Valutazione della qualità ed autenticità di prodotti oleari e lattiero caseari mediante metodi fisici di analisi accoppiati a tecniche statistiche multivariate

Questa tesi descrive alcuni studi di messa a punto di metodi di analisi fisici accoppiati con tecniche statistiche multivariate per valutare la qualità e l’autenticità di oli vegetali e prodotti caseari. L’applicazione di strumenti fisici permette di abbattere i costi ed i tempi necessari per le analisi classiche ed allo stesso tempo può fornire un insieme diverso di informazioni che possono riguardare tanto la qualità come l’autenticità di prodotti. Per il buon funzionamento di tali metodi è necessaria la costruzione di modelli statistici robusti che utilizzino set di dati correttamente raccolti e rappresentativi del campo di applicazione. In questo lavoro di tesi sono stati analizzati oli vegetali e alcune tipologie di formaggi (in particolare pecorini per due lavori di ricerca e Parmigiano-Reggiano per un altro). Sono stati utilizzati diversi strumenti di analisi (metodi fisici), in particolare la spettroscopia, l’analisi termica differenziale, il naso elettronico, oltre a metodiche separative tradizionali. I dati ottenuti dalle analisi sono stati trattati mediante diverse tecniche statistiche, soprattutto: minimi quadrati parziali; regressione lineare multipla ed analisi discriminante lineare.

Raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität anhand von hochaufgelösten interpolierten Klimakarten am Beispiel von Europa (Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie)

Klimamontoring benötigt eine operative, raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität. Mit dieser Zielsetzung, funktionsbereite Karten regelmäßig zu erstellen, ist es hilfreich auf einen Blick, die räumliche Variabilität der Klimaelemente in der zeitlichen Veränderungen darzustellen. Für aktuelle und kürzlich vergangene Jahre entwickelte der Deutsche Wetterdienst ein Standardverfahren zur Erstellung solcher Karten. Die Methode zur Erstellung solcher Karten variiert für die verschiedenen Klimaelemente bedingt durch die Datengrundlage, die natürliche Variabilität und der Verfügbarkeit der in-situ Daten.rnIm Rahmen der Analyse der raum-zeitlichen Variabilität innerhalb dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Interpolationsverfahren auf die Mitteltemperatur der fünf Dekaden der Jahre 1951-2000 für ein relativ großes Gebiet, der Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie (Europa und Naher Osten) angewendet. Die Region deckt ein relativ heterogenes Arbeitsgebiet von Grönland im Nordwesten bis Syrien im Südosten hinsichtlich der Klimatologie ab.rnDas zentrale Ziel der Dissertation ist eine Methode zur räumlichen Interpolation der mittleren Dekadentemperaturwerte für die Region VI zu entwickeln. Diese Methode soll in Zukunft für die operative monatliche Klimakartenerstellung geeignet sein. Diese einheitliche Methode soll auf andere Klimaelemente übertragbar und mit der entsprechenden Software überall anwendbar sein. Zwei zentrale Datenbanken werden im Rahmen dieser Dissertation verwendet: So genannte CLIMAT-Daten über dem Land und Schiffsdaten über dem Meer.rnIm Grunde wird die Übertragung der Punktwerte der Temperatur per räumlicher Interpolation auf die Fläche in drei Schritten vollzogen. Der erste Schritt beinhaltet eine multiple Regression zur Reduktion der Stationswerte mit den vier Einflussgrößen der Geographischen Breite, der Höhe über Normalnull, der Jahrestemperaturamplitude und der thermischen Kontinentalität auf ein einheitliches Niveau. Im zweiten Schritt werden die reduzierten Temperaturwerte, so genannte Residuen, mit der Interpolationsmethode der Radialen Basis Funktionen aus der Gruppe der Neuronalen Netzwerk Modelle (NNM) interpoliert. Im letzten Schritt werden die interpolierten Temperaturraster mit der Umkehrung der multiplen Regression aus Schritt eins mit Hilfe der vier Einflussgrößen auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau hochgerechnet.rnFür alle Stationswerte wird die Differenz zwischen geschätzten Wert aus der Interpolation und dem wahren gemessenen Wert berechnet und durch die geostatistische Kenngröße des Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) wiedergegeben. Der zentrale Vorteil ist die wertegetreue Wiedergabe, die fehlende Generalisierung und die Vermeidung von Interpolationsinseln. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist auf andere Klimaelemente wie Niederschlag, Schneedeckenhöhe oder Sonnenscheindauer übertragbar.

An angiographic analysis of atherosclerosis progression in below-the-knee arteries after femoropopliteal angioplasty in claudicants

Purpose: To report an angiographic investigation of midterm atherosclerotic disease progression in below-the-knee (BTK) arteries of claudicants. Methods: Angiograms were performed in 58 consecutive claudicants (35 men; mean age 68.3±8.7 years) with endovascular treatment of femoropopliteal arteries in 58 limbs after a mean follow-up of 3.6±1.2 years. Angiograms were reviewed in consensus by 2 experienced readers blinded to clinical data. Progression of atherosclerosis in 4 BTK arterial segments (tibioperoneal trunk, anterior and posterior tibial arteries, and peroneal artery) was assessed according to the Bollinger score. The composite per calf Bollinger score represented the average of the 4 BTK arterial segment scores. The association of the Bollinger score with cardiovascular risk factors and gender was scrutinized. Results: A statistically significant increase in atherosclerotic burden was observed for the mean composite per calf Bollinger score (5.7±8.3 increase, 95% CI 3.5 to 7.9, p<0.0001), as well as for each single arterial segment analyzed. In multivariate linear regression analysis, diabetes mellitus was associated with a more pronounced progression of atherosclerotic burden in crural arteries (β: 5.6, p=0.035, 95% CI 0.398 to 10.806). Conclusion: Progression of infrapopliteal atherosclerotic lesions is common in claudicants during midterm follow-up. Presence of diabetes mellitus was confirmed as a major risk factor for more pronounced atherosclerotic BTK disease progression.

Predictors and overestimation of recalled mobile phone use among children and adolescents

A growing body of literature addresses possible health effects of mobile phone use in children and adolescents by relying on the study participants' retrospective reconstruction of mobile phone use. In this study, we used data from the international case-control study CEFALO to compare self-reported with objectively operator-recorded mobile phone use. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of level of mobile phone use as well as factors that are associated with overestimating own mobile phone use. For cumulative number and duration of calls as well as for time since first subscription we calculated the ratio of self-reported to operator-recorded mobile phone use. We used multiple linear regression models to assess possible predictors of the average number and duration of calls per day and logistic regression models to assess possible predictors of overestimation. The cumulative number and duration of calls as well as the time since first subscription of mobile phones were overestimated on average by the study participants. Likelihood to overestimate number and duration of calls was not significantly different for controls compared to cases (OR=1.1, 95%-CI: 0.5 to 2.5 and OR=1.9, 95%-CI: 0.85 to 4.3, respectively). However, likelihood to overestimate was associated with other health related factors such as age and sex. As a consequence, such factors act as confounders in studies relying solely on self-reported mobile phone use and have to be considered in the analysis.

A PRISMA assessment of the reporting quality of systematic reviews in orthodontics

Abstract Objectives: To assess the reporting quality of Cochrane and non-Cochrane systematic reviews (SR) in orthodontics and to compare the reporting quality (PRISMA score) with methodological quality (AMSTAR criteria). Materials and Methods: Systematic reviews (n  =  109) published between January 2000 and July 2011 in five leading orthodontic journals were identified and included. The quality of reporting of the included reviews was assessed by two authors in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. Each article was assigned a cumulative grade based on fulfillment of the applicable criteria, and an overall percentage score was assigned. Descriptive statistics and simple and multiple linear regression analyses were undertaken. Results: The mean overall PRISMA score was 64.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 62%-65%). The quality of reporting was considerably better in reviews published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (P < .001) than in non-Cochrane reviews. Both multivariable and univariable analysis indicated that journal of publication and number of authors was significantly associated with the PRISMA score. The association between AMSTAR score and modified PRISMA score was also found to be highly statistically significant. Conclusion: Compliance of orthodontic SRs published in orthodontic journals with PRISMA guidelines was deficient in several areas. The quality of reporting assessed using PRISMA guidelines was significantly better in orthodontic SRs published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews.

Sleepless night, the moon is bright: longitudinal study of lunar phase and sleep

Popular belief holds that the lunar cycle affects human physiology, behaviour and health. We examined the influence of moon phase on sleep duration in a secondary analysis of a feasibility study of mobile telephone base stations and sleep quality. We studied 31 volunteers (18 women and 13 men, mean age 50 years) from a suburban area of Switzerland longitudinally over 6 weeks, including two full moons. Subjective sleep duration was calculated from sleep diary data. Data were analysed using multiple linear regression models with random effects. Mean sleep duration was 6 h 49 min. Subjective sleep duration varied with the lunar cycle, from 6 h 41 min at full moon to 7 h 00 min at new moon (P < 0.001). Average sleep duration was shortened by 68 min during the week compared with weekends (P < 0.001). Men slept 17 min longer than women (P < 0.001) and sleep duration decreased with age (P < 0.001). There was also evidence that rating of fatigue in the morning was associated with moon phase, with more tiredness (P = 0.027) at full moon. The study was designed for other purposes and the association between lunar cycle and sleep duration will need to be confirmed in further studies.

Anemia is associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) size and decreased long-term survival after endovascular AAA repair

OBJECTIVE: Anemia is a common comorbid condition in various inflammatory states and an established predictor of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and end-stage renal disease. The present study of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) undergoing endovascular repair (EVAR) assessed the relationships between baseline hemoglobin concentration and AAA size, as well as anemia and long-term survival. METHODS: Between March 1994 and November 2006, 711 patients (65 women, mean age 75.8 +/- 7.8 years) underwent elective EVAR. Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin level <13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women. Post-EVAR mean follow-up was 48.3 +/- 32.0 months. Association of hemoglobin level with AAA size was assessed with multiple linear regression. Mortality was determined with use of the internet-based Social Security Death Index and the electronic hospital record. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of anemic and nonanemic patient groups were compared by the log-rank method. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the influence of anemia on vital status after EVAR. RESULTS: A total of 218/711 (30.7%) of AAA patients undergoing EVAR had anemia at baseline. After adjustment for various risk factors, hemoglobin level was inversely related to maximum AAA diameter (beta: - .144, 95%-CI: -1.482 - .322, P = .002). Post-EVAR survival was 65.5% at 5 years and 44.4% at 10 years. In long-term follow-up, survival was significantly lower in patients with anemia as compared to patients without anemia (P < .0001 by log-rank). Baseline hemoglobin levels were independently related to long-term mortality in multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for various risk factors (adjusted HR: 0.866, 95% CI: .783 to .958, P = .005). Within this model, statin use (adjusted HR: .517, 95% CI: .308 to .868, P = .013) was independently related to long-term survival, whereas baseline AAA diameter (adjusted HR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.009 to 1.036, P = .001) was an independently associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline hemoglobin concentration is independently associated with AAA size and reduced long-term survival following EVAR. Thus, the presence or absence of anemia offers a potential refinement of existing risk stratification instruments.

Quantitative assessment of soil parameters in Western Tajikistan using a soil spectral library approach

Soil degradation is a major problem in the agriculturally dominated country of Tajikistan, which makes it necessary to determine and monitor the state of soils. For this purpose a soil spectral library was established as it enables the determination of soil properties with relatively low costs and effort. A total of 1465 soil samples were collected from three 10x10 km test sites in western Tajikistan. The diffuse reflectance of the samples was measured with a FieldSpec PRO FR from ASD in the spectral range from 380 to 2500 nm in laboratory. 166 samples were finally selected based on their spectral information and analysed on total C and N, organic C, pH, CaCO₃, extractable P, exchangeable Ca, Mg and K, and the fractions clay, silt and sand. Multiple linear regression was used to set up the models. Two third of the chemically analysed samples were used to calibrate the models, one third was used for hold-out validation. Very good prediction accuracy was obtained for total C (R² = 0.76, RMSEP = 4.36 g kg⁻¹), total N (R² = 0.83, RMSEP = 0.30 g kg⁻¹) and organic C (R² = 0.81, RMSEP = 3.30 g kg⁻¹), good accuracy for pH (R² = 0.61, RMSEP = 0.157) and CaCO3(R² = 0.72, RMSEP = 4.63 %). No models could be developed for extractable P, exchangeable Ca, Mg and K, and the fractions clay, silt and sand. It can be concluded that the spectral library approach has a high potential to substitute standard laboratory methods where rapid and inexpensive analysis is required.

Development of a screening tool predicting the transition from acute to chronic low back pain for patients in a GP setting: protocol of a multinational prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is by far the most prevalent and costly musculoskeletal problem in our society today. Following the recommendations of the Multinational Musculoskeletal Inception Cohort Study (MMICS) Statement, our study aims to define outcome assessment tools for patients with acute LBP and the time point at which chronic LBP becomes manifest and to identify patient characteristics which increase the risk of chronicity. METHODS: Patients with acute LBP will be recruited from clinics of general practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand (NZ) and Switzerland (CH). They will be assessed by postal survey at baseline and at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months follow-up. Primary outcome will be disability as measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI); key secondary endpoints will be general health as measured by the acute SF-12 and pain as measured on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). A subgroup analysis of different assessment instruments and baseline characteristics will be performed using multiple linear regression models. This study aims to examine: 1. Which biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational outcome assessment tools are identifiers for the transition from acute to chronic LBP and at which time point this transition becomes manifest. 2. Which psychosocial and occupational baseline characteristics like work status and period of work absenteeism influence the course from acute to chronic LBP. 3. Differences in outcome assessment tools and baseline characteristics of patients in NZ compared with CH. DISCUSSION: This study will develop a screening tool for patients with acute LBP to be used in GP clinics to access the risk of developing chronic LBP. In addition, biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational patient characteristics which influence the course from acute to chronic LBP will be identified. Furthermore, an appropriate time point for follow-ups will be given to detect this transition. The generalizability of our findings will be enhanced by the international perspective of this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12608000520336].

The international spine registry SPINE TANGO: status quo and first results

With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.

EVALUATION OF INTELLIGENT COMPACTION CONTROL IN THE M-189 RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT AT IRON RIVER, MICHIGAN

This research evaluated an Intelligent Compaction (IC) unit on the M-189 highway reconstruction project at Iron River, Michigan. The results from the IC unit were compared to several traditional compaction measurement devices including Nuclear Density Gauge (NDG), Geogauge, Light Weight Deflectometer (LWD), Dynamic Cone Penetrometer (DCP), and Modified Clegg Hammer (MCH). The research collected point measurements data on a test section in which 30 test locations on the final Class II sand base layer and the 22A gravel layer. These point measurements were compared with the IC measurements (ICMVs) on a point-to-point basis through a linear regression analysis. Poor correlations were obtained among different measurements points using simple regression analysis. When comparing the ICMV to the compaction measurements points. Factors attributing to the weak correlation include soil heterogeneity, variation in IC roller operation parameters, in-place moisture content, the narrow range of the compaction devices measurement ranges and support conditions of the support layers. After incorporating some of the affecting factors into a multiple regression analysis, the strength of correlation significantly improved, especially on the stiffer gravel layer. Measurements were also studied from an overall distribution perspective in terms of average, measurement range, standard deviation, and coefficient of variance. Based on data analysis, on-site project observation and literature review, conclusions were made on how IC performed in regards to compaction control on the M-189 reconstruction project.

Graft coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplantation--evaluation of risk factors by multivariate analysis

The development of coronary vasculopathy is the main determinant of long-term survival in cardiac transplantation. The identification of risk factors, therefore, seems necessary in order to identify possible treatment strategies. Ninety-five out of 397 patients, undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplantation from 10/1985 to 10/1992 were evaluated retrospectively on the basis of perioperative and postoperative variables including age, sex, diagnosis, previous operations, renal function, cholesterol levels, dosage of immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporin A, azathioprine, steroids), incidence of rejection, treatment with calcium channel blockers at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months postoperatively. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed by annual angiography at 1 and 2 years postoperatively. After univariate analysis, data were evaluated by stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed in 15 patients at 1 (16%), and in 23 patients (24%) at 2, years. On multivariate analysis, previous operations and the incidence of rejections were identified as significant risk factors (P < 0.05), whereas the underlying diagnosis had borderline significance (P = 0.058) for the development of graft coronary vasculopathy. In contrast, all other variables were not significant in our subset of patients investigated. We therefore conclude that the development of coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplant patients mainly depends on the rejection process itself, aside from patient-dependent factors. Therapeutic measures, such as the administration of calcium channel blockers and regulation of lipid disorders, may therefore only reduce the progress of native atherosclerotic disease in the posttransplant setting.