House price bubble estimations in Australia's capital cities with market fundamentals

This paper investigates the existence of house price bubbles in Australia's eight capital cities in recent years by using quantitative analyses including Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response and Chow forecast test. While interactions between house prices and market fundamentals are discussed in long-run and causal estimations, shocks from the market fundamentals to house prices are investigated in generalized impulse response analyses. Findings from estimating house price bubbles for eight capital cities suggest that there was an obvious house price bubble in Perth, while a slight house price bubble occurred in Sydney. In contrast, house prices in Adelaide and Darwin can be explained very well by market fundamentals, while house prices in Melbourne, Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra were undervalued in the study period.

Hybrid neural-evolutionary model for electricity price forecasting

Evolving artificial neural networks has attracted much attention among researchers recently, especially in the fields where plenty of data exist but explanatory theories and models are lacking or based upon too many simplifying assumptions. Financial time series forecasting is one of them. A hybrid model is used to forecast the hourly electricity price from the California Power Exchange. A collaborative approach is adopted to combine ANN and evolutionary algorithm. The main contributions of this thesis include: Investigated the effect of changing values of several important parameters on the performance of the model, and selected the best combination of these parameters; good forecasting results have been obtained with the implemented hybrid model when the best combination of parameters is used. The lowest MAPE through a single run is 5. 28134%. And the lowest averaged MAPE over 10 runs is 6.088%, over 30 runs is 6.786%; through the investigation of the parameter period, it is found that by including future values of the homogenous moments of the instant being forecasted into the input vector, forecasting accuracy is greatly enhanced. A comparison of results with other works reported in the literature shows that the proposed model gives superior performance on the same data set.

An examination of Australian gold mining firms' exposure over the collapse of gold price in the late 1990s

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the exposures of Australian gold mining firms in the highly volatile period from 1995 to 2000. This period has been characterized by significant changes in gold price due to bulk sale of gold by collective central banks. Specifically, the paper aims to investigate several firm-specific factors that are hypothesized to carry substantial influence on gold beta.

Design/methodology/approach – To estimate gold beta, we use the following multifactor model: R_g,_t = a+ß_gGPR_t + ß_xFXR_t + ß_mR_m,_t + _Et , where R_g,_t is the return on the gold stock Index at time t, GPR_t is the gold price return denominated in US dollar at time t, FXR_t is the foreign exchange return of Australian dollar in terms of US dollar at time t, R_m,t is the market return at time t, and _Et is the random error term at time t.

Findings – The paper finds that the values of gold beta are consistently greater than one, implying the sensitive nature of firms’ stock returns to gold price changes. This also suggests that investors holding gold mining stock would receive higher percentage increases in stock returns from a percentage increase in gold price returns, as opposed to investors holding gold bullion. Furthermore, these values have changed substantially over time with significant changes in gold price volatility. The most important and consistent relationship that we find is the impact of firms’ hedging behavior on their respective gold betas. This is consistent with Tufano’s study. It implies that firms, which hedge a greater proportion of their gold reserves, are less sensitive to movements in gold prices. The finding therefore supports the risk management theory that hedging increases shareholder’s wealth. However, cash operating costs, cash reserves and the level of gold production seem to influence very little on the firms’ exposure to gold price changes.

Originality/value – This study is of interest and important to the stock mining companies and investors because the extent of the effect of gold price movements on the stock returns of gold mining companies has significant impacts on returns for both firms and investors especially in their risk management and investment decisions, respectively.

Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life (SHELf): protocol of a randomised controlled trial promoting healthy food and beverage consumption through price reduction and skill-building strategies

Background: In the context of rising food prices, there is a need for evidence on the most effective approaches for promoting healthy eating. Individually-targeted behavioural interventions for increasing food-related skills show promise, but are unlikely to be effective in the absence of structural supports. Fiscal policies have been advocated as a means of promoting healthy eating and reducing obesity and nutrition-related disease, but there is little empirical evidence of their effectiveness. This paper describes the Supermarket Healthy Eating for LiFe (SHELf) study, a randomised controlled trial to investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a tailored skill-building intervention and a price reduction intervention, separately and in combination, against a control condition for promoting purchase and consumption of healthy foods and beverages in women from high and low socioeconomic groups.
Methods/design: SHELf comprises a randomised controlled trial design, with participants randomised to receive either (1) a skill-building intervention; (2) price reductions on fruits, vegetables and low-joule soft drink beverages and water; (3) a combination of skill-building and price reductions; or (4) a control condition. Five hundred women from high and low socioeconomic areas will be recruited through a store loyalty card program and local media. Randomisation will occur on receipt of informed consent and baseline questionnaire. An economic evaluation from a societal perspective using a cost-consequences approach will compare the costs and outcomes between intervention and control groups.
Discussion: This study will build on a pivotal partnership with a major national supermarket chain and the Heart Foundation to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies aimed at increasing women’s purchasing and consumption of fruits and vegetables and decreased purchasing and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. It will be among the first internationally to examine the effects of two promising approaches - skill-building and price reductions - on diet amongst women.

Associations between mothers’ perceptions of the cost of fruit and vegetables and children’s diets : Will children pay the price?

Background/Objectives:
Perceptions that fruit and vegetables are expensive are more common among the socio-economically disadvantaged groups and are linked to poor dietary outcomes. Such perceptions may be exacerbated in countries recently affected by natural disasters, where devastation of fruit and vegetable crops has resulted in increase in prices of fruit and vegetables. Examining the associations of perceptions of fruit and vegetable affordability and children's diets can offer insights into how the high prices of fruit and vegetables might have an impact on the diets of children.
Subjects/Methods:
We analysed the data from 546 socio-economically disadvantaged mother–child pairs to assess the relationship between maternal perceptions of fruit and vegetable affordability and the diets of their children.
Results:
Fruit consumption was lower among children whose mothers felt the cost of fruit was too high. Maternal perceptions of fruit and vegetable affordability were not associated with any other aspect of child's diet.
Conclusions:
Our results suggest a possible role for maternal perceptions of fruit affordability in children's diet, though further research is warranted.

Investment and oil price volatility

In this note, we consider the relationship between oil price volatility and firm returns for 560 firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Using daily time series data from 2000 to 2008, we find that oil price volatility increases firm returns for the majority of the firms in our sample.

On the welfare gains of price dispersion

Can price dispersion be associated with higher levels of welfare? To answer we compare two economies that differ only in the way prices are formed. In the first, sellers post a unique price–quantity pair, with no price dispersion. In the second, sellers post a quantity only and let prices be determined ex post by realized demand, resulting in price dispersion. We show that while agents trade lower quantities when prices are dispersed (an intensive margin effect), they also trade more often (an extensive margin effect). At low inflation, the extensive margin dominates making agents better off with price dispersion.