Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Equity market integration in the Asia-Pacific region:a smooth transition analysis

We use a smooth transition logistic function to test for equity market integration in a sample of Asia-Pacific countries. This allows us to gauge the speed at which a market is becoming integrated. Of the countries we examine we find that Thailand has the fastest pace of global integration. When we examine the extent to which local integration is taking place, we find that Singapore is experiencing the fastest rise in market integration. © 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis:a study of Eastern European stock markets

This paper assesses the extent to which the equity markets of Hungary, Poland the Czech Republic and Russia have become less segmented. Using a variety of tests it is shown there has been a consistent increase in the co-movement of some Eastern European markets and developed markets. Using the variance decompositions from a vector autoregressive representation of returns it is shown that for Poland and Hungary global factors are having an increasing influence on equity returns, suggestive of increased equity market integration. In this paper we model a system of bivariate equity market correlations as a smooth transition logistic trend model in order to establish how rapidly the countries of Eastern Europe are moving away from market segmentation. We find that Hungary is the country which is becoming integrated the most quickly. © 2005 ELsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Market-level information and the diffusion of competing technologies:an exploratory analysis of the LAN industry

Market-level information diffused by print media may contribute to the legitimation of an emerging technology and thus influence the diffusion of competing technological standards. After analyzing more than 10,000 trade media abstracts from the Local Area Networks (LAN) industry published between 1981 and 2000, we found the presence of differential effects on the adoption of competing standards by two market-level information types: technology and product availability. The significance of these effects depends on the technology's order of entry and suggests that high-tech product managers should make strategic use of market-level information by appropriately focusing the content of their communications. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Employment outcomes and plant closure in a post-industrial city:an analysis of the labour market studies of MG Rover workers three years on

This paper examines how the loss of 6300 jobs from the closure of MG Rover (MGR) in the city of Birmingham (UK) in April 2005 affected the employment trajectories of ex-workers, in the context of wider structural change and efforts at urban renewal. The paper presents an analysis of a longitudinal survey of 300 ex-MGR workers, and examines to what extent the state of local labour markets and workers’ geographical mobility—as well as the effectiveness of the immediate policy response and longer-term local economic strategies—may have helped to balance the impacts of personal attributes associated with workers’ employability and their reabsorption into the labour markets. It is found that the relative buoyancy of the local economy, the success of longer-run efforts at diversification and a strong policy response and retraining initiative helped many disadvantaged workers to find new jobs in the medium term. However, the paper also highlights the unequal employment outcomes and trajectories that many lesser-skilled workers faced. It explores the policy issues arising from such closures and their aftermath, such as the need to co-ordinate responses, to retain institutional capacity, to offer high-quality training and education resources to workers and, where possible, to slow down such closure processes to enable skills to be retained and reused within the local economy.

The influence of social e-atmospherics in practice:a website content analysis perspectives from Turkey as an illustration of emerging market and France as a mature market

E-atmospherics have been often analyzed in terms of functional features, leaving its characteristics' link to social capital co-creation as a fertile research area. Prior research have demonstrated the capacity of e-atmospherics' at modifying shopping habits towards deeper engagement. Little is known on how processes and cues emerging from the social aspects of lifestyle influence purchasing behavior. The anatomy of social dimension and ICT is the focus of this research, where attention is devoted to unpack the meanings and type of online mundane social capital creation. Taking a cross-product/services approach to better investigate social construction impact, our approach also involves both an emerging and a mature market where exploratory content analysis of landing page are done on Turkish and French web sites, respectively. We contend that by comprehending social capital, daily micro practices, habits and routine, a better and deeper understanding on e-atmospherics incumbent and potential effects on its multi-national e-customer will be acquired.

Auto plant closures, policy responses and labour market outcomes:a comparison of MG Rover in the UK and Mitsubishi in Australia

This paper provides a preliminary comparative longitudinal analysis of the impact on workers made redundant due to the closure of the Mitsubishi plant in Adelaide and the MG Rover plant in Birmingham. Longitudinal surveys of ex-workers from both firms were undertaken over a 12-month period in order to assess the process of labour market adjustment. In the Mitsubishi case, given the skills shortage the state of Adelaide was facing, together with the considerable growth in mining and defence industries, it would have been more appropriate if policy intervention had been redirected to further training or re-skilling opportunities for redundant workers. This opportunity was effectively missed and as a result more workers left the workforce, most notably for retirement, than could have otherwise been the case. The MG Rover case was seen as a more successful example of policy intervention, with greater funding assistance available and targeted support available, and with more emphasis on re-training needs to assist adjustment. However, despite the assistance offered and the rhetoric of successful adjustment in both cases, the majority of workers have nevertheless experienced deterioration in their circumstances particularly in the Australian case where casual and part-time work were often the only work that could be obtained. Even in the UK case, where more funding assistance was offered, a majority of workers reported a decline in earnings and a rise in job insecurity. This suggests that a reliance on the flexible labour market is insufficient to promote adjustment, and that more active policy intervention is needed especially in regard to further up-skilling.

UK social housing and housing market in England:a statistical review and trends

Around 80% of the 63 million people in the UK live in urban areas where demand for affordable housing is highest. Supply of new dwellings is a long way short of demand and with an average annual replacement rate of 0.5% more than 80% of the existing residential housing stock will still be in use by 2050. A high proportion of owner-occupiers, a weak private rental sector and lack of sustainable financing models render England’s housing market one of the least responsive in the developed world. As an exploratory research the purpose of this paper is to examine the provision of social housing in the United Kingdom with a particular focus on England, and to set out implications for housing associations delivering sustainable community development. The paper is based on an analysis of historical data series (Census data), current macro-economic data and population projections to 2033. The paper identifies a chronic undersupply of affordable housing in England which is likely to be exacerbated by demographic development, changes in household composition and reduced availability of finance to develop new homes. Based on the housing market trends analysed in this paper opportunities are identified for policy makers to remove barriers to the delivery of new affordable homes and for social housing providers to evolve their business models by taking a wider role in sustainable community development.