Influence of birth cohort on age of onset cluster analysis in bipolar I disorder

PURPOSE: Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database. METHODS: The database includes 4037 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, previously collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to adjust the data for country median age, and in some models, birth cohort. Model-based clustering (mixture analysis) was then performed on the age of onset data using the residuals. Clinical variables in subgroups were compared. RESULTS: There was a strong birth cohort effect. Without adjusting for the birth cohort, three subgroups were found by clustering. After adjusting for the birth cohort or when considering only those born after 1959, two subgroups were found. With results of either two or three subgroups, the youngest subgroup was more likely to have a family history of mood disorders and a first episode with depressed polarity. However, without adjusting for birth cohort (three subgroups), family history and polarity of the first episode could not be distinguished between the middle and oldest subgroups. CONCLUSION: These results using international data confirm prior findings using single country data, that there are subgroups of bipolar I disorder based on the age of onset, and that there is a birth cohort effect. Including the birth cohort adjustment altered the number and characteristics of subgroups detected when clustering by age of onset. Further investigation is needed to determine if combining both approaches will identify subgroups that are more useful for research.

Age-Specific Fertility Dynamics: Sub-Saharan African Fertility in a Global Context

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Bayesian Methods for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Mixture model with random-effects components for clustering correlated gene-expression profiles

Motivation: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. Results: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation) and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers' consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

Clustering of web users using the tensor decomposed models

We propose to use the Tensor Space Modeling (TSM) to represent and analyze the user’s web log data that consists of multiple interests and spans across multiple dimensions. Further we propose to use the decomposition factors of the Tensors for clustering the users based on similarity of search behaviour. Preliminary results show that the proposed method outperforms the traditional Vector Space Model (VSM) based clustering.

Investigation of sensitivity based load ranking with composite load model in power system

Load modeling plays an important role in power system dynamic stability assessment. One of the widely used methods in assessing load model impact on system dynamic response is through parametric sensitivity analysis. Load ranking provides an effective measure of such impact. Traditionally, load ranking is based on either static or dynamic load model alone. In this paper, composite load model based load ranking framework is proposed. It enables comprehensive investigation into load modeling impacts on system stability considering the dynamic interactions between load and system dynamics. The impact of load composition on the overall sensitivity and therefore on ranking of the load is also investigated. Dynamic simulations are performed to further elucidate the results obtained through sensitivity based load ranking approach.

A fuzzy TOPSIS based multi criteria performance measurement model for lean supply chain

Increasing global competition, rapid technological changes, advances in manufacturing and information technology and discerning customers are forcing supply chains to adopt improvement practices that enable them to deliver high quality products at a lower cost and in a shorter period of time. A lean initiative is one of the most effective approaches toward achieving this goal. In the lean improvement process, it is critical to measure current and desired performance level in order to clearly evaluate the lean implementation efforts. Many attempts have tried to measure supply chain performance incorporating both quantitative and qualitative measures but failed to provide an effective method of measuring improvements in performances for dynamic lean supply chain situations. Therefore, the necessity of appropriate measurement of lean supply chain performance has become imperative. There are many lean tools available for supply chains; however, effectiveness of a lean tool depends on the type of the product and supply chain. One tool may be highly effective for a supply chain involved in high volume products but may not be effective for low volume products. There is currently no systematic methodology available for selecting appropriate lean strategies based on the type of supply chain and market strategy This thesis develops an effective method to measure the performance of supply chain consisting of both quantitative and qualitative metrics and investigates the effects of product types and lean tool selection on the supply chain performance Supply chain performance matrices and the effects of various lean tools over performance metrics mentioned in the SCOR framework have been investigated. A lean supply chain model based on the SCOR metric framework is then developed where non- lean and lean as well as quantitative and qualitative metrics are incorporated in appropriate metrics. The values of appropriate metrics are converted into triangular fuzzy numbers using similarity rules and heuristic methods. Data have been collected from an apparel manufacturing company for multiple supply chain products and then a fuzzy based method is applied to measure the performance improvements in supply chains. Using the fuzzy TOPSIS method, which chooses an optimum alternative to maximise similarities with positive ideal solutions and to minimise similarities with negative ideal solutions, the performances of lean and non- lean supply chain situations for three different apparel products have been evaluated. To address the research questions related to effective performance evaluation method and the effects of lean tools over different types of supply chains; a conceptual framework and two hypotheses are investigated. Empirical results show that implementation of lean tools have significant effects over performance improvements in terms of time, quality and flexibility. Fuzzy TOPSIS based method developed is able to integrate multiple supply chain matrices onto a single performance measure while lean supply chain model incorporates qualitative and quantitative metrics. It can therefore effectively measure the improvements for supply chain after implementing lean tools. It is demonstrated that product types involved in the supply chain and ability to select right lean tools have significant effect on lean supply chain performance. Future study can conduct multiple case studies in different contexts.

An efficient hybrid evolutionary optimization algorithm based on PSO and SA for clustering

The K-means algorithm is one of the most popular techniques in clustering. Nevertheless, the performance of the K-means algorithm depends highly on initial cluster centers and converges to local minima. This paper proposes a hybrid evolutionary programming based clustering algorithm, called PSO-SA, by combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) and simulated annealing (SA). The basic idea is to search around the global solution by SA and to increase the information exchange among particles using a mutation operator to escape local optima. Three datasets, Iris, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Ripley’s Glass, have been considered to show the effectiveness of the proposed clustering algorithm in providing optimal clusters. The simulation results show that the PSO-SA clustering algorithm not only has a better response but also converges more quickly than the K-means, PSO, and SA algorithms.

Selective dissemination of XML documents based on genetically learned user model and Support Vector Machines

Extensible Markup Language ( XML) has emerged as a medium for interoperability over the Internet. As the number of documents published in the form of XML is increasing, there is a need for selective dissemination of XML documents based on user interests. In the proposed technique, a combination of Adaptive Genetic Algorithms and multi class Support Vector Machine ( SVM) is used to learn a user model. Based on the feedback from the users, the system automatically adapts to the user's preference and interests. The user model and a similarity metric are used for selective dissemination of a continuous stream of XML documents. Experimental evaluations performed over a wide range of XML documents, indicate that the proposed approach significantly improves the performance of the selective dissemination task, with respect to accuracy and efficiency.

Selective dissemination of XML documents based on genetically learned user model and Support Vector Machines

Extensible Markup Language ( XML) has emerged as a medium for interoperability over the Internet. As the number of documents published in the form of XML is increasing, there is a need for selective dissemination of XML documents based on user interests. In the proposed technique, a combination of Adaptive Genetic Algorithms and multi class Support Vector Machine ( SVM) is used to learn a user model. Based on the feedback from the users, the system automatically adapts to the user's preference and interests. The user model and a similarity metric are used for selective dissemination of a continuous stream of XML documents. Experimental evaluations performed over a wide range of XML documents, indicate that the proposed approach significantly improves the performance of the selective dissemination task, with respect to accuracy and efficiency.

A trust model for routing in MANETs: a cognitive agents based approach

Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) is one of the successful wireless network paradigms which offers unrestricted mobility without depending on any underlying infrastructure. MANETs have become an exciting and im- portant technology in recent years because of the rapid proliferation of variety of wireless devices, and increased use of ad hoc networks in various applications. Like any other networks, MANETs are also prone to variety of attacks majorly in routing side, most of the proposed secured routing solutions based on cryptography and authentication methods have greater overhead, which results in latency problems and resource crunch problems, especially in energy side. The successful working of these mechanisms also depends on secured key management involving a trusted third authority, which is generally difficult to implement in MANET environ-ment due to volatile topology. Designing a secured routing algorithm for MANETs which incorporates the notion of trust without maintaining any trusted third entity is an interesting research problem in recent years. This paper propose a new trust model based on cognitive reasoning,which associates the notion of trust with all the member nodes of MANETs using a novel Behaviors-Observations- Beliefs(BOB) model. These trust values are used for detec- tion and prevention of malicious and dishonest nodes while routing the data. The proposed trust model works with the DTM-DSR protocol, which involves computation of direct trust between any two nodes using cognitive knowledge. We have taken care of trust fading over time, rewards, and penalties while computing the trustworthiness of a node and also route. A simulator is developed for testing the proposed algorithm, the results of experiments shows incorporation of cognitive reasoning for computation of trust in routing effectively detects intrusions in MANET environment, and generates more reliable routes for secured routing of data.