Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25 km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble

The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25 km horizontal resolution for 150 years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44 % decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53 % in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10 m wind speed > 35 m/s) was found to increase by 3-9 %. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation.

The BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System) fi eld experiments: A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer data set for model validation over the open and ice- covered Baltic Sea

A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) data set was collected in eight fi eld experiments (two during each season) over open water and sea ice in the Baltic Sea during 1998–2001 with the primary objective to validate the coupled atmospheric- ice-ocean-land surface model BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System). Measurements were taken by aircraft, ships and surface stations and cover the mean and turbulent structure of the ABL including turbulent fl uxes, radiation fl uxes, and cloud conditions. Measurement examples of the spatial variability of the ABL over the ice edge zone and of the stable ABL over open water demonstrate the wide range of ABL conditions collected and the strength of the data set which can also be used to validate other regional models.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Cellular automaton model for molecular traffic jams

We consider the time evolution of an exactly solvable cellular automaton with random initial conditions both in the large-scale hydrodynamic limit and on the microscopic level. This model is a version of the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process with sublattice parallel update and thus may serve as a model for studying traffic jams in systems of self-driven particles. We study the emergence of shocks from the microscopic dynamics of the model. In particular, we introduce shock measures whose time evolution we can compute explicitly, both in the thermodynamic limit and for open boundaries where a boundary-induced phase transition driven by the motion of a shock occurs. The motion of the shock, which results from the collective dynamics of the exclusion particles, is a random walk with an internal degree of freedom that determines the jump direction. This type of hopping dynamics is reminiscent of some transport phenomena in biological systems.

The shoving model for the glass-former LiCl center dot 6H(2)O: A molecular dynamics simulation study

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of LiCl center dot 6H(2)O Showed that the diffusion coefficient D, and also I lie structural relaxation time , follow a power law at high temperatures, D(-1) proportional to (T - T(0))(-mu), with the same experimental parameters for viscosity (T(0) = 207 K, mu = 2.08). Decoupling between D and occurs at T(x) similar to 1.1 T(0). High frequency acoustic excitations for the LiCl center dot 6H(2)O model were obtained by the calculation of time correlation functions of mass current fluctuations. The temperature dependence of the instantaneous shear modulus, G,(T), was considered in the shoving model for supercooled liquids [J.C. Dyre, T. Christensen, N.B. Olsen, J. Non-Cryst. Solids 352 (2006) 4635] resulting in a linear relationship log (D(-1)) vs. G root T. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2D QSAR and similarity studies on cruzain inhibitors aimed at improving selectivity over cathepsin L

Hologram quantitative structure-activity relationships (HQSAR) were applied to a data set of 41 cruzain inhibitors. The best HQSAR model (Q(2) = 0.77; R-2 = 0.90) employing Surflex-Sim, as training and test sets generator, was obtained using atoms, bonds, and connections as fragment distinctions and 4-7 as fragment size. This model was then used to predict the potencies of 12 test set compounds, giving satisfactory predictive R-2 value of 0,88. The contribution maps obtained from the best HQSAR model are in agreement with the biological activities of the study compounds. The Trypanosoma cruzi cruzain shares high similarity with the mammalian homolog cathepsin L. The selectivity toward cruzam was checked by a database of 123 compounds, which corresponds to the 41 cruzain inhibitors used in the HQSAR model development plus 82 cathepsin L inhibitors. We screened these compounds by ROCS (Rapid Overlay of Chemical Structures), a Gaussian-shape volume overlap filter that can rapidly identify shapes that match the query molecule. Remarkably, ROCS was able to rank the first 37 hits as being only cruzain inhibitors. In addition, the area under the curve (AUC) obtained with ROCS was 0.96, indicating that the method was very efficient to distinguishing between cruzain and cathepsin L inhibitors. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved Road Design for Future Maintenance - Analysis of Road Barrier Repair Costs

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of the design, quality of construction, maintenance strategies and maintenance operations. Unfortunately, designers often neglect a very important aspect which is the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. The focus is mainly on other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This licentiate thesis is a part of a Ph.D. project entitled “Road Design for lower maintenance costs” that aims to examine how the life-cycle costs can be optimized by selection of appropriate geometrical designs for the roads and their components. The result is expected to give a basis for a new method used in the road planning and design process using life-cycle cost analysis with particular emphasis on road maintenance. The project started with a review of literature with the intention to study conditions causing increased needs for road maintenance, the efforts made by the road authorities to satisfy those needs and the improvement potential by consideration of maintenance aspects during planning and design. An investigation was carried out to identify the problems which obstruct due consideration of maintenance aspects during the road planning and design process. This investigation focused mainly on the road planning and design process at the Swedish Road Administration. However, the road planning and design process in Denmark, Finland and Norway were also roughly evaluated to gain a broader knowledge about the research subject. The investigation was carried out in two phases: data collection and data analysis. Data was collected by semi-structured interviews with expert actors involved in planning, design and maintenance and by a review of design-related documents. Data analyses were carried out using a method called “Change Analysis”. This investigation revealed a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. Another study was carried out to develop a model for calculation of the repair costs for damages of different road barrier types and to analyse how factors such as road type, speed limits, barrier types, barrier placement, type of road section, alignment and seasonal effects affect the barrier damages and the associated repair costs. This study was carried out using a method called the “Case Study Research Method”. Data was collected from 1087 barrier repairs in two regional offices of the Swedish Road Administration, the Central Region and the Western Region. A table was established for both regions containing the repair cost per vehicle kilometre for different combinations of barrier types, road types and speed limits. This table can be used by the designers in the calculation of the life-cycle costs for different road barrier types.

USGS Topographic Maps over a Hillshaded Digital Elevation Model

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2005/1013/thumbnail.jpg

Investigation of the two-photon absorption cross-section in perylene tetracarboxylic derivatives: Nonlinear spectra and molecular structure

We investigated the 2PA absorption spectrum of a family of perylene tetracarboxylic derivatives ( PTCDs): bis( benzimidazo) perylene ( AzoPTCD), bis( benzimidazo) thioperylene ( Monothio BZP), n-pentylimidobenzimidazoperylene ( PazoPTCD), and bis( n-butylimido) perylene ( BuPTCD). These compounds present extremely high two-photon absorption, which makes them attractive for applications in photonics devices. The two-photon absorption cross-section spectra of perylene derivatives obtained via Z-scan technique were fitted by means of a sum-over-states ( SOS) model, which described with accuracy the different regions of the 2PA cross-section spectra. Frontier molecular orbital calculations show that all molecules present similar features, indicating that nonlinear optical properties in PTCDs are mainly determined by the central portion of the molecule, with minimal effect from the lateral side groups. In general, our results pointed out that the differences in the 2PA cross-sections among the compounds are mainly due to the nonlinearity resonance enhancement.

Double sampling (x)over-bar control chart for a first-order autoregressive moving average process model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Polyclonal endemicity of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a teaching hospital from Brazil: molecular typing of decade-old strains

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Growth hormone 1 gene (GH1) polymorphisms as possible markers of the production potential of beef cattle using the Brazilian Canchim breed as a model

The growth hormone 1 gene (GH1) is a candidate gene for body weight and weight gain in cattle since it plays a fundamental role in growth regulation. We investigated the GH1 gene AluI and DdeI restriction enzyme polymorphisms, located 149 bp apart in the cattle genome, as possible markers of the production potential of Canchim crossbreed cattle, a 5/8 Charolais (Bos taurus) and 3/8 Nelore (Bos indicus) breed developed in Brazil, by evaluating the birth weight, weaning weight, yearling weight and plasma insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) concentration of 7 month to 10 months old Canchim calves (n = 204) of known genealogy and which had been genotyped for the AluI and DdeI markers. Our results showed significant effect (p < 0.05) between the homozygous DdeI+/DdeI+ polymorphism and the estimated breeding value for weaning weight (ESB-WW), while the AluI leucine homozygous (L/L) and leucine/valine (L/V) heterozygous polymorphisms showed no significant effect on the traits studied. The restriction sites of the two enzymes led to the formation of haplotypes which also exerted a significant effect (p < 0.05) on the ESB-WW, with the largest difference being 8.5 kg in favor of the homozygous L plus DdeI+/L plus DdeI+ genotype over the heterozygous L plus DdeI-/V plus DdeI+ genotype.