Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

How are "teaching the teachers" courses in evidence based medicine evaluated? A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Teaching of evidence-based medicine (EBM) has become widespread in medical education. Teaching the teachers (TTT) courses address the increased teaching demand and the need to improve effectiveness of EBM teaching. We conducted a systematic review of assessment tools for EBM TTT courses.To summarise and appraise existing assessment methods for teaching the teachers courses in EBM by a systematic review. METHODS: We searched PubMed, BioMed, EmBase, Cochrane and Eric databases without language restrictions and included articles that assessed its participants. Study selection and data extraction were conducted independently by two reviewers. RESULTS: Of 1230 potentially relevant studies, five papers met the selection criteria. There were no specific assessment tools for evaluating effectiveness of EBM TTT courses. Some of the material available might be useful in initiating the development of such an assessment tool. CONCLUSION: There is a need for the development of educationally sound assessment tools for teaching the teachers courses in EBM, without which it would be impossible to ascertain if such courses have the desired effect.

Adaptive learning in models with lagged variables

In this work I study the stability of the dynamics generated by adaptivelearning processes in intertemporal economies with lagged variables. Iprove that determinacy of the steady state is a necessary condition for the convergence of the learning dynamics and I show that the reciprocal is not true characterizing the economies where convergence holds. In the case of existence of cycles I show that there is not, in general, a relationship between determinacy and convergence of the learning process to the cycle. I also analyze the expectational stability of these equilibria.

Learning in Digital Media: the legacy of McLuhan and his Impact on Formal Education

This paper describes a bibliographic analysis of the vision of Marshal McLuhan and the vision adopted by diverse current authors regarding the use of new interactive learning technologies. The paper also analyzes the transformation that will have to take place in the formal surroundings of education in order to improve their social function. The main points of view and contributions made by diverse authors are discussed. It is important that all actors involved in the educational process take in consideration these contributions in order to be ready for future changes.

Effects of inbreeding on aversive learning in Drosophila.

Inbreeding adversely affects life history traits as well as various other fitness-related traits, but its effect on cognitive traits remains largely unexplored, despite their importance to fitness of many animals under natural conditions. We studied the effects of inbreeding on aversive learning (avoidance of an odour previously associated with mechanical shock) in multiple inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster derived from a natural population through up to 12 generations of sib mating. Whereas the strongly inbred lines after 12 generations of inbreeding (0.75<F<0.93) consistently showed reduced egg-to-adult viability (on average by 28%), the reduction in learning performance varied among assays (average=18% reduction), being most pronounced for intermediate conditioning intensity. Furthermore, moderately inbred lines (F=0.38) showed no detectable decline in learning performance, but still had reduced egg-to-adult viability, which indicates that overall inbreeding effects on learning are mild. Learning performance varied among strongly inbred lines, indicating the presence of segregating variance for learning in the base population. However, the learning performance of some inbred lines matched that of outbred flies, supporting the dominance rather than the overdominance model of inbreeding depression for this trait. Across the inbred lines, learning performance was positively correlated with the egg-to-adult viability. This positive genetic correlation contradicts a trade-off observed in previous selection experiments and suggests that much of the genetic variation for learning is owing to pleiotropic effects of genes affecting functions related to survival. These results suggest that genetic variation that affects learning specifically (rather than pleiotropically through general physiological condition) is either low or mostly due to alleles with additive (semi-dominant) effects.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Entropy change of martensitic transformations in Cu-based shape-memory alloys

We have investigated the different contributions to the entropy change at the martensitic transition of different families of Cu-based shape-memory alloys. The total entropy change has been obtained through calorimetric measurements. By measuring the evolution of the magnetic susceptibility with temperature, the entropy change associated with conduction electrons has been evaluated. The contribution of the anharmonic vibrations of the lattice has also been estimated using various parameters associated with the anharmonic behavior of these alloys, collected from the literature. The results found in the present work have been compared to values published for the martensitic transition of group-IV metals. For Cu-based alloys, both electron and anharmonic contributions have been shown to be much smaller than the overall entropy change. This finding demonstrates that the harmonic vibrations of the lattice are the most relevant contribution to the stability of the bcc phase in Cu-based alloys.

Influence of configurational atomic order on the relative stability of bcc and close-packed structures in Cu-based alloys

We present a study of the influence of atomic order on the relative stability of the bcc and the 18R martensitic structures in a Cu2.96Al0.92Be0.12 crystal. Calorimetric measurements have shown that disorder increases the stability of the 18R phase, contrary to what happens in Cu-Zn-Al alloys for which it is the bcc phase that is stabilized by disordering the system. This different behavior has been explained in terms of a model recently reported. We have also proved that the entropy change at the martensitic transition is independent of the state of atomic order of the crystal, as predicted theoretically. Our results suggest that differences in the vibrational spectrum of the crystal due to different states of atomic order must be equal in the bcc and in the close-packed phases.

Can routine offering of influenza vaccination in office-based settings reduce racial and ethnic disparities in adult influenza vaccination?

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination remains below the federally targeted levels outlined in Healthy People 2020. Compared to non-Hispanic whites, racial and ethnic minorities are less likely to be vaccinated for influenza, despite being at increased risk for influenza-related complications and death. Also, vaccinated minorities are more likely to receive influenza vaccinations in office-based settings and less likely to use non-medical vaccination locations compared to non-Hispanic white vaccine users. OBJECTIVE: To assess the number of "missed opportunities" for influenza vaccination in office-based settings by race and ethnicity and the magnitude of potential vaccine uptake and reductions in racial and ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination if these "missed opportunities" were eliminated. DESIGN: National cross-sectional Internet survey administered between March 4 and March 14, 2010 in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Non-Hispanic black, Hispanic and non-Hispanic white adults living in the United States (N = 3,418). MAIN MEASURES: We collected data on influenza vaccination, frequency and timing of healthcare visits, and self-reported compliance with a potential provider recommendation for vaccination during the 2009-2010 influenza season. "Missed opportunities" for seasonal influenza vaccination in office-based settings were defined as the number of unvaccinated respondents who reported at least one healthcare visit in the Fall and Winter of 2009-2010 and indicated their willingness to get vaccinated if a healthcare provider strongly recommended it. "Potential vaccine uptake" was defined as the sum of actual vaccine uptake and "missed opportunities." KEY RESULTS: The frequency of "missed opportunities" for influenza vaccination in office-based settings was significantly higher among racial and ethnic minorities than non-Hispanic whites. Eliminating these "missed opportunities" could have cut racial and ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination by roughly one half. CONCLUSIONS: Improved office-based practices regarding influenza vaccination could significantly impact Healthy People 2020 goals by increasing influenza vaccine uptake and reducing corresponding racial and ethnic disparities.