996 resultados para predictive density


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AIM: Hyperglycaemia is now a recognized predictive factor of morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). For this reason, we aimed to evaluate the postoperative management of glucose control in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery, and to assess the impact of glucose levels on in-hospital mortality and morbidity. METHODS: This was a retrospective study investigating the association between postoperative blood glucose and outcomes, including death, post-surgical complications, and length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital. RESULTS: A total of 642 consecutive patients were enrolled into the study after cardiovascular surgery (CABG, carotid endarterectomy and bypass in the lower limbs). Patients' mean age was 68+/-10 years, and 74% were male. In-hospital mortality was 5% in diabetic patients vs 2% in non-diabetic patients (OR: 1.66, P=0.076). Having blood glucose levels in the upper quartile range (> or =8.8 mmol/L) on postoperative day 1 was independently associated with death (OR: 10.16, P=0.0002), infectious complications (OR: 1.76, P=0.04) and prolonged ICU stay (OR: 3.10, P<0.0001). Patients presenting with three or more hypoglycaemic episodes (<4.1 mmol/L) had increased rates of mortality (OR: 9.08, P<0.0001) and complications (OR: 8.57, P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Glucose levels greater than 8.8 mmol/L on postoperative day 1 and having three or more hypoglycaemic episodes in the postoperative period were predictive of mortality and morbidity among patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. This suggests that a multidisciplinary approach may be able to achieve better postoperative blood glucose control.

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The quantity of interest for high-energy photon beam therapy recommended by most dosimetric protocols is the absorbed dose to water. Thus, ionization chambers are calibrated in absorbed dose to water, which is the same quantity as what is calculated by most treatment planning systems (TPS). However, when measurements are performed in a low-density medium, the presence of the ionization chamber generates a perturbation at the level of the secondary particle range. Therefore, the measured quantity is close to the absorbed dose to a volume of water equivalent to the chamber volume. This quantity is not equivalent to the dose calculated by a TPS, which is the absorbed dose to an infinitesimally small volume of water. This phenomenon can lead to an overestimation of the absorbed dose measured with an ionization chamber of up to 40% in extreme cases. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate correction factors based on the Monte Carlo simulations. These correction factors are obtained by the ratio of the absorbed dose to water in a low-density medium □D(w,Q,V1)(low) averaged over a scoring volume V₁ for a geometry where V₁ is filled with the low-density medium and the absorbed dose to water □D(w,QV2)(low) averaged over a volume V₂ for a geometry where V₂ is filled with water. In the Monte Carlo simulations, □D(w,QV2)(low) is obtained by replacing the volume of the ionization chamber by an equivalent volume of water, according to the definition of the absorbed dose to water. The method is validated in two different configurations which allowed us to study the behavior of this correction factor as a function of depth in phantom, photon beam energy, phantom density and field size.

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The impact of curative radiotherapy depends mainly on the total dose delivered homogenously in the targeted volume. Nevertheless, the dose delivered to the surrounding healthy tissues may reduce the therapeutic ratio of many radiation treatments. In a same population treated in one center with the same technique, it appears that individual radiosensitivity clearly exists, namely in terms of late side effects that are in principle non-reversible. This review details the different radiobiological approaches that have been developed to better understand the mechanisms of radiation-induced late effects. We also present the possibilities of clinical use of predictive assays in the close future.

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BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

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Purpose: EEG is mandatory in the diagnosis of the epilepsy syndrome. However, its potential as imaging tool is still under estimated. In the present study, we aim to determine the prerequisites of maximal benefit of electric source imaging (ESI) to localize the irritative zone in patients with focal epilepsy. Methods: One hundred fifty patients suffering from focal epilepsy and with minimum 1 year postoperative follow-up were studied prospectively and blinded to the underlying diagnosis. We evaluated the influence of two important factors on sensitivity and specificity of ESI: the number of electrodes (low resolution, LR-ESI: <30 versus high resolution, HR-ESI: 128-256 electrodes), and the use of individual MRI (i-MRI) versus template MRI (t-MRI) as the head model. Findings: ESI had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 87% when HR-ESI with i-MRI was used. Using LR-ESI, sensitivity decreased to 68%, or even 57% when only t-MRI was available. The sensitivity of HR-ESI/i-MRI compared favorably with those of MRI (76%), PET (69%) and ictal/interictal SPECT (64%). Interpretation: This study on a large patient group shows excellent sensitivity and specificity of ESI if 128 EEG channels or more are used for ESI and if the results are coregistered to the patient's individual MRI. Localization precision is as high as or even higher than established brain imagery techniques. HR-ESI appears to be a valuable additional imaging tool, given that larger electrode arrays are easily and rapidly applied with modern EEG equipment and that structural MRI is nearly always available for these patients.

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The use of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) for fracture prediction may be enhanced by considering bone microarchitectural deterioration. Trabecular bone score (TBS) helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group. INTRODUCTION: TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture. Our goal was to assess the ability of TBS to predict incident fracture. METHODS: TBS was assessed in 560 postmenopausal women from the Os des Femmes de Lyon cohort, who had a lumbar spine (LS) DXA scan (QDR 4500A, Hologic) between years 2000 and 2001. During a mean follow-up of 7.8 ± 1.3 years, 94 women sustained 112 fragility fractures. RESULTS: At the time of baseline DXA scan, women with incident fracture were significantly older (70 ± 9 vs. 65 ± 8 years) and had a lower LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (both -0.4SD, p < 0.001) than women without fracture. The magnitude of fracture prediction was similar for LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (odds ratio [95 % confidence interval] = 1.4 [1.2;1.7] and 1.6 [1.2;2.0]). After adjustment for age and prevalent fracture, LS_TBS remained predictive of an increased risk of fracture. Yet, its addition to age, prevalent fracture, and LS_aBMD did not reach the level of significance to improve the fracture prediction. When using the WHO classification, 39 % of fractures occurred in osteoporotic women, 46 % in osteopenic women, and 15 % in women with T-score > -1. Thirty-seven percent of fractures occurred in the lowest quartile of LS_TBS, regardless of BMD. Moreover, 35 % of fractures that occurred in osteopenic women were classified below this LS_TBS threshold. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, LS_aBMD and LS_TBS predicted fractures equally well. In our cohort, the addition of LS_TBS to age and LS_aBMD added only limited information on fracture risk prediction. However, using the lowest quartile of LS_TBS helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group which is important for patient management.

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To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence. Alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43%for treatment adherence and 28%for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score &lt; 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow to identify subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

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Functional Data Analysis (FDA) deals with samples where a whole function is observedfor each individual. A particular case of FDA is when the observed functions are densityfunctions, that are also an example of infinite dimensional compositional data. In thiswork we compare several methods for dimensionality reduction for this particular typeof data: functional principal components analysis (PCA) with or without a previousdata transformation and multidimensional scaling (MDS) for diferent inter-densitiesdistances, one of them taking into account the compositional nature of density functions. The difeerent methods are applied to both artificial and real data (householdsincome distributions)

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Bihar, India has been in the grip of kala-azar for many years. Its rampant and severe spread has made life miserable in most parts of the state. Such conditions require a comprehensive understanding of this affliction. The numbers coming out of the districts prone to the disease in the north and south Ganges have provided us with several startling revelations, as there are striking uniformities on both sides, including similar vegetation, water storage facilities, house construction and little change in risk factors. The northern areas have been regularly sprayed with DDT since 1977, but eradication of the disease appears to be a distant dream. In 2007 alone, there were as many as 37,738 cases in that region. In contrast, the southern districts of Patna and Nalanda have never had the disease in its epidemic form and endemic disease has been present in only some pockets of the two districts. In those cases, two rounds of spraying with DDT had very positive results, with successful control and no new established foci. In addition, an eleven-year longitudinal study of the man hour density and house index for the vector Phlebotomus argentipes demonstrated that they were quite high in Patna and Nalanda and quite low in north Bihar. Given these facts, an attempt has been made to unravel the role of P. argentipes saliva (salivary gland) in the epidemiology of kala-azar. It was determined that patchy DDT spraying should be avoided for effective control of kala-azar.

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In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.

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Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities

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This study analyzes the fluorimetric determination of alanyl- (Ala), glutamyl- (Glu), leucyl-cystinyl- (Cys) and aspartyl-aminopeptidase (AspAp) urinary enzymatic activities as early and predictive biomarkers of renal dysfunction in cisplatin-treated rats. Male Wistar rats (n = 8 each group) received a single subcutaneous injection of either saline or cisplatin 3.5 or 7 mg/kg, and urine samples were taken at 0, 1, 2, 3 and 14 days after treatment. In urine samples we determined Ala, Glu, Cys and AspAp activities, proteinuria, N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG), albumin, and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL). Plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and renal morphological variables were measured at the end of the experiment. CysAp, NAG and albumin were increased 48 hours after treatment in the cisplatin 3.5 mg/kg treated group. At 24 hours, all urinary aminopeptidase activities and albuminuria were significantly increased in the cisplatin 7 mg/kg treated group. Aminopeptidase urinary activities correlated (p<0.011; r(2)>0.259) with plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and/or kidney weight/body weight ratio at the end of the experiment and they could be considered as predictive biomarkers of renal injury severity. ROC-AUC analysis was made to study their sensitivity and specificity to distinguish between treated and untreated rats at day 1. All aminopeptidase activities showed an AUC>0.633. We conclude that Ala, Cys, Glu and AspAp enzymatic activities are early and predictive urinary biomarkers of the renal dysfunction induced by cisplatin. These determinations can be very useful in the prognostic and diagnostic of renal dysfunction in preclinical research and clinical practice.

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A recent trend in digital mammography is computer-aided diagnosis systems, which are computerised tools designed to assist radiologists. Most of these systems are used for the automatic detection of abnormalities. However, recent studies have shown that their sensitivity is significantly decreased as the density of the breast increases. This dependence is method specific. In this paper we propose a new approach to the classification of mammographic images according to their breast parenchymal density. Our classification uses information extracted from segmentation results and is based on the underlying breast tissue texture. Classification performance was based on a large set of digitised mammograms. Evaluation involves different classifiers and uses a leave-one-out methodology. Results demonstrate the feasibility of estimating breast density using image processing and analysis techniques

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CONTEXT: Cirrhosis after viral hepatitis has been identified as a risk factor for osteoporosis in men. However, in postmenopausal women, most studies have evaluated the effect of primary biliary cirrhosis, but little is known about the effect of viral cirrhosis on bone mass [bone mineral density (BMD)] and bone metabolism. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to assess the effect of viral cirrhosis on BMD and bone metabolism in postmenopausal women. DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive study. SETTING AND PATIENTS: We studied 84 postmenopausal female outpatients with viral cirrhosis and 96 healthy postmenopausal women from the general community. BMD was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry at lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN). RESULTS: The percentage with osteoporosis did not significantly differ between patients (LS, 43.1%; FN, 32.2%) and controls (LS, 41.2%; FN, 29.4%), and there was no difference in BMD (z-score) between groups. Serum concentrations of soluble TNF receptors, estradiol, and osteoprotegerin (OPG) were significantly higher in patients vs. controls (P < 0.001, P < 0.05, and P < 0.05, respectively). No significant difference was observed in urinary deoxypyridinoline. Serum OPG levels were positively correlated with soluble TNF receptors (r = 0.35; P < 0.02) and deoxypyridinoline (r = 0.37; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that bone mass and bone resorption rates do not differ between postmenopausal women with viral cirrhosis and healthy postmenopausal controls and suggests that viral cirrhosis does not appear to increase the risk of osteoporosis in these women. High serum estradiol and OPG concentrations may contribute to preventing the bone loss associated with viral cirrhosis in postmenopausal women.