Influence of land use changes on water chemistry in streams in the State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil

Streamwater is affected by several processes in the watershed including anthropogenic activities that result in changes in water quality as well as in the functioning of these stream ecosystems. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate the concentration of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, Cl-, SO4(2-), PO4(3-), HCO3-) in streams in the state of São Paulo (southeast Brazil). The sampling sites are located at undisturbed (ombrophilus dense forest, semideciduous forest and savanna - cerrado) and disturbed areas (pasture, urbanization and sugar cane crops). Streamwater chemistry varied according to land use change and, in general, was higher in disturbed sites. Streams located in undisturbed sites at Ribeira de Iguape/Alto Paranapanema watershed (streams 1, 2 and 3) seem to be regulated by soil characteristics, as the disturbed streams located at the same watershed covered by pasture (stream 7) showed high concentration for the most of the variables. Exception to streams located at Pontal do Paranapanema watershed where both disturbed (stream 8) and undisturbed streams (stream 4 and 5) presented similar patterns for almost all variables measured.

El Niño southern oscillation and its effect on fog oases along the Peruvian and Chilean coastal deserts

Fog oases, locally named Lomas, are distributed in a fragmented way along the western coast of Chile and Peru (South America) between ~6°S and 30°S following an altitudinal gradient determined by a fog layer. This fragmentation has been attributed to the hyper aridity of the desert. However, periodically climatic events influence the ‘normal seasonality’ of this ecosystem through a higher than average water input that triggers plant responses (e.g. primary productivity and phenology). The impact of the climatic oscillation may vary according to the season (wet/dry). This thesis evaluates the potential effect of climate oscillations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the analysis of vegetation of this ecosystem following different approaches: Chapters two and three show the analysis of fog oasis along the Peruvian and Chilean deserts. The objectives are: 1) to explain the floristic connection of fog oases analysing their taxa composition differences and the phylogenetic affinities among them, 2) to explore the climate variables related to ENSO which likely affect fog production, and the responses of Lomas vegetation (composition, productivity, distribution) to climate patterns during ENSO events. Chapters four and five describe a fog-oasis in southern Peru during the 2008-2010 period. The objectives are: 3) to describe and create a new vegetation map of the Lomas vegetation using remote sensing analysis supported by field survey data, and 4) to identify the vegetation change during the dry season. The first part of our results show that: 1) there are three significantly different groups of Lomas (Northern Peru, Southern Peru, and Chile) with a significant phylogenetic divergence among them. The species composition reveals a latitudinal gradient of plant assemblages. The species origin, growth-forms typologies, and geographic position also reinforce the differences among groups. 2) Contradictory results have emerged from studies of low-cloud anomalies and the fog-collection during El Niño (EN). EN increases water availability in fog oases when fog should be less frequent due to the reduction of low-clouds amount and stratocumulus. Because a minor role of fog during EN is expected, it is likely that measurements of fog-water collection during EN are considering drizzle and fog at the same time. Although recent studies on fog oases have shown some relationship with the ENSO, responses of vegetation have been largely based on descriptive data, the absence of large temporal records limit the establishment of a direct relationship with climatic oscillations. The second part of the results show that: 3) five different classes of different spectral values correspond to the main land cover of Lomas using a Vegetation Index (VI). The study case is characterised by shrubs and trees with variable cover (dense, semi-dense and open). A secondary area is covered by small shrubs where the dominant tree species is not present. The cacti area and the old terraces with open vegetation were not identified with the VI. Agriculture is present in the area. Finally, 4) contrary to the dry season of 2008 and 2009 years, a higher VI was obtained during the dry season of 2010. The VI increased up to three times their average value, showing a clear spectral signal change, which coincided with the ENSO event of that period.

Land use management in mountainous areas: combining ground-based and EO (Earth Observation) data to investigate the shallow landsliding susceptibility in the Duron valley (Trento, Italy).

Throughout the alpine domain, shallow landslides represent a serious geologic hazard, often causing severe damages to infrastructures, private properties, natural resources and in the most catastrophic events, threatening human lives. Landslides are a major factor of landscape evolution in mountainous and hilly regions and represent a critical issue for mountainous land management, since they cause loss of pastoral lands. In several alpine contexts, shallow landsliding distribution is strictly connected to the presence and condition of vegetation on the slopes. With the aid of high-resolution satellite images, it's possible to divide automatically the mountainous territory in land cover classes, which contribute with different magnitude to the stability of the slopes. The aim of this research is to combine EO (Earth Observation) land cover maps with ground-based measurements of the land cover properties. In order to achieve this goal, a new procedure has been developed to automatically detect grass mantle degradation patterns from satellite images. Moreover, innovative surveying techniques and instruments are tested to measure in situ the shear strength of grass mantle and the geomechanical and geotechnical properties of these alpine soils. Shallow landsliding distribution is assessed with the aid of physically based models, which use the EO-based map to distribute the resistance parameters across the landscape.

Applications of GIS and remote sensing techniques for studying the housing patterns in Cairo Governorate

The main objective of this study is to reveal the housing patterns in Cairo as one of the most rapidly urbanizing city in the developing world. The study outlines the evolution of the housing problem and its influencing factors in Egypt generally and in Cairo specifically. The study takes into account the political transition from the national state economy to the open door policy, the neo-liberal period and finally to the housing situation after the January 2011 Revolution. The resulting housing patterns in Cairo Governorate were identified as (1) squatter settlements, (2) semi-informal settlements, (3) deteriorated inner pockets, and (4) formal settlements. rnThe study concluded that the housing patterns in Cairo are reflecting a multifaceted problem resulting in: (1) the imbalance between the high demand for affordable housing units for low-income families and the oversupply of upper-income housing, (2) the vast expansion of informal areas both on agricultural and desert lands, (3) the deterioration of the old parts of Cairo without upgrading or appropriate replacement of the housing structure, and (4) the high vacancy rate of newly constructed apartmentsrnThe evolution and development of the current housing problem were attributed to a number of factors. These factors are demographic factors represented in the rapid growth of the population associated with urbanization under the dictates of poverty, and the progressive increase of the prices of both buildable land and building materials. The study underlined that the current pattern of population density in Cairo Governorate is a direct result of the current housing problems. Around the depopulation core of the city, a ring of relatively stable areas in terms of population density has developed. Population densification, at the expense of the depopulation core, is characterizing the peripheries of the city. The population density in relation to the built-up area was examined using Landsat-7 ETM+ image (176/039). The image was acquired on 24 August 2006 and considered as an ideal source for land cover classification in Cairo since it is compatible with the population census 2006.rnConsidering that the socio-economic setting is a driving force of change of housing demand and that it is an outcome of the accumulated housing problems, the socio-economic deprivations of the inhabitants of Cairo Governorate are analyzed. Small administrative units in Cairo are categorized into four classes based on the Socio-Economic Opportunity Index (SEOI). This index is developed by using multiple domains focusing on the economic, educational and health situation of the residential population. The results show four levels of deprivation which are consistent with the existing housing patterns. Informal areas on state owned land are included in the first category, namely, the “severely deprived” level. Ex-formal areas or deteriorated inner pockets are characterized as “deprived” urban quarters. Semi-informal areas on agricultural land concentrate in the third category of “medium deprived” settlements. Formal or planned areas are included mostly in the fourth category of the “less deprived” parts of Cairo Governorate. rnFor a better understanding of the differences and similarities among the various housing patterns, four areas based on the smallest administrative units of shiakhat were selected for a detailed study. These areas are: (1) El-Ma’desa is representing a severely deprived squatter settlement, (2) Ain el-Sira is an example for an ex-formal deprived area, (3) El-Marg el-Qibliya was selected as a typical semi-informal and medium deprived settlement, and (4) El-Nozha is representing a formal and less deprived area.rnThe analysis at shiakhat level reveals how the socio-economic characteristics and the unregulated urban growth are greatly reflected in the morphological characteristics of the housing patterns in terms of street network and types of residential buildings as well as types of housing tenure. It is also reflected in the functional characteristics in terms of land use mix and its degree of compatibility. It is concluded that the provision and accessibility to public services represents a performance measure of the dysfunctional structure dominating squatter and semi-informal settlements on one hand and ample public services and accessibility in formal areas on the other hand.rn

Accessibility as a determinant of environmental dynamics in socio-economic disparities in mainland Southeast Asia

Access and accessibility are important determinants of people’s ability to utilise natural resources, and have a strong impact on household welfare. Physical accessibility of natural resources, on the other hand, has generally been regarded as one of the most important drivers of land-use and land-cover changes. Based on two case studies, this article discusses evidence of the impact of access to services and access to natural resources on household poverty and on the environment. We show that socio-cultural distances are a key limiting factor for gaining access to services, and thereby for improved household welfare. We also discuss the impact of socio-cultural distances on access to natural resources, and show that large-scale commercial exploitation of natural resources tends to occur beyond the spatial reach of socio-culturally and economically marginalised population segments. We conclude that it is essential to pay more attention to improving the structural environment that presently leaves social minority groups marginalised. Innovative approaches that use natural resource management to induce poverty reduction – for example, through compensation of local farmers for environmental services – appear to be promising avenues that can lead to integration of the objectives of poverty reduction and sustainable environmental stewardship.

Landscapes of Poverty and Environment in Lao PDR

A key challenge for land change science is linking land cover information to human-environment interactions over larger spatial areas. Crucial information on land use types and people involved is still lacking. In Lao PDR, a country facing rapid and multilevel land change processes, this lack of information hinders evidence-based policy- and decision-making. We present a new approach for the description of landscape mosaics on national level and relate it to village level Population Census information. Results showed that swidden agricultural landscapes, involving 17% of the population, dominate 28% of the country, while permanent agricultural landscapes involve 74% of the population in 29% of the country.

A landscape mosaics approach for characterizing swidden systems from a REDD+ perspective

Swidden agriculture is often deemed responsible for deforestation and forest degradation in tropical regions, yet swidden landscapes are commonly not visible on land cover/use maps, making it difficult to prove this assertion. For a future REDD+ scheme, the correct identification of deforestation and forest degradation and linking these processes to land use is crucial. However, it is a key challenge to distinguish degradation and deforestation from temporal vegetation dynamics inherent to swiddening. In this article we present an approach for spatial delineation of swidden systems based on landscape mosaics. Furthermore we introduce a classification for change processes based on the change matrix of these landscape mosaics. Our approach is illustrated by a case study in Viengkham district in northern Laos. Over a 30-year time period the swidden landscapes have increased in extent and they have degraded, shifting from long crop–fallow cycles to short cycles. From 2007 to 2009 degradation within the swidden system accounted for half of all the landscape mosaics change processes. Pioneering shifting cultivation did not prevail. The landscape mosaics approach could be used in a swidden compatible monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system of a future REDD+ framework.

Effects of Landscape Segregation on Livelihood Vulnerability: Moving From Extensive Shifting Cultivation to Rotational Agriculture and Natural Forests in Northern Laos

This study investigates four decades of socio-economic and environmental change in a shifting cultivation landscape in the northern uplands of Laos. Historical changes in land cover and land use were analyzed using a chronological series of remote sensing data. Impacts of landscape change on local livelihoods were investigated in seven villages through interviews with various stakeholders. The study reveals that the complex mosaics of agriculture and forest patches observed in the study area have long constituted key assets for the resilience of local livelihood systems in the face of environmental and socio-economic risks. However, over the past 20 years, a process of segregating agricultural and forest spaces has increased the vulnerability of local land users. This process is a direct outcome of policies aimed at increasing national forest cover, eradicating shifting cultivation and fostering the emergence of more intensive and commercial agricultural practices. We argue that agriculture-forest segregation should be buffered in such a way that a diversity of livelihood opportunities and economic development pathways can be maintained.

The Dynamics of Secondary Forest Landscapes in the Lower Mekong Basin: A Regional-Scale Analysis

Secondary forests in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) are increasingly recognized as a valuable component of land cover, providing ecosystem services and benefits for local users. A large proportion of secondary forests in the LMB, especially in the uplands, are maintained by swidden cultivation. In order to assess the regional-scale status and dynamic trends of secondary forests in the LMB, an analysis of existing regional land cover data for 1993 and 1997 was carried out and forms the basis of this paper. To gain insight into the full range of dynamics affecting secondary forests beyond net-change rates, cross-tabulation matrix analyses were performed. The investigations revealed that secondary forests make up the largest share of forest cover in the LMB, with over 80% located in Laos and Cambodia. The deforestation rates for secondary forests are 3 times higher than the rates for other forest categories and account for two-thirds of the total deforestation. These dynamics are particularly pronounced in the less advanced countries of the LMB, especially in Laos, where national policies and the opening up of national economies seem to be the main drivers of further degradation and loss of secondary forests.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Research Partnerships for Addressing Global Challenges: Opening Speech

Humankind today is challenged by numerous threats brought about by global change. Climate has been and is being modified by human activities, which calls for mitigation and adaptation measures at an unprecedented scale. Natural resources have been degraded by human development by means of land cover and land use changes, for which protective and restoration measures have to be taken by land users and governments in most countries of the North and South. Low levels of economic development and insufficient policies in most developing countries have led to widespread poverty, which affects nearly half of the world’s population and directly threatens almost one billion people. Finally, uncontrolled economic growth has increased disparities between and within populations and has led to widespread environmental problems in many nations. Generating and sharing knowledge is a key to addressing such global challenges. Knowledge can be used to develop the best solutions and to avoid or repair threats. Research partnerships have proven to be suitable means to bridge the divides and disparities between knowledge societies and developing countries, thereby reducing gaps. Research partnerships are tools for further capacity development and thereby lead to societal empowerment. Institutional settings allowing for research partnerships are needed both in the North and the South, so that the different networks can work together in a long-term enabling environment.

Finding Homogeneity in Heterogeneity - A New Approach to Quantifying Landscape Mosaics Developed for the Lao PDR

A key challenge for land change science in general and research on swidden agriculture in particular, is linking land cover information to human–environment interactions over larger spatial areas. In Lao PDR, a country facing rapid and multi-level land change processes, this hinders informed policy- and decision-making. Crucial information on land use types and people involved is still lacking. This article proposes an alternative approach for the description of landscape mosaics. Instead of analyzing local land use combinations, we studied land cover mosaics at a meso-level of spatial scale and interpreted these in terms of human–environmental interactions. These landscape mosaics were then overlaid with population census data. Results showed that swidden agricultural landscapes, involving 17% of the population, dominate 29% of the country, while permanent agricultural landscapes involve 74% of the population in 29% of the territory. Forests still form an important component of these landscape mosaics.

Ecosystem service trade-offs and stakeholder claims - a meso-scale study from a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar has been labelled a global biodiversity hotspot due to its extremely high rates of endemic species which are heavily threatened by accelerated deforestation rates and landscape change. The traditional practice of shifting cultivation or "tavy" used by the majority of land users in this area to produce subsistence rice is commonly blamed for these threats. A wide range of stakeholders ranging from conservation to development agencies, and from the private to the public sector has therefore been involved in trying to find solutions to protect the remaining forest fragments and to increase agricultural production. Consequently, provisioning, regulating and socio-cultural services of this forest-mosaic landscape are fundamentally altered leading to trade-offs between them and consequently new winners and losers amongst the stakeholders at different scales. However, despite a growing amount of evidence from case studies analysing local changes, the regional dynamics of the landscape and their contribution to such trade-offs remain poorely understood. This study therefore aims at using generalised landscape units as a base for the assessment of multi-level stakeholder claims on ecosystem services to inform negotiation, planning and decision making at a meso-scale. The presented study applies a mixed-method approach combining remote sensing, GIS and socio-economic methods to reveal current landscape dynamics, their change over time and the corresponding ecosystem service trade-offs induced by diverse stakeholder claims on the regional level. In a first step a new regional land cover classification for three points in time (1995, 2005 and 2011) was conducted including agricultural classes characteristic for shifting cultivation systems. Secondly, a novel GIS approach, termed “landscape mosaics approach” originally developed to assess dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes in Laos was applied. Through this approach generalised landscape mosaics were generated allowing for a better understanding of changes in land use intensities instead of land cover. As a next step we will try to use these landscape units as proxies to map provisioning and regulating ecosystem services throughout the region. Through the overlay with other regional background data such as accessibility and population density and information from a region-wide stakeholder analysis, multiscale trade-offs between different services will be highlighted. The trade-offs observed on the regional scale will then be validated through a socio-economic ground-truthing within selected sites at the local scale. We propose that such meso-scale knowledge is required by all stakeholders involved in decision making towards sustainable development of north-eastern Madagascar.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Meta-studies in land use science: Current coverage and prospects

Land use science has traditionally used case-study approaches for in-depth investigation of land use change processes and impacts. Meta-studies synthesize findings across case-study evidence to identify general patterns. In this paper, we provide a review of meta-studies in land use science. Various meta-studies have been conducted, which synthesize deforestation and agricultural land use change processes, while other important changes, such as urbanization, wetland conversion, and grassland dynamics have hardly been addressed. Meta-studies of land use change impacts focus mostly on biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles, while meta-studies of socioeconomic consequences are rare. Land use change processes and land use change impacts are generally addressed in isolation, while only few studies considered trajectories of drivers through changes to their impacts and their potential feedbacks. We provide a conceptual framework for linking meta-studies of land use change processes and impacts for the analysis of coupled human–environmental systems. Moreover, we provide suggestions for combining meta-studies of different land use change processes to develop a more integrated theory of land use change, and for combining meta-studies of land use change impacts to identify tradeoffs between different impacts. Land use science can benefit from an improved conceptualization of land use change processes and their impacts, and from new methods that combine meta-study findings to advance our understanding of human–environmental systems.