Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China

A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

An Experimental Study of Complex-Offer Auctions: Payment Cost Minimization vs. Offer Cost Minimization

A Payment Cost Minimization (PCM) auction has been proposed as an alternative to the Offer Cost Minimization (OCM) auction to be used in wholesale electric power markets with the intention to lower the procurement cost of electricity. Efficiency concerns about this proposal have relied on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using an experimental approach, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices at which they are willing to sell, but also the start-up fees that are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that both auctions result in start-up fees that are significantly higher than the start-up costs. Overall, the two auctions perform similarly in terms of procurement cost and efficiency. Surprisingly, I do not find a substantial difference between less market power and more market power designs. Both designs result in similar inefficiencies and equally higher procurement costs over the competitive prediction. The PCM auction tends to have lower price volatility than the OCM auction when the market power is minimal but this property vanishes in the designs with market power. These findings lead me to conclude that both the PCM and the OCM auctions do not belong to the class of truth revealing mechanisms and do not easily elicit competitive behavior.

Simple-Offer vs. Complex-Offer Auctions in Deregulated Electricity Markets

In my recent experimental research of wholesale electricity auctions, I discovered that the complex structure of the offers leaves a lot of room for strategic behavior, which consequently leads to anti- competitive and inefficient outcomes in the market. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices at which they are willing to sell, but also the start-up fees that are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. In this paper, using the experimental method I compare the performance of two complex-offer auctions (COAs) against the performance of a simple-offer auction (SOA), in which the sellers have to recover all their generation costs --- fixed and variable ---through a uniform market-clearing price. I find that the SOA significantly reduces consumer prices and lowers price volatility. It mitigates anti-competitive effects that are present in the COAs and achieves allocative efficiency more quickly.

The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach

The study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.

Uracil-DNA glycosylase–DNA substrate and product structures: Conformational strain promotes catalytic efficiency by coupled stereoelectronic effects

Enzymatic transformations of macromolecular substrates such as DNA repair enzyme/DNA transformations are commonly interpreted primarily by active-site functional-group chemistry that ignores their extensive interfaces. Yet human uracil–DNA glycosylase (UDG), an archetypical enzyme that initiates DNA base-excision repair, efficiently excises the damaged base uracil resulting from cytosine deamination even when active-site functional groups are deleted by mutagenesis. The 1.8-Å resolution substrate analogue and 2.0-Å resolution cleaved product cocrystal structures of UDG bound to double-stranded DNA suggest enzyme–DNA substrate-binding energy from the macromolecular interface is funneled into catalytic power at the active site. The architecturally stabilized closing of UDG enforces distortions of the uracil and deoxyribose in the flipped-out nucleotide substrate that are relieved by glycosylic bond cleavage in the product complex. This experimentally defined substrate stereochemistry implies the enzyme alters the orientation of three orthogonal electron orbitals to favor electron transpositions for glycosylic bond cleavage. By revealing the coupling of this anomeric effect to a delocalization of the glycosylic bond electrons into the uracil aromatic system, this structurally implicated mechanism resolves apparent paradoxes concerning the transpositions of electrons among orthogonal orbitals and the retention of catalytic efficiency despite mutational removal of active-site functional groups. These UDG/DNA structures and their implied dissociative excision chemistry suggest biology favors a chemistry for base-excision repair initiation that optimizes pathway coordination by product binding to avoid the release of cytotoxic and mutagenic intermediates. Similar excision chemistry may apply to other biological reaction pathways requiring the coordination of complex multistep chemical transformations.

Síntese, caracterização e modificação de superfícies de sílicas mesoporosas ordenadas para captura de CO2

Processos como a purificação do metano (CH4) e a produção de hidrogênio gasoso (H2) envolvem etapas de separação de CO2. Atualmente, etanolaminas como monoetanolamina (MEA), dietanolamina (DEA), metildietanolamina (MDEA) e trietanolamina (TEA) são as substâncias mais utilizadas no processo de separação/captura de CO2 em processos industriais. Entretanto, o uso destas substâncias apresenta alguns inconvenientes devido à alta volatilidade, dificuldade de se trabalhar com material líquido, também ao alto gasto energético envolvido das etapas de regeneração e à baixa estabilidade térmica e química. Com base nessa problemática, esse trabalho teve por objetivo a síntese de um tipo de sílica mesoporosa altamente ordenada (SBA-15) de modo a utilizá-la no processo de captura de CO2. O trabalho foi dividido em quatro etapas experimentais que envolveram a síntese da SBA-15, o estudo do comportamento térmico de algumas etanolaminas livres, síntese e caracterização de materiais adsorventes preparados a partir de incorporação de etanolaminas à SBA-15 e estudo da eficiência de captura de CO2 por esses materiais. Novas alternativas de síntese da SBA-15 foram estudadas neste trabalho, visando aperfeiçoar as propriedades texturais do material produzido. Tais alternativas são baseadas na remoção do surfatante, utilizado como molde na síntese da sílica mesoporosa, por meio da extração por Soxhlet, utilizando diferentes solventes. O processo contribuiu para melhorar as propriedades do material obtido, evitando o encolhimento da estrutura que pode ser ocasionado durante a etapa de calcinação. Por meio de técnicas como TG/DTG, DSC, FTIR e Análise Elementar de C, H e N foi realizada a caracterização físico-química e termoanalítica da MEA, DEA, MDEA e TEA, visando melhor conhecer as características destas substâncias. Estudos cinéticos baseados nos métodos termogravimétricos isotérmicos e não isotérmicos (Método de Ozawa) foram realizados, permitindo a determinação de parâmetros cinéticos envolvidos nas etapas de volatilização/decomposição térmica das etanolaminas. Além das técnicas acima mencionadas, MEV, MET, SAXS e Medidas de Adsorção de N2 foram utilizadas na caraterização da SBA-15 antes e após a incorporação das etanolaminas. Dentre as etanolaminas estudadas, a TEA apresentou maior estabilidade térmica, entretanto, devido ao seu maior impedimento estérico, é a etanolamina que apresenta menor afinidade com o CO2. Diferentemente das demais etanolaminas estudadas, a decomposição térmica da DEA envolve uma reação intramolecular, levando a formação de MEA e óxido de etileno. A incorporação destes materiais à SBA-15 aumentou a estabilidade térmica das etanolaminas, uma vez que parte do material permanece dentro dos poros da sílica. Os ensaios de adsorção de CO2 mostraram que a incorporação da MEA à SBA-15 catalisou o processo de decomposição térmica da mesma. A MDEA foi a etanolamina que apresentou maior poder de captura de CO2 e sua estabilidade térmica foi consideravelmente aumentada quando a mesma foi incorporada à SBA-15, aumentando também seu potencial de captura de CO2.

The influence of the sample introduction system on signals of different tin compounds in inductively coupled plasma-based techniques

The influence of the sample introduction system on the signals obtained with different tin compounds in inductively coupled plasma (ICP) based techniques, i.e., ICP atomic emission spectrometry (ICP–AES) and ICP mass spectrometry (ICP–MS) has been studied. Signals for test solutions prepared from four different tin compounds (i.e., tin tetrachloride, monobutyltin, dibutyltin and di-tert-butyltin) in different solvents (methanol 0.8% (w/w), i-propanol 0.8% (w/w) and various acid matrices) have been measured by ICP–AES and ICP–MS. The results demonstrate a noticeable influence of the volatility of the tin compounds on their signals measured with both techniques. Thus, in agreement with the compound volatility, the highest signals are obtained for tin tetrachloride followed by di-tert-butyltin/monobutyltin and dibutyltin. The sample introduction system exerts an important effect on the amount of solution loading the plasma and, hence, on the relative signals afforded by the tin compounds in ICP–based techniques. Thus, when working with a pneumatic concentric nebulizer, the use of spray chambers affording high solvent transport efficiency to the plasma (such as cyclonic and single pass) or high spray chamber temperatures is recommended to minimize the influence of the tin chemical compound. Nevertheless, even when using the conventional pneumatic nebulizer coupled to the best spray chamber design (i.e., a single pass spray chamber), signals obtained for di-tert-butyltin/monobutyltin and dibutyltin are still around 10% and 30% lower than the corresponding signal for tin tetrachloride, respectively. When operating with a pneumatic microconcentric nebulizer coupled to a 50 °C-thermostated cinnabar spray chamber, all studied organotin compounds provided similar emission signals although about 60% lower than those obtained for tin tetrachloride. The use of an ultrasonic nebulizer coupled to a desolvation device provides the largest differences in the emission signals, among all tested systems.

Potential of spark ignition engine for increased fuel efficiency. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Assessment of border crossings and transportation corridors for North American trade. Report to Congress pursuant to Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991, Public Law 102-240, Sections 1089 and 6015.

Mode of access: Internet.

Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incremental model transformation for the evolution of model-driven systems

Model transformations are an integral part of model-driven development. Incremental updates are a key execution scenario for transformations in model-based systems, and are especially important for the evolution of such systems. This paper presents a strategy for the incremental maintenance of declarative, rule-based transformation executions. The strategy involves recording dependencies of the transformation execution on information from source models and from the transformation definition. Changes to the source models or the transformation itself can then be directly mapped to their effects on transformation execution, allowing changes to target models to be computed efficiently. This particular approach has many benefits. It supports changes to both source models and transformation definitions, it can be applied to incomplete transformation executions, and a priori knowledge of volatility can be used to further increase the efficiency of change propagation.

Megtakarítási típusok - egy adaptív-evolúciós megközelítés = Types of saving - an adaptive-evolutionary approach

A közgazdaságtanban az ágensalapú modellezés egyik alkalmazási területe a makro ökonómia. Ebben a tanulmányban néhány népszerű megtakarítási szabály létét feltételezve adaptív-evolúciós megközelítésben endogén módon próbálunk következtetni e szabályok relatív életképességére. Három különböző típusú ágenst vezetünk be: egy prudens, egy rövidlátó és egy, a permanensjövedelem-elméletnek megfelelően működőt. Rendkívül erős szelekciós nyomás mellett a prudens típus egyértelműen kiszorítja a másik kettőt. A második legéletképesebbnek a rövidlátó típus tűnik, de már közepes szelekciós nyomásnál sem tűnik el egyik típus sem. Szokásos tőkehatékonyság mellett a prudens típus túlzott beruházási tendenciát visz a gazdaságba, és a gazdaság az aranykori megtakarítási rátánál magasabbat ér el. A hitelkorlátok oldása még nagyobb mértékű túlzott beruházáshoz vezethet, a hitelek mennyiségének növekedése mellett a tőketulajdonosok mintegy "kizsákmányoltatják" magukat azokkal, akiknek nincs tőkejövedelmük. A hosszú távú átlagos fogyasztás szempontjából a három típus kiegyensúlyozott aránya adja a legjobb eredményt, ugyanakkor ez jóval nagyobb ingadozással jár, mint amikor csak prudens típusú háztartások léteznek. ____ Agent-based modelling techniques have been employed for some time in macroeconomics. This paper tests some popular saving rules in an adaptive-evolutionary context of looking at their relative survival values. The three types are prudent, short-sighted, and responsive to the permanent-income hypothesis. It is found that where selection pressure is very high, only the prudent type persists. The second most resilient seems to be the short-sighted type, but all three coexist even at medium levels of selection pressure. When the efficiency of capital approaches the level usually assumed in macroeconomics, the prudent type drives the economy towards excessive accumulation of capital, i. e. a long-term savings rate that exceeds the golden rule. If credit constraints are relaxed, this tendency strengthens as credit grows and capital-owners seem to allow themselves to be exploited" by workers. From the angle of average consumption, the best outcome is obtained from a random distribution of types, although this is accompanied by higher volatility.

A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

Monitoring the Accuracy of Multiple Occupancy Forecasts

Corporate executives closely monitor the accuracy of their hotels' occupancy fore- casts since important decisions are based upon these predictions. This study lists the criteria for selecting an appropriate error measure. It discusses several evaluation methods focusing on statistical significance tests and demonstrates the use of two adequate evaluation methods: Mincer- Zamowitz's efficiency test and Wilcoxon's Non-Parametric Matched-Pairs Signed- Ranks test.