963 resultados para integer disaggregation


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The Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Modified (BLPRM) model simulates the precipitous slide in the hourly and sub-hourly and has six parameters for each of the twelve months of the year. This study aimed to evaluate the behavior of precipitation series in the duration of 15 min, obtained by simulation using the model BLPRM in situations: (a) where the parameters are estimated from a combination of statistics, creating five different sets; (b) suitability of the model to generate rain. To adjust the parameters were used rain gauge records of Pelotas/RS/Brazil, which statistics were estimated - mean, variance, covariance, autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1, the proportion of dry days in the period considered. The results showed that the parameters related to the time of onset of precipitation (λ) and intensities (μx) were the most stable and the most unstable were ν parameter, related to rain duration. The BLPRM model adequately represented the mean, variance, and proportion of the dry period of the series of precipitation lasting 15 min and, the time dependence of the heights of rain, represented autocorrelation coefficient of the first retardation was statistically less simulated series suitability for the duration of 15 min.

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In this work mathematical programming models for structural and operational optimisation of energy systems are developed and applied to a selection of energy technology problems. The studied cases are taken from industrial processes and from large regional energy distribution systems. The models are based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) and on a hybrid approach of a combination of Non-Linear Programming (NLP) and Genetic Algorithms (GA). The optimisation of the structure and operation of energy systems in urban regions is treated in the work. Firstly, distributed energy systems (DES) with different energy conversion units and annual variations of consumer heating and electricity demands are considered. Secondly, district cooling systems (DCS) with cooling demands for a large number of consumers are studied, with respect to a long term planning perspective regarding to given predictions of the consumer cooling demand development in a region. The work comprises also the development of applications for heat recovery systems (HRS), where paper machine dryer section HRS is taken as an illustrative example. The heat sources in these systems are moist air streams. Models are developed for different types of equipment price functions. The approach is based on partitioning of the overall temperature range of the system into a number of temperature intervals in order to take into account the strong nonlinearities due to condensation in the heat recovery exchangers. The influence of parameter variations on the solutions of heat recovery systems is analysed firstly by varying cost factors and secondly by varying process parameters. Point-optimal solutions by a fixed parameter approach are compared to robust solutions with given parameter variation ranges. In the work enhanced utilisation of excess heat in heat recovery systems with impingement drying, electricity generation with low grade excess heat and the use of absorption heat transformers to elevate a stream temperature above the excess heat temperature are also studied.

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In this thesis we examine four well-known and traditional concepts of combinatorics on words. However the contexts in which these topics are treated are not the traditional ones. More precisely, the question of avoidability is asked, for example, in terms of k-abelian squares. Two words are said to be k-abelian equivalent if they have the same number of occurrences of each factor up to length k. Consequently, k-abelian equivalence can be seen as a sharpening of abelian equivalence. This fairly new concept is discussed broader than the other topics of this thesis. The second main subject concerns the defect property. The defect theorem is a well-known result for words. We will analyze the property, for example, among the sets of 2-dimensional words, i.e., polyominoes composed of labelled unit squares. From the defect effect we move to equations. We will use a special way to define a product operation for words and then solve a few basic equations over constructed partial semigroup. We will also consider the satisfiability question and the compactness property with respect to this kind of equations. The final topic of the thesis deals with palindromes. Some finite words, including all binary words, are uniquely determined up to word isomorphism by the position and length of some of its palindromic factors. The famous Thue-Morse word has the property that for each positive integer n, there exists a factor which cannot be generated by fewer than n palindromes. We prove that in general, every non ultimately periodic word contains a factor which cannot be generated by fewer than 3 palindromes, and we obtain a classification of those binary words each of whose factors are generated by at most 3 palindromes. Surprisingly these words are related to another much studied set of words, Sturmian words.

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Environmental issues, including global warming, have been serious challenges realized worldwide, and they have become particularly important for the iron and steel manufacturers during the last decades. Many sites has been shut down in developed countries due to environmental regulation and pollution prevention while a large number of production plants have been established in developing countries which has changed the economy of this business. Sustainable development is a concept, which today affects economic growth, environmental protection, and social progress in setting up the basis for future ecosystem. A sustainable headway may attempt to preserve natural resources, recycle and reuse materials, prevent pollution, enhance yield and increase profitability. To achieve these objectives numerous alternatives should be examined in the sustainable process design. Conventional engineering work cannot address all of these substitutes effectively and efficiently to find an optimal route of processing. A systematic framework is needed as a tool to guide designers to make decisions based on overall concepts of the system, identifying the key bottlenecks and opportunities, which lead to an optimal design and operation of the systems. Since the 1980s, researchers have made big efforts to develop tools for what today is referred to as Process Integration. Advanced mathematics has been used in simulation models to evaluate various available alternatives considering physical, economic and environmental constraints. Improvements on feed material and operation, competitive energy market, environmental restrictions and the role of Nordic steelworks as energy supplier (electricity and district heat) make a great motivation behind integration among industries toward more sustainable operation, which could increase the overall energy efficiency and decrease environmental impacts. In this study, through different steps a model is developed for primary steelmaking, with the Finnish steel sector as a reference, to evaluate future operation concepts of a steelmaking site regarding sustainability. The research started by potential study on increasing energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction due to integration of steelworks with chemical plants for possible utilization of available off-gases in the system as chemical products. These off-gases from blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace and coke oven furnace are mainly contained of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen and partially methane (in coke oven gas) and have proportionally low heating value but are currently used as fuel within these industries. Nonlinear optimization technique is used to assess integration with methanol plant under novel blast furnace technologies and (partially) substitution of coal with other reducing agents and fuels such as heavy oil, natural gas and biomass in the system. Technical aspect of integration and its effect on blast furnace operation regardless of capital expenditure of new operational units are studied to evaluate feasibility of the idea behind the research. Later on the concept of polygeneration system added and a superstructure generated with alternative routes for off-gases pretreatment and further utilization on a polygeneration system producing electricity, district heat and methanol. (Vacuum) pressure swing adsorption, membrane technology and chemical absorption for gas separation; partial oxidation, carbon dioxide and steam methane reforming for methane gasification; gas and liquid phase methanol synthesis are the main alternative process units considered in the superstructure. Due to high degree of integration in process synthesis, and optimization techniques, equation oriented modeling is chosen as an alternative and effective strategy to previous sequential modelling for process analysis to investigate suggested superstructure. A mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed to study behavior of the integrated system under different economic and environmental scenarios. Net present value and specific carbon dioxide emission is taken to compare economic and environmental aspects of integrated system respectively for different fuel systems, alternative blast furnace reductants, implementation of new blast furnace technologies, and carbon dioxide emission penalties. Sensitivity analysis, carbon distribution and the effect of external seasonal energy demand is investigated with different optimization techniques. This tool can provide useful information concerning techno-environmental and economic aspects for decision-making and estimate optimal operational condition of current and future primary steelmaking under alternative scenarios. The results of the work have demonstrated that it is possible in the future to develop steelmaking towards more sustainable operation.

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This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

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The design process of direct-driven permanent magnet synchronous machines (PMSMs) for a full electric 4 ´ 4 sports car is presented. The rotor structure of the machine consists of two permanent magnet layers embedded inside the rotor laminations thus resulting in some inverse saliency, where the q-axis inductance is larger than the d-axis one. An integer slot stator winding was selected to fully take advantage of the additional reluctance torque. The performance characteristics of the designed PMSMs were calculated by applying a twodimensional finite element method. Cross-saturation between the d- and q-axes was taken into account in the calculation of the synchronous inductances. The calculation results are validated by measurements.

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Transportation plays a major role in the gross domestic product of various nations. There are, however, many obstacles hindering the transportation sector. Cost-efficiency along with proper delivery times, high frequency and reliability are not a straightforward task. Furthermore, environmental friendliness has increased the importance of the whole transportation sector. This development will change roles inside the transportation sector. Even now, but especially in the future, decisions regarding the transportation sector will be partly based on emission levels and other externalities originating from transportation in addition to pure transportation costs. There are different factors, which could have an impact on the transportation sector. IMO’s sulphur regulation is estimated to increase the costs of short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea. Price development of energy could change the roles of different transport modes. Higher awareness of the environmental impacts originating from transportation could also have an impact on the price level of more polluting transport modes. According to earlier research, increased inland transportation, modal shift and slowsteaming can be possible results of these changes in the transportation sector. Possible changes in the transportation sector and ways to settle potential obstacles are studied in this dissertation. Furthermore, means to improve cost-efficiency and to decrease environmental impacts originating from transportation are researched. Hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor are studied in this dissertation. Benefits and disadvantages are studied with different methodologies. These include gravitational models, which were optimized with linear integer programming, discrete-event and system dynamics simulation, an interview study and a case study. Geographical focus is on the Baltic Sea Region, but the results can be adapted to other geographical locations with discretion. Results indicate that the dry port concept has benefits, but optimization regarding the location and the amount of dry ports plays an important role. In addition, the utilization of dry ports for freight transportation should be carefully operated, since only a certain amount of total freight volume can be cost-efficiently transported through dry ports. If dry ports are created and located without proper planning, they could actually increase transportation costs and delivery times of the whole transportation system. With an optimized dry port network, transportation costs can be lowered in Finland with three to five dry ports. Environmental impacts can be lowered with up to nine dry ports. If more dry ports are added to the system, the benefits become very minor, i.e. payback time of investments becomes extremely long. Furthermore, dry port network could support major transport corridors such as Rail Baltica. Based on an analysis of statistics and interview study, there could be enough freight volume available for Rail Baltica, especially, if North-West Russia is part of the Northern end of the corridor. Transit traffic to and from Russia (especially through the Baltic States) plays a large role. It could be possible to increase transit traffic through Finland by connecting the potential Finnish dry port network and the studied transport corridor. Additionally, sulphur emission regulation is assumed to increase the attractiveness of Rail Baltica in the year 2015. Part of the transit traffic could be rerouted along Rail Baltica instead of the Baltic Sea, since the price level of sea transport could increase due to the sulphur regulation. Both, the hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor could benefit each other. The dry port network could gain more market share from Russia, but also from Central Europe, which is the other end of Rail Baltica. In addition, further Eastern countries could also be connected to achieve higher potential freight volume by rail.

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Female choice is an important element of sexual selection that may vary among females of the same species. Few researchers have investigated the causes of variation in selectivity with respect to potential mates and overall level of motivation toward a stimulus source representative of a mate. This study demonstrates that female age may be one cause of variation in female choice. Females of different ages may have different mate preferences. As females age, they have less time left to reproduce, and their residual reproductive value decreases. This should correspond to a higher reproductive effort which may be represented as increased motivation and/or decreased selectivity. The effect of age on mate choice in Gryllus integer was investigated by using a non-compensating treadmill, called the Kugel, to measure female phonotaxis. Artificially generated male calling songs of varying pulse rates were broadcast in either a singlestimulus or a three-stimulus experimental design. The pulse rates used in the calling song stimuli were 70, 64, 76, 55 and 85 pulses per second. These corresponded to the documented mean pulse rate for the species at the experimental temperature, one standard deviation below and above the mean, and 2.5 standard deviations below and above the mean, respectively. Test females were either 11-14 days or 25-28 days post-ecdysis. Trials usually were conducted two to seven hours into the scotophase. In the single-stimulus experiment, females were presented with stimuli with only one pulse rate. Older females achieved higher vector scores than younger females, indicating that older females are more motivated to mate. Both groups showed little phonotactic response towards 55 or 85 pIs, both of which lie outside the natural range of G. integer calling song at the experimental temperature. Neither group discriminated among the three pulse rates that fell within the natural range of calling song. In the three-stimulus experiment, females were presented with stimuli with one of three pulse rates, 64, 70 or 76 pIs, In alternation. Both age groups had reduced responsiveness in this experiment, perhaps due to an increase in perceived male density. Additionally, younger females responded significantly more to 64 and 70 pIs than to the higher pulse rate, indicating that they are selective with respect to mate choice. Older females did not discriminate among the three pulse rates. Therefore, it was concluded that selectivity decreases with age. A further study was conducted to determine that these effects were due to age and not due to the differing periods without a mating between the two age groups. Again, stimuli were presented in a three-stimulus experimental design. Age was held constant at 28 days and time since last mating varied from 11 to 25 days. Females varyIng in time since last mating did not differ in their responses to the calling song pulse rates. This indicated that the increased motivation and decreased selectivity exhibited In the initial experiments were due to age and not to time without a mating. Neither time of trial nor female weight had an effect upon female phonotaxis. Data are discussed in terms of mate choice, residual reproductive value, and costs of choice.

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Individual differences in male sexual behav~our and the factors influencing calling behaviour were studied in the field crickets Gryllus 2 integer and Q. veletis. In a large (13m) outdoor arena individually numbered adult male ~~ integer started calling at three to five days of age but thereafter the age of individual G. integer males did not affect nightly calling duration. Calling also did not correlate with individual weight. In this study individual male calling was continuously distributed from 0 hrs. per night to 3.5 hrs. per night, on average. A temporal effect on the number of G. integer males calling was observed. The number of males calling through the night was uniform, but a sharp increase in the number calling was observed in the early morning. No difference in calling times was observed between the night and dawn callers. AlsC)' males calling at dawn usually didnotc'all during the preceeding night. Calling and reproductive success in 1979 demonstrated a negative logarithmic relationship while in the 1980(initial) population a negative linear relationship was observed. No relationship was seen in the 1980 high density population. The ratio of non-callers to callers also affected the mating of individuals in the 1979 and1980(initial) densities:-non~callers (males calling .5 hrs. per night, on average, or less) obtained more females when the population contained a high number of callers, this being a negative logarithmic relationship to, No such relationship was observed in the 1980 high density population. Individual displacement varied nightly and was not correlated to amount of calling or reproductive success of individual G. integer males. G. integer males were displa~ed more when in a higher density in the outdoor arena Male G. integer and G. veletis behaviours were also observed in an indoor arena at different densities and, in G. veletis, with respect to female presence. When females were present in the arena, in G. veletis, male calling was reduced. Males of both species called less, on average, when in ~ higher density, than when they were in a lower density. Male displacement of both species increased on average when in a higher density as compared to displacement in a lower density. Aggression was measured by aggressive call-ing and fighting and was studied in regards to density.G. integer demonstrated less aggression in all but one comparison at higher density. No difference was observed in the ratio of aggressive calling to f.ighting comparison in G. integer. G. veletis demonstrated mixed results. No difference in aggression between densities was observed in comparisons. Less.aggression did occur in higher densities when comparisons invol.ved fighting behaviour. Male behaviour represents a competitive strategy against ot~er males, strategy being defined as a genetic (in part) alternative to other strategies. In this sense, the factors of time, density, male-male aggression, and female presence are conditions demonstrated to affect male behaviour in G. integer and G. veletis. Individual male differences and other considerations suggest that alternative male behaviours are represented by at least two conditional strategies. This possibility, and the transient 'or stable nature of genetic polymorphisms in field cricket behaviour are considered.

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The objective of this investigation was to clarify the adaptive significance of female sexual behaviours in the house cricket, Acheta domesticus, and the Texas field cricket, Gryllus integer. Experiments were focussed primarily on: nutritional factors affecting female reproductive success; the ontogeny of female sexual behaviours; female mating frequency and progeny production; and the pattern of sperm competition. Reproduction of singly mated female A. domesticus assigned to 3 nutritional regimes was compared . Females fed a vitamin and protein-enriched mouse chow, cannibalistic females, and starved females produced on the average, 513 , 200 and 68 offspring, respectively. Cannibals probably could not obtain the same amounts of essential nutrients as females fed mouse chow. Reabsorption of oocytes was likely the major factor contributing to the decreased reproduction of starved females. In addition, female !. domesticus fed mouse chow, but allowed constant access to males produced 11 times as many offspring than did females fed corn meal. Females fed corn meal probably could not absorb or synthesize enough dietary lipids, thus resulting in poor ovariole growth. Female !. domesticus first mate at an average adult age of 7 days, closely corresponding to when they first exhibit positive phonotaxis. Females mate repeatedly and often consume the externally attached spermatophore. In ~. domesticus, females allowed constant access to males produced significantly more offspring than did single maters. Similarly, doubly mated G. integer females produced more offspring than did single maters. This difference resulted largely from the failure of many single maters to reproduce. Remating by female crickets partly functions in offsetting the possibility of a failed initial mating. Nymph production increased significantly with the time the spermatophore was attached in singly mated ~. domesticus. Spermatophore consumption by the female was not affected by male guarding behaviour, and the interval between mating and eating of the spermatophore may often be shorter than the time required for maximum insemination. Some degree of sperm depletion in singly mated !. domesticus and G. integer may have occurred. The patterns of daily offspring production of singly and multiplymated females suggests that a factor provided by a male during mating stimulates female oviposition and/or egg production. Female crickets also might acquire nutrition from spermatophore consumption, a benefit that is augmented by female multiple mating. The electrophoretic examination of various allozymes in ~. integer did not permit determination of a pattern of sperm competition. However, the possibility of last male sperm predominance is related to male guarding behaviour.

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The purpose of this thesis is to investigate some open problems in the area of combinatorial number theory referred to as zero-sum theory. A zero-sequence in a finite cyclic group G is said to have the basic property if it is equivalent under group automorphism to one which has sum precisely IGI when this sum is viewed as an integer. This thesis investigates two major problems, the first of which is referred to as the basic pair problem. This problem seeks to determine conditions for which every zero-sequence of a given length in a finite abelian group has the basic property. We resolve an open problem regarding basic pairs in cyclic groups by demonstrating that every sequence of length four in Zp has the basic property, and we conjecture on the complete solution of this problem. The second problem is a 1988 conjecture of Kleitman and Lemke, part of which claims that every sequence of length n in Zn has a subsequence with the basic property. If one considers the special case where n is an odd integer we believe this conjecture to hold true. We verify this is the case for all prime integers less than 40, and all odd integers less than 26. In addition, we resolve the Kleitman-Lemke conjecture for general n in the negative. That is, we demonstrate a sequence in any finite abelian group isomorphic to Z2p (for p ~ 11 a prime) containing no subsequence with the basic property. These results, as well as the results found along the way, contribute to many other problems in zero-sum theory.

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We associate some graphs to a ring R and we investigate the interplay between the ring-theoretic properties of R and the graph-theoretic properties of the graphs associated to R. Let Z(R) be the set of zero-divisors of R. We define an undirected graph ᴦ(R) with nonzero zero-divisors as vertices and distinct vertices x and y are adjacent if xy=0 or yx=0. We investigate the Isomorphism Problem for zero-divisor graphs of group rings RG. Let Sk denote the sphere with k handles, where k is a non-negative integer, that is, Sk is an oriented surface of genus k. The genus of a graph is the minimal integer n such that the graph can be embedded in Sn. The annihilating-ideal graph of R is defined as the graph AG(R) with the set of ideals with nonzero annihilators as vertex such that two distinct vertices I and J are adjacent if IJ=(0). We characterize Artinian rings whose annihilating-ideal graphs have finite genus. Finally, we extend the definition of the annihilating-ideal graph to non-commutative rings.

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Hub Location Problems play vital economic roles in transportation and telecommunication networks where goods or people must be efficiently transferred from an origin to a destination point whilst direct origin-destination links are impractical. This work investigates the single allocation hub location problem, and proposes a genetic algorithm (GA) approach for it. The effectiveness of using a single-objective criterion measure for the problem is first explored. Next, a multi-objective GA employing various fitness evaluation strategies such as Pareto ranking, sum of ranks, and weighted sum strategies is presented. The effectiveness of the multi-objective GA is shown by comparison with an Integer Programming strategy, the only other multi-objective approach found in the literature for this problem. Lastly, two new crossover operators are proposed and an empirical study is done using small to large problem instances of the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) and Australian Post (AP) data sets.

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Let f(x) be a complex rational function. In this work, we study conditions under which f(x) cannot be written as the composition of two rational functions which are not units under the operation of function composition. In this case, we say that f(x) is prime. We give sufficient conditions for complex rational functions to be prime in terms of their degrees and their critical values, and we derive some conditions for the case of complex polynomials. We consider also the divisibility of integral polynomials, and we present a generalization of a theorem of Nieto. We show that if f(x) and g(x) are integral polynomials such that the content of g divides the content of f and g(n) divides f(n) for an integer n whose absolute value is larger than a certain bound, then g(x) divides f(x) in Z[x]. In addition, given an integral polynomial f(x), we provide a method to determine if f is irreducible over Z, and if not, find one of its divisors in Z[x].

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The GARCH and Stochastic Volatility paradigms are often brought into conflict as two competitive views of the appropriate conditional variance concept : conditional variance given past values of the same series or conditional variance given a larger past information (including possibly unobservable state variables). The main thesis of this paper is that, since in general the econometrician has no idea about something like a structural level of disaggregation, a well-written volatility model should be specified in such a way that one is always allowed to reduce the information set without invalidating the model. To this respect, the debate between observable past information (in the GARCH spirit) versus unobservable conditioning information (in the state-space spirit) is irrelevant. In this paper, we stress a square-root autoregressive stochastic volatility (SR-SARV) model which remains true to the GARCH paradigm of ARMA dynamics for squared innovations but weakens the GARCH structure in order to obtain required robustness properties with respect to various kinds of aggregation. It is shown that the lack of robustness of the usual GARCH setting is due to two very restrictive assumptions : perfect linear correlation between squared innovations and conditional variance on the one hand and linear relationship between the conditional variance of the future conditional variance and the squared conditional variance on the other hand. By relaxing these assumptions, thanks to a state-space setting, we obtain aggregation results without renouncing to the conditional variance concept (and related leverage effects), as it is the case for the recently suggested weak GARCH model which gets aggregation results by replacing conditional expectations by linear projections on symmetric past innovations. Moreover, unlike the weak GARCH literature, we are able to define multivariate models, including higher order dynamics and risk premiums (in the spirit of GARCH (p,p) and GARCH in mean) and to derive conditional moment restrictions well suited for statistical inference. Finally, we are able to characterize the exact relationships between our SR-SARV models (including higher order dynamics, leverage effect and in-mean effect), usual GARCH models and continuous time stochastic volatility models, so that previous results about aggregation of weak GARCH and continuous time GARCH modeling can be recovered in our framework.