non-self-avoiding random trajectories are divided into groups consisting of individual knot types, then each such group shows the scaling exponent of approximately 0.588 that is typical for self-avoiding walks. However, when all generated knots are grouped together, their scaling exponent becomes equal to 0.5 (as in non-self-avoiding random walks). We explain here this apparent paradox. We introduce the notion of the equilibrium length of individual types of knots and show its correlation with the length of ideal geometric representations of knots. We also demonstrate that overall dimensions of random knots with a given chain length follow the same order as dimensions of ideal geometric representations of knots.

Forests for Water : Is Lombok PES a non-case ?

Forest management for groundwater protection is a cheap solution for a vital question, which is implemented for decades all over the world. The main challenge is to insure a constant adequate forest management to preserve the service provided. In Lombok Island, the problem is the lack of implementation of the public regulation in the forest area. Therefore payments for environmental services (PES) are used as an alternative in this weak institutional environment. The results of the field research show that, surprisingly, the "famous" Lombok PES case is not a PES at all, even if there are some payments. This research has however happy ends because other "forest for water" PES have been identified in the field. In addition, the legal review identified a way to solve the lack of legal base for PES implementation. Thus, the PES examples that we identified could be spread all over Indonesia without conflicting other regulations (fiscal, local finance, forest, etc.) and circumventing the forest administrations.

Geometric stopping of a random walk and its applications to valuing equity-linked death benefits

We study discrete-time models in which death benefits can depend on a stock price index, the logarithm of which is modeled as a random walk. Examples of such benefit payments include put and call options, barrier options, and lookback options. Because the distribution of the curtate-future-lifetime can be approximated by a linear combination of geometric distributions, it suffices to consider curtate-future-lifetimes with a geometric distribution. In binomial and trinomial tree models, closed-form expressions for the expectations of the discounted benefit payment are obtained for a series of options. They are based on results concerning geometric stopping of a random walk, in particular also on a version of the Wiener-Hopf factorization.

Priming psychic and conjuring abilities of a magic demonstration influences event interpretation and random number generation biases

Magical ideation and belief in the paranormal is considered to represent a trait-like character; people either believe in it or not. Yet, anecdotes indicate that exposure to an anomalous event can turn skeptics into believers. This transformation is likely to be accompanied by altered cognitive functioning such as impaired judgments of event likelihood. Here, we investigated whether the exposure to an anomalous event changes individuals' explicit traditional (religious) and non-traditional (e.g., paranormal) beliefs as well as cognitive biases that have previously been associated with non-traditional beliefs, e.g., repetition avoidance when producing random numbers in a mental dice task. In a classroom, 91 students saw a magic demonstration after their psychology lecture. Before the demonstration, half of the students were told that the performance was done respectively by a conjuror (magician group) or a psychic (psychic group). The instruction influenced participants' explanations of the anomalous event. Participants in the magician, as compared to the psychic group, were more likely to explain the event through conjuring abilities while the reverse was true for psychic abilities. Moreover, these explanations correlated positively with their prior traditional and non-traditional beliefs. Finally, we observed that the psychic group showed more repetition avoidance than the magician group, and this effect remained the same regardless of whether assessed before or after the magic demonstration. We conclude that pre-existing beliefs and contextual suggestions both influence people's interpretations of anomalous events and associated cognitive biases. Beliefs and associated cognitive biases are likely flexible well into adulthood and change with actual life events.

Exit times in non-Markovian drifting continuous-time random-walk processes

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to the corrections ensuing from the non-Markovian nature of the process. We show that when drift and jumps have the same sign the relevant integral equations can be solved in closed form. The case when holding times have the classical Erlang distribution is considered in detail.

Monotonic continuous-time random walks with drift and stochastic reset events

In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which suddenly bring the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonic continuous-time random walks with a constant drift: The process increases between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of the deterministic drift. As a result of all these combined factors interesting properties emerge, like the existence (for any drift strength) of a stationary transition probability density function, or the faculty of the model to reproduce power-law-like behavior. General formulas for two extreme statistics, the survival probability, and the mean exit time, are also derived. To corroborate in an independent way the results of the paper, Monte Carlo methods were used. These numerical estimations are in full agreement with the analytical predictions.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29 PER CENT, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90 PER CENT on Saturdays, 4.29 PER CENT on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45 PER CENT) than for women (0.64 PER CENT) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62 PER CENT, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84 PER CENT, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.