Economics of Wheat in Egypt

Este estudio pretende estimar la eficiencia y la productividad de las principales provincias de la producción de trigo en Egipto. Los datos utilizados en este estudio son datos de panel a nivel de provincias del período 1990-2012, obtenidos del Ministerio de Agricultura y Recuperación Tierras, y de la Agencia Central de Movilización Pública y Estadística, Egipto. Se aplica el enfoque de fronteras estocásticas para medir la eficiencia (función de producción de Cobb-Douglas) y se emplean las especificaciones de Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995). También se utiliza el índice de Malmquist como una aproximación no paramétrica (Análisis de Envolvente de Datos) para descomponer la productividad total de los factores de las principales provincias productoras de trigo en Egipto en cambio técnico y cambio de eficiencia. El coeficiente de tierra es positivo y significativo en los dos especificaciones Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995), lo que implica que aumentar la tierra para este cultivo aumentaría significativamente la producción de trigo. El coeficiente de trabajo es positivo y significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1992), mientras que es positivo y no significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1995). El coeficiente de la maquinaria es negativo y no significativo en las dos especificaciones de Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995). El coeficiente de cambio técnico es positivo y no significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1992), mientras que es positiva y significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1995). Las variables de efectos del modelo de ineficiencia Battese y Coelli (1995) indican que no existe impacto de las diferentes provincias en la producción de trigo en Egipto; la ineficiencia técnica de la producción de trigo tendió a disminuir durante el período de estudio; y no hay ningún impacto de género en la producción de trigo en Egipto. Los niveles de eficiencia técnica varían entre las diferentes provincias para las especificaciones de Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995); el nivel mínimo medio de eficiencia técnica es 91.61% en la provincia de Fayoum, mientras que el nivel máximo medio de la eficiencia técnica es 98.69% en la provincia de Dakahlia. La eficiencia técnica toma un valor medio de 95.37%, lo que implica poco potencial para mejorar la eficiencia de uso de recursos en la producción de trigo. La TFPCH de la producción de trigo en Egipto durante el período 1990-2012 tiene un valor menor que uno y muestra un declive. Esta disminución es debida más al componente de cambio técnico que al componente de cambio de eficiencia. La disminución de TFPCH mejora con el tiempo. La provincia de Menoufia tiene la menor disminución en TFPCH, 6.5%, mientras que dos provincias, Sharkia y Dakahlia, son las que más disminuyen en TFPCH, 13.1%, en cada uno de ellas. Menos disminución en TFPCH ocurre en el período 2009-2010, 0.3%, mientras que más disminución se produce en TFPCH en el período 1990-1991, 38.9%. La disminución de la PTF de la producción de trigo en Egipto se atribuye principalmente a la mala aplicación de la tecnología. ABSTRACT The objectives of this study are to estimate the efficiency and productivity of the main governorates of wheat production in Egypt. The data used in this study is a panel data at the governorates level, it represents the time period 1990-2012 and taken from the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Egypt. We apply the stochastic frontier approach for efficiency measurement (Cobb-Douglas production function) and the specifications of Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995) are employed. Also we use Malmquist TFP index as a non-parametric approach (DEA) to decompose total factor productivity of the main governorates of wheat production in Egypt into technical change and efficiency change. The coefficient of land is positive and significant at Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995) specifications, implying that increasing the wheat area could significantly enhance the production of wheat. The coefficient of labor is positive and significant at Battese and Coelli (1992) specification, while it is positive and insignificant at Battese and Coelli (1995) specification. The coefficient of machinery is negative and insignificant at the specifications of Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995). The technical change coefficient is positive and insignificant at Battese and Coelli (1992) specification, while it is positive and significant at Battese and Coelli (1995) specification. The variables of the inefficiency effect model indicate that there is no impact from the location of the different governorates on wheat production in Egypt, the technical inefficiency of wheat production tended to decrease through the period of study, and there is no impact from the gender on wheat production in Egypt. The levels of technical efficiency vary among the different governorates for the specifications of Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995); the minimum mean level of technical efficiency is 91.61% at Fayoum governorate, while the maximum mean level of technical efficiency is 98.69% at Dakahlia governorate. The technical efficiency takes an average value of 95.37%, this implying that little potential exists to improve resource use efficiency in wheat production. The TFPCH of wheat production in Egypt during the time period 1990-2012 has a value less than one and shows a decline; this decline is due mainly to the technical change component than the efficiency change component. The decline in TFPCH is generally improves over time. Menoufia governorate has the least declining in TFPCH by 6.5%, while two governorates, Sharkia and Dakahlia have the most declining in TFPCH by 13.1% for each of them. The least declining in TFPCH occurred at the period 2009- 2010 by 0.3%, while the most declining in TFPCH occurred at the period 1990-1991 by 38.9%. The declining in TFP of wheat production in Egypt is attributed mainly to poor application of technology.

Approach to the potential production of giant reed in surplus saline lands of Spain

Growing energy crops on marginal land has been promoted as a way of ensuring that biomass production involves an acceptable and sustainable use of land. Saline and saline-prone agricultural lands represent an opportunity for growing energy crops avoiding the displacement of food production and contributing to restoration of degraded land. Giant reed (Arundo donax L.) is a perennial grass that has been proposed as a promising energy crop for lignocellulosic biomass production while its tolerance to salinity has been proved. In this work, the identification of surplus saline lands that could be irrigated with saline waters for growing tolerant-energy crops (giant reed) in the mainland of Spain and the assessment of the agronomically attainable yield in these limiting growing conditions were undertaken. To this purpose, a GIS analysis was conducted using geodatabases related to saline areas, agro-climatic conditions, irrigation water requirements, agricultural land availability, restrictions regarding the range of electrical conductivity tolerated by the crop, competition with agro-food crops and irrigation water provisions. According to the approach developed, the irrigated and saline agricultural area available and suitable for biomass production from giant reed amounted up to 34 412 ha. The agronomically attainable yield in these limiting conditions was estimated at 12.7 – 22.2 t dm ha−1 yr−1 and the potential production of lignocellulosic biomass, 597 338 t dm yr−1. The methodology followed in this study can be applied to other target regions; it allows the identification of this type of marginal lands, where salinity-tolerant plant species could be grown for bioenergy purposes, avoiding competition with agro-food crops, and where soil restoration measurements should be undertaken.

Assessing the accessibility impact of transport policy by a land-use and transport interaction model - The case of Madrid

Accessibility is an essential concept widely used to evaluate the impact of transport and land-use strategies in urban planning and policy making. Accessibility is typically evaluated by using separately a transport model or a land-use model. This paper embeds two accessibility indicators (i.e., potential and adaptive accessibility) in a land use and transport interaction (LUTI) model in order to assess transport policies implementation. The first aim is to define the adaptive accessibility, considering the competition factor at territorial level (e.g. workplaces and workers). The second aim is to identify the optimal implementation scenario of policy measures using potential and adaptive accessibility indicators. The analysis of the results in terms of social welfare and accessibility changes closes the paper. Two transport policy measures are applied in Madrid region: a cordon toll and increase bus frequency. They have been simulated through the MARS model (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator, i.e. LUTI model). An optimisation procedure is performed by MARS for maximizing the value of the objective function in order to find the optimal policy implementation (first best). Both policy measures are evaluated in terms of accessibility. Results show that the introduction of the accessibility indicators (potential and adaptive) influence the optimal value of the toll price and bus frequency level, generating different results in terms of social welfare. Mapping the difference between potential and adaptive accessibility indicator shows that the main changes occur in areas where there is a strong competition among different land-use opportunities.

Hunger and Satiety Mechanisms and Their Potential Exploitation in the Regulation of Food Intake

Acknowledgments Tehmina Amin is the Project Manager and Julian Mercer is Project Coordinator for Full4Health. Both are funded by the Full4Health project (grant agreement no. 266408) under the EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013). Julian Mercer is funded by the Scottish Government, Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division, Food, Land and People programme. He is also a partner in FP7 projects: NeuroFAST (grant agreement no. 245099) and SATIN (grant agreement no. 289800).

The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990-2012

Date of Acceptance: 16/12/2014 Acknowledgements: This work was carried out with generous funding by the Governments of Germany (GCP/GLO/286/GER) and Norway (GCP/GLO/325/NOR) to the ‘Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Emissions and Mitigation Potential from Agriculture’ Project of the FAO Climate, Energy and Tenure Division. P. Smith is a Royal Society Wolfson Merit Award holder, and his input contributes to the University of Aberdeen Environment and Food Security Theme and to Scotland's ClimateXChange. J. House was funded by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship. The FAO Statistics Division maintains the FAOSTAT Emissions database with regular program funds allocated through Strategic Objective 6. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: Yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and maize (Zea mays L.) provide about two-thirds of all energy in human diets, and four major cropping systems in which these cereals are grown represent the foundation of human food supply. Yield per unit time and land has increased markedly during the past 30 years in these systems, a result of intensified crop management involving improved germplasm, greater inputs of fertilizer, production of two or more crops per year on the same piece of land, and irrigation. Meeting future food demand while minimizing expansion of cultivated area primarily will depend on continued intensification of these same four systems. The manner in which further intensification is achieved, however, will differ markedly from the past because the exploitable gap between average farm yields and genetic yield potential is closing. At present, the rate of increase in yield potential is much less than the expected increase in demand. Hence, average farm yields must reach 70–80% of the yield potential ceiling within 30 years in each of these major cereal systems. Achieving consistent production at these high levels without causing environmental damage requires improvements in soil quality and precise management of all production factors in time and space. The scope of the scientific challenge related to these objectives is discussed. It is concluded that major scientific breakthroughs must occur in basic plant physiology, ecophysiology, agroecology, and soil science to achieve the ecological intensification that is needed to meet the expected increase in food demand.

Extraordinarily high spider densities on islands: flow of energy from the marine to terrestrial food webs and the absence of predation.

Some islands in the Gulf of California support very high densities of spiders. Spider density is negatively correlated with island size; many small islands support 50-200 spiders per m3 of cactus. Energy for these spiders comes primarily from the ocean and not from in situ productivity by land plants. We explicitly connect the marine and terrestrial systems to show that insular food webs represent one endpoint of the marine web. We describe two conduits for marine energy entering these islands: shore drift and seabird colonies. Both conduits are related to island area, having a much stronger effect on smaller islands. This asymmetric effect helps to explain the exceptionally high spider densities on small islands. Although productivity sets the maximal potential densities, predation (by scorpions) limits realized spider abundance. Thus, prey availability and predation act in concert to set insular spider abundance.

Successional stage after land abandonment modulates fire severity and post-fire recovery in a Mediterranean mountain landscape

This study analyses the effect of successional stage after farmland terrace abandonment on post-fire plant recovery in a Mediterranean landscape. Specific objectives of the study were to (1) compare fuel characteristics and fire severity in three successional stages after farmland abandonment – dry grassland, dense shrubland and pine stands; (2) analyse the effect of pre-fire successional stage and fire severity on vegetation recovery and (3) analyse the relative vulnerability (i.e. potential for ecosystem shift and soil degradation) to wildfires of the successional stages. We assessed 30 abandoned terraces (15 unburned and 15 burned), with diverse successional stages, on the Xortà Range (south-east Spain). Post-fire recovery was measured 1, 4 and 7 years after fire. The successional stages varied in aboveground biomass, litter amount, vertical structure and continuity of plant cover, and flammability. Dry grassland showed the lowest fire severity, whereas no differences in severity were found between shrubland and pine stands. One year after fire, plant cover was inversely related to fire severity; this relationship attenuated with time after fire. Post-fire recovery of pine stands and shrubland led in both cases to shrublands, contributing to landscape homogenisation. The pine stands showed the largest changes in composition due to fire and the lowest post-fire plant recovery – a sign of high vulnerability to fire.

Productivity and Credit Constraints: Firm-Level Evidence from Propensity Score Matching. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 3, September 2011

Drawing on a unique, farm-level panel dataset with 37,409 observations and employing a matching estimator, this paper analyses how farm access to credit affects farm input allocation and farm efficiency in the Central and Eastern European transition countries. We find that farms are asymmetrically credit constrained with respect to inputs. Farm use of variable inputs and capital investment increases up to 2.3% and 29%, respectively, per €1,000 of additional credit. Our estimates also suggest that farm access to credit increases total factor productivity up to 1.9% per €1,000 of additional credit, indicating that an improvement in access to credit results in an adjustment in the relative input intensities on farms. This finding is further supported by a negative effect of better access to credit on labour, suggesting that these two are substitutes. Interestingly, farms are found not to be credit constrained with respect to land.

Drivers of agricultural capital productivity in selected EU member states. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 30, September 2012

The aim of this Working Paper is to provide an empirical analysis of the marginal return on working capital and fixed capital in agriculture, based on data gathered by the Farm Accountancy Data Network from seven EU member states. Particular emphasis is placed on the detection of credit market imperfections. The key idea is to provide farm group-specific estimates of the shadow price of capital, and to use these to analyse the drivers of on-farm capital use in European agriculture. Based on Cobb Douglas estimates of farm-type specific production functions, we find that working capital is typically used in more than economically optimal quantities and often displays negative marginal returns across countries and farm types. This is less often the case with regard to fixed capital, but it is only in a small set of sectors where access to fixed capital appears severely constrained. These sectors include field crop and mixed farms in Denmark, dairy farms in East Germany, as well as mixed farms in Italy and the UK. The relationship between farm financial indicators and the estimated shadow prices of capital varies considerably across countries and sectors. Among the farms with a high shadow price for fixed capital in Denmark, high debt levels and little owned land tended to induce more intensive capital use, which may reflect the liberal Danish banking system. In East Germany, Italy and the UK, high debt levels made farmers more tightly capital constrained. Hence, in the latter group of countries, more traditional mechanisms of capital allocation based on debt capacity seemed to be at work. As a general conclusion, EU agriculture appears to be characterised by overcapitalisation rather than by credit constraints.

Effects of Economic Factors on Adoption of Robotics and Consequences of Automation for Productivity Growth of Dairy Farms. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 32, December 2012

In the long term, productivity and especially productivity growth are necessary conditions for the survival of a farm. This paper focuses on the technology choice of a dairy farm, i.e. the choice between a conventional and an automatic milking system. Its aim is to reveal the extent to which economic rationality explains investing in new technology. The adoption of robotics is further linked to farm productivity to show how capital-intensive technology has affected the overall productivity of milk production. The empirical analysis applies a probit model and an extended Cobb-Douglas-type production function to a Finnish farm-level dataset for the years 2000–10. The results show that very few economic factors on a dairy farm or in its economic environment can be identified to affect the switch to automatic milking. Existing machinery capital and investment allowances are among the significant factors. The results also indicate that the probability of investing in robotics responds elastically to a change in investment aids: an increase of 1% in aid would generate an increase of 2% in the probability of investing. Despite the presence of non-economic incentives, the switch to robotic milking is proven to promote productivity development on dairy farms. No productivity growth is observed on farms that keep conventional milking systems, whereas farms with robotic milking have a growth rate of 8.1% per year. The mean rate for farms that switch to robotic milking is 7.0% per year. The results show great progress in productivity growth, with the average of the sector at around 2% per year during the past two decades. In conclusion, investments in new technology as well as investment aids to boost investments are needed in low-productivity areas where investments in new technology still have great potential to increase productivity, and thus profitability and competitiveness, in the long run.

Identifying Factor Productivity from Micro-data: The case of EU agriculture. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 34, January 2013

The classical problem of agricultural productivity measurement has regained interest owing to recent price hikes in world food markets. At the same time, there is a new methodological debate on the appropriate identification strategies for addressing endogeneity and collinearity problems in production function estimation. We examine the plausibility of four established and innovative identification strategies for the case of agriculture and test a set of related estimators using farm-level panel datasets from seven EU countries. The newly suggested control function and dynamic panel approaches provide attractive conceptual improvements over the received ‘within’ and duality models. Even so, empirical implementation of the conceptual sophistications built into these estimators does not always live up to expectations. This is particularly true for the dynamic panel estimator, which mostly failed to identify reasonable elasticities for the (quasi-) fixed factors. Less demanding proxy approaches represent an interesting alternative for agricultural applications. In our EU sample, we find very low shadow prices for labour, land and fixed capital across countries. The production elasticity of materials is high, so improving the availability of working capital is the most promising way to increase agricultural productivity.

Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 48, May 2013

This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets. This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work. Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.

Enriching plant diversity in grasslands by large-scale experimental sward disturbance and seed addition along gradients of land-use intensity

Aims The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is among the most active areas of ecological research. Furthermore, enhancing the diversity of degraded ecosystems is a major goal in applied restoration ecology. In grasslands, many species may be locally absent due to dispersal or microsite limitation and may therefore profit from mechanical disturbance of the resident vegetation. We established a seed addition and disturbance experiment across several grassland sites of different land use to test whether plant diversity can be increased in these grasslands. Additionally, the experiment will allow us testing the consequences of increased plant diversity for ecosystem processes and for the diversity of other taxa in real-world ecosystems. Here we present details of the experimental design and report results from the first vegetation survey one year after disturbance and seed addition. Moreover, we tested whether the effects of seed addition and disturbance varied among grassland depending on their land use or pre-disturbance plant diversity. Methods A full-factorial experiment was installed in 73 grasslands in three regions across Germany. Grasslands were under regular agricultural use, but varied in the type and the intensity of management, thereby representing the range of management typical for large parts of Central Europe. The disturbance treatment consisted of disturbing the top 10 cm of the sward using a rotavator or rotary harrow. Seed addition consisted of sowing a high-diversity seed mixture of regional plant species. These species were all regionally present, but often locally absent, depending on the resident vegetation composition and richness of each grassland. Important findings One year after sward disturbance it had significantly increased cover of bare soil, seedling species richness and numbers of seedlings. Seed addition had increased plant species richness, but only in combination with sward disturbance. The increase in species richness, when both seed addition and disturbance was applied, was higher at high land-use intensity and low resident diversity. Thus, we show that at least the early recruitment of many species is possible also at high land-use intensity, indicating the potential to restore and enhance biodiversity of species-poor agricultural grasslands. Our newly established experiment provides a unique platform for broad-scale research on the land-use dependence of future trajectories of vegetation diversity and composition and their effects on ecosystem functioning.

Final report : Air quality analysis of the Southern California Bight in relation to potential impact of offshore oil and gas development /

Mode of access: Internet.