A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Numerical exploration of plastic deformation mechanisms of copper nanowires with surface defects

Based on the molecular dynamics simulation, plastic deformation mechanisms associated with the zigzag stress curves in perfect and surface defected copper nanowires under uniaxial tension are studied. In our previous study, it has found that the surface defect exerts larger influence than the centro-plane defect, and the 45o surface defect appears as the most influential surface defect. Hence, in this paper, the nanowire with a 45o surface defect is chosen to investigate the defect’s effect to the plastic deformation mechanism of nanowires. We find that during the plastic deformation of both perfect and defected nanowires, decrease regions of the stress curve are accompanied with stacking faults generation and migration activities, but during stress increase, the structure of the nanowire appears almost unchanged. We also observe that surface defects have obvious influence on the nanowire’s plastic deformation mechanisms. In particular, only two sets of slip planes are found to be active and twins are also observed in the defected nanowire.

Advanced numerical characterization of mono-crystalline copper with defects

Based on the embedded atom method (EAM) and molecular dynamics (MD) method, the mono-crystalline copper with different defects is investigated through tension and nanoindentation simulation. The single-crystal copper nanowire with surface defects is firstly studied through tension. For validation, the tension simulations for nanowire without defect are carried out under different temperatures and strain rates. The defects on nanowires are then systematically studied in considering different defects orientation distribution. It is found that the Young’s modulus is insensitive of surface defects and centro-plane defects. However, the yield strength and yield point show a significant decrease due to the different defects. Specially, the 〖45〗^° defect in surface and in (200) plane exerts the biggest influence to the yield strength, about 34.20% and 51.45% decrease are observed, respectively. Different defects are observed to serve as a dislocation source and different necking positions of the nanowires during tension are found. During nanoindentation simulation, dislocation is found nucleating below the contact area, but no obvious dislocation is generated around the nano-cavity. Comparing with the perfect substrate during nanoindentation, the substrate with nano-cavities emerged less dislocations, it is supposed that the nano-cavity absorbed part of the indent energy, and less plastic deformation happened in the defected substrate.

Numerical analysis for a variable-order nonlinear cable equation

In this paper, a variable-order nonlinear cable equation is considered. A numerical method with first-order temporal accuracy and fourth-order spatial accuracy is proposed. The convergence and stability of the numerical method are analyzed by Fourier analysis. We also propose an improved numerical method with second-order temporal accuracy and fourth-order spatial accuracy. Finally, the results of a numerical example support the theoretical analysis.

Numerical exploration of the defect’s effect on mechanical properties of nanowires under torsion

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been carried out to investigate the defect’s effect on the mechanical properties of single-crystal copper nanowire with different surface defects, under torsion deformation. The torsional rigidity is found insensitive to the surface defects and the critical angle appears an obvious decrease due to the surface defects, the largest decrease is found for the nanowire with surface horizon defect. The deformation mechanism appears different degrees of influence due to surface defects. The surface defects play a role of dislocation sources. Comparing with single intrinsic stacking faults formation for the perfect nanowire, much affluent deformation processes have been activated because of surface defects, for instance, we find the twins formation for the nanowire with a surface 45o defect.

Novel numerical methods for time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions

We consider time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions. This equation is obtained from the standard reaction diffusion equation by replacing the first order time derivative with the Caputo fractional derivative, and the second order space derivatives with the fractional Laplacian. Using the matrix transfer technique proposed by Ilic, Liu, Turner and Anh [Fract. Calc. Appl. Anal., 9:333--349, 2006] and the numerical solution strategy used by Yang, Turner, Liu, and Ilic [SIAM J. Scientific Computing, 33:1159--1180, 2011], the solution of the time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions can be written in terms of a matrix function vector product $f(A)b$ at each time step, where $A$ is an approximate matrix representation of the standard Laplacian. We use the finite volume method over unstructured triangular meshes to generate the matrix $A$, which is therefore non-symmetric. However, the standard Lanczos method for approximating $f(A)b$ requires that $A$ is symmetric. We propose a simple and novel transformation in which the standard Lanczos method is still applicable to find $f(A)b$, despite the loss of symmetry. Numerical results are presented to verify the accuracy and efficiency of our newly proposed numerical solution strategy.

Prandtl number scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate due to uniform surface heat flux

A new scaling analysis has been performed for the unsteady natural convection boundary layer under a downward facing inclined plate with uniform heat flux. The development of the thermal or viscous boundary layers may be classified into three distinct stages including a start-up stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage, which can be clearly identified in the analytical as well as numerical results. Earlier scaling shows that the existing scaling laws of the boundary layer thickness, velocity and steady state time scale for the natural convection flow on a heated plate of uniform heat flux provide a very poor prediction of the Prandtl number dependency of the flow. However, those scalings performed very well with Rayleigh number and aspect ratio dependency. In this study, a new Prandtl number scaling has been developed using a triple-layer integral approach for Pr > 1. It is seen that in comparison to the direct numerical simulations, the new scaling performs considerably better than the previous scaling.

New percentage body fat prediction equations for Japanese females

Anthropometry is a simple and cost-efficient method for the assessment of body composition. However prediction equations to estimate body composition using anthropometry should be ‘population-specific’. Most popular body composition prediction equations for Japanese females were proposed more than 40 years ago and there is some concern regarding their usefulness in Japanese females living today. The aim of this study was to compare percentage body fat (%BF) estimated from anthropometry and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) to examine the applicability of commonly used prediction equations in young Japanese females. Body composition of 139 Japanese females aged between 18 and 27 years of age (BMI range: 15.1–29.1 kg/m2) was measured using whole-body DXA (Lunar DPX-LIQ) scans. From anthropometric measurements %BF was estimated using four equations developed from Japanese females. The results showed that the traditionally employed prediction equations for anthropometry significantly (p<0.01) underestimate %BF of young Japanese females and therefore are not valid for the precise estimation of body composition. New %BF prediction equations were proposed from the DXA and anthropometry results. Application of the proposed equations may assist in more accurate assessment of body fatness in Japanese females living today.

Preliminary study on bridge health prediction using Dynamic Objective Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN)

The availability of bridges is crucial to people’s daily life and national economy. Bridge health prediction plays an important role in bridge management because maintenance optimization is implemented based on prediction results of bridge deterioration. Conventional bridge deterioration models can be categorised into two groups, namely condition states models and structural reliability models. Optimal maintenance strategy should be carried out based on both condition states and structural reliability of a bridge. However, none of existing deterioration models considers both condition states and structural reliability. This study thus proposes a Dynamic Objective Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN) based method to overcome the limitations of the existing methods. This methodology has the ability to act upon as a flexible unifying tool, which can integrate a variety of approaches and information for better bridge deterioration prediction. Two demonstrative case studies are conducted to preliminarily justify the feasibility of the methodology

Event-related brain potentials dissociate the developmental time-course of automatic numerical magnitude analysis and cognitive control functions during the first three years of primary school

In this study we set out to dissociate the developmental time course of automatic symbolic number processing and cognitive control functions in grade 1-3 British primary school children. Event-related potential (ERP) and behavioral data were collected in a physical size discrimination numerical Stroop task. Task-irrelevant numerical information was processed automatically already in grade 1. Weakening interference and strengthening facilitation indicated the parallel development of general cognitive control and automatic number processing. Relationships among ERP and behavioral effects suggest that control functions play a larger role in younger children and that automaticity of number processing increases from grade 1 to 3.

Interactive axial shortening of columns and walls in high rise buildings

Concrete is commonly used as a primary construction material for tall building construction. Load bearing components such as columns and walls in concrete buildings are subjected to instantaneous and long term axial shortening caused by the time dependent effects of "shrinkage", "creep" and "elastic" deformations. Reinforcing steel content, variable concrete modulus, volume to surface area ratio of the elements and environmental conditions govern axial shortening. The impact of differential axial shortening among columns and core shear walls escalate with increasing building height. Differential axial shortening of gravity loaded elements in geometrically complex and irregular buildings result in permanent distortion and deflection of the structural frame which have a significant impact on building envelopes, building services, secondary systems and the life time serviceability and performance of a building. Existing numerical methods commonly used in design to quantify axial shortening are mainly based on elastic analytical techniques and therefore unable to capture the complexity of non-linear time dependent effect. Ambient measurements of axial shortening using vibrating wire, external mechanical strain, and electronic strain gauges are methods that are available to verify pre-estimated values from the design stage. Installing these gauges permanently embedded in or on the surface of concrete components for continuous measurements during and after construction with adequate protection is uneconomical, inconvenient and unreliable. Therefore such methods are rarely if ever used in actual practice of building construction. This research project has developed a rigorous numerical procedure that encompasses linear and non-linear time dependent phenomena for prediction of axial shortening of reinforced concrete structural components at design stage. This procedure takes into consideration (i) construction sequence, (ii) time varying values of Young's Modulus of reinforced concrete and (iii) creep and shrinkage models that account for variability resulting from environmental effects. The capabilities of the procedure are illustrated through examples. In order to update previous predictions of axial shortening during the construction and service stages of the building, this research has also developed a vibration based procedure using ambient measurements. This procedure takes into consideration the changes in vibration characteristic of structure during and after construction. The application of this procedure is illustrated through numerical examples which also highlight the features. The vibration based procedure can also be used as a tool to assess structural health/performance of key structural components in the building during construction and service life.

Theoretical and numerical investigation of bending properties of Cu nanowires

Based on the AFM-bending experiments, a molecular dynamics (MD) bending simulation model is established which could accurately account for the full spectrum of the mechanical properties of NWs in a double clamped beam configuration, ranging from elasticity to plasticity and failure. It is found that, loading rate exerts significant influence to the mechanical behaviours of nanowires (NWs). Specifically, a loading rate lower than 10 m/s is found reasonable for a homogonous bending deformation. Both loading rate and potential between the tip and the NW are found to play an important role in the adhesive phenomenon. The force versus displacement (F-d) curve from MD simulation is highly consistent in shapes with that from experiments. Symmetrical F-d curves during loading and unloading processes are observed, which reveal the linear-elastic and non-elastic bending deformation of NWs. The typical bending induced tensile-compressive features are observed. Meanwhile, the simulation results are excellently fitted by the classical Euler-Bernoulli beam theory with axial effect. It is concluded that, axial tensile force becomes crucial in bending deformation when the beam size is down to nanoscale for double clamped NWs. In addition, we find shorter NWs will have an earlier yielding and a larger yielding force. Mechanical properties (Young’s modulus & yield strength) obtained from both bending and tensile deformations are found comparable with each other. Specifically, the modulus is essentially similar under these two loading methods, while the yield strength during bending is observed larger than that during tension.

Associations between young children's emotion attributions and prediction of outcome in differing social situations

Associations between young children's attributions of emotion at different points in a story, and with regard to their own prediction about the story's outcome, were investigated using two hypothetical scenarios of social and emotional challenge (social entry and negative event). First grade children (N = 250) showed an understanding that emotions are tied to situational cues by varying the emotions they attributed both between and within scenarios. Furthermore, emotions attributed to the main protagonist at the beginning of the scenarios were differentially associated with children's prediction of a positive or negative outcome and with the valence of the emotion attributed at the end of the scenario. Gender differences in responses to some items were also found. © 2010 The British Psychological Society.