Expected performance of the ATLAS experiment - detector, trigger and physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

Potential Economic Returns from Selling Beef in a Specified Value-Based Market

Three groups of steers--one theoretical group and two experimental groups—were evaluated for marketing cattle live, as boxed beef, and grade and yield when the live price was $71 to $73/cwt, grade and yield price $125/cwt for Choice yield grade 3 carcasses with $20/cwt discount for Select carcasses, and in a commodity-trim or close-trim boxed beef market. The results show that the value of highyielding steers can be significantly increased if sold in a close-trim boxed beef market. The close-trim premiums ranged from $5.06 per head for Select close-trim yield grade 4 carcasses to $87.18 per head for close-trim Choice yield grade 1 carcasses. A group of experimental steers averaging 82% Choice and 60% yield grades 1 and 2 returned an additional $104 in the close-trim boxed market compared with selling live for $73/cwt. Another group of experimental steers averaging 21% Choice, 18% Standard, and 93% yield grades 1 and 2 had $29 per head greater return than if the steers had been sold live for $71/cwt. These comparisons emphasize the importance of knowing how cattle will potentially grade before selecting an alternative marketing strategy. This prior knowledge is most important when the spread in price between Choice and Select is high. Producers need to learn more about their cattle to predict how the cattle may grade for a specified value-based market.

Effect of Frame Size and Hormone Implant on Performance and Carcass Characteristics of Finishing Yearling Heifers: Returns to a Value-Based Market

Four groups of yearling heifers representing different frame sizes—small, medium, and large Angus and medium Simmental—were fed high-grain finishing diets to average Low Choice quality grade. Half the heifers were implanted with estrogen and trenbolone acetate. Backfat and ribeye area were measured by ultrasound four times during the study to assess growth of muscle and fat. Increasing frame size resulted in increased feed intake, greater rates of gain, and a trend towards reduced feed conversion. Greater returns would have been realized from each of the four groups had they been sold in a premium market based on yield grade rather than the conventional grade and yield market. Increasing frame size resulted in greater returns to the value-based market. Implants increased rate of gain and improved feed conversion but did not result in significantly greater returns to the value-based market compared with the grade and yield market. Ribeye area and backfat increased with body weight and time on feed. Increase in ribeye area was linear with time, whereas accumulation of backfat was exponential. Rate of increase in area of ribeye tended to increase and backfat tended to decrease as frame size increased. Implants increased rate of increase in ribeye area but had no effect on rate of deposition of subcutaneous fat. Equations describing growth of ribeye area and backfat for each group predicted average growth for the heifers but did not predict growth of individual heifers. Final carcass yield grade was related to initial thickness of backfat but not to initial ribeye area. These results indicate that the type of cattle selected to be fed for a premium market based on yield grade is important to the success of the program. More work is needed to develop growth equations from ultrasound measurements, but ultrasound will likely be a useful tool in selecting feeder cattle for a value-based market.

Educational Expansion and Persistent Inequalities of Education: Utilizing the Subjective Expected Utility Theory to Explain the Increasing Participation Rates in Upper Secondary School in the Federal Republic Of Germany

This investigation attempts to answer the question why more and more parents have chosen the Gymnasium for their children's secondary school education in post‐war West Germany. Based on the theory of subjective expected utility, the crucial mechanisms of parental educational decisions have been emphasized. From this perspective it is assumed that increasing educational motivation coupled with changes in the subjective evaluation of the cost–benefit of education were important conditions for an increasing participation in upper secondary schools. These were, however, in turn, the result of educational expansion. The empirical analyses for three time‐periods in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s confirm these assumptions to a large degree. Additionally, empirical evidence was found to suggest that in addition to the intentions of parents and the educational career of their children, structural moments of educational expansion and their own inertia played an important role in the pupils' transition from one educational level to the next. Finally, evidence was found that persistent class‐specific educational inequality stems from a constant balance in the relative cost–benefit advantages between social classes as well as from an increasing difference of primary origin effect between social classes in the realization of their educational choice.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

ANALYSIS OF THE CORYNEBACTERIUM PARVUM-INDUCED DECLINE OF MURINE NATURAL KILLER CELL-MEDIATED CYTOTOXICITY

Treatment of mice with the immunomodulating agent, Corynebacterium parvum (C. parvum), was shown to result in a severe and long-lasting depression of splenic natural killer (NK) cell-mediated cytotoxicity 5-21 days post-inoculation. Because NK cells have been implicated in immunosurveillance against malignancy (due to their spontaneous occurrence and rapid reactivity to a variety of histological types of tumors), as well as in resistance to established tumors, this decreased activity was of particular concern, since this effect is contrary to that which would be considered therapeutically desirable in cancer treatment (i.e. a potentiation of antitumor effector functions, including NK cell activity, would be expected to lead to a more effective destruction of malignant cells). Therefore, an analysis of the mechanism of this decline of splenic NK cell activity in C.parvum treated mice was undertaken.^ From in vitro co-culturing experiments, it was found that low NK-responsive C. parvum splenocytes were capable of reducing the normally high-reactivity of cells from untreated syngeneic mice to YAC-1 lymphoma, suggesting the presence of NK-directed suppressor cells in C. parvum treated animals. This was further supported by the demonstration of normal levels of cytotoxicity in C. parvum splenocyte preparations following Ficoll-Hypaque separation, which coincided with removal of the NK-suppressive capabilities of these cells. The T cell nature of these regulatory cells was indicated by (1) the failure of C. parvum to cause a reduction of NK cell activity, or the generation of NK-directed suppressor cells in T cell-deficient athymic mice, (2) the removal of C. parvum-induced suppression by T cell-depleting fractionation procedures or treatments, and (3) demonstration of suppression of NK cell activity by T cell-enriched C. parvum splenocytes. These studies suggest, therefore, that the eventual reduction of suppression by T cell elimination and/or inhibition, may result in a promotion of the antitumor effectiveness of C. parvum due to the contribution of "freed" NK effector cell activity.^ However, the temporary suppression of NK cell activity induced by C. parvum (reactivity of treated mice returns to normal levels within 28 days after C. parvum injection), may in fact be favorable in some situations, e.g. in bone marrow transplantation cases, since NK cells have been suggested to play a role also in the process of bone marrow graft rejection.^ Therefore, the discriminate use of agents such as C. parvum may allow for the controlled regulation of NK cell activity suggested to be necessary for the optimalization of therapeutic regimens. ^

Comment: Earnings Returns to Education in Urban China: A Note on Testing Differences among Groups

Comment on Wu and Xie, ASR, June 2003

Expected impact of applying new 2013 AHA/ACC cholesterol guidelines criteria on the recommended lipid target achievement after acute coronary syndromes.

BACKGROUND 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines on the treatment of cholesterol advised to tailor high-intensity statin after ACS, while previous ATP-III recommended titration of statin to reach low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets. We simulated the impact of this change of paradigm on the achievement of recommended targets. METHODS Among a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized for ACS from 2009 to 2012 at four Swiss university hospitals, we analyzed 1602 patients who survived one year after recruitment. Targets based on the previous guidelines approach was defined as (1) achievement of LDL-C target < 1.8 mmol/l, (2) reduction of LDL-C ≥ 50% or (3) intensification of statin in patients who did not reach LDL-C targets. Targets based on the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines approach was defined as the maximization of statin therapy at high-intensity in patients aged ≤75 years and moderate- or high-intensity statin in patients >75 years. RESULTS 1578 (99%) patients were prescribed statin at discharge, with 1120 (70%) at high-intensity. 1507 patients (94%) reported taking statin at one year, with 909 (57%) at high-intensity. Among 482 patients discharged with sub-maximal statin, intensification of statin was only observed in 109 patients (23%). 773 (47%) patients reached the previous LDL-C targets, while 1014 (63%) reached the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines targetsone year after ACS (p value < 0.001). CONCLUSION The application of the new 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines criteria would substantially increase the proportion of patients achieving recommended lipid targets one year after ACS. Clinical trial number, NCT01075868.

Expected Shortfall is jointly elicitable with Value at Risk - Implications for backtesting

In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the recent result of Fissler and Ziegel (2015) that ES is jointly elicitable with Value at Risk.

Differentiating the Multipoint Expected Improvement for Optimal Batch Design

This work deals with parallel optimization of expensive objective functions which are modelled as sample realizations of Gaussian processes. The study is formalized as a Bayesian optimization problem, or continuous multi-armed bandit problem, where a batch of q > 0 arms is pulled in parallel at each iteration. Several algorithms have been developed for choosing batches by trading off exploitation and exploration. As of today, the maximum Expected Improvement (EI) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) selection rules appear as the most prominent approaches for batch selection. Here, we build upon recent work on the multipoint Expected Improvement criterion, for which an analytic expansion relying on Tallis’ formula was recently established. The computational burden of this selection rule being still an issue in application, we derive a closed-form expression for the gradient of the multipoint Expected Improvement, which aims at facilitating its maximization using gradient-based ascent algorithms. Substantial computational savings are shown in application. In addition, our algorithms are tested numerically and compared to state-of-the-art UCB-based batchsequential algorithms. Combining starting designs relying on UCB with gradient-based EI local optimization finally appears as a sound option for batch design in distributed Gaussian Process optimization.