Analogy in Decision-Making

In the context of decision making under uncertainty, we formalize the concept of analogy: an analogy between two decision problems is a mapping that transforms one problem into the other while preserving the problem's structure. We identify the basic structure of a decision problem, and provide a representation of the mappings that pre- serve this structure. We then consider decision makers who use multiple analogies. Our main results are a representation theorem for "aggregators" of analogies satisfying certain minimal requirements, and the identification of preferences emerging from analogical reasoning. We show that a large variety of multiple-prior preferences can be thought of as emerging from analogical reasoning.

Understanding economic decision-making under social norms prescribing behaviours

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Disease, Disparities and Decision Making: Mandatory HIV Testing of Prospective Immigrants to Canada

Étude de cas / Case study

The psychophysics of decision making in a two-direction random dot motion target selection task

La tâche de kinématogramme de points aléatoires est utilisée avec le paradigme de choix forcé entre deux alternatives pour étudier les prises de décisions perceptuelles. Les modèles décisionnels supposent que les indices de mouvement pour les deux alternatives sont encodés dans le cerveau. Ainsi, la différence entre ces deux signaux est accumulée jusqu’à un seuil décisionnel. Cependant, aucune étude à ce jour n’a testé cette hypothèse avec des stimuli contenant des mouvements opposés. Ce mémoire présente les résultats de deux expériences utilisant deux nouveaux stimuli avec des indices de mouvement concurrentiels. Parmi une variété de combinaisons d’indices concurrentiels, la performance des sujets dépend de la différence nette entre les deux signaux opposés. De plus, les sujets obtiennent une performance similaire avec les deux types de stimuli. Ces résultats supportent un modèle décisionnel basé sur l’accumulation des indices de mouvement net et suggèrent que le processus décisionnel peut intégrer les signaux de mouvement à partir d’une grande gamme de directions pour obtenir un percept global de mouvement.

Agendas in legislative decision-making

Despite the wide range of agendas used in legislative decision-making, the literature has focused almost exclusively on two stylized formats, the so-called Euro-Latin and Anglo-American agendas. As emphasized by Ordeshook and Schwartz [1987], this focus leaves a sizable gap in our understanding of the legislative process. To help address the deficiency, I first define a very broad class of agendas (called simple agendas) whose features are common among agendas used in legislative settings. I then characterize the sophisticated (Farquharson [1969]) voting outcomes implemented by agendas in this class. By establishing a clear connection between the structure of simple agendas and the outcomes associated with them, the characterization extends our understanding of legislative decision-making well beyond the very limited scope of Euro-Latin and Anglo-American agendas.

Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decision makers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reduced number of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between these actors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-known multicriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow the so-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al., 1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknown variance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative priorities of the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of the median of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner (priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will be used in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution of the problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling tools

Group preference structures in AHP–group decision making

This paper presents a procedure that allows us to determine the preference structures (PS) associated to each of the different groups of actors that can be identified in a group decision making problem with a large number of individuals. To that end, it makes use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1980) as the technique to solve discrete multicriteria decision making problems. This technique permits the resolution of multicriteria, multienvironment and multiactor problems in which subjective aspects and uncertainty have been incorporated into the model, constructing ratio scales corresponding to the priorities relative to the elements being compared, normalised in a distributive manner (wi = 1). On the basis of the individuals’ priorities we identify different clusters for the decision makers and, for each of these, the associated preference structure using, to that end, tools analogous to those of Multidimensional Scaling. The resulting PS will be employed to extract knowledge for the subsequent negotiation processes and, should it be necessary, to determine the relative importance of the alternatives being compared using anyone of the existing procedures

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in singlecase designs

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Behind the decision making of the KFC coffee campaign, can KFC win the coffee market in UK?�

KFC, the chain fast-food restaurants in UK, planed to launched coffee products through campaigns. There are two main reasons for KFC to make the decision. The first one is KFC tried to promote its coffee products with KFC A.M. breakfast plan and it failed at last. The second reason is that KFC needs extension points of interest. The financial condition of KFC has been steady but no breakthrough growth. It has been showed that there is enormous potential of “fast-drink” market in UK. After the success of KFC “Krushems” series, it is reasonable for the company launched coffee products. However, KFC also faced to many challenges to win the market. Compare to the main competitor of McDonald’s, KFC’s quantity of restaurants is far too less. Moreover, KFC has a brand limitation that focuses more family than single urban. The dominant competitors are another challenge KFC need to manage. To sum up, KFC has to win these challenges to be a bigger player in UK coffee market.

Alps Workshop 3 p19 Steps in decision-making

Stepped Animation

Decision making and planning of children in the reproductive process of males

Reproduction is not restricted to the biological; it is also a complex and dynamic social process. The objective of this paper is to analyze the decision and planning of children as part of the reproductive process in men. Methodologically, a qualitative research was made. The analysis includes in-depth interviews with 30 parents between 20 and 45 years, of medium socio-economic level in México. The results show that the reproductive process incorporates family formation negotiated with their couple the marriage until they had economic potential. In some cases, their decision hastened because the couple was pregnant. The planning was not contemplated but when getting the news, they accept it and get involved in the process, while others see it as a conflict.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Ethics and citizenship : tools for moral decision-making.

Cumple con los requisitos exigidos en el curriculo nacional inglés de 2002 para el programa de estudio de educación para la ciudadanía en la etapa de secundaria. De los tres elementos que tiene este programa: la cultura política, la participación comunitaria, y la responsabilidad social y moral, esta guía quiere resaltar este último aspecto. Pues,pretende el desarrollo espiritual, moral, social y cultural en los alumnos y, también, el desarrollo de habilidades tanto, para la comunicación, la utilización de las nuevas tecnologías, el trabajo en equipo y la resolución de problemas, como para saber desenvolverse en la vida.

Autoconcepto académico y toma de decisiones en el alumnado de bachillerato. 'Academic self-concept and decision making of secondary school students'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación. Con el apoyo económico del departamento MIDE de la UNED. Contiene anexo de preguntas