Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people's predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants' favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak's continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler's fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.

Youth-Physical Activity Towards Health: evidence and background to the development of the Y-PATH physical activity intervention for adolescents

Background: Despite known benefits of regular physical activity for health and well-being, many studies suggest that levels of physical activity in young people are low, and decline dramatically during adolescence. The purpose of the current research was to gather data on adolescent youth in order to inform the development of a targeted physical activity intervention. Methods: Cross-sectional data on physical activity levels (using self report and accelerometry), psychological correlates of physical activity, anthropometic characteristics, and the fundamental movement skill proficiency of 256 youth (53% male, 12.40 ± 0.51 years) were collected. A subsample (n = 59) participated in focus group interviews to explore their perceptions of health and identify barriers and motivators to participation in physical activity. Results: Findings indicate that the majority of youth (67%) were not accumulating the minimum 60 minutes of physical activity recommended daily for health, and that 99.5% did not achieve the fundamental movement skill proficiency expected for their age. Body mass index data showed that 25% of youth were classified as overweight or obese. Self-efficacy and physical activity attitude scores were significantly different (p < 0.05) between low, moderate and high active participants. Active and inactive youth reported differences in their perceived understanding of health and their barriers to physical activity participation, with active youth relating nutrition, exercise, energy and sports with the definition of ‘being healthy’, and inactive youth attributing primarily nutritional concepts to ‘being healthy’. Conclusions: Data show a need for targeting low levels of physical activity in youth through addressing poor health related activity knowledge and low fundamental movement skill proficiency. The Y-PATH intervention was developed in accordance with the present study findings; details of the intervention format are presented.

Lake–atmosphere interactions at Alqueva reservoir: a case study in the summer of 2014

The study of lake–atmosphere interactions was the main purpose of a 2014 summer experiment at Alqueva reservoir in Portugal. Near-surface fluxes of momentum, heat and mass [water vapour (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2)] were obtained with the new Campbell Scientific’s IRGASON Integrated Open-Path CO2/H2O Gas Analyser and 3D Sonic Anemometer between 2 June and 2 October. On average, the reservoir was releasing energy in the form of sensible and latent heat flux during the study period. At the end of the 75 d, the total evaporation was estimated as 490.26 mm. A high correlation was found between the latent heat flux and the wind speed (R = 0.97). The temperature gradient between air and water was positive between 12 and 21 UTC, causing a negative sensible heat flux, and negative during the rest of the day, triggering a positive sensible heat flux. The reservoir acted as a sink of atmospheric CO2 with an average rate of −0.026 mg m−2 s−1. However, at a daily scale we found an unexpected uptake between 0 and 9 UTC and almost null flux between 13 and 19 UTC. Potential reasons for this result are further discussed. The net radiation was recorded for the same period and water column heat storage was estimated using water temperature profiles. The energy balance closure for the analysed period was 81%. In-water solar spectral downwelling irradiance profiles were measured with a new device allowing measurements independent of the solar zenith angle, which enabled the computation of the attenuation coefficient of light in the water column. The average attenuation coefficient for the photosynthetically active radiation spectral region varied from 0.849 ± 0.025 m−1 on 30 July to 1.459 ± 0.007 m−1 on 25 September.

Using syntactic and semantic features for classifying mo- dal values in the portuguese language

This paper presents a study made in a field poorly explored in the Portuguese language – modality and its automatic tagging. Our main goal was to find a set of attributes for the creation of automatic tag- gers with improved performance over the bag-of-words (bow) approach. The performance was measured using precision, recall and F1. Because it is a relatively unexplored field, the study covers the creation of the corpus (composed by eleven verbs), the use of a parser to extract syntac- tic and semantic information from the sentences and a machine learning approach to identify modality values. Based on three different sets of attributes – from trigger itself and the trigger’s path (from the parse tree) and context – the system creates a tagger for each verb achiev- ing (in almost every verb) an improvement in F1 when compared to the traditional bow approach.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.