Composición de los hogares y niveles de gastos en bienes y servicios básicos en el Departamento del Cauca, Colombia

Éste documento tiene como objetivo caracterizar los hogares rurales y urbanos del departamento del Cauca, Colombia y clasificarlos según la tipología y el ciclo de vida del hogar, para establecer su relación con los niveles de gasto mínimo en bienes básicos, es decir, con los que definen los umbrales críticos de pobreza. Para tal efecto, se utiliza la Encuesta de Calidad de Vida de 2011 y se estiman modelos de análisis de varianza multifactoriales. Los resultados muestran, entre otros, que el tipo de hogar más frecuente, tanto en el área rural como la urbana, es el nuclear con hijos y los gastos mínimos básicos, en general, son en alimentos, vivienda y salud. Los rubros de educación y transporte presentan niveles más altos de consumo en los hogares urbanos que en los rurales..

Model morphisms (MoMo) to enable language independent information models and interoperable business networks

MSc. Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering

Polyglutamine diseases (PolyQ): construction and characterization of yeast models

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Dynamic models of viral replication and latency.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: HIV targets primary CD4(+) T cells. The virus depends on the physiological state of its target cells for efficient replication, and, in turn, viral infection perturbs the cellular state significantly. Identifying the virus-host interactions that drive these dynamic changes is important for a better understanding of viral pathogenesis and persistence. The present review focuses on experimental and computational approaches to study the dynamics of viral replication and latency. RECENT FINDINGS: It was recently shown that only a fraction of the inducible latently infected reservoirs are successfully induced upon stimulation in ex-vivo models while additional rounds of stimulation make allowance for reactivation of more latently infected cells. This highlights the potential role of treatment duration and timing as important factors for successful reactivation of latently infected cells. The dynamics of HIV productive infection and latency have been investigated using transcriptome and proteome data. The cellular activation state has shown to be a major determinant of viral reactivation success. Mathematical models of latency have been used to explore the dynamics of the latent viral reservoir decay. SUMMARY: Timing is an important component of biological interactions. Temporal analyses covering aspects of viral life cycle are essential for gathering a comprehensive picture of HIV interaction with the host cell and untangling the complexity of latency. Understanding the dynamic changes tipping the balance between success and failure of HIV particle production might be key to eradicate the viral reservoir.

Hepatitis C virus infection: in vivo and in vitro models.

Major advances in the understanding of the molecular biology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) have been made recently. While the chimpanzee is the only established animal model of HCV infection, several in vivo and in vitro models have been established that allow us to study various aspects of the viral life cycle. In particular, the replicon system and the production of recombinant infectious virions revolutionized the investigation of HCV-RNA replication and rendered all steps of the viral life cycle, including entry and release of viral particles, amenable to systematic analysis. In the following we will review the different in vivo and in vitro models of HCV infection.

Integration of existing military capability models into the Comprehensive Capability Meta-model

Abstract—This paper discusses existing military capability models and proposes a comprehensive capability meta-model (CCMM) which unites the existing capability models into an integrated and hierarchical whole. The Zachman Framework for Enterprise Architecture is used as a structure for the CCMM. The CCMM takes into account the abstraction level, the primary area of application, stakeholders, intrinsic process, and life cycle considerations of each existing capability model, and shows how the models relate to each other. The validity of the CCMM was verified through a survey of subject matter experts. The results suggest that the CCMM is of practical value to various capability stakeholders in many ways, such as helping to improve communication between the different capability communities.

Evidencing and Sharing Value with Decision Making Models in an Industrial Maintenance Network

The objective of this thesis is to concretize the potential benefits that the industrial maintenance case network could achieve through using the value-based life-cycle model and the flexible asset management model. It is also inspected what factors prevent value creation and sharing in the maintenance contract practices of the case network. This thesis is a case study which utilizes modelling. Four scenarios were developed to demonstrate value creation in the future. The data was partly provided by the collaborating company, partly gathered from public financial statement information. The results indicate that value has been created through the past maintenance of the collaborating company’s rod mill and that profitability of the collaborating company has been mostly on satisfactory level during the past few years. Potential value might be created by increasing the share of proactive maintenance of the rod mill in the future. Profitability of the network could be improved in the future through flexible asset management operations. The main obstacle for value creation and sharing seems to be the lack of sufficient trust between the network members.

New Architectural Models for Visibly Controllable Computing: The Relevance of Dynamic Object Oriented Architectures and Plan Based Computing Models

Traditionally, we've focussed on the question of how to make a system easy to code the first time, or perhaps on how to ease the system's continued evolution. But if we look at life cycle costs, then we must conclude that the important question is how to make a system easy to operate. To do this we need to make it easy for the operators to see what's going on and to then manipulate the system so that it does what it is supposed to. This is a radically different criterion for success. What makes a computer system visible and controllable? This is a difficult question, but it's clear that today's modern operating systems with nearly 50 million source lines of code are neither. Strikingly, the MIT Lisp Machine and its commercial successors provided almost the same functionality as today's mainstream sytsems, but with only 1 Million lines of code. This paper is a retrospective examination of the features of the Lisp Machine hardware and software system. Our key claim is that by building the Object Abstraction into the lowest tiers of the system, great synergy and clarity were obtained. It is our hope that this is a lesson that can impact tomorrow's designs. We also speculate on how the spirit of the Lisp Machine could be extended to include a comprehensive access control model and how new layers of abstraction could further enrich this model.

L'evolució dels models de turisme litoral: el Regne Unit, la Costa brava i Cuba

La tesi es centra en una anàlisi prèvia de les implicacions de la teoria del cicle de vida aplicada a les destinacions turístiques pel geògraf canadenc Richard W. Butler (1982) i en un estudi del significat de l'aparició del postmodernisme i les seves repercussions en el turisme, a la vegada que es resegueix la història que ha fet possible l'aparició del turisme massificat de sol i platja. Tot això és la base teòrica imprescindible per poder estudiar empíricament les destinacions de Saltburn (Regne Unit), l'Estartit (Costa Brava) i Cayo Coco (Cuba), utilitzant el cicle de vida per escriure la seva història i veure les polítiques de desenvolupament i regeneració turística que s'han seguit i si aquestes es poden qualificar de postfordistes. La principal conclusió és que el concepte del cicle de vida es limita a ser una eina de diagnòstic a posteriori. El cicle de vida, com a instrument prescriptiu, no serveix. Es específic per a cada destinació, amb unes etapes i punts d'inflexió que només es poden establir en restrospectiva. El cicle de vida és una eina descriptiva molt útil per entendre l'evolució de les destinacions turístiques i els seus mercats, però vigilant de no caure en falses exploracions o perillosos determinismes.

Factors influencing anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake in the North Atlantic in models of the ocean carbon cycle

The uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic is investigated using different configurations of ocean general circulation/carbon cycle models. We investigate how different representations of the ocean physics in the models, which represent the range of models currently in use, affect the evolution of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic. The buffer effect of the ocean carbon system would be expected to reduce ocean CO2 uptake as the ocean absorbs increasing amounts of CO2. We find that the strength of the buffer effect is very dependent on the model ocean state, as it affects both the magnitude and timing of the changes in uptake. The timescale over which uptake of CO2 in the North Atlantic drops to below preindustrial levels is particularly sensitive to the ocean state which sets the degree of buffering; it is less sensitive to the choice of atmospheric CO2 forcing scenario. Neglecting physical climate change effects, North Atlantic CO2 uptake drops below preindustrial levels between 50 and 300 years after stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in different model configurations. Storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic varies much less among the different model configurations, as differences in ocean transport of dissolved inorganic carbon and uptake of CO2 compensate each other. This supports the idea that measured inventories of anthropogenic carbon in the real ocean cannot be used to constrain the surface uptake. Including physical climate change effects reduces anthropogenic CO2 uptake and storage in the North Atlantic further, due to the combined effects of surface warming, increased freshwater input, and a slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation. The timescale over which North Atlantic CO2 uptake drops to below preindustrial levels is reduced by about one-third, leading to an estimate of this timescale for the real world of about 50 years after the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2. In the climate change experiment, a shallowing of the mixed layer depths in the North Atlantic results in a significant reduction in primary production, reducing the potential role for biology in drawing down anthropogenic CO2.

Case study on the whole life carbon cycle in buildings

Global temperatures are expected to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4oC this century, depending, to a large extent, on the amount of carbon we emit to the atmosphere from now onwards. This warming is expected to have very negative effects on many peoples and ecosystems and, therefore, minimising our carbon emissions is a priority. Buildings are estimated to be responsible for around 50% of carbon emissions in the UK. Potential reductions involve both operational emissions, produced during use, and embodied emissions, produced during manufacture of materials and components, and during construction, refurbishments and demolition. To date the major effort has focused on reducing the, apparently, larger operational element, which is more readily quantifiable and reduction measures are relatively straightforward to identify and implement. Various studies have compared the magnitude of embodied and operational emissions, but have shown considerable variation in the relative values. This illustrates the difficulties in quantifying embodied, as it requires a detailed knowledge of the processes involved in the different life cycle phases, and requires the use of consistent system boundaries. However, other studies have established the interaction between operational and embodied, which demonstrates the importance of considering both elements together in order to maximise potential reductions. This is borne out in statements from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and The Low Carbon Construction Innovation and Growth Team of the UK Government. In terms of meeting the 2020 and 2050 timeframes for carbon reductions it appears to be equally, if not more, important to consider early embodied carbon reductions, rather than just future operational reductions. Future decarbonisation of energy supply and more efficient lighting and M&E equipment installed in future refits is likely to significantly reduce operational emissions, lending further weight to this argument. A method of discounting to evaluate the present value of future carbon emissions would allow more realistic comparisons to be made on the relative importance of the embodied and operational elements. This paper describes the results of case studies on carbon emissions over the whole lifecycle of three buildings in the UK, compares four available software packages for determining embodied carbon and suggests a method of carbon discounting to obtain present values for future emissions. These form the initial stages of a research project aimed at producing information on embodied carbon for different types of building, components and forms of construction, in a simplified form, which can be readily used by building designers in optimising building design in terms of minimising overall carbon emissions. Keywords: Embodied carbon; carbon emission; building; operational carbon.

The diurnal cycle in the tropics

A global archive of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.58 latitude–longitude grid) window (11–12 mm) brightness temperature (Tb) data from multiple satellites is being developed by the European Union Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS) project. It has been used to construct a climatology of the diurnal cycle in convection, cloudiness, and surface temperature for all regions of the Tropics. An example of the application of the climatology to the evaluation of the climate version of the U.K. Met. Office Unified Model (UM), version HadAM3, is presented. The characteristics of the diurnal cycle described by the CLAUS data agree with previous observational studies, demonstrating the universality of the characteristics of the diurnal cycle for land versus ocean, clear sky versus convective regimes. It is shown that oceanic deep convection tends to reach its maximum in the early morning. Continental convection generally peaks in the evening, although there are interesting regional variations, indicative of the effects of complex land–sea and mountain–valley breezes, as well as the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems. A striking result from the analysis of the CLAUS data has been the extent to which the strong diurnal signal over land is spread out over the adjacent oceans, probably through gravity waves of varying depths. These coherent signals can be seen for several hundred kilometers and in some instances, such as over the Bay of Bengal, can lead to substantial diurnal variations in convection and precipitation. The example of the use of the CLAUS data in the evaluation of the Met. Office UM has demonstrated that the model has considerable difficulty in capturing the observed phase of the diurnal cycle in convection, which suggests some fundamental difficulties in the model’s physical parameterizations. Analysis of the diurnal cycle represents a powerful tool for identifying and correcting model deficiencies.

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.