Accuracy in estimating

Several methods of estimating the costs or price of construction projects are now available for use in the construction industry. It is difficult due to the conservative approach of estimators and quantity surveyors, and the fact that the industry is undergoing one of its deepest recessions this century, to implement any changes in these processes. Several methods have been tried and tested and probably discarded forever, whereas other methods are still in their infancy. There is also a movement towards greater use of the computer, whichever method seems to be adopted. An important consideration with any method of estimating is the accuracy by which costs can be calculated. Any improvement in this consideration will be welcomed by a11 parties, because existing methods are poor when measured by this criteria. Estimating, particularly by contractors, has always carried some mystic, and many of the processes discussed both in the classroom and in practice are little more than fallacy when properly investigated. What makes an estimator or quantity surveyor good at forecasting the right price? To what extent does human behaviour influence or have a part to play? These and some of the other aspects of effective estimating are now examined in more detail.

Human factors in estimating

It is commonly held that the ability of the estimator to apply professional skill and judgement is an important factor in the production of an accurate cost estimate. This chapter identifies these abilities and attributes of the individual estimator that affects estimating accuracy. These human factors are examined under the headings of the role of the estimators, skills of the estimator, characteristics of the estimator, interpretation of data, and the influence of expertise.

The influence of fatty acid methyl ester profiles on inter-cycle variability in a heavy duty compression ignition engine

With the advent of alternative fuels, such as biodiesels and related blends, it is important to develop an understanding of their effects on inter-cycle variability which, in turn, influences engine performance as well as its emission. Using four methanol trans-esterified biomass fuels of differing carbon chain length and degree of unsaturation, this paper provides insight into the effect that alternative fuels have on inter-cycle variability. The experiments were conducted with a heavy-duty Cummins, turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine. Combustion performance is reported in terms of the following key in-cylinder parameters: indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), net heat release rate (NHRR), standard deviation of variability (StDev), coefficient of variation (CoV), peak pressure, peak pressure timing and maximum rate of pressure rise. A link is also established between the cyclic variability and oxygen ratio, which is a good indicator of stoichiometry. The results show that the fatty acid structures did not have a significant effect on injection timing, injection duration, injection pressure, StDev of IMEP, or the timing of peak motoring and combustion pressures. However, a significant effect was noted on the premixed and diffusion combustion proportions, combustion peak pressure and maximum rate of pressure rise. Additionally, the boost pressure, IMEP and combustion peak pressure were found to be directly correlated to the oxygen ratio. The emission of particles positively correlates with oxygen content in the fuel as well as in the air-fuel mixture resulting in a higher total number of particles per unit of mass.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.

XML clustering and its application to XML transformation

The continuous growth of the XML data poses a great concern in the area of XML data management. The need for processing large amounts of XML data brings complications to many applications, such as information retrieval, data integration and many others. One way of simplifying this problem is to break the massive amount of data into smaller groups by application of clustering techniques. However, XML clustering is an intricate task that may involve the processing of both the structure and the content of XML data in order to identify similar XML data. This research presents four clustering methods, two methods utilizing the structure of XML documents and the other two utilizing both the structure and the content. The two structural clustering methods have different data models. One is based on a path model and other is based on a tree model. These methods employ rigid similarity measures which aim to identifying corresponding elements between documents with different or similar underlying structure. The two clustering methods that utilize both the structural and content information vary in terms of how the structure and content similarity are combined. One clustering method calculates the document similarity by using a linear weighting combination strategy of structure and content similarities. The content similarity in this clustering method is based on a semantic kernel. The other method calculates the distance between documents by a non-linear combination of the structure and content of XML documents using a semantic kernel. Empirical analysis shows that the structure-only clustering method based on the tree model is more scalable than the structure-only clustering method based on the path model as the tree similarity measure for the tree model does not need to visit the parents of an element many times. Experimental results also show that the clustering methods perform better with the inclusion of the content information on most test document collections. To further the research, the structural clustering method based on tree model is extended and employed in XML transformation. The results from the experiments show that the proposed transformation process is faster than the traditional transformation system that translates and converts the source XML documents sequentially. Also, the schema matching process of XML transformation produces a better matching result in a shorter time.

Intrusion detection in distributed systems, an approach based on taint marking

This paper presents a new framework for distributed intrusion detection based on taint marking. Our system tracks information flows between applications of multiple hosts gathered in groups (i.e., sets of hosts sharing the same distributed information flow policy) by attaching taint labels to system objects such as files, sockets, Inter Process Communication (IPC) abstractions, and memory mappings. Labels are carried over the network by tainting network packets. A distributed information flow policy is defined for each group at the host level by labeling information and defining how users and applications can legally access, alter or transfer information towards other trusted or untrusted hosts. As opposed to existing approaches, where information is most often represented by two security levels (low/high, public/private, etc.), our model identifies each piece of information within a distributed system, and defines their legal interaction in a fine-grained manner. Hosts store and exchange security labels in a peer to peer fashion, and there is no central monitor. Our IDS is implemented in the Linux kernel as a Linux Security Module (LSM) and runs standard software on commodity hardware with no required modification. The only trusted code is our modified operating system kernel. We finally present a scenario of intrusion in a web service running on multiple hosts, and show how our distributed IDS is able to report security violations at each host level.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Rapid match-searching for gene silencing assessment

Motivation: Gene silencing, also called RNA interference, requires reliable assessment of silencer impacts. A critical task is to find matches between silencer oligomers and sites in the genome, in accordance with one-to-many matching rules (G-U matching, with provision for mismatches). Fast search algorithms are required to support silencer impact assessments in procedures for designing effective silencer sequences.Results: The article presents a matching algorithm and data structures specialized for matching searches, including a kernel procedure that addresses a Boolean version of the database task called the skyline search. Besides exact matches, the algorithm is extended to allow for the location-specific mismatches applicable in plants. Computational tests show that the algorithm is significantly faster than suffix-tree alternatives. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Supplementary information : weighted tree kernels for sequence analysis

Genomic sequences are fundamentally text documents, admitting various representations according to need and tokenization. Gene expression depends crucially on binding of enzymes to the DNA sequence at small, poorly conserved binding sites, limiting the utility of standard pattern search. However, one may exploit the regular syntactic structure of the enzyme's component proteins and the corresponding binding sites, framing the problem as one of detecting grammatically correct genomic phrases. In this paper we propose new kernels based on weighted tree structures, traversing the paths within them to capture the features which underpin the task. Experimentally, we and that these kernels provide performance comparable with state of the art approaches for this problem, while offering significant computational advantages over earlier methods. The methods proposed may be applied to a broad range of sequence or tree-structured data in molecular biology and other domains.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Recursive pathways to marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

Random projections on manifolds of symmetric positive definite matrices for image classification

Recent advances suggest that encoding images through Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices and then interpreting such matrices as points on Riemannian manifolds can lead to increased classification performance. Taking into account manifold geometry is typically done via (1) embedding the manifolds in tangent spaces, or (2) embedding into Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). While embedding into tangent spaces allows the use of existing Euclidean-based learning algorithms, manifold shape is only approximated which can cause loss of discriminatory information. The RKHS approach retains more of the manifold structure, but may require non-trivial effort to kernelise Euclidean-based learning algorithms. In contrast to the above approaches, in this paper we offer a novel solution that allows SPD matrices to be used with unmodified Euclidean-based learning algorithms, with the true manifold shape well-preserved. Specifically, we propose to project SPD matrices using a set of random projection hyperplanes over RKHS into a random projection space, which leads to representing each matrix as a vector of projection coefficients. Experiments on face recognition, person re-identification and texture classification show that the proposed approach outperforms several recent methods, such as Tensor Sparse Coding, Histogram Plus Epitome, Riemannian Locality Preserving Projection and Relational Divergence Classification.

Automatic classification of human epithelial type 2 cell indirect immunofluorescence images using cell pyramid matching

This paper describes a novel system for automatic classification of images obtained from Anti-Nuclear Antibody (ANA) pathology tests on Human Epithelial type 2 (HEp-2) cells using the Indirect Immunofluorescence (IIF) protocol. The IIF protocol on HEp-2 cells has been the hallmark method to identify the presence of ANAs, due to its high sensitivity and the large range of antigens that can be detected. However, it suffers from numerous shortcomings, such as being subjective as well as time and labour intensive. Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD) systems have been developed to address these problems, which automatically classify a HEp-2 cell image into one of its known patterns (eg. speckled, homogeneous). Most of the existing CAD systems use handpicked features to represent a HEp-2 cell image, which may only work in limited scenarios. We propose a novel automatic cell image classification method termed Cell Pyramid Matching (CPM), which is comprised of regional histograms of visual words coupled with the Multiple Kernel Learning framework. We present a study of several variations of generating histograms and show the efficacy of the system on two publicly available datasets: the ICPR HEp-2 cell classification contest dataset and the SNPHEp-2 dataset.