Surface wave processes in air-sea interaction

We review briefly recent progress on understanding the role of surface waves on the marine atmospheric boundary layer and the ocean mixed layer and give a global perspective on these processes by analysing ERA-40 data. Ocean surface waves interact with the marine atmospheric boundary layer in two broad regimes: (i) the conventional wind-driven wave regime, when fast winds blow over slower moving waves, and (ii) a wave-driven wind regime when long wavelength swell propagates under low winds, and generates a wave-driven jet in the lower part of the marine boundary layer. Analysis of ERA-40 data indicates that the wave-driven wind regime is as prevalent as the conventional wind-driven regime. Ocean surface waves also change profoundly mixing in the ocean mixed layer through generation of Langmuir circulation. Results from large-eddy simulation are used here to develop a scaling for the resulting Langmuir turbulence, which is a necessary step in developing a parametrization of the process. ERA-40 data is then used to show that the Langmuir regime is the predominant regime over much of the global ocean, providing a compelling motivation for parameterising this process in ocean general circulation models.

Is the Indian Ocean SST variability a homogeneous diffusion process.

Whereas the predominance of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability is well established, no such consensus seems to have been reached by climate scientists regarding the Indian Ocean. While a number of researchers think that the Indian Ocean SST variability is dominated by an active dipolar-type mode of variability, similar to ENSO, others suggest that the variability is mostly passive and behaves like an autocorrelated noise. For example, it is suggested recently that the Indian Ocean SST variability is consistent with the null hypothesis of a homogeneous diffusion process. However, the existence of the basin-wide warming trend represents a deviation from a homogeneous diffusion process, which needs to be considered. An efficient way of detrending, based on differencing, is introduced and applied to the Hadley Centre ice and SST. The filtered SST anomalies over the basin (23.5N-29.5S, 30.5E-119.5E) are then analysed and found to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. The same differencing method is then applied to the smaller tropical Indian Ocean domain. This smaller domain is also inconsistent with the null hypothesis on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. In particular, it is found that the leading mode of variability yields the Indian Ocean dipole, and departs significantly from the null hypothesis only in the autumn season.

Abrupt climate change: ice sheets and oceans in action

Large temperature variations on land, in the air, and at the ocean surface, and highly variable flux of ice-rafted debris (IRD) delivered to the North Atlantic Ocean show that rapid climate fluctuations took place during the last glacial period. These quasi-periodic, high-amplitude climate variations followed a sequence of events recognized as a rapid warming, followed by a phase of gradual cooling, and terminating with more rapid cooling and increased flux of IRD to the north Atlantic Ocean. Each cycle lasted ˜1500 years, and was followed by an almost identical sequence. These cycles are referred to as Dansgaard/Oechger cycles (D/O cycles), and approximately every fourth cycle culminated in a more pronounced cooling with a massive discharge of IRD into the north Atlantic Ocean over an interval of ˜500 years. These massive discharges of IRD are known as Heinrich layers. “Heinrich events” are thus characterized as a rapid transfer of IRD from a “source,” the bed of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), to a “sink,” the North Atlantic.

Sonic to ultrasonic Q of sandstones and limestones: Laboratory measurements at in situ pressures

Laboratory measurements of the attenuation and velocity dispersion of compressional and shear waves at appropriate frequencies, pressures, and temperatures can aid interpretation of seismic and well-log surveys as well as indicate absorption mechanisms in rocks. Construction and calibration of resonant-bar equipment was used to measure velocities and attenuations of standing shear and extensional waves in copper-jacketed right cylinders of rocks (30 cm in length, 2.54 cm in diameter) in the sonic frequency range and at differential pressures up to 65 MPa. We also measured ultrasonic velocities and attenuations of compressional and shear waves in 50-mm-diameter samples of the rocks at identical pressures. Extensional-mode velocities determined from the resonant bar are systematically too low, yielding unreliable Poisson's ratios. Poisson's ratios determined from the ultrasonic data are frequency corrected and used to calculate the sonic-frequency compressional-wave velocities and attenuations from the shear- and extensional-mode data. We calculate the bulk-modulus loss. The accuracies of attenuation data (expressed as 1000/Q, where Q is the quality factor) are +/- 1 for compressional and shear waves at ultrasonic frequency, +/- 1 for shear waves, and +/- 3 for compressional waves at sonic frequency. Example sonic-frequency data show that the energy absorption in a limestone is small (Q(P) greater than 200 and stress independent) and is primarily due to poroelasticity, whereas that in the two sandstones is variable in magnitude (Q(P) ranges from less than 50 to greater than 300, at reservoir pressures) and arises from a combination of poroelasticity and viscoelasticity. A graph of compressional-wave attenuation versus compressional-wave velocity at reservoir pressures differentiates high-permeability (> 100 mD, 9.87 X 10(-14) m(2)) brine-saturated sandstones from low-permeability (< 100 mD, 9.87 X 10 (14) m(2)) sandstones and shales.

Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate. The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 degrees C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10 degrees of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 degrees C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time. The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as "greenhouse" and "icehouse", although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of late glacial ice-marginal lakes on the northwestern Canadian Shield and their influence on the location of the Dubawnt Lake palaeo-ice stream

During deglaciation of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet large proglacial lakes developed in positions where proglacial drainage was impeded by the ice margin. For some of these lakes, it is known that subsequent drainage had an abrupt and widespread impact on North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climate, but less is known about the impact that the lakes exerted on ice sheet dynamics. This paper reports palaeogeographic reconstructions of the evolution of proglacial lakes during deglaciation across the northwestern Canadian Shield, covering an area in excess of 1,000,000 km(2) as the ice sheet retreated some 600 km. The interactions between proglacial lakes and ice sheet flow are explored, with a particular emphasis on whether the disposition of lakes may have influenced the location of the Dubawnt Lake ice stream. This ice stream falls outside the existing paradigm for ice streams in the Laurentide Ice Sheet because it did not operate over fined-grained till or lie in a topographic trough. Ice margin positions and a digital elevation model are utilised to predict the geometry and depth of proglacial takes impounded at the margin at 30-km increments during deglaciation. Palaeogeographic reconstructions match well with previous independent estimates of lake coverage inferred from field evidence, and results suggest that the development of a deep lake in the Thelon drainage basin may have been influential in initiating the ice stream by inducing calving, drawing down ice and triggering fast ice flow. This is the only location alongside this sector of the ice sheet where large (>3000 km(2)), deep lakes (similar to120 m) are impounded for a significant length of time and exactly matches the location of the ice stream. It is speculated that the commencement of calving at the ice sheet margin may have taken the system beyond a threshold and was sufficient to trigger rapid motion but that once initiated, calving processes and losses were insignificant to the functioning of the ice stream. It is thus concluded that proglacial lakes are likely to have been an important control on ice sheet dynamics during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subglacial bedform evidence for a major palaeo-ice stream and its retreat phases in Amundsen Gulf, Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Ascertaining the location of palaeo-ice streams is crucial in order to produce accurate reconstructions of palaeo-ice sheets and examine interactions with the ocean-climate system. This paper reports evidence for a major ice stream in Amundsen Gulf, Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Mapping from satellite imagery (Landsat ETM+) and digital elevation models, including bathymetric data, is used to reconstruct flow-patterns on southwestern Victoria Island and the adjacent mainland (Nunavut and Northwest Territories). Several flow-sets indicative of ice streaming are found feeding into the marine trough and cross-cutting relationships between these flow-sets (and utilising previously published radiocarbon dates) reveal several phases of ice stream activity centred in Amundsen Gulf and Dolphin and Union Strait. A large erosional footprint on the continental shelf indicates that the ice stream (ca. 1000 km long and ca. 150 km wide) filled Amundsen Gulf, probably at the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequent to this, the ice stream reorganised as the margin retreated back along the marine trough, eventually splitting into two separate low-gradient lobes in Prince Albert Sound and Dolphin and Union Strait. The location of this major ice stream holds important implications for ice sheet-ocean interactions and specifically, the development of Arctic Ocean ice shelves and the delivery of icebergs into the western Arctic Ocean during the late Pleistocene. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC

The tropospheric response to a forced shutdown of the North Atlantic Ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)]. The strength of the boreal winter North Atlantic storm track is significantly increased and penetrates much farther into western Europe. The changes in the storm track are shown to be consistent with the changes in near-surface baroclinicity, which can be linked to changes in surface temperature gradients near regions of sea ice formation and in the open ocean. Changes in the SST of the tropical Atlantic are linked to a strengthening of the subtropical jet to the north, which, combined with the enhanced storm track, leads to a pronounced split in the jet structure over Europe. EOF analysis and stationary box indices methods are used to analyze changes to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There is no consistent signal of a change in the variability of the NAO, and while the changes in the mean flow project onto the positive NAO phase, they are significantly different from it. However, there is a clear eastward shift of the NAO pattern in the shutdown run, and this potentially has implications for ocean circulation and for the interpretation of proxy paleoclimate records.

Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model

The climatology of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 coupled general circulation model (GCM) is presented. The atmosphere GCM has a T21 spectral truncation and the ocean GCM has a 2°×1.5° average resolution. A 50-year climatic simulation is performed using the OASIS coupler, without flux correction techniques. The mean state and seasonal cycle for the last 10 years of the experiment are described and compared to the corresponding uncoupled experiments and to climatology when available. The model reasonably simulates most of the basic features of the observed climate. Energy budgets and transports in the coupled system, of importance for climate studies, are assessed and prove to be within available estimates. After an adjustment phase of a few years, the model stabilizes around a mean state where the tropics are warm and resemble a permanent ENSO, the Southern Ocean warms and almost no sea-ice is left in the Southern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal and symmetric with respect to the equator. Once those systematic errors are established, the model shows little secular drift, the small remaining trends being mainly associated to horizontal physics in the ocean GCM. The stability of the model is shown to be related to qualities already present in the uncoupled GCMs used, namely a balanced radiation budget at the top-of-the-atmosphere and a tight ocean thermocline.

The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.

A comparison of the variability of biological nutrients against depth and potential density.

The main biogeochemical nutrient distributions, along with ambient ocean temperature and the light field, control ocean biological productivity. Observations of nutrients are much sparser than physical observations of temperature and salinity, yet it is critical to validate biogeochemical models against these sparse observations if we are to successfully model biological variability and trends. Here we use data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the World Ocean Database 2005 to demonstrate quantitatively that over the entire globe a significant fraction of the temporal variability of phosphate, silicate and nitrate within the oceans is correlated with water density. The temporal variability of these nutrients as a function of depth is almost always greater than as a function of potential density, with he largest reductions in variability found within the main pycnocline. The greater nutrient variability as a function of depth occurs when dynamical processes vertically displace nutrient and density fields together on shorter timescales than biological adjustments. These results show that dynamical processes can have a significant impact on the instantaneous nutrient distributions. These processes must therefore be considered when modeling biogeochemical systems, when comparing such models with observations, or when assimilating data into such models.

Observation and origin of an interannual salinity anomaly in the Mozambique Channel

A positive salinity anomaly of 0.2 PSU was observed between 50 and 200 m over the years 2000–2001 across the Mozambique Channel at a section at 17°S which was repeated in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008. Meanwhile, a moored array is continued from 2003 to 2008. This anomaly was most distinct showing an interannual but nonseasonal variation. The possible origin of the anomaly is investigated using output from three ocean general circulation models (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modeling, and Parallel Ocean Program). The most probable mechanism for the salinity anomaly is the anomalous inflow of subtropical waters caused by a weakening of the northern part of the South Equatorial Current by weaker trade winds. This mechanism was found in all three numerical models. In addition, the numerical models indicate a possible salinization of one of the source water masses to the Mozambique Channel as an additional cause of the anomaly. The anomaly propagated southward into the Agulhas Current and northward along the African coast.

Data assimilation for marine monitoring and prediction: The MERCATOR operational assimilation systems and the MERSEA developments

During the past 15 years, a number of initiatives have been undertaken at national level to develop ocean forecasting systems operating at regional and/or global scales. The co-ordination between these efforts has been organized internationally through the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). The French MERCATOR project is one of the leading participants in GODAE. The MERCATOR systems routinely assimilate a variety of observations such as multi-satellite altimeter data, sea-surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles, focusing on high-resolution scales of the ocean dynamics. The assimilation strategy in MERCATOR is based on a hierarchy of methods of increasing sophistication including optimal interpolation, Kalman filtering and variational methods, which are progressively deployed through the Syst`eme d’Assimilation MERCATOR (SAM) series. SAM-1 is based on a reduced-order optimal interpolation which can be operated using ‘altimetry-only’ or ‘multi-data’ set-ups; it relies on the concept of separability, assuming that the correlations can be separated into a product of horizontal and vertical contributions. The second release, SAM-2, is being developed to include new features from the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, such as three-dimensional, multivariate error modes and adaptivity schemes. The third one, SAM-3, considers variational methods such as the incremental four-dimensional variational algorithm. Most operational forecasting systems evaluated during GODAE are based on least-squares statistical estimation assuming Gaussian errors. In the framework of the EU MERSEA (Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area) project, research is being conducted to prepare the next-generation operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems. The research effort will explore nonlinear assimilation formulations to overcome limitations of the current systems. This paper provides an overview of the developments conducted in MERSEA with the SEEK filter, the Ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance re-sampling filter.

Northern hemisphere snow: measurement, modelling and predictability

Northern hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution from remote sensing (SSM/I), the ERA40 reanalysis product and the HadCM3 general circulation model are compared. Large differences are seen in the February climatologies, particularly over Siberia. The SSM/I retrieval algorithm may be overestimating SWE in this region, while comparison with independent runoff estimates suggest that HadCM3 is underestimating SWE. Treatment of snow grain size and vegetation parameterizations are concerns with the remotely sensed data. For this reason, ERA40 is used as `truth' for the following experiments. Despite the climatology differences, HadCM3 is able to reproduce the distribution of ERA40 SWE anomalies when assimilating ERA40 anomaly fields of temperature, sea level pressure, atmospheric winds and ocean temperature and salinity. However when forecasts are released from these assimilated initial states, the SWE anomaly distribution diverges rapidly from that of ERA40. No predictability is seen from one season to another. Strong links between European SWE distribution and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are seen, but forecasts of this index by the assimilation scheme are poor. Longer term relationships between SWE and the NAO, and SWE and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also investigated in a multi-century run of HadCM3. SWE is impacted by ENSO in the Himalayas and North America, while the NAO affects SWE in North America and Europe. While significant connections with the NAO index were only present in DJF (and to an extent SON), the link between ENSO and February SWE distribution was seen to exist from the previous JJA ENSO index onwards. This represents a long lead time for SWE prediction for hydrological applications such as flood and wildfire forecasting. Further work is required to develop reliable large scale observation-based SWE datasets with which to test these model-derived connections.