Layered dynamic probabilistic networks for spatio-temporal modelling

In applications such as tracking and surveillance in large spatial environments, there is a need for representing dynamic and noisy data and at the same time dealing with them at different levels of detail. In the spatial domain, there has been work dealing with these two issues separately, however, there is no existing common framework for dealing with both of them. In this paper, we propose a new representation framework called the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN), capable of handling uncertainty and representing spatial data at various levels of detail. The framework is thus particularly suited to applications in wide-area environments which are characterised by large region size, complex spatial layout and multiple sensors/cameras. For example, a building has three levels: entry/exit to the building, entry/exit between rooms and moving within rooms. To avoid the problem of a relatively large state space associated with a large spatial environment, the LDPN explicitly encodes the hierarchy of connected spatial locations, making it scalable to the size of the environment being modelled. There are three main advantages of the LDPN. First, the reduction in state space makes it suitable for dealing with wide area surveillance involving multiple sensors. Second, it offers a hierarchy of intervals for indexing temporal data. Lastly, the explicit representation of intermediate sub-goals allows for the extension of the framework to easily represent group interactions by allowing coupling between sub-goal layers of different individuals or objects. We describe an adaptation of the likelihood sampling inference scheme for the LDPN, and illustrate its use in a hypothetical surveillance scenario.

Predators select against high growth rates and risk-taking behaviour in domestic trout populations

Domesticated (farm) salmonid fishes display an increased willingness to accept risk while foraging, and achieve high growth rates not observed in nature. Theory predicts that elevated growth rates in domestic salmonids will result in greater risk–taking to access abundant food, but low survival in the presence of predators. In replicated whole–lake experiments, we observed that domestic trout (selected for high growth rates) took greater risks while foraging and grew faster than a wild strain. However, survival consequences for greater growth rates depended upon the predation environment. Domestic trout experienced greater survival when risk was low, but lower survival when risk was high. This suggests that animals with high intrinsic growth rates are selected against in populations with abundant predators, explaining the absence of such phenotypes in nature. This is, to our knowledge, the first large–scale field experiment to directly test this theory and simultaneously quantify the initial invasibility of domestic salmonid strains that escape into the wild from aquaculture operations, and the ecological conditions affecting their survival.

Contextually Learnt Detection of Unusual Motion-Based Behaviour in Crowded Public Spaces

In this paper we are interested in analyzing behaviour in crowded publicplaces at the level of holistic motion. Our aim is to learn, without user input, strong scene priors or labelled data, the scope of ‘‘normal behaviour’’ for a particular scene and thus alert to novelty in unseen footage. The first contribution is a low-level motion model based on what we term tracklet primitives, which are scenespecific elementary motions. We propose a clustering-based algorithm for tracklet estimation from local approximations to tracks of appearance features. This is followed by two methods for motion novelty inference from tracklet primitives: (a) an approach based on a non-hierarchial ensemble of Markov chains as a means of capturing behavioural characteristics at different scales, and (b) a more flexible alternative which exhibits a higher generalizing power by accounting for constraints introduced by intentionality and goal-oriented planning of human motion in a particular scene. Evaluated on a 2 h long video of a busy city marketplace, both algorithms are shown to be successful at inferring unusual behaviour, the latter model achieving better performance for novelties at a larger spatial scale.

Migratory animals couple biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide

Animal migrations span the globe, involving immense numbers of individuals from a wide range of taxa. Migrants transport nutrients, energy, and other organisms as they forage and are preyed upon throughout their journeys. These highly predictable, pulsed movements across large spatial scales render migration a potentially powerful yet underappreciated dimension of biodiversity that is intimately embedded within resident communities. We review examples from across the animal kingdom to distill fundamental processes by which migratory animals influence communities and ecosystems, demonstrating that they can uniquely alter energy flow, food-web topology and stability, trophic cascades, and the structure of metacommunities. Given the potential for migration to alter ecological networks worldwide, we suggest an integrative framework through which community dynamics and ecosystem functioning may explicitly consider animal migrations.

Simulação computacional da interação fluido-estrutura em bombas de cavidades progressivas

The pumping through progressing cavities system has been more and more employed in the petroleum industry. This occurs because of its capacity of elevation of highly viscous oils or fluids with great concentration of sand or other solid particles. A Progressing Cavity Pump (PCP) consists, basically, of a rotor - a metallic device similar to an eccentric screw, and a stator - a steel tube internally covered by a double helix, which may be rigid or deformable/elastomeric. In general, it is submitted to a combination of well pressure with the pressure generated by the pumping process itself. In elastomeric PCPs, this combined effort compresses the stator and generates, or enlarges, the clearance existing between the rotor and the stator, thus reducing the closing effect between their cavities. Such opening of the sealing region produces what is known as fluid slip or slippage, reducing the efficiency of the PCP pumping system. Therefore, this research aims to develop a transient three-dimensional computational model that, based on single-lobe PCP kinematics, is able to simulate the fluid-structure interaction that occurs in the interior of metallic and elastomeric PCPs. The main goal is to evaluate the dynamic characteristics of PCP s efficiency based on detailed and instantaneous information of velocity, pressure and deformation fields in their interior. To reach these goals (development and use of the model), it was also necessary the development of a methodology for generation of dynamic, mobile and deformable, computational meshes representing fluid and structural regions of a PCP. This additional intermediary step has been characterized as the biggest challenge for the elaboration and running of the computational model due to the complex kinematic and critical geometry of this type of pump (different helix angles between rotor and stator as well as large length scale aspect ratios). The processes of dynamic generation of meshes and of simultaneous evaluation of the deformations suffered by the elastomer are fulfilled through subroutines written in Fortan 90 language that dynamically interact with the CFX/ANSYS fluid dynamic software. Since a structural elastic linear model is employed to evaluate elastomer deformations, it is not necessary to use any CAE package for structural analysis. However, an initial proposal for dynamic simulation using hyperelastic models through ANSYS software is also presented in this research. Validation of the results produced with the present methodology (mesh generation, flow simulation in metallic PCPs and simulation of fluid-structure interaction in elastomeric PCPs) is obtained through comparison with experimental results reported by the literature. It is expected that the development and application of such a computational model may provide better details of the dynamics of the flow within metallic and elastomeric PCPs, so that better control systems may be implemented in the artificial elevation area by PCP

Evolução morfotectônica do maciço estrutural pereiro, província Borborema

The Northeast relief was described by the Pediplanation Model. This action discards the theoretical basis of post-Cretaceous tectonic evolution of the landscape. Through this model the Massif Pereiro - MP, Borborema Province, was established as part of the Tablelands Area Residual Sertanejos. The present work aims to establish the post- Cretaceous morphotectonic evolution of the MP by geomorphological and geological mapping using Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and dating of sediments by Single Aliquot Regenerative-dose (SAR). The MP is contained in the core semi-arid, annual precipitation of 600-800 mm / year. The MP is NE-SW, is limited by Shear Zone Jaguaribe (ZCJ) and Portalegre Shear Zone (ZCPa), the same attitude, and crossed by several other shear zones. These shear zones show evidence of brittle Cenozoic reactivation, mostly as normal faults and shallow crustal level. The Quaternary sedimentation around the MP focuses on fault escarpments in a general pattern cascade, where ages decrease from the summits of the steep foothills. The ages of 51 sediment samples indicate a correlation with global climate following pulses: Last Interestadial-UI, the Last Glacial Maximum - LGM and the transition Pleistocene / Holocene, while the latter focus on 18 of 51 samples dated. This study also finds evidence of a new quaternary basin, here called Merejo Basin. Through these results it is concluded that no evidence of post-Cretaceous tectonic evolution of morphological MP, as their retreat along the fault scarps, invariably following the trend of the shear zones. The erosion of cliffs in large time scale is controlled by weakness zones generated by faults on the other hand the erosion of cliffs in short time, with the formation of deposits and colluvial horizons pedogenizados, has climate control. It was also found that in the study area there is a preponderance of past and current tectonic erosion processes on the morphological evolution

Diet of invertebrates sampled in leaf-bags incubated in a tropical headwater stream

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Controlling factors of benthic macroinvertebrates distribution in a small tropical pond, lateral to the Paranapanema River (São Paulo, Brazil).

The aim of the present study was to examine the benthic fauna in a marginal pond lateral to the Paranapanema River and to identify the main controlling factors of its distribution. Considering the small size of the lacustrine ecosystem, we expected that seasonal variations of the benthic community attributes are more important than spatial variations; Methods: Two samplings, one in March and another in August, were carried out at nine sites in the pond. Sediment samples were obtained through a Van Veen grab for invertebrate sorting, granulometric analysis, and for quantification of organic matter in sediment. Other abiotic factors were measured, such as water transparency, dissolved oxygen, pH, electric conductivity, temperature, and depth of sediment sampling sites. Regarding the comparative analysis at spatial scale, no significant variations in density of the benthic invertebrate community were found. Results: In relation to the studied abiotic factors, only depth presented significant differences among sampling sites; All the measured environmental parameters presented significant differences among sampling months, except depth and the physical and chemical characteristics of the sediment. The abundance of Chaoboridae and Chironomidae was the unique attribute with a significant difference in comparing the two months. A higher abundance of taxa occurred in August, especially for Oligochaeta, Nematoda, Chaoboridae, and Chironomidae; Conclusions: Because of the low structural complexity of the studied pond, we concluded that the changes in benthic macroinvertebrate community attributes were mainly due to seasonal effects.

Reproductive phenology of coastal plain Atlantic forest vegetation: comparisons from seashore to foothills

The diversity of tropical forest plant phenology has called the attention of researchers for a long time. We continue investigating the factors that drive phenological diversity on a wide scale, but we are unaware of the variation of plant reproductive phenology at a fine spatial scale despite the high spatial variation in species composition and abundance in tropical rainforests. We addressed fine scale variability by investigating the reproductive phenology of three contiguous vegetations across the Atlantic rainforest coastal plain in Southeastern Brazil. We asked whether the vegetations differed in composition and abundance of species, the microenvironmental conditions and the reproductive phenology, and how their phenology is related to regional and local microenvironmental factors. The study was conducted from September 2007 to August 2009 at three contiguous sites: (1) seashore dominated by scrub vegetation, (2) intermediary covered by restinga forest and (3) foothills covered by restinga pre-montane transitional forest. We conducted the microenvironmental, plant and phenological survey within 30 transects of 25 mx4 m (10 per site). We detected significant differences in floristic, microenvironment and reproductive phenology among the three vegetations. The microenvironment determines the spatial diversity observed in the structure and composition of the flora, which in turn determines the distinctive flowering and fruiting peaks of each vegetation (phenological diversity). There was an exchange of species providing flowers and fruits across the vegetation complex. We conclude that plant reproductive patterns as described in most phenological studies (without concern about the microenvironmental variation) may conceal the fine scale temporal phenological diversity of highly diverse tropical vegetation. This phenological diversity should be taken into account when generating sensor-derived phenologies and when trying to understand tropical vegetation responses to environmental changes.

Vegetation and environmental heterogeneity relationships in a Neotropical swamp forest in southeastern Brazil (Itirapina, SP)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Geochemical characterization of heavy metal contaminated area using multivariate factorial kriging

This paper describes a geostatistical method, known as factorial kriging analysis, which is well suited for analyzing multivariate spatial information. The method involves multivariate variogram modeling, principal component analysis, and cokriging. It uses several separate correlation structures, each corresponding to a specific spatial scale, and yields a set of regionalized factors summarizing the main features of the data for each spatial scale. This method is applied to an area of high manganese-ore mining activity in Amapa State, North Brazil. Two scales of spatial variation (0.33 and 2.0 km) are identified and interpreted. The results indicate that, for the short-range structure, manganese, arsenic, iron, and cadmium are associated with human activities due to the mining work, while for the long-range structure, the high aluminum, selenium, copper, and lead concentrations, seem to be related to the natural environment. At each scale, the correlation structure is analyzed, and regionalized factors are estimated by cokriging and then mapped.

Tamanho de amostra para a estimativa das médias decendiais de radiação solar global no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Com o objetivo de verificar a variabilidade temporal e espacial do tamanho de amostra da radiação solar global média decendial, de 22 locais do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizaram-se séries de dados de radiação solar global do período de 1956 a 2003. Determinou-se o tamanho de amostra da radiação solar global média decendial em cada decêndio e local e agruparam-se os decêndios e os locais pelo método hierárquico 'vizinho mais distante'. Há variabilidade do tamanho de amostra (número de anos) para a estimativa da radiação solar global média decendial no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no tempo e no espaço. Maior tamanho é necessário nos decêndios dos meses de junho, julho, agosto e setembro em relação aos outros meses. Para os locais e decêndios estudados, 30 anos de observações são suficientes para estimar a média (µ) de radiação solar global média decendial, para um erro de estimação igual a 12.3%, com coeficiente de confiança de 95%.

Food web structure in a tropical stream ecosystem

This study investigated the structure and properties of a tropical stream food web in a small spatial scale, characterizing its planktonic, epiphytic and benthic compartments. The study was carried out in the Potreirinho Creek, a second-order stream located in the south-east of Brazil. Some attributes of the three subwebs and of the conglomerate food web, composed by the trophic links of the three compartments plus the fish species, were determined. Among compartments, the food webs showed considerable variation in structure. The epiphytic food web was consistently more complex than the planktonic and benthic webs. The values of number of species, number of links and maximum food chain length were significantly higher in the epiphytic compartment than in the other two. Otherwise, the connectance was significantly lower in epiphyton. The significant differences of most food web parameters were determined by the increase in the number of trophic species, represented mainly by basal and intermediate species. High species richness, detritus-based system and high degree of omnivory characterized the stream food web studied. The aquatic macrophytes probably provide a substratum more stable and structurally complex than the sediment. We suggest that the greater species richness and trophic complexity in the epiphytic subweb might be due to the higher degree of habitat complexity supported by macrophyte substrate. Despite differences observed in the structure of the three subwebs, they are highly connected by trophic interactions, mainly by fishes. The high degree of fish omnivory associated with their movements at different spatial scales suggests that these animals have a significant role in the food web dynamic of Potreirinho Creek. This interface between macrophytes and the interconnections resultant from fish foraging, diluted the compartmentalization of the Potreirinho food web.