Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Comparison of functionals for metal hexaboride band structure calculations

Density functional calculations of the electronic band structure for superconducting and semi-conducting metal hexaborides are compared using a consistent suite of assumptions and with emphasis on the physical implications of computed models. Spin polarization enhances mathematical accuracy of the functional approximations and adds significant physical meaning to model interpretation. For YB6 and LaB6, differences in alpha and beta projections occur near the Fermi energy. These differences are pronounced for superconducting hexaborides but do not occur for other metal hexaborides.

Mid-Holocene sea-level and coral reef demise : U-Th dating of subfossil corals in Moreton Bay, Australia

It is increasingly apparent that sea-level data (e.g. microfossil transfer functions, dated coral microatolls and direct observations from satellite and tidal gauges) vary temporally and spatially at regional to local scales, thus limiting our ability to model future sea-level rise for many regions. Understanding sealevel response at ‘far-field’ locations at regional scales is fundamental for formulating more relevant sea-level rise susceptibility models within these regions under future global change projections. Fossil corals and reefs in particular are valuable tools for reconstructing past sea levels and possible environmental phase shifts beyond the temporal constraints of instrumental records. This study used abundant surface geochronological data based on in situ subfossil corals and precise elevation surveys to determine previous sea level in Moreton Bay, eastern Australia, a far-field site. A total of 64 U-Th dates show that relative sea level was at least 1.1 m above modern lowest astronomical tide (LAT) from at least ˜6600 cal. yr BP. Furthermore, a rapid synchronous demise in coral reef growth occurred in Moreton Bay ˜5800 cal. yr BP, coinciding with reported reef hiatus periods in other areas around the Indo-Pacific region. Evaluating past reef growth patterns and phases allows for a better interpretation of anthropogenic forcing versus natural environmental/climatic cycles that effect reef formation and demise at all scales and may allow better prediction of reef response to future global change.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

Pitfall (An Opportunistic Cultural Survey)

A pitfall is an unapparent source of trouble or danger; a hidden hazard: Today we all face, or will soon be facing ecological pitfalls of many kinds. ‘Pitfall’ is a continually-evolving artwork built from multiple screens, a tabletop landscape mapped with projections, fibre optics, 3D spatial sound and infrared night imagery. It builds upon ideas, recordings and cross-disciplinary processes developed during my 2012-13 ANAT Synapse Art-Science residency, with the Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC), Australia’s largest private-sector conservation organisation.

The re-introduction project

The Re-introduction Project began with an art-science research residency in 2012, funded through the Australian 'Synapse' art-science residency program. It was developed in partnership with the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Australia's largest private conservation agency and their South-East regional scientist Matt Hayward and conducted through a series of seven high intensity field-trips to AWC’s remote properties in VIC, NSW and SA. These trips coincided with key times at which the AWC’s mobile scientific teams were undertaking intensive scientific activities. The program coincided with specific events that senior scientist collaborator Dr Matt Hayward led in 2012 at Mallee Regions (Yookamurra, Scotia and Buckaringa), Lake Eyre Basin (Kalamurina) and Sydney (North Head). The initial outcome of the project was the work Pitfall (An Opportunistic Survey) - a new media installation created in light, media, object, text and sound presented near the AWC headquarters at Mildura in far NW Victoria. Pitfall built upon ideas and cross disciplinary processes developed during this residency/collaboration with Australian Wildlife Conservancy inspired by working with their ecological scientists during pitfall-trap survey events used to survey small mammals and invertebrates. ‘Pitfall’ was designed in response to a playful survey that I asked the AWC scientists to engage with around ideas of avoiding ecological pitfalls into the future. This continually-evolving artwork was built from multiple screens, a tabletop landscape mapped with projections, fibre optics, 3D spatial sound and infrared night imagery.

India's vocational education capacity to support the anticipated economic growth

The buoyancy that the Indian economy experienced between 2000 and 2010, in spite of the global downturn of 2008, is no longer a reality. Growth projections for 2012-13 have been reassessed to 6.5 per cent. This is still higher than most other developed economies of the world (see Figure 1.1), however the growth rate is slowing. The World Bank in its recent forecasts1 expects India’s growth rates not to extend beyond 7.2 % and 7.4 % in the years 2013-14 and 2014-15, respectively. Similarly, the Planning Commission has scaled down the growth target for the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) from 9% to 8%. Different reports note different rates, but the consistent message is that the projection of India’s economy is on a downward trend...

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

Integrating visual and tactile information in the perirhinal cortex

By virtue of its widespread afferent projections, perirhinal cortex is thought to bind polymodal information into abstract object-level representations. Consistent with this proposal, deficits in cross-modal integration have been reported after perirhinal lesions in nonhuman primates. It is therefore surprising that imaging studies of humans have not observed perirhinal activation during visual-tactile object matching. Critically, however, these studies did not differentiate between congruent and incongruent trials. This is important because successful integration can only occur when polymodal information indicates a single object (congruent) rather than different objects (incongruent). We scanned neurologically intact individuals using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while they matched shapes. We found higher perirhinal activation bilaterally for cross-modal (visual-tactile) than unimodal (visual-visual or tactile-tactile) matching, but only when visual and tactile attributes were congruent. Our results demonstrate that the human perirhinal cortex is involved in cross-modal, visual-tactile, integration and, thus, indicate a functional homology between human and monkey perirhinal cortices.

Melanopsin expressing intrinsically photosensitive Retinal Ganglion cells in retinal disease

Melanopsin containing intrinsically photosensitive Retinal Ganglion Cells (ipRGCs) are a class of photoreceptors with established roles in non-image forming processes. Their contributions to image forming vision may include the estimation of brightness. Animal models have been central for understanding the physiological mechanisms of ipRGC function and there is evidence of conservation of function across species. ipRGCs can be divided into 5 ganglion cell subtypes that show morphological and functional diversity. Research in humans has established that ipRGCs signal environmental irradiance to entrain the central body clock to the solar day for regulating circadian processes and sleep. In addition, ipRGCs mediate the pupil light reflex (PLR), making the PLR a readily accessible behavioural marker of ipRGC activity. Less is known about ipRGC function in retinal and optic nerve disease, with emerging research providing insight into their function in diabetes, retinitis pigmentosa, glaucoma and hereditary optic neuropathy. We briefly review the anatomical distributions, projections and basic physiological mechanisms of ipRGCs, their proposed and known functions in animals and humans with and without eye disease. We introduce a paradigm for differentiating inner and outer retinal inputs to the pupillary control pathway in retinal disease and apply this paradigm to patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). In these cases of patients with AMD, we provide the initial evidence that ipRGC function is altered, and that the dysfunction is more pronounced in advanced disease. Our perspective is that with refined pupillometry paradigms, the pupil light reflex can be extended to AMD assessment as a tool for the measurement of inner and outer retinal dysfunction.

Climate variability, climate change and land degradation

Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.

Paired back

Paired Back (2013) investigated the interpretation of text as a dance score. Specific words were used to trigger movement sequences. The performers, Avril Huddy and Jenny Roche, responded to spoken words with individual movement responses which were captured on video, reviewed and assembled as a duet. The musician Nicholas Ng, playing traditional Chinese instruments was also woven into the dancers’ choreography. This was achieved through choreographing a floor pattern that enabled him to weave through the space and ‘seemingly’ interact with the dancers’ actions. Projections using motion capture were also explored and sequenced with the actions of the dance. Retrospectively, I recognised my ‘intuitive’ use of text which I have mapped from its beginnings during the first rehearsal through to the performance at the Judith Wright Centre and demonstrated in DVD documentation. Consequently traces of this original ‘score’ used during the creative process are visible in final performance outcome. This has enabled me to reflect on the impact of language and instructions within my creative process.

The urgent need for career preview: Student expectations and graduate realities in music and dance

Unlike the work available in many creative disciplines, musicians and dancers have the possibility of full-time, company-based employment; however, participants far outweigh the number of available positions. As a result, many graduates become ‘enforced entrepreneurs’ as they shape their work to meet personal and professional needs. This paper first explores the career projections of 58 music and dance students who were surveyed in their first week of post-secondary study. It then contrasts these findings with the reality of graduate careers as reported by five of that cohort four years later. In contrast with the students’ overwhelming focus on performance roles, the graduate cohort reported a prevalence of portfolio careers incorporating both creative and non-creative roles. The paper characterises the notion of a performing arts ‘career’ as a messy concept fraught with misunderstanding. Implications include the need to heighten students’ career awareness and position intrinsic satisfaction as a valued career concept.

Future perfect

"Future Perfect" is a solo artist exhibition featuring a 9 channel video installation, which is comprised of looped computer animation projections. In the first room, the big one, there are nine projections of looped computer animations. Many of these look like representations of gallery spaces containing sculptures, including rotating interpenetrating discs, bouncing coloured coffins, and jostling cardboard cubes (the cubes are blank, then covered in drawings, then covered in photographic imagery). In one video, a man and a woman walk towards one another but never get together. In the second room, an animated video on a flatscreen suggests an origin story. The subtitles tell how, in Russia, my great-grandfather made a joke about Stalin's child bride that cost him his life. That one isn’t a loop; it has a beginning, middle, and end. Lying on the floor, in front of the video, are two slightly crumpled mural prints of photographs of the ocean. There's also a clear Perspex cloud shape on a wall. Viewers will see themselves reflected in it, as if it were a distant hovering mirage. The first room of the exhibition, where objects are set in perpetual motion, is about departure. The second room registers some sense of arrival. The future perfect implies looking back on something that hasn't happened yet; future and past are conflated and the present is somehow deferred. The future perfect combines anticipation and reflection, and it relates to my interest in combining 3-D animation with other mediums like drawing, painting, and shot video. In my work, the virtual and actual coexist in tension, just like experience and expectation in the future perfect.

Single voxel Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic (1H-MRS) analysis of deep brain structures after traumatic prefrontal brain injury (TBI) in rat

Chronic difficulties arising from mild brain injury (TBI) are difficult to predict because the processes underlying changes after TBI are poorly understood. In mild brain injury the extent of neuropsychiatric and cognitive symptoms correspond poorly to overt tissue loss (Barth 1983; Liu 2010). Cellular, immune and hormonal cascades occurring after injury and continuing during the healing process may impact uninjured brain regions sensitive to the effects of physiological and emotional stress, which receive projections from the injury site. Changes in these most basic properties due to injury or disease have profound implications for virtually every aspect of brain function through disruption of neurotransmitter, neuroendocrine and metabolic systems. In order to screen for changes in transmitter and metabolic activity, in this study we developed Single voxel proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (1H-MRS) for use in both injured and control animals. We first evaluated if 1H-MRS could be used to evaluate in vivo, alterations in brain metabolism and catabolism of the prefrontal cortex, amygdala and ventral hippocampus in both control and injured animals after controlled cortical impact injury to the rat prefrontal cortex. We found that metabolite measurements for Myo-Inositol, Choline, creatine, Glutamate+Glutamine, and N-acetyl-acetate are attainable in deep brain structures in vivo in injured and controls rats. We next seek to evaluate longitudinally, in vivo, alterations in brain metabolism and catabolism of the prefrontal cortex, amygdala and ventral hippocampus during the first month after controlled cortical impact injury to the rat prefrontal cortex. These ongoing studies will provide data on the changes in transmitters and metabolites over time in injured and non-injured subjects. These studies address some of the fundamental questions about how mild brain injury has such diverse effects on overall brain health and function.