Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of leucaena supplementation level, and provision of urea, on utilisation by sheep of Rhodes grass hay

Tarramba leucaena (Leucaena leucocephala cv. Tarramba) foliage had per kilogram dry matter, 169 g protein and 29.8 g condensed tannins. Its value as a supplement, given either with or without urea, to sheep given a low-quality Callide Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana cv. Callide) hay was studied. Six rumen fistulated sheep (mean +/- s.d. liveweight, 34 +/- 1.4 kg) were used to compare 6 dietary treatments in an incomplete latin square design. Rhodes grass hay was given ad libitum either alone, or with urea 7 g/day (U), or with leucaena 150 g/day (L150), or leucaena with urea (L150U), or leucaena 300 g/day (L300), or leucaena with urea (L300U). Digestible organic matter intake was increased significantly by leucaena supplementation although digestibility of the whole diet did not alter. Rumen fluid ammonia-N was not altered by leucaena supplementation, but was increased by urea. This suggests that Tarramba foliage protein has some resistance to ruminal degradation. Liquid and solids passage rates were not affected by the treatments. Microbial nitrogen supply to the intestine (g/day), and the efficiency of microbial nitrogen synthesis (g/kg organic matter apparently digested in the rumen), were increased by leucaena supplementation (P

Sequestration of carbon by soil

Soil carbon is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The soils of the world contain more carbon than the combined total amounts occurring in vegetation and the atmosphere. Consequently, soils are a major reservoir of carbon and an important sink. Because of the relatively long period of time that carbon spends within the soil and is thereby withheld from the atmosphere, it is often referred to as being sequestered. Increasing the capacity of soils to sequester C provides a partial, medium-term countermeasure to help ameliorate the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere arising from fossil fuel burning and land clearing. Such action will also help to alleviate the environmental impacts arising from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2. The C sequestration potential of any soil depends on its capacity to store resistant plant components in the medium term and to protect and accumulate the humic substances (HS) formed from the transformations or organic materials in the soil environment. The sequestration potential of a soil depends on the vegetation it supports, its mineralogical composition, the depth of the solum, soil drainage, the availability of water and air, and the temperature of the soil environment. The sequestration potential also depends on the chemical characteristics of the soil organic matter and its ability to resist microbial decomposition. When accurate information for these features is incorporated in model systems, the potentials of different soils to sequester C can be reliably predicted. It is encouraging to know that improved soil and crop management systems now allow field yields to be maintained and soil C reserves to be increased, even for soils with depleted levels of soil C. Estimates of the soil C sequestration potential are discussed. Inevitably HS are the major components of the additionally sequestered C. It will be important to know more about the compositions and associations of these substances in the soil if we are able to predict reasonably accurately the ability of any soil type to sequester C in different cropping and soil management systems.

Electric-field-induced Mott insulating states in organic field-effect transistors

We consider the possibility that the electrons injected into organic field-effect transistors are strongly correlated. A single layer of acenes can be modeled by a Hubbard Hamiltonian similar to that used for the κ-(BEDT-TTF)2X family of organic superconductors. The injected electrons do not necessarily undergo a transition to a Mott insulator state as they would in bulk crystals when the system is half-filled. We calculate the fillings needed for obtaining insulating states in the framework of the slave-boson theory and in the limit of large Hubbard repulsion U. We also suggest that these Mott states are unstable above some critical interlayer coupling or long-range Coulomb interaction.

Magnetic-field-induced superconductivity in layered organic molecular crystals with localized magnetic moments

l-(BETS)2FeCl4 undergoes transitions from an antiferromagnetic insulator to a metal and then to a superconductor as a magnetic field is increased. We use a Hubbard-Kondo model to clarify the role of the Fe31 magnetic ions in these phase transitions. In the high-field regime, the magnetic field acting on the electron spins is compensated by the exchange field He due to the magnetic ions. We show how He can be extracted from the observed splitting of the Shubnikov–de Haas frequencies. We predict the field range for field-induced superconductivity in other materials.

The nexus of value chain integration and e-business applications on public sector agriculture R&D management

We examine the potential impact of interconnectivity of value chain partnerships through electronic means (e-business practices) on the management of Public Sector Agriculture R&D in Australia. We review the changing forms of managing research and development, the forces driving these changes, and R&D processes that are theoretically consistent with the move towards value chain involvement and the increase in active constituents in Public Sector Agriculture R&D. We then explore the potential of emerging e-business models to change the patterns of inter-connectivity, speed and omnipresence of partners in the value chain. Three e-business R&D management practices are identified that provide the prerequisite flexibility necessary to take advantage of opportunistic markets. These R&D business practices are: compressing R&D to reduce time to market, fostering co-development to enter a market at the last moment and building flexible products that allow adjustment at the last possible moment. Some fundamental reallocation of existing resources will be required to meet these markets. Implications of these e-business practices for R&D management are discussed.

Grafted fluoropolymers as supports for solid-phase organic chemistry: Preparation and characterization

Solid-phase organic chemistry has rapidly expanded in the last decade, and, as a consequence, so has the need for the development of supports that can withstand the extreme conditions required to facilitate some reactions. The authors here prepare a thermally stable, grafted fluoropolymer support (see Figure for an example) in three solvents, and found that the penetration of the graft was greatest in dichloromethane.

Nitrification in a Vertisol subsoil and its relationship to the accumulation of ammonium-nitrogen at depth

Unusually high concentrations of ammonium have been observed in a Vertisol below 1 m depth in southeast Queensland. This study investigated the possibility that an absence of nitrification is allowing this ammonium to accumulate and persist over time, and examined the soil environmental characteristics that may be responsible for limiting nitrifying organisms. The possibility that anaerobiosis, soil acidity, soil salinity, low organic carbon concentrations, and/or an absence of active nitrifying microorganisms were responsible for limiting nitrification was examined in laboratory and field studies. The presence/absence of anaerobic conditions was determined qualitatively using a field test to give an indication of electron lability. In addition, an incubation study was conducted and soil environmental conditions were improved for nitrifying organisms by adjusting the pH from 4.4 to 7, adjusting the electrical conductivity from 1.6 to 0.5 dS/m, amending with a soluble carbon substrate at a rate of 500 mg/kg, and using microorganisms from the surface horizon to inoculate to the subsoil. Over a 180-day period no nitrification was detected in the control samples from the incubation study, indicating that an extremely low rate of nitrification is likely to be responsible for allowing ammonium to accumulate in this soil. Analysis of the effect of soil environmental conditions on nitrification revealed that anaerobic conditions did not exist at depth and that pH, EC, organic carbon, and inoculation treatments added in isolation had no effect on nitrification. However, when inoculum was added to the soil in combination with pH, a significant increase in nitrification was observed, and the greatest amount of nitrification was observed when inoculum, pH, and EC treatments were added in combination. It was concluded that the reason for the low rate of nitrification in this soil is primarily the absence of a significant population of active nitrifying microorganisms, which may have been unable to colonise the subsoil environment due to its acidic, and to a lesser extent, its saline environment.

Improvements to peroxide oxidation methods for analysing sulfur in acid sulfate soils

Improvements to peroxide oxidation methods for analysing acid sulfate soils (ASS) are introduced. The soil solution ratio has been increased to 1 : 40, titrations are performed in suspension, and the duration of the peroxide digest stage is substantially shortened. For 9 acid sulfate soils, the peroxide oxidisable sulfur value obtained using the improved method was compared with the reduced inorganic sulfur result obtained using the chromium reducible sulfur method. Their regression was highly significant, the slope of the regression line was not significantly different (P = 0.05) from unity, and the intercept not significantly different from zero. A complete sulfur budget for the improved method showed there was no loss of sulfur as has been reported for earlier peroxide oxidation techniques. When soils were very finely ground, efficient oxidation of sulfides was achieved, despite the milder digestion conditions. Highly sulfidic and organic soils were shown to be the most difficult to analyse using either the improved method or the chromium method. No single analytical method can be universally applied to all ASS, rather a suite of methods is necessary for a thorough understanding of many ASS. The improved peroxide method, in combination with the chromium method and the 4 M HCl extraction, form a sound platform for informed decision making on the management of acid sulfate soils.

Productivity growth in pre-1990 Mongolian agriculture: Spiralling disaster or emerging success?

The reasons for the spectacular collapse of so many centrally-planned economies are a source of ongoing debate. In this paper, we use detailed farm-level data to measure total factor productivity (TFP) changes in Mongolian grain and potato farming during the 14-year period immediately preceding the 1990 economic reforms. We measure TFP growth using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. Our results indicate quite poor overall performance, with an average annual TFP change of - 1.7% in grain and 0.8% in potatoes, over the 14-year period. However, the pattern of TFP growth changed substantially during this period, with TFP growth exceeding 7% per year in the latter half of this period. This suggests that the new policies of improved education, greater management autonomy, and improved incentives, which were introduced in final two planning periods in the 1980s, were beginning to have a significant influence upon the performance of Mongolian crop farming. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Trace organic compounds in the marine environment

Trace organic chemicals include a range of compounds which, due to a combination of their physico-chemical properties and toxicological implications, have been described as a serious threat to the biotic environment. A global treaty to regulate the manufacture and release of some of the most persistent trace chemicals has been promulgated and signed. The marine environment is an important sink for many trace chemicals, some of which accumulate in the marine food chain and in particular in marine mammals. With respect to the global distribution of trace organic chemicals, the levels of organohalogen compounds in the Southern Hemisphere are comparatively lower for a given environmental compartment and latitude compared to the Northern Hemisphere. A debate is currently evolving about the toxicity of alternative halogen substitutions such as bromine instead of chlorine and also of mixed halogen substitution. Recently a series of potentially natural bioaccumulative and persistent organohalogen chemicals have been found in marine mammals and turtles at levels in excess of those of anthropogenic trace organochlorines including PCBs and DDE. Little is known about the sources, behaviour and effects of natural trace organic chemicals. This manuscript presents an overview on the occurrence of trace organic chemicals in different compartments of the aquatic environment. Important knowledge gaps with regards to trace chemicals in the marine environment are presented. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organic microcavity light-emitting diodes with metal mirrors: dependence of the emission wavelength on the viewing angle

Organic microcavity light-emitting diodes typically exhibit a blueshift of the emitting wavelength with increasing viewing angle. We have modeled the shift of the resonance wavelength for several metal mirrors. Eight metals (Al, Ag, Cr, Ti, Au, Ni, Pt, and Cu) have been considered as top or bottom mirrors, depending on their work functions. The model fully takes into account the dependence of the phase change that occurs on reflection on angle and wavelength for both s and p polarization, as well as on dispersion in the organic layers. Different contributions to the emission wavelength shift are discussed. The influence of the thickness of the bottom mirror and of the choice and thickness of the organic materials inside the cavity has been investigated. Based on the results obtained, guidelines for a choice of materials to reduce blueshift; are given. (C) 2002 Optical Society of America.