Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Constraining the active tectonic deformation of Andaman-Nicobar Arc in the background of December 26,2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

The Andaman-Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal lies in a zone where the Indian plate subducts beneath the Burmese microplate, and therefore forms a belt of frequent earthquakes. Few efforts, not withstanding the available historical and instrumental data were not effectively used before the Mw 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake to draw any inference on the spatial and temporal distribution of large subduction zone earthquakes in this region. An attempt to constrain the active crustal deformation of the Andaman-Nicobar arc in the background of the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman megathrust earthquake is made here, thereby presenting a unique data set representing the pre-seismic convergence and co-seismic displacement.Understanding the mechanisms of the subduction zone earthquakes is both challenging sCientifically and important for assessing the related earthquake hazards. In many subduction zones, thrust earthquakes may have characteristic patterns in space and time. However, the mechanism of mega events still remains largely unresolved.Large subduction zone earthquakes are usually associated with high amplitude co-seismic deformation above the plate boundary megathrust and the elastic relaxation of the fore-arc. These are expressed as vertical changes in land level with the up-dip part of the rupture surface uplifted and the areas above the down-dip edge subsided. One of the most characteristic pattern associated with the inter-seismic era is that the deformation is in an opposite sense that of co-seismic period.This work was started in 2002 to understand the tectonic deformation along the Andaman-Nicobar arc using seismological, geological and geodetic data. The occurrence of the 2004 megathrust earthquake gave a new dimension to this study, by providing an opportunity to examine the co-seismic deformation associated with the greatest earthquake to have occurred since the advent of Global Positioning System (GPS) and broadband seismometry. The major objectives of this study are to assess the pre-seismic stress regimes, to determine the pre-seismic convergence rate, to analyze and interpret the pattern of co-seismic displacement and slip on various segments and to look out for any possible recurrence interval for megathrust event occurrence for Andaman-Nicobar subduction zone. This thesis is arranged in six chapters with further subdivisions dealing all the above aspects.

Development and Investigations of Mobile Antennas for less Radiation Hazards

Antennas, the key element in wireless communication devices had undergone amazing developments especially in the direction of compactness and safety aspects. In the last two decades, the use of the cellular phones has become the most popular mode of communication across the globe. At the same time, the concerns about the radiation effects have increased in the general public. The main concern of this thesis is to develop a mobile antenna which gives reduced RF interference to the user. The reduction of the power absorbed by the user can tremendously avoid any possible health hazards. The radiation characteristic of a monopole antenna is modified with good radiation characteristics suitable for a mobile handset. The modification is implemented by using different resonating structures which provides reduced radiation along one direction. The direction of less radiation can be changed by modifying the planar antenna structure to a ground folded antenna. This modified structure with excellent radiation characteristic is suitable for modern wireless handheld devices with less user RF interference. Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) is an important parameter for mobile handset. The SAR is estimated for the newly developed antenna for different conditions and discussed in this thesis.

Rainfall Climatology over Middle East Region and its Variability

A better understanding of the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region identifying the mechanisms responsible for the rain producing systems is essential for effective utilization of the water resources over the arid region. A comprehensive analysis on the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region is carried out to bring out the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and mechanisms responsible for the rain events. The study was carried out utilizing rainfall, OLR, wind and humidity data sets procured from TRMM, NOAA and NCEP-NCAR. Climatology of annual rainfall brings out two areas of alarmingly low rainfall in the Middle East region: one in Egypt, Jordan and adjoining areas and the other in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. Daily rainfall analysis indicates that northern region gets rainfall mainly during winter and spring associated with the passage of Mediterranean low pressure systems whereas rain over the southern region is caused mainly by the monsoon organized convection, cross equatorial flow and remnants of low pressure systems associated with the monsoon during the summer season. Thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere reveals that the region does not have frequent local convection due to insufficient moisture content. The sinking motion associated with the sub tropic high pressure system and subsidence associated with the Walker circulation are responsible for maintaining warm and dry air over the region.

Microstrip Antennas For Mobile Telephone Handset With Reduced Radiation Hazards

A novel antenna configuration comprised of two circular microstrip antennas (CMAs) resonating in the TMtt and TM2, modes, producing radiation characteristics suitable for a mobile telephone handset, is presented. The antennas operating at the same frequency are placed back to back with a separation comparable to the thickness of a typical handset. The radiation pattern consists of a region of reduced radiation intensity, which minimizes the radiation hazards to the user

Primary Productivity Of The Retiing Zones In The Kadinamkulamestuary, South-West Coastof India

Retting.of coconut husk is one of the major problems of pollution in the estuaries (Kayals) of Kerala. This paper discusses the salient features associated with the variation in gross and net primary productivity values in the Kadinarnkularn Kayal based on lortnightlydala from twosclected stations frorn Octobcr1987 to September 1988.The gross primary productivity value in the surface water ranged from 0.06 to 0.29gC/m3/day at Station Iand from 0.06 to 1.49gC/rn3/dayatstation II. In the bottom wateritrangcdfrorn oto 0.21 gC/m2/ day at station I whereas that at station II from 0.03 to 1.41gC/m3j day. The net productivity in the surface water at station I varied from 0 to 024 gC/m Iday Whereas that atstation II varied from 0.02to 1.44gC/m3Iday.AI the bottomwaterilvaried from ato 0.19gC/m3/ day at station I and from 0.01 to 1.21gC/m3/day at station II. The monsoon period showed the highest mean seasonal value at stations I and II. The total depletion of dissolved oxygen giving rise to anoxic condition coupled with the production of large quantities of hydrogen sulphide was found to be detrimental to the gross and net productivity values in the retting zone

Core sediment biogeochemistry in specific zones of Cochin Estuarine System (CES)

Geochemical composition is a set of data for predicting the climatic condition existing in an ecosystem. Both the surficial and core sediment geochemistry are helpful in monitoring, assessing and evaluating the marine environment. The aim of the research work is to assess the relationship between the biogeochemical constituents in the Cochin Estuarine System (CES), their modifications after a long period of anoxia and also to identify the various processes which control the sediment composition in this region, through a multivariate statistical approach. Therefore the study of present core sediment geochemistry has a critical role in unraveling the benchmark of their characterization. Sediment cores from four prominent zones of CES were examined for various biogeochemical aspects. The results have served as rejuvenating records for the prediction of core sediment status prevailing in the CES

Mechanisms of residue mulch-induced cereal growth increases in West Africa

The use of crop residues (CR) has been widely reported as a means of increasing crop yields across West Africa. However, little has been done to compare the magnitude and mechanisms of CR effects systematically in the different agro-ecological zones of the region. To this end, a series of field trials with millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], and maize (Zea mays L.) was conducted over a 4-yr period in the Sahelian, Sudanian, and Guinean zones of West Africa. Soils ranged in pH from 4.1 to 5.4 along a rainfall gradient from 510 to 1300 mm. Treatments in the factorial experiments were three CR rates (0,500, and 2000 kg ha^-1)and several levels of phosphorus and nitrogen. The results showed CR-induced total dry matter (TDM) increases in cereals up to 73% for the Sahel compared with a maximum of 16% in the wetter Sudanian and Guinean zones. Residue effects on weakly buffered Sahelian soils were due to improved P availability and to a protection of seedlings against wind erosion. Additional effects of CR mulching on topsoil properties in the Sahel were a decrease in peak temperatures by 4°C and increased water availability. These mulch effects on soil chemical and physical properties strongly decreased from North to South. Likely explanations for this decrease are the decline of dust deposition and wind erosion hazards, the higher soil clay content, lower air temperature, and a faster decomposition rate of mulch material with increasing rainfall from the Sahel to the Sudanian and Guinean zones.

The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.

Home gardens and Dioscorea species – A case study from the climatic zones of Sri Lanka

Home gardens are considered as vital units for enhancing food security particularly in developing nations of South Asia, such as Sri Lanka. Although the yam crop Dioscorea spp. constitute a popular but still minor component in Sri Lankan home gardens, they have the potential of producing large quantities of edible material with minimal inputs. However, their real value in South Asian home gardens is not yet reported. Hence, this study was carried out to get insights into home garden characteristics, gardener demography as well as current management practices within 300 Sri Lankan home garden systems that are located along a climatic gradient. By using interviews and field observations, gardeners, who cultivated in particular Dioscorea species, were studied within 10 of the 25 administrative districts distributed in the wet, intermediate and dry climatic zone of Sri Lanka. Furthermore, current management practices of yams cultivation were analyzed on local scale and compared afterwards with management recommendations published in the year 2006 by the Department of Agriculture. Dioscorea species were found in a majority of home gardens, especially in wet and intermediate zones of Sri Lanka. D. alata was the most prominent species and was managed at a subsistence level and not as per recommendations developed by the Department of Agriculture. Our results revealed that Dioscorea alata is an essential component of Sri Lankan home gardens in rural areas and can yield substantial quantities of edible tubers with low input, especially during times of food scarcities, and has therefore the potential to enhance food security and rural development.

Improving cropping systems of semi-arid south-western Madagascar under multiple ecological and socio-economic constraints

Das Mahafaly Plateau im südwestlichen Madagaskar ist gekennzeichnet durch raue klimatische Bedingungen, vor allem regelmäßige Dürren und Trockenperioden, geringe Infrastruktur, steigende Unsicherheit, hohe Analphabetenrate und regelmäßige Zerstörung der Ernte durch Heuschreckenplagen. Da 97% der Bevölkerung von der Landwirtschaft abhängen, ist eine Steigerung der Produktivität von Anbausystemen die Grundlage für eine Verbesserung der Lebensbedingungen und Ernährungssicherheit in der Mahafaly Region. Da wenig über die Produktivität von traditionellen extensiven und neu eingeführten Anbaumethoden in diesem Gebiet bekannt ist, waren die Zielsetzungen der vorliegenden Arbeit, die limitierenden Faktoren und vielversprechende alternative Anbaumethoden zu identifizieren und diese unter Feldbedingungen zu testen. Wir untersuchten die Auswirkungen von lokalem Viehmist und Holzkohle auf die Erträge von Maniok, der Hauptanbaufrucht der Region, sowie die Beiträge von weiteren Faktoren, die im Untersuchungsgebiet ertragslimitierend sind. Darüber hinaus wurde in der Küstenregion das Potenzial für bewässerten Gemüseanbau mit Mist und Holzkohle untersucht, um zu einer Diversifizierung von Einkommen und Ernährung beizutragen. Ein weiterer Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit war die Schätzung von Taubildung und deren Beitrag in der Jahreswasserbilanz durch Testen eines neu entworfenen Taumessgerätes. Maniok wurde über drei Jahre und in drei Versuchsfeldern in zwei Dörfern auf dem Plateau angebaut, mit applizierten Zeburindermistraten von 5 und 10 t ha-1, Holzkohleraten von 0,5 und 2 t ha-1 und Maniokpflanzdichten von 4500 Pflanzen ha-1. Maniokknollenerträge auf Kontrollflächen erreichten 1 bis 1,8 t Trockenmasse (TM) ha-1. Mist führte zu einer Knollenertragssteigerung um 30 - 40% nach drei Jahren in einem kontinuierlich bewirtschafteten Feld mit geringer Bodenfruchtbarkeit, hatte aber keinen Effekt auf den anderen Versuchsfeldern. Holzkohle hatte keinen Einfluss auf Erträge über den gesamten Testzeitraum, während die Infektion mit Cassava-Mosaikvirus zu Ertragseinbußen um bis zu 30% führte. Pflanzenbestände wurden felder-und jahresübergreifend um 4-54% des vollen Bestandes reduziert, was vermutlich auf das Auftreten von Trockenperioden und geringe Vitalität von Pflanzmaterial zurückzuführen ist. Karotten (Daucus carota L. var. Nantaise) und Zwiebeln (Allium cepa L. var. Red Créole) wurden über zwei Trockenzeiten mit lokal erhältlichem Saatgut angebaut. Wir testeten die Auswirkungen von lokalem Rindermist mit einer Rate von 40 t ha-1, Holzkohle mit einer Rate von 10 t ha-1, sowie Beschattung auf die Gemüseernteerträge. Lokale Bewässerungswasser hatte einen Salzgehalt von 7,65 mS cm-1. Karotten- und Zwiebelerträge über Behandlungen und Jahre erreichten 0,24 bis 2,56 t TM ha-1 beziehungsweise 0,30 bis 4,07 DM t ha-1. Mist und Holzkohle hatten keinen Einfluss auf die Erträge beider Kulturen. Beschattung verringerte Karottenerträge um 33% im ersten Jahr, während sich die Erträge im zweiten Jahr um 65% erhöhten. Zwiebelerträge wurden unter Beschattung um 148% und 208% im ersten und zweiten Jahr erhöht. Salines Bewässerungswasser sowie Qualität des lokal verfügbaren Saatgutes reduzierten die Keimungsraten deutlich. Taubildung im Küstendorf Efoetsy betrug 58,4 mm und repräsentierte damit 19% der Niederschlagsmenge innerhalb des gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum von 18 Monaten. Dies weist darauf hin, dass Tau in der Tat einen wichtigen Beitrag zur jährlichen Wasserbilanz darstellt. Tageshöchstwerte erreichten 0,48 mm. Die getestete Tauwaage-Vorrichtung war in der Lage, die nächtliche Taubildung auf der metallischen Kondensationsplatte zuverlässig zu bestimmen. Im abschließenden Kapitel werden die limitierenden Faktoren für eine nachhaltige Intensivierung der Landwirtschaft in der Untersuchungsregion diskutiert.

Estudi i propostes de gestió de les zones humides dels Estanys de Basturs

Estudi del medi abiòtic i biòtic dels estanys de Basturs (Conca del riu Tremp) a partir del qual s'han elaborat diverses propostes de gestió dirigides a una millora de la conservació les zones humides

Localització de les zones òptimes del litoral català per la instal•lació d’un parc eòlic marí

Anàlisi territorial del litoral català mitjançant una sèrie de variables tractades amb sistemes d’informació geogràfica (recurs eòlic, perfil batimètric, zones incloses en Xarxa Natura 2000, subestacions elèctriques vora la costa) per tal de localitzar les zones òptimes d’implantació d’un parc eòlic marí

El Estudio de las inundaciones históricas desde un enfoque contextual. La ciudad de Girona, un ejemplo

Este artículo propone el enfoque contextual como nuevo marco de estudio de las inundaciones históricas. El enfoque contextual tiene su origen en la reflexión geográfica sobre los riesgos naturales iniciada en la escuela geográfica norteamericana hace ya más de medio siglo y pone especial énfasis en la dimensión humana de estos fenómenos definida geográfica e históricamente, sin olvidar los aspectos físicos de las inundaciones en el territorio objeto de estudio. En una primera parte del presente artículo se describen los niveles de análisis y componentes que componen el estudio de las inundaciones histórica5 desde el enfoque contextual. La segunda parte es una aplicación del enfoque contextual al caso de la ciudad de Girona

La Géographie française et le risque d'inondation: de la géographie physique à la géographie humaine

Les inondations, comme tous les risques naturels, ont été un thème qui est revenu souvent au long de l'histoire de la géographie française, mais toujours — et contrairement à ce qui se passe dans la géographie anglo-saxonne —, en relation à la géographie physique. Dans cet article, nous voulons expliquer les raisons de la présence de la géographie physique dans le traitement du risque d'inondation : nous mettons en relation les différents moments de la géographie française avec l'analyse du risque d'inondation et révisons le contenu des références aux inondations entre les géographes ou écoles géographiques les plus représentatifs